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2020 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 20, 2020 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
PatriotsNew England12
BY 10final margin
DolphinsMiami22
New England Patriots 12 at Miami Dolphins 22. Final.
Patriots -1.5 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 15
Miami Dolphins 22, Patriots 12 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 13:02, 3rd and 3, on Tua Tagovailoa — 10.8 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 13:02 · 3rd and 3
Tua Tagovailoa
Dolphins
(13:02) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa scrambles up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
U 40 ✓
Patriots closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Miami Dolphins 22–12. Biggest swing: Q4 13:02, Dolphins +10.8% win probability on one snap.
10.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.C. JacksonPatriotsQ1 0:04(:04) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 15-L.Bowden INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson [50-C.Winovich] at NE -1. 27-J.Jackson to NE 4 for 5 yards (15-L.Bowden).
10.7pts
Jakobi MeyersDolphinsQ3 9:58(9:58) (No Huddle) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 16-J.Meyers to NE 49 for 20 yards (25-X.Howard). FUMBLES (25-X.Howard), RECOVERED by MIA-44-E.Roberts at NE 47. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
10.7pts
What separated them
Red zone
Dolphins won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Patriots at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Dolphins won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Patriots at 2 of 9 on third down.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Dolphins won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.10 expected points per snap.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.31 expected points per carry, against Patriots at +0.03 expected points per carry.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Patriots154 of 163 plays carry both curves
(13:02) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa scrambles up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +10.8 for DolphinsExpected points +2.30 for DolphinsThe model had Dolphins 8 points higher than the market did.play 126
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 13:02MIA +11% win prob(13:02) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa scrambles up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 9:58NE +11% win prob(9:58) (No Huddle) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 16-J.Meyers to NE 49 for 20 yards (25-X.Howard). FUMBLES (25-X.Howard), RECOVERED by MIA-44-E.Roberts at NE 47. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 0:04NE +11% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 15-L.Bowden INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson [50-C.Winovich] at NE -1. 27-J.Jackson to NE 4 for 5 yards (15-L.Bowden).
1st · 14:12NE +9% win prob(14:12) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 10-D.Byrd to NE 22 for -2 yards (53-K.Van Noy).
3rd · 3:21MIA +9% win prob(3:21) (Shotgun) 26-S.Ahmed right end pushed ob at NE 47 for 31 yards (31-J.Jones).
3rd · 0:44MIA +9% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 32-P.Laird right guard to NE 22 for 12 yards (21-A.Phillips).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tua Tagovailoa's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 13:02 left in the 4th put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd8:55Nick Folk·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+33–0
2nd4:20Nick Folk·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+36–0
Dolphins ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Patriots: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.19Dolphins: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.18Patriots: −0.18 expected points added per play
+0.03Dolphins: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Patriots: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.31Dolphins: +0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 52 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 71 at 44%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 1, Dolphins 4.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIA's pass rate over expected turned over: +7.4 pts in week 14 against −8.1 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
MIA's early-down pass rate turned over: 73.8% in week 14 against 40.4% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points.
NE's pass rate over expected turned over: −19.5 pts in week 14 against −2.5 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −2.5 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Dolphins9.4%
inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -8.1 pts, 10.7 points below their season mean of 2.6 pts and 1.7 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Newton pass−12% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(9:58) (No Huddle) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 16-J.Meyers to NE 49 for 20 yards (25-X.Howard). FUMBLES (25-X.Howard), RECOVERED by MIA-44-E.Roberts at NE 47. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q3 9:58 · Patriots · 2nd & 6 at NE 29 · gained 18 · -3.80 EP · −11.8% win probability
152 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 95 yards from the MIA 2 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
45%
Yards
688
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR50+0.1242%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.1566%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20-0.0245%
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR14+0.1743%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Dolphins3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins3 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 22 to the Dolphins 31
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 27 to the Dolphins 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted15 plays, from the Dolphins 2 to the Patriots 3
2nd quarter45 plays
Patriots3Dolphins0
Field goal16 plays, from the Patriots 4 to the Dolphins 26
Punt6 plays
Patriots6Dolphins0
Field goal8 plays, from the Patriots 40 to the Dolphins 18
No good14 plays, from the Dolphins 24 to the Patriots 34
3rd quarter43 plays
Patriots6Dolphins6
Patriots6Dolphins7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Dolphins 28 to the Patriots 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 29
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 47 to the Patriots 42
Patriots9Dolphins7
Field goal10 plays, from the Patriots 8 to the Dolphins 27
The period ended12 plays, from the Dolphins 10 to the Patriots 22
4th quarter42 plays
Patriots9Dolphins13
Patriots9Dolphins15
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 19 to the Patriots 3
Patriots12Dolphins15
Field goal11 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Dolphins 24
Patriots12Dolphins21
Patriots12Dolphins22
Touchdown14 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Patriots 1
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Dolphins 23
The period ended3 plays, from the Dolphins 32 to the Dolphins 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
