For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Texans153 of 161 plays carry both curves
(2:29) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton to HOU 3 for 41 yards (32-L.Johnson).
Swing +24.7 for ColtsExpected points +3.99 for ColtsThe model had Texans 4 points higher than the market did.play 142
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:29IND +25% win prob(2:29) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton to HOU 3 for 41 yards (32-L.Johnson).
4th · 3:21IND +13% win prob(3:21) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to HOU 34 for 2 yards (41-Z.Cunningham, 50-T.Adams).
4th · 4:49HOU +12% win prob(4:49) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to HOU 42 for -2 yards (41-Z.Cunningham, 91-C.Watkins).
4th · 7:30IND +10% win prob(7:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 16-K.Coutee for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:28HOU +7% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 16-K.Coutee to IND 2 for 13 yards (53-D.Leonard). FUMBLES (53-D.Leonard), RECOVERED by IND-58-B.Okereke at IND -6. Touchback.
4th · 13:36IND +6% win prob(13:36) 3-R.Blankenship 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Zach Pascal's 5-yard touchdown catch with 1:53 left in the 4th put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th1:53Zach Pascal·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip RiversLead never changed again+720–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryColts
Texans3–6Colts
425Total yards351
6.3Yards per play6.8
57%Success rate56%
53%Third-down rate55%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays9
22First downs20
5Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
Colts ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.15Texans: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.28Colts: +0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.20Texans: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.31Colts: +0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Texans: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.25Colts: +0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 67 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Colts’s 52 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Texans 5, Colts 4.
NoteTexans outgained Colts 425-351 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
IND's pass rate over expected turned over: −15.0 pts in week 14 against +1.5 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.9 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Colts14.3%
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was HOU's early-down pass rate, 72.0% against a season mean of 66.3% — and HOU swings 5.8 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
73Zach FultonG · Every snap100%69 snaps
78Laremy TunsilT · Every snap100%69 snaps
76Brent QvaleT · Every snap100%69 snaps
4Deshaun WatsonQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
66Nick MartinC · Every snap100%69 snaps
13Brandin CooksWR · Every snap99%68 snaps
17Chad HansenWR · Full-time91%63 snaps
16Keke CouteeWR · Full-time80%55 snaps
31David JohnsonRB · Full-time80%55 snaps
63Roderick JohnsonT · Heavy rotation75%52 snaps
88Jordan AkinsTE · Heavy rotation58%40 snaps
71Tytus HowardT · Rotational28%19 snaps
87Darren FellsTE · Rotational26%18 snaps
85Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational25%17 snaps
81Kahale WarringTE · Situational17%12 snaps
38Buddy HowellRB · Situational14%10 snaps
40Scottie PhillipsRB · Situational6%4 snaps
11Steven MitchellWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
John ReidCBPhillip GainesCBAndrew BrownNTJosh McCownQBC.J. ProsiseRBDuke JohnsonRBCharlie HeckT
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Rivers pass+23% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:29) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton to HOU 3 for 41 yards (32-L.Johnson).
Q4 2:29 · Colts · 2nd & 20 at HOU 44 · gained 41 · +3.99 EP · +22.7% win probability
151 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 81 yards from the IND 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
50%
Yards
775
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.2371%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.4169%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.0833%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.0165%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.2980%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 23 to the Texans 43
Texans0Colts6
Texans0Colts7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Colts 19 to the Texans 5
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Texans 23 to the Colts 49
Texans0Colts13
Texans0Colts14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Texans 42 to the Texans 11
The period ended4 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 22
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Colts 47
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 9 to the Colts 35
Texans6Colts14
Texans7Colts14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Colts 38
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 15 to the Colts 34
Texans10Colts14
Field goal16 plays, from the Texans 19 to the Colts 5
3rd quarter33 plays
Texans10Colts17
Field goal14 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Texans 17
Texans13Colts17
Field goal15 plays, from the Texans 32 to the Colts 7
The period ended4 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 49
4th quarter47 plays
Texans13Colts20
Field goal4 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Texans 35
Texans19Colts20
Texans20Colts20
Touchdown12 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Colts 9
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Texans20Colts26
Texans20Colts27
Touchdown16 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Texans 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Fumble lost13 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Colts 15
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
