2020 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 20, 2020 · M&T Bank Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

Baltimore RavensWinner

BAL -13 ✓O 49.5 ✓Ravens closed -13 and covered, winning by 26.

Baltimore Ravens 40–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:55, JAX +3% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 11:55JAX — BAL BAL ball · 1st & 10BAL 88%

(11:55) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle intended for 15-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jones at JAX 2. 29-J.Jones to JAX 30 for 28 yards (8-L.Jackson). PENALTY on JAX-26-J.Wilson, Illegal Blindside Block, 1 yard, enf

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 11:55JAX +3% win prob(11:55) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle intended for 15-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jones at JAX 2. 29-J.Jones to JAX 30 for 28 yards (8-L.Jackson). PENALTY on JAX-26-J.Wilson, Illegal Blindside Block, 1 yard, enforced at JAX 2.
Q1 · 10:51BAL +3% win prob(10:51) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins right end to BAL 39 for 7 yards (47-J.Schobert; 44-M.Jack).
Q1 · 14:17JAX +2% win prob(14:17) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 15-M.Brown to BAL 46 for 10 yards (27-C.Claybrooks).
Q1 · 8:04BAL +2% win prob(8:04) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 89-M.Andrews to JAX 32 for 18 yards (26-J.Wilson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Ravens
Offensive plays	56	62
Total yards	267	411 (edge)
Yards per play	4.8	6.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.03	0.29 (edge)
Success rate	36%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	45%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.19	0.39 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.40	0.22 (edge)
Third downs	5/12	7/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

17/22, 243 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

15.4 expected points added · +12.8% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Gardner MinshewQB

22/29, 226 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

4.6 expected points added · +17.1% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

J.K. DobbinsRB

14 att, 64 yds, 1 TD

3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Gus EdwardsRB

9 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Marquise BrownWR

6/7 for 98 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Mark AndrewsTE

5/5 for 66 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 25	7	39	3:18	Interception
2	JAX	JAX 1	2	-1	0:45	Turnover on downs
3	BAL	BAL 32	9	68	4:22	Touchdown
4	JAX	JAX 25	10	24	4:45	Turnover on downs
5	BAL	JAX 49	7	49	2:36	Touchdown
6	JAX	JAX 25	8	9	3:31	Punt
7	BAL	BAL 32	6	5	2:59	Turnover on downs
8	JAX	JAX 29	9	28	4:28	Turnover on downs
9	BAL	BAL 43	9	57	1:56	Touchdown
10	JAX	JAX 25	6	1	0:54	Punt
11	BAL	50	2	6	0:26	Turnover on downs
12	JAX	JAX 25	12	80	5:51	Touchdown
13	BAL	BAL 25	12	75	4:34	Touchdown
14	JAX	JAX 25	9	66	3:59	Fumble
15	BAL	BAL 14	11	73	5:50	Touchdown
16	JAX	JAX 25	5	9	1:47	Punt
17	BAL	JAX 48	8	34	4:03	Turnover on downs
18	JAX	JAX 34	7	51	2:12	Touchdown
19	BAL	BAL 25	4	5	1:44	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 80 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Gardner Minshew	22/29	226	2	0	5	4.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Robinson	16	35	2.2	-5.9
Dare Ogunbowale	2	17	8.5	0.5
Gardner Minshew	2	9	4.5	0.1
Laviska Shenault Jr.	2	1	0.5	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Chark	4	5	53	0	19%	4.1
Tyler Eifert	3	4	51	0	15%	3.0
Laviska Shenault Jr.	5	6	43	0	22%	-0.4
Keelan Cole	2	2	22	0	7%	4.1
James Robinson	3	3	18	1	11%	1.5
Chris Conley	1	3	13	1	11%	-0.9
Dare Ogunbowale	1	1	8	0	4%	1.8
Collin Johnson	1	1	8	0	4%	0.6
James O'Shaughnessy	1	1	6	0	4%	-0.0
Devine Ozigbo	1	1	4	0	4%	0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Joe Schobert	6	5	0.0	0	0
Myles Jack	7	3	0.0	0	1
Jarrod Wilson	9	0	0.0	0	0
Adam Gotsis	3	1	0.0	0	1
Dawuane Smoot	3	0	1.0	0	0
Tre Herndon	2	1	0.0	0	0
Josh Jones	2	0	0.0	1	1
Joe Giles-Harris	2	0	0.0	0	0
Andrew Wingard	2	0	0.0	0	0
Chris Claybrooks	1	1	0.0	0	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	17/22	243	3	1	1	15.4
Tyler Huntley	2/4	7	0	0	0	-4.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
J.K. Dobbins	14	64	4.6	1	3.9
Gus Edwards	9	42	4.7	0	0.7
Lamar Jackson	10	35	3.5	1	1.5
Tyler Huntley	4	18	4.5	0	0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquise Brown	6	7	98	0	27%	2.5
Mark Andrews	5	5	66	1	19%	5.2
Gus Edwards	2	2	36	0	8%	1.9
J.K. Dobbins	1	1	17	0	4%	1.5
Dez Bryant	1	3	11	1	12%	1.6
Patrick Ricard	2	3	10	0	12%	-0.5
Justice Hill	1	1	8	0	4%	-0.4
Miles Boykin	1	2	4	1	8%	0.3
Willie Snead	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
Eric Tomlinson	0	1	0	0	4%	-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Marlon Humphrey	6	1	0.0	0
Patrick Queen	4	2	1.0	0
Tyus Bowser	2	3	0.0	0
DeShon Elliott	1	4	0.0	0
Brandon Williams	4	1	0.0	0
Yannick Ngakoue	3	0	2.0	0
Chuck Clark	2	1	0.0	0
Anthony Averett	2	1	0.0	1
Tramon Williams	3	0	0.0	1
Matt Judon	2	0	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -13
Closing total: 49.5
JAX moneyline: +564
BAL moneyline: -746

Ravens closed -13 and covered, winning by 26.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 54 — over by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 39°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Ronald Torbert
Rest: JAX 7 days · BAL 6 days
Coaches: Doug Marrone vs John Harbaugh