For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2020 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 20, 2020 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
JaguarsJacksonville14
BY 26final margin
RavensBaltimore40
Jacksonville Jaguars 14 at Baltimore Ravens 40. Final.
Ravens -13 ✓O 49.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 15
Baltimore Ravens 40, Jaguars 14 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 11:55, 1st and 10, on Josh Jones — 3.2 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:55 · 1st and 10
Josh Jones
Jaguars
(11:55) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle intended for 15-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jones at JAX 2. 29-J.Jones to JAX 30 for 28 yards (8-L.Jackson). PENALTY on JAX-26-J.Wilson, Illegal Blindside Block, 1 yard, enforced at JAX 2.
Ravens closed -13 and covered, winning by 26.
Baltimore Ravens 40–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:55, Jaguars +3.2% win probability on one snap.
3.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Marquise BrownJaguarsQ1 14:17(14:17) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 15-M.Brown to BAL 46 for 10 yards (27-C.Claybrooks).
2.2pts
J.K. DobbinsRavensQ1 10:51(10:51) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins right end to BAL 39 for 7 yards (47-J.Schobert; 44-M.Jack).
2.8pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.22 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.40 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.03 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Ravens won this one — 5 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Jaguars at 2 touchdowns on 3 trips.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Jaguars152 of 161 plays carry both curves
(11:55) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle intended for 15-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jones at JAX 2. 29-J.Jones to JAX 30 for 28 yards (8-L.Jackson). PENALTY on JAX-26-J.Wilson, Illegal Blindside Block, 1 yard, enf
Swing −3.2 for RavensExpected points −2.87 for RavensThe model had Jaguars 25 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:55JAX +3% win prob(11:55) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle intended for 15-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jones at JAX 2. 29-J.Jones to JAX 30 for 28 yards (8-L.Jackson). PENALTY on JAX-26-J.Wilson, Illegal Blindside Block, 1 yard, enforced at JAX 2.
1st · 10:51BAL +3% win prob(10:51) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins right end to BAL 39 for 7 yards (47-J.Schobert; 44-M.Jack).
1st · 14:17JAX +2% win prob(14:17) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 15-M.Brown to BAL 46 for 10 yards (27-C.Claybrooks).
1st · 8:04BAL +2% win prob(8:04) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 89-M.Andrews to JAX 32 for 18 yards (26-J.Wilson).
1st · 13:06BAL +2% win prob(13:06) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards right guard to JAX 47 for 4 yards (26-J.Wilson).
1st · 12:28BAL +1% win prob(12:28) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left end ran ob at JAX 36 for 11 yards (37-T.Herndon).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matt Judon's safety with 11:01 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:01Matt Judon·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball backLead never changed again+20–2
Ravens ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Jaguars: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.29Ravens: +0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.19Jaguars: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.39Ravens: +0.39 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.40Jaguars: −0.40 expected points added per play
+0.22Ravens: +0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 56 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Ravens’s 62 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 3, Ravens 5.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
JAX's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, was the highest of the 20 team-games charted in week 15 — 33.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 75.0% in week 7.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 14.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 31.7 points.
JAX's pass rate over expected turned over: +6.8 pts in week 14 against −6.9 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
JAX's sack or hit rate turned over: 28.0% in week 14 against 7.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
JAX's early-down pass rate turned over: 75.0% in week 14 against 58.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Ravens20.0%
right on their number · +2.4 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteJAX's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 64.3 points above their season mean of 35.7% and 2.0 times their own 31.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass−10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:55) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle intended for 15-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jones at JAX 2. 29-J.Jones to JAX 30 for 28 yards (8-L.Jackson). PENALTY on JAX-26-J.Wilson, Illegal Blindside Block, 1 yard, enforced at JAX 2.
Q1 11:55 · Ravens · 1st & 10 at JAX 36 · gained nothing · -2.87 EP · −10.4% win probability
150 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 86 yards from the BAL 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
40%
Yards
676
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.1264%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.3360%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.1550%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR13+0.0631%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR8-0.1113%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.2450%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.2960%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.8020%
Jaguars0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Jaguars 36
Jaguars0Ravens2
Drive ended2 plays, from the Jaguars 1 to the Jaguars 3
Jaguars0Ravens8
Jaguars0Ravens9
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Jaguars 4
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Ravens 46
The period ended5 plays, from the Jaguars 49 to the Jaguars 13
2nd quarter51 plays
Jaguars0Ravens15
Jaguars0Ravens16
Touchdown3 plays, from the Jaguars 7 to the Jaguars 2
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 36
Jaguars0Ravens19
Field goal7 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Jaguars 27
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Jaguars 29 to the Ravens 43
Jaguars0Ravens25
Jaguars0Ravens26
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 43 to the Jaguars 11
Punt9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 37
No good3 plays, from midfield to the Jaguars 39
3rd quarter37 plays
Jaguars6Ravens26
Jaguars7Ravens26
Touchdown13 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Ravens 17
Jaguars7Ravens32
Jaguars7Ravens33
Touchdown12 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Jaguars 5
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Ravens 8
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter39 plays
Jaguars7Ravens39
Jaguars7Ravens40
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 18 to the Jaguars 3
Punt6 plays
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Jaguars 48 to the Jaguars 23
Jaguars13Ravens40
Jaguars14Ravens40
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 34 to the Ravens 13
The period ended5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 30
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Jaguarscategory by categoryRavens
Jaguars0
Ravens2
