2020 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 20, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

New Orleans Saints

KC -2.5 ✓O 53.5 ✓DomeChiefs closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Kansas City Chiefs 32–29 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 13:29, NO +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 13:29KC — NO NO ball · 2nd & 14KC 65%

(13:29) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 28-L.Murray for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -1, YAC 25

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 13:29NO +13% win prob(13:29) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 28-L.Murray for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -1, YAC 25
Q3 · 11:00NO +9% win prob(11:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 14-S.Watkins pushed ob at NO 21 for 20 yards (23-M.Lattimore). Pass 6, YAC 14
Q3 · 8:31NO +8% win prob(8:31) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 17-M.Hardman for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Jordan]. Pass 5, YAC 0
Q1 · 9:39KC +8% win prob(9:39) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 84-L.Humphrey INTERCEPTED by 38-L.Sneed at NO 39. 38-L.Sneed ran ob at NO 36 for 3 yards.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Saints
Offensive plays	90	53
Total yards	416 (edge)	285
Yards per play	4.6	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.05 (edge)	-0.13
Success rate	48% (edge)	36%
Dropback rate	61%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	-0.11
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.18
Third downs	9/17 (edge)	1/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	30 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

26/47, 254 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

0.9 expected points added · -6.0% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

15/34, 234 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

-4.0 expected points added · -24.6% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB

14 att, 79 yds, 0 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Le'Veon BellRB

15 att, 62 yds, 1 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Emmanuel SandersWR

4/5 for 76 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

8/12 for 68 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 25	7	18	2:24	Punt
2	NO	NO 23	4	5	0:51	Punt
3	KC	KC 34	5	-5	1:26	Punt
4	NO	NO 22	3	5	0:46	Interception
5	KC	NO 36	8	36	3:15	Touchdown
6	NO	NO 25	5	6	1:19	Punt
7	KC	KC 20	12	80	5:01	Touchdown
8	NO	NO 25	5	-6	1:34	Punt
9	KC	KC 30	4	0	0:23	Punt
10	NO	NO 34	8	66	2:40	Touchdown
11	KC	KC 25	10	34	4:46	Punt
12	NO	NO 9	6	18	2:30	Punt
13	KC	KC 36	7	9	1:49	Punt
14	NO	NO 7	5	29	1:13	Punt
15	NO	—	1	0	0:03	End of half
16	NO	NO 25	6	51	1:44	Touchdown
17	KC	KC 25	11	75	4:53	Touchdown
18	NO	NO 25	5	2	1:00	Punt
19	KC	KC 25	9	25	2:56	Punt
20	NO	NO 17	4	4	0:59	Punt
21	KC	KC 41	11	48	4:44	Touchdown
22	NO	NO 25	5	5	0:42	Punt
23	KC	KC 22	5	3	2:06	Fumble
24	NO	KC 25	4	25	1:13	Touchdown
25	KC	KC 25	11	71	5:25	Turnover on downs
26	NO	NO 25	10	75	2:12	Touchdown
27	KC	KC 25	8	22	2:06	End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 80 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	26/47	254	3	0	4	0.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	14	79	5.6	0	2.7
Le'Veon Bell	15	62	4.1	1	-1.5
Patrick Mahomes	7	37	5.3	0	2.8
Darrel Williams	3	5	1.7	0	-0.2
Tyreek Hill	1	1	1.0	0	-0.5
Mecole Hardman	1	-5	-5.0	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	8	12	68	1	27%	4.7
Sammy Watkins	4	6	60	0	14%	4.7
Tyreek Hill	6	10	53	1	23%	2.4
Demarcus Robinson	2	3	27	0	7%	3.2
Mecole Hardman	3	9	22	1	20%	-2.8
Le'Veon Bell	1	1	14	0	2%	0.9
Deon Yelder	1	1	6	0	2%	-0.2
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	1	2	4	0	5%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ben Niemann	5	3	0.0	0	0
Charvarius Ward	4	0	0.0	0	0
Daniel Sorensen	2	2	0.0	0	2
Anthony Hitchens	1	2	0.0	0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	1	2	1.0	1	3
Tyrann Mathieu	2	0	0.0	0	0
James Winchester	1	1	0.0	0	0
Bashaud Breeland	2	0	0.0	0	2
Byron Pringle	1	0	0.0	0	0
Rashad Fenton	1	0	0.0	0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	15/34	234	3	1	1	-4.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	11	54	4.9	0	-0.9
Latavius Murray	4	3	0.8	0	-3.0
Taysom Hill	2	3	1.5	1	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Emmanuel Sanders	4	5	76	0	15%	5.1
Alvin Kamara	3	6	40	1	18%	0.9
Jared Cook	2	5	29	0	15%	1.8
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	2	4	29	1	12%	-2.8
Latavius Murray	2	3	26	1	9%	1.4
Tre'Quan Smith	1	2	25	0	6%	0.7
Michael Burton	1	1	9	0	3%	0.8
Taysom Hill	0	2	0	0	6%	-2.3
Tommylee Lewis	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8
Juwan Johnson	0	4	0	0	12%	-4.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Demario Davis	6	9	0
Malcolm Jenkins	10	3	0
Janoris Jenkins	4	2	0
Kwon Alexander	3	2	1
David Onyemata	1	4	0
Marshon Lattimore	4	1	1
Shy Tuttle	2	3	1
Sheldon Rankins	2	2	1
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	2	2	3
Malcolm Roach	1	3	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -2.5
Closing total: 53.5
KC moneyline: -137
NO moneyline: +124

Chiefs closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 53.5; the game landed 61 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: KC 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Sean Payton