2020 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 20, 2020 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Houston Texans

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

IND -7.5 no coverU 52.5 ✓DomeColts closed -7.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Indianapolis Colts 27–20. Biggest swing: Q4 2:29, IND +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:29HOU — IND IND ball · 2nd & 20IND 64%

(2:29) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton to HOU 3 for 41 yards (32-L.Johnson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:29IND +25% win prob(2:29) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton to HOU 3 for 41 yards (32-L.Johnson).
Q4 · 3:21IND +13% win prob(3:21) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to HOU 34 for 2 yards (41-Z.Cunningham, 50-T.Adams).
Q4 · 4:49HOU +12% win prob(4:49) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to HOU 42 for -2 yards (41-Z.Cunningham, 91-C.Watkins).
Q4 · 7:30IND +10% win prob(7:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 16-K.Coutee for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Colts
Offensive plays	67	52
Total yards	425 (edge)	351
Yards per play	6.3	6.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.15	0.28 (edge)
Success rate	57% (edge)	56%
Dropback rate	73%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20	0.31 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03	0.25 (edge)
Third downs	8/15	6/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	20
Sacks taken	5	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Texans outgained Colts 425–351 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

33/41, 373 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

13.3 expected points added · +16.4% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Philip RiversQB

22/28, 228 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.7 expected points added · +7.1% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

16 att, 83 yds, 1 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Nyheim Miller-HinesRB

5 att, 43 yds, 0 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

David JohnsonRB

11/11 for 106 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Zach PascalWR

5/6 for 79 yds, 2 TD

21% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 23	7	14	3:32	Punt
2	IND	IND 19	11	81	5:39	Touchdown
3	HOU	HOU 23	7	21	2:35	Fumble
4	IND	HOU 42	5	42	2:22	Touchdown
5	HOU	HOU 20	10	33	4:09	Punt
6	IND	IND 9	6	26	3:48	Punt
7	HOU	HOU 21	8	84	4:09	Touchdown
8	IND	IND 15	6	19	2:03	Punt
9	HOU	HOU 19	12	66	1:43	Turnover on downs
10	IND	IND 25	14	58	6:33	Turnover on downs
11	HOU	HOU 32	13	64	7:08	Turnover on downs
12	IND	IND 25	7	40	2:48	Turnover on downs
13	HOU	HOU 20	12	80	6:06	Touchdown
14	IND	IND 25	14	85	5:38	Touchdown
15	HOU	HOU 25	10	63	1:28	Fumble
16	IND	IND 20	1	0	0:19	End of game

0 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 85 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	33/41	373	2	0	5	13.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Johnson	8	27	3.4	-2.2
Deshaun Watson	6	25	4.2	4.7
Buddy Howell	5	22	4.4	0.1
Scottie Phillips	2	9	4.5	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
David Johnson	11	11	106	0	29%	6.0
Brandin Cooks	6	7	59	0	18%	3.6
Chad Hansen	2	3	55	1	8%	5.1
Keke Coutee	5	7	53	1	18%	-0.4
Jordan Akins	5	6	50	0	16%	2.8
Kahale Warring	2	2	32	0	5%	2.8
Pharaoh Brown	1	1	11	0	3%	1.3
Scottie Phillips	1	1	7	0	3%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tyrell Adams	5	3	0.0	0
Zach Cunningham	6	1	0.0	0
Vernon Hargreaves	6	0	0.0	1
Keion Crossen	1	4	0.0	0
Lonnie Johnson	3	2	0.0	0
A.J. Moore	2	2	0.0	0
Eric Murray	2	2	0.0	1
Charles Omenihu	1	0	1.0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	22/28	228	2	0	1	9.7
Jacoby Brissett	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	16	83	5.2	1	2.4
Nyheim Miller-Hines	5	43	8.6	0	1.4
Jacoby Brissett	1	2	2.0	0	1.8
Philip Rivers	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zach Pascal	5	6	79	2	21%	8.5
T.Y. Hilton	4	6	71	0	21%	4.6
Michael Pittman	2	3	19	0	10%	-0.0
Mo Alie-Cox	2	2	14	0	7%	-0.4
Jack Doyle	2	2	14	0	7%	1.7
Jonathan Taylor	4	5	12	0	17%	-2.4
Nyheim Miller-Hines	2	3	11	0	10%	-1.1
Trey Burton	1	2	8	0	7%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Shaquille Leonard	6	6	0.0	0
Kenny Moore	6	1	0.0	0
Khari Willis	6	1	0.0	0
Xavier Rhodes	6	0	0.0	0
Anthony Walker	4	1	0.0	0
Bobby Okereke	4	1	0.0	1
DeForest Buckner	3	1	3.0	0
Denico Autry	2	1	1.5	0
T.J. Carrie	1	1	0.0	0
Justin Houston	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -7.5
Closing total: 52.5
HOU moneyline: +311
IND moneyline: -370

Colts closed -7.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 52.5; the game landed 47 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: HOU 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Romeo Crennel vs Frank Reich

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.