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Los Angeles Chargers 30 at Las Vegas Raiders 27. Final.
Raiders -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 15
Los Angeles Chargers 30, Raiders 27 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 3:22, 4th and 5, on Daniel Carlson — 54.7 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 3:22 · 4th and 5
Daniel Carlson
Raiders
(3:22) 2-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
O 52 ✓
Dome
Raiders closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Los Angeles Chargers 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 3:22, Raiders +54.7% win probability on one snap.
54.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chris HarrisChargersQ4 2:05(2:05) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle intended for 12-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 25-C.Harris at LAC 16. 25-C.Harris to LV 33 for 51 yards (8-M.Mariota).
51.3pts
Jalen GuytonChargersOT 3:05(3:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 15-J.Guyton to LV 2 for 53 yards (22-K.Nixon) [90-J.Hankins].
42.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — 11 chunk plays, against Chargers at 5 chunk plays.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Chargers won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Raiders at 5 of 13 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chargers won this one — no giveaways, against Raiders at 1 giveaway.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.63 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at +0.39 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Chargers174 of 186 plays carry both curves
(3:22) 2-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Swing +54.7 for RaidersExpected points +0.03 for RaidersModel and market agree here.play 176
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 3:22LV +55% win prob(3:22) 2-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
4th · 2:05LAC +51% win prob(2:05) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle intended for 12-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 25-C.Harris at LAC 16. 25-C.Harris to LV 33 for 51 yards (8-M.Mariota).
Overtime · 3:05LV +42% win prob(3:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 15-J.Guyton to LV 2 for 53 yards (22-K.Nixon) [90-J.Hankins].
Overtime · 3:26LAC +37% win prob(3:26) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 45-A.Ingold (98-I.Rochell).
4th · 0:58LAC +36% win prob(:58) 4-M.Badgley 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.
Overtime · 3:47LAC +30% win prob(3:47) 28-J.Jacobs right guard to LAC 5 for -2 yards (43-M.Davis).
Overtime · 1:32
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Herbert's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 1:32 left in overtime put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Overtime3:22Daniel Carlson·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+324–27
Overtime1:32Justin Herbert·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+630–27
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryRaiders
Chargers4–4Raiders
402Total yards449
6.5Yards per play6.1
45%Success rate47%
58%Third-down rate38%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays11
22First downs26
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Chargers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.63 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.25Chargers: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.12Raiders: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.63Chargers: +0.63 expected points added per play
+0.39Raiders: +0.39 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.21Chargers: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.15Raiders: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 62 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Raiders’s 74 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 5, Raiders 5.
NoteRaiders outgained Chargers 449-402 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LV's pass rate over expected turned over: +3.5 pts in week 14 against −11.4 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
74 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Raiders14.7%
right on their number · +2.5 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLV's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -11.4 pts, 8.9 points below their season mean of -2.5 pts and 1.6 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
Daniel Carlson+55% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(3:22) 2-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
OT 3:22 · Raiders · 4th & goal at LAC 5 · gained nothing · +0.03 EP · +54.7% win probability
172 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 86 yards from the LV 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
43%
Yards
851
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.4057%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.1742%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR17+0.2847%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.1136%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.1450%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.1150%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.2243%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR4——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
Raiders0 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 32
Chargers6Raiders0
Chargers7Raiders0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chargers 22 to the Raiders 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Chargers7Raiders3
Field goal10 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chargers 2
The period ended5 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Chargers 31
2nd quarter42 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 43 to the Chargers 49
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Chargers7Raiders9
Chargers7Raiders10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 14 to the Chargers 35
Chargers10Raiders10
Field goal15 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Raiders 4
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 30
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Chargers16Raiders10
Chargers17Raiders10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Raiders 49 to the Raiders 26
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Raiders 38
Chargers17Raiders16
Chargers17Raiders17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Chargers 1
Chargers23Raiders17
Chargers24Raiders17
Touchdown17 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Raiders 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 43
4th quarter43 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Chargers24Raiders23
Chargers24Raiders24
Touchdown17 plays, from the Raiders 43 to the Chargers 2
No good7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Raiders 28
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Raiders 37 to the Chargers 21
No good7 plays, from the Raiders 33 to the Raiders 25
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Offense on the fieldSix linemen, two tight ends, one punter, one long snapper and one kickerDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backs
The period ended7 plays, from the Raiders 41 to the Chargers 47
Overtime26 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Chargers24Raiders27
Field goal16 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chargers 3
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs and two tight endsDefense on the fieldFive linemen, four linebackers and two backsIn the boxEleven defenders
Chargers30Raiders27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Raiders 1
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
