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Kansas City Chiefs 32 at New Orleans Saints 29. Final.
Chiefs -2.5 ✓O 53.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 15
Kansas City Chiefs 32, Saints 29 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q3 13:29, 2nd and 14, on Latavius Murray — 12.7 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 13:29 · 2nd and 14
Latavius Murray
Saints
(13:29) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 28-L.Murray for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -1, YAC 25
Dome
Chiefs closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Kansas City Chiefs 32–29 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 13:29, Saints +12.7% win probability on one snap.
12.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Sammy WatkinsChiefsQ3 11:00(11:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 14-S.Watkins pushed ob at NO 21 for 20 yards (23-M.Lattimore). Pass 6, YAC 14
9.1pts
Mecole HardmanChiefsQ3 8:31(8:31) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 17-M.Hardman for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Jordan]. Pass 5, YAC 0
8.5pts
What separated them
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 9 of 17 on third down, against Saints at 1 of 11 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.18 expected points per carry.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.05 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.13 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Chiefs190 of 198 plays carry both curves
(13:29) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 28-L.Murray for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -1, YAC 25
Swing +12.7 for SaintsExpected points +2.90 for SaintsThe model had Saints 9 points higher than the market did.play 107
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 13:29NO +13% win prob(13:29) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 28-L.Murray for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -1, YAC 25
3rd · 11:00NO +9% win prob(11:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 14-S.Watkins pushed ob at NO 21 for 20 yards (23-M.Lattimore). Pass 6, YAC 14
3rd · 8:31NO +8% win prob(8:31) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 17-M.Hardman for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Jordan]. Pass 5, YAC 0
1st · 9:39KC +8% win prob(9:39) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 84-L.Humphrey INTERCEPTED by 38-L.Sneed at NO 39. 38-L.Sneed ran ob at NO 36 for 3 yards.
4th · 2:12NO +8% win prob(2:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 84-L.Humphrey for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 17, YAC 0
2nd · 0:20NO +8% win prob(:20) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to KC 13, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-D.Robinson to KC 6 for -7 yards (52-C.Robertson). FUMBLES (52-C.Robertson), touched at KC -7, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mecole Hardman's 5-yard touchdown catch with 8:31 left in the 3rd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:24Tyreek Hill·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+77–0
2nd15:00Travis Kelce·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+714–0
Chiefs ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Chiefs: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.13Saints: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.07Chiefs: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.11Saints: −0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Chiefs: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.18Saints: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 90 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Saints’s 53 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 5, Saints 5.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 30 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.8 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Saints21.8%
inside their normal wobble · +4.8 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was KC's early-down pass rate, 54.2% against a season mean of 62.8% — and KC swings 10.4 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Brees pass+15% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(13:29) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 28-L.Murray for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -1, YAC 25
Q3 13:29 · Saints · 2nd & 14 at KC 24 · gained 24 · +2.90 EP · +14.8% win probability
188 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 198 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 198 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 80 yards from the KC 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
198 of 198 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
198
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
41%
Yards
698
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61-0.0270%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.1477%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.2441%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.1043%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.0767%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.3617%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.1420%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
198 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
198 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter47 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 43
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 23 to the Saints 28
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 34 to the Chiefs 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Saints 22 to the Saints 27
Chiefs6Saints0
Chiefs7Saints0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 36 to the Saints 5
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 31
The period ended11 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Saints 4
2nd quarter53 plays
Chiefs13Saints0
Chiefs14Saints0
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 28
Punt4 plays
Chiefs14Saints6
Chiefs14Saints7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Chiefs 1
Punt12 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Saints 41
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 9 to the Saints 22
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 36 to the Chiefs 47
Chiefs14Saints9
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 7 to the Saints 36
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter46 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.0 seconds
Chiefs14Saints15
Touchdown8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Chiefs 20
Chiefs20Saints15
Chiefs21Saints15
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Saints 5
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 27
Punt11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Saints 42
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 17 to the Saints 21
The period ended7 plays, from the Chiefs 41 to the Saints 32
4th quarter52 plays
Chiefs27Saints15
Chiefs29Saints15
Touchdown5 plays, from the Saints 29 to the Saints 13
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 30
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Chiefs 22 to the Chiefs 34
Chiefs29Saints21
Chiefs29Saints22
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 14
Chiefs32Saints22
Field goal11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Saints 4
Chiefs32Saints28
Chiefs32Saints29
Touchdown11 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Chiefs 17
The period ended11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Saints 38
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -2.5
Closing total
53.5
Chiefs moneyline
-137
Saints moneyline
+124
Chiefs closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 53.5; the game landed 61 — over by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Chiefs 7 days · Saints 7 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Sean Payton
3rd · 14:17NO +7% win prob(14:17) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete deep left to 7-T.Hill. PENALTY on KC-38-L.Sneed, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at KC 39 - No Play.
3rd · 15:00NO +7% win prob(15:00) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 10-T.Smith to 50 for 25 yards (50-W.Gay) [95-C.Jones]. PENALTY on KC-95-C.Jones, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at 50. Pass 17, YAC 8
