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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Lions165 of 174 plays carry both curves
(1:34) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 84-C.Davis for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +11.0 for TitansExpected points +5.64 for TitansThe model had Lions 21 points higher than the market did.play 33
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 1:34TEN +11% win prob(1:34) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 84-C.Davis for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:38TEN +7% win prob(1:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 11-M.Jones for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:13DET +6% win prob(13:13) 22-D.Henry right tackle to TEN 35 for -4 yards (94-A.Bryant).
1st · 14:26TEN +5% win prob(14:26) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 22-D.Henry pushed ob at TEN 33 for 6 yards (24-A.Oruwariye).
1st · 12:37TEN +5% win prob(12:37) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 81-J.Smith to DET 46 for 19 yards (26-D.Harmon).
3rd · 9:29DET +5% win prob(9:29) 88-T.Hockenson right end to TEN 20 for 1 yard (51-D.Long). Tennessee challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 88-T.Hockenson right end to TEN 21 for no gain (51-D.Long, 50-D.Roberson). FUMBLES (50-D.Roberson), RECOVERED by TEN-98-J.Simmons at TEN 20.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Corey Davis's 75-yard touchdown catch with 1:34 left in the 1st put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
4th2:11Darrynton Evans·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+725–46
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryTitans
Lions1–7Titans
430Total yards468
6.6Yards per play7.3
57%Success rate64%
58%Third-down rate90%
3Red-zone touchdowns5
8Explosive plays8
26First downs28
0Sacks taken1
3Turnovers0
The read
Titans ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Lions, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.80 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Lions: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.49Titans: +0.49 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.45Lions: +0.45 expected points added per play
+0.80Titans: +0.80 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.38Lions: −0.38 expected points added per play
+0.24Titans: +0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 65 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Titans’s 64 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Lions 4, Titans 7.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.49 expected points added per play vs 0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 13 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.3 vs their 9.7%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Titans12.5%
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDET's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.4%, 6.3 points below their season mean of 9.7% and 1.3 times their own 4.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
76Oday AboushiG · Every snap100%65 snaps
66Joe DahlG · Every snap100%65 snaps
73Jonah JacksonG · Every snap100%65 snaps
68Taylor DeckerT · Every snap100%65 snaps
11Marvin JonesWR · Full-time89%58 snaps
9Matthew StaffordQB · Full-time86%56 snaps
88T.J. HockensonTE · Full-time80%52 snaps
12Mohamed SanuWR · Heavy rotation65%42 snaps
32D'Andre SwiftRB · Heavy rotation65%42 snaps
67Matt NelsonT · Heavy rotation51%33 snaps
72Halapoulivaati VaitaiT · Heavy rotation51%33 snaps
83Jesse JamesTE · Rotational49%32 snaps
87Quintez CephusWR · Rotational45%29 snaps
80Danny AmendolaWR · Rotational42%27 snaps
28Adrian PetersonRB · Rotational25%16 snaps
39Jamal AgnewWR · Situational15%10 snaps
4Chase DanielQB · Situational14%9 snaps
86Hunter BryantTE · Situational11%7 snaps
33Kerryon JohnsonRB · Situational11%7 snaps
45Jason CabindaMLB · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Frank RagnowCDarryl RobertsCBLogan StenbergGKareem MartinOLBJonathan WilliamsRBTyrell CrosbyTKenny GolladayWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
David BloughQB
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
72David QuessenberryG · Every snap100%68 snaps
64Nate DavisG · Every snap100%68 snaps
71Dennis KellyT · Full-time96%65 snaps
60Ben JonesC · Full-time96%65 snaps
76Rodger SaffoldG · Full-time96%65 snaps
17Ryan TannehillQB · Full-time96%65 snaps
81Jonnu SmithTE · Full-time93%63 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Full-time84%57 snaps
84Corey DavisWR · Heavy rotation78%53 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Heavy rotation63%43 snaps
85MyCole PruittTE · Heavy rotation56%38 snaps
13Cameron BatsonWR · Rotational31%21 snaps
86Anthony FirkserTE · Rotational25%17 snaps
41Khari BlasingameFB · Situational19%13 snaps
32Darrynton EvansRB · Situational19%13 snaps
15Nick WestbrookWR · Situational13%9 snaps
62Aaron BrewerC · Situational12%8 snaps
28Jeremy McNicholsRB · Situational12%8 snaps
75Jamil DouglasG · Situational4%3 snaps
78Marshall NewhouseT · Situational4%3 snaps
5Logan WoodsideQB · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Daniel MunyerCKristian FultonCBLarrell MurchisonDTBrooks ReedOLBD'Onta ForemanRBKenny VaccaroSSGeoff SwaimTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Tannehill pass+16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:34) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 84-C.Davis for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 1:34 · Titans · 1st & 10 at TEN 25 · gained 75 · +5.64 EP · +16.0% win probability
163 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 93 yards from the TEN 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.27
Success rate
55%
Yards
895
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.3967%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR30+0.4247%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR16+0.4050%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.1850%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.7143%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.020%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Lions0 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Lions0Titans6
Lions0Titans7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Lions 3
Lions6Titans7
Lions7Titans7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Titans 1
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Lions7Titans13
Lions7Titans14
Touchdown3 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Lions 31 to the Lions 37
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 42 to the Titans 43
Lions7Titans20
Lions7Titans21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Titans 7 to the Lions 17
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Titans 1
Lions9Titans21
Drive ended2 plays, from the Titans 3 to the Titans 5
Lions15Titans21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 45 to the Titans 2
Lions15Titans24
Field goal12 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Lions 20
3rd quarter39 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost14 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Titans 21
Punt9 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 46
Lions18Titans24
Field goal7 plays, from the Lions 7 to the Titans 35
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Titans 17 to the Lions 41
4th quarter47 plays
Lions18Titans30
Lions18Titans32
Touchdown3 plays, from the Lions 36 to the Lions 3
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 31
Lions18Titans38
Lions18Titans39
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 34 to the Lions 1
Lions24Titans39
Lions25Titans39
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 40 to the Titans 6
Lions25Titans45
Lions25Titans46
Touchdown15 plays, from the Lions 45 to the Lions 2
Intercepted4 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 41
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
