2020 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 20, 2020 · Hard Rock Stadium

New England Patriots

Miami DolphinsWinner

NE -1.5 upsetU 40 ✓Patriots closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Miami Dolphins 22–12. Biggest swing: Q4 13:02, MIA +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 13:02NE — MIA MIA ball · 3rd & 3MIA 56%

(13:02) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa scrambles up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 13:02MIA +11% win prob(13:02) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa scrambles up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 9:58NE +11% win prob(9:58) (No Huddle) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 16-J.Meyers to NE 49 for 20 yards (25-X.Howard). FUMBLES (25-X.Howard), RECOVERED by MIA-44-E.Roberts at NE 47. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q1 · 0:04NE +11% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 15-L.Bowden INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson [50-C.Winovich] at NE -1. 27-J.Jackson to NE 4 for 5 yards (15-L.Bowden).
Q1 · 14:12NE +9% win prob(14:12) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 10-D.Byrd to NE 22 for -2 yards (53-K.Van Noy).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Dolphins
Offensive plays	52	71
Total yards	303	385 (edge)
Yards per play	5.8 (edge)	5.4
Expected points added / play	-0.10	0.19 (edge)
Success rate	42%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	62%	44%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18	0.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03	0.31 (edge)
Third downs	2/9	7/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	16	26 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Cam NewtonQB

17/27, 209 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-0.5 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

20/26, 145 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-1.9 expected points added · +6.8% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Salvon AhmedRB

23 att, 122 yds, 1 TD

4.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Matt BreidaRB

12 att, 86 yds, 0 TD

4.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Jakobi MeyersWR

7/10 for 111 yds, 0 TD

40% of team targets · -0.6 expected points added

Receiving · NE

James WhiteRB

4/4 for 52 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	5	-3	1:37	Punt
2	MIA	MIA 22	4	9	2:00	Punt
3	NE	NE 27	7	34	2:12	Punt
4	MIA	MIA 2	15	95	9:11	Interception
5	NE	NE 4	13	59	6:10	Turnover on downs
6	MIA	MIA 25	5	-1	1:59	Punt
7	NE	NE 40	8	42	2:36	Defensive touchdown
8	MIA	MIA 24	12	42	4:15	Turnover on downs
9	MIA	MIA 28	11	57	4:28	Touchdown
10	NE	NE 25	3	22	0:42	Fumble
11	MIA	NE 47	4	13	2:14	Punt
12	NE	NE 8	8	60	3:16	Turnover on downs
13	MIA	MIA 10	16	87	6:25	Touchdown
14	NE	NE 25	10	46	3:52	Turnover on downs
15	MIA	MIA 25	13	75	5:46	Touchdown
16	NE	NE 25	8	43	2:09	Turnover on downs
17	MIA	MIA 32	2	8	1:08	End of game

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 95 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a interception.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	17/27	209	0	0	3	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Sony Michel	10	74	7.4	2.7
Cam Newton	9	38	4.2	-0.5
James White	2	3	1.5	-1.0
J.J. Taylor	1	2	2.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jakobi Meyers	7	10	111	40%	-0.6
James White	4	4	52	16%	4.4
Damiere Byrd	3	4	24	16%	1.3
N'Keal Harry	1	2	12	8%	-0.7
Sony Michel	1	1	8	4%	0.4
Dalton Keene	1	2	2	8%	-1.6
Jakob Johnson	0	1	0	4%	-0.8
Devin Asiasi	0	1	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Terez Hall	10	2	0.0	0	0
Lawrence Guy	4	4	0.0	0	0
Adrian Phillips	6	1	1.0	0	0
Kyle Dugger	4	1	0.0	0	0
Devin McCourty	2	3	0.0	0	0
Shilique Calhoun	4	0	0.0	0	0
Tashawn Bower	3	1	0.0	0	1
Adam Butler	2	2	1.0	0	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	1	3	0.0	0	0
J.C. Jackson	3	1	0.0	1	1

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	20/26	145	0	1	2	-1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Salvon Ahmed	23	122	5.3	1	4.1
Matt Breida	12	86	7.2	0	4.0
Patrick Laird	2	20	10.0	0	1.9
Tua Tagovailoa	3	9	3.0	2	4.4
Lynn Bowden	1	9	9.0	0	0.6
Malcolm Perry	1	4	4.0	0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Durham Smythe	5	5	40	20%	2.4
Lynn Bowden	6	7	37	28%	-2.9
Isaiah Ford	3	3	18	12%	0.2
Mack Hollins	2	3	18	12%	1.2
Adam Shaheen	1	2	15	8%	0.4
Patrick Laird	2	2	12	8%	0.8
Salvon Ahmed	1	3	5	12%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Elandon Roberts	5	4	0.0	0
Jerome Baker	7	1	1.0	0
Zach Sieler	3	2	1.0	0
Brandon Jones	3	2	0.0	0
Xavien Howard	4	1	0.0	0
Nik Needham	2	2	0.0	0
Kyle Van Noy	2	1	0.0	1
Emmanuel Ogbah	1	2	1.0	0
Christian Wilkins	1	1	0.0	0
Shaq Lawson	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -1.5
Closing total: 40
NE moneyline: -120
MIA moneyline: +109

Patriots closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40; the game landed 34 — under by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 79°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: NE 10 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Brian Flores

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.