2020 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 20, 2020 · Nissan Stadium

Detroit Lions

Tennessee TitansWinner

TEN -9.5 ✓O 54.5 ✓Titans closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 21.

Tennessee Titans 46–25 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 1:34, TEN +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 1:34DET — TEN TEN ball · 1st & 10TEN 75%

(1:34) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 84-C.Davis for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 1:34TEN +11% win prob(1:34) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 84-C.Davis for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 1:38TEN +7% win prob(1:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 11-M.Jones for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 13:13DET +6% win prob(13:13) 22-D.Henry right tackle to TEN 35 for -4 yards (94-A.Bryant).
Q1 · 14:26TEN +5% win prob(14:26) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 22-D.Henry pushed ob at TEN 33 for 6 yards (24-A.Oruwariye).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Titans
Offensive plays	65	64
Total yards	430	468 (edge)
Yards per play	6.6	7.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.13	0.49 (edge)
Success rate	57%	64% (edge)
Dropback rate	62%	45%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.45	0.80 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.38	0.24 (edge)
Third downs	7/12	9/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	8
First downs gained on snaps	26	28 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	1
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.49 expected points added per play vs 0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

21/27, 273 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

23.8 expected points added · +15.4% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

22/32, 252 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

14.3 expected points added · +8.8% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

24 att, 147 yds, 1 TD

5.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

D'Andre SwiftRB

15 att, 67 yds, 2 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Marvin JonesWR

10/12 for 112 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 8.3 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Corey DavisWR

4/6 for 110 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 25	14	75	6:20	Touchdown
2	DET	DET 25	16	75	7:06	Touchdown
3	TEN	TEN 25	3	75	0:12	Touchdown
4	DET	DET 31	10	26	3:40	Punt
5	TEN	TEN 7	9	70	3:14	Touchdown
6	DET	DET 25	10	72	5:16	Fumble
7	TEN	TEN 3	2	-3	0:41	Turnover on downs
8	DET	DET 45	7	55	2:29	Touchdown
9	TEN	TEN 28	9	57	1:02	Turnover on downs
10	DET	DET 25	12	64	5:38	Fumble
11	TEN	TEN 20	9	25	3:24	Punt
12	DET	DET 7	6	46	1:49	Turnover on downs
13	TEN	TEN 17	11	85	4:39	Touchdown
14	DET	DET 25	5	16	2:28	Turnover on downs
15	TEN	DET 34	7	39	3:02	Touchdown
16	DET	DET 40	8	60	2:37	Touchdown
17	TEN	DET 45	12	45	4:16	Touchdown
18	DET	DET 25	4	16	0:35	Interception
19	TEN	TEN 40	3	0	1:32	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 85 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	22/32	252	1	0	0	14.3
Chase Daniel	5/6	55	0	1	0	1.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
D'Andre Swift	15	67	4.5	2	-0.7
Adrian Peterson	6	23	3.8	0	-0.1
Matthew Stafford	2	12	6.0	0	-0.0
Chase Daniel	1	11	11.0	0	0.8
Jamal Agnew	1	7	7.0	0	0.5
C.J. Moore	1	3	3.0	0	-2.6
T.J. Hockenson	1	0	0.0	0	-5.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marvin Jones	10	12	112	1	32%	8.3
Hunter Bryant	1	2	44	0	5%	2.1
Mohamed Sanu	4	5	38	0	14%	4.4
Quintez Cephus	1	3	36	0	8%	1.5
Danny Amendola	3	4	20	0	11%	-1.4
T.J. Hockenson	2	4	18	0	11%	1.0
D'Andre Swift	4	5	15	0	14%	-0.1
Jamal Agnew	1	1	13	0	3%	1.0
Jesse James	1	1	11	0	3%	0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Duron Harmon	4	5	0.0	0
Austin Bryant	3	3	0.0	0
John Penisini	1	4	0.0	0
Reggie Ragland	1	3	0.0	0
Alexander Myres	4	0	0.0	1
Jahlani Tavai	1	3	0.0	0
Amani Oruwariye	4	0	0.0	0
Jayron Kearse	1	2	0.0	1
Romeo Okwara	3	0	1.0	0
Jarrad Davis	2	1	0.0	0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	21/27	273	3	0	1	23.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	24	147	6.1	1	5.2
Darrynton Evans	8	30	3.8	0	0.1
Ryan Tannehill	3	21	7.0	2	2.5
Logan Woodside	3	-3	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Corey Davis	4	6	110	1	23%	7.1
Jonnu Smith	5	5	52	0	19%	5.5
A.J. Brown	5	6	44	1	23%	6.1
Darrynton Evans	2	2	27	1	8%	5.3
Anthony Firkser	1	1	20	0	4%	3.0
MyCole Pruitt	1	2	10	0	8%	0.4
Derrick Henry	2	2	5	0	8%	-0.6
Jeremy McNichols	1	1	5	0	4%	0.2
Cameron Batson	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Malcolm Butler	8	1	0	0
Kevin Byard	3	5	1	2
Rashaan Evans	4	3	0	0
David Long Jr.	1	6	0	1
Amani Hooker	3	2	0	0
Joshua Kalu	2	2	0	0
Harold Landry	1	3	0	0
DaQuan Jones	3	0	0	0
Desmond King	1	1	0	0
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	2	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -9.5
Closing total: 54.5
DET moneyline: +325
TEN moneyline: -389

Titans closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 21.

Total closed 54.5; the game landed 71 — over by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 46°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: DET 7 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches: Darrell Bevell vs Mike Vrabel