2020 Week 15 · Thu, Dec 17, 2020 · Allegiant Stadium

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

Las Vegas Raiders

LV -3.5 upsetO 52 ✓DomeRaiders closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Los Angeles Chargers 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 3:22, LV +55% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 3:22LAC — LV LV ball · 4th & 5LAC 90%

(3:22) 2-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 3:22LV +55% win prob(3:22) 2-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q4 · 2:05LAC +51% win prob(2:05) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle intended for 12-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 25-C.Harris at LAC 16. 25-C.Harris to LV 33 for 51 yards (8-M.Mariota).
OT · 3:05LV +42% win prob(3:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 15-J.Guyton to LV 2 for 53 yards (22-K.Nixon) [90-J.Hankins].
OT · 3:26LAC +37% win prob(3:26) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 45-A.Ingold (98-I.Rochell).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Raiders
Offensive plays	62	74
Total yards	402	449 (edge)
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	6.1
Expected points added / play	0.25 (edge)	0.12
Success rate	45%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	55%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.63 (edge)	0.39
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.21	-0.15 (edge)
Third downs	7/12 (edge)	5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	11 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	22	26 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Raiders outgained Chargers 449–402 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

22/32, 314 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

22.1 expected points added · +5.7% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Marcus MariotaQB

17/28, 226 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

8.4 expected points added · -2.7% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Marcus MariotaQB

9 att, 88 yds, 1 TD

11.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

26 att, 76 yds, 1 TD

-9.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Darren WallerTE

9/12 for 150 yds, 1 TD

40% of team targets · 13.5 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Jalen GuytonWR

4/6 for 91 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 25	5	7	1:35	Punt
2	LAC	LAC 22	13	78	7:29	Touchdown
3	LV	LV 25	10	70	5:01	Turnover on downs
4	LAC	LAC 26	7	28	2:26	Punt
5	LV	LV 14	8	86	4:10	Touchdown
6	LAC	LAC 25	15	71	7:27	Turnover on downs
7	LV	LV 25	5	5	0:52	Punt
8	LAC	LV 49	5	49	0:41	Touchdown
9	LV	LV 25	2	6	0:19	End of half
10	LAC	LAC 25	5	5	2:19	Punt
11	LV	LV 24	11	66	5:23	Touchdown
12	LAC	LAC 25	14	70	5:10	Touchdown
13	LV	LV 25	21	85	10:52	Touchdown
14	LAC	LAC 25	7	47	2:38	Turnover on downs
15	LV	LV 37	5	42	1:44	Interception
16	LAC	LV 33	4	0	1:01	Turnover on downs
17	LV	LV 41	6	12	0:53	Turnover on downs
18	LV	LV 25	15	70	6:42	Turnover on downs
19	LAC	LAC 25	6	54	1:49	Touchdown

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 86 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	22/32	314	2	0	1	22.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Austin Ekeler	13	60	4.6	0	-3.0
Justin Herbert	4	14	3.5	1	0.8
Kalen Ballage	8	11	1.4	1	-3.6
Joshua Kelley	2	8	4.0	0	0.2
Jalen Guyton	1	4	4.0	0	-0.2
Keenan Allen	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jalen Guyton	4	6	91	0	19%	5.0
Hunter Henry	5	7	65	1	22%	6.8
Tyron Johnson	3	5	61	1	16%	6.0
K.J. Hill	3	3	39	0	9%	2.7
Mike Williams	2	2	22	0	6%	2.1
Austin Ekeler	4	4	19	0	13%	0.7
Keenan Allen	1	3	17	0	9%	-0.0
Donald Parham	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
Gabe Nabers	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nick Vigil	6	3	1.0	0	0
Kenneth Murray	6	2	0.0	0	0
Linval Joseph	2	4	0.0	0	0
Jaylen Watkins	6	0	0.0	0	0
Isaac Rochell	1	4	0.0	0	1
Casey Hayward	5	0	0.0	0	0
Chris Harris	4	1	0.0	1	1
Joey Bosa	2	2	0.0	0	0
Rayshawn Jenkins	2	2	0.0	0	0
Uchenna Nwosu	2	2	0.0	0	0

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Marcus Mariota	17/28	226	1	1	0	8.4
Derek Carr	3/5	53	0	0	1	-0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Marcus Mariota	9	88	9.8	1	11.2
Josh Jacobs	26	76	2.9	1	-9.0
Devontae Booker	3	12	4.0	0	-0.5
Alec Ingold	1	2	2.0	0	0.3
A.J. Cole	1	0	0.0	0	-0.6
Theo Riddick	1	-5	-5.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darren Waller	9	12	150	1	40%	13.5
Nelson Agholor	4	8	49	0	27%	3.6
Josh Jacobs	3	3	38	0	10%	3.3
Foster Moreau	1	1	22	0	3%	1.9
Zay Jones	1	2	9	0	7%	-6.7
Jalen Richard	1	1	7	0	3%	-0.3
Hunter Renfrow	1	2	4	0	7%	-2.3
Alec Ingold	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Nick Kwiatkoski	5	5	0
Trayvon Mullen	8	0	1
Cory Littleton	4	3	0
Daryl Worley	4	3	1
Carl Nassib	2	3	1
Raekwon McMillan	2	3	0
Erik Harris	4	0	0
Maurice Hurst	1	2	0
Johnathan Hankins	1	2	0
Keisean Nixon	1	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LV -3.5
Closing total: 52
LAC moneyline: +156
LV moneyline: -174

Raiders closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 52; the game landed 57 — over by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: LAC 4 days · LV 4 days
Coaches: Anthony Lynn vs Jon Gruden

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.