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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 25.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 42 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Jets158 of 169 plays carry both curves
Q4 · 4:00Jets 23 — Rams 20LA ball · 4th & 4LA 52%
Jets 48%Rams 52%
(4:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 81-G.Everett (20-M.Maye).
Swing −21.3 for RamsExpected points −2.95 for RamsThe model had Jets 13 points higher than the market did.play 158
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 4:00NYJ +21% win prob(4:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 81-G.Everett (20-M.Maye).
4th · 5:47NYJ +15% win prob(5:47) 7-B.Mann punts 50 yards to LA 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 14-N.Webster to NYJ 43 for 34 yards (7-B.Mann).
3rd · 8:34LA +11% win prob(8:34) 21-F.Gore left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 0:17LA +11% win prob(:17) 17-R.Woods left end pushed ob at NYJ 21 for 40 yards (46-N.Hewitt).
2nd · 11:52NYJ +10% win prob(11:52) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 13 for -7 yards (97-N.Shepherd).
3rd · 11:24LA +10% win prob(11:24) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 89-C.Herndon to LA 6 for 22 yards (20-J.Ramsey).
2nd · 0:03LA +9% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ty Johnson's 18-yard touchdown catch with 6:33 left in the 1st put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:33Ty Johnson·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam DarnoldLead never changed again+77–0
2nd12:49Sam Ficken·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+310–0
2nd7:41Sam Ficken·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+313–0
2nd0:03Matt Gay·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+313–3
3rd6:14Robert Woods·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+720–10
3rd1:42Sam Ficken·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+323–10
4th13:52Tyler Higbee·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+723–17
4th6:40Matt Gay·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+323–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryRams
Jets6–2Rams
292Total yards303
4.8Yards per play5.4
43%Success rate34%
44%Third-down rate18%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays3
16First downs15
2Sacks taken3
0Turnovers1
The read
Jets ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Jets: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.26Rams: −0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Jets: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.30Rams: −0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Jets: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.19Rams: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 61 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Rams’s 56 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Jets 4, Rams 3.
NoteRams outgained Jets 303-292 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's pass rate over expected turned over: −7.9 pts in week 14 against +3.4 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
LA's sack or hit rate turned over: 29.0% in week 14 against 8.6% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
LA's early-down pass rate turned over: 40.0% in week 14 against 61.4% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · +7.9 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Rams8.6%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.5 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 3.4 pts, 7.6 points above their season mean of -4.2 pts and 1.4 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
76George FantT · Every snap100%65 snaps
68Josh AndrewsG · Every snap100%65 snaps
67Pat ElfleinG · Every snap100%65 snaps
60Connor McGovernC · Every snap100%65 snaps
77Mekhi BectonT · Every snap100%65 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
19Breshad PerrimanWR · Full-time97%63 snaps
11Denzel MimsWR · Full-time89%58 snaps
82Jamison CrowderWR · Heavy rotation75%49 snaps
89Christopher HerndonTE · Heavy rotation66%43 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass−16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 81-G.Everett (20-M.Maye).
Q4 4:00 · Rams · 4th & 4 at NYJ 37 · gained nothing · -2.95 EP · −16.2% win probability
156 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 75 yards from the LA 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
35%
Yards
592
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.1357%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.3975%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.0544%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.7814%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Jets0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Jets0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 33
Jets6Rams0
Jets7Rams0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Rams 18
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 21 to the Rams 29
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Jets 28
The period ended5 plays, from the Rams 36 to the Rams 47
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Rams 38
Jets10Rams0
Field goal4 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Rams 21
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Rams 19 to the Rams 33
Jets13Rams0
Field goal5 plays, from the Rams 22 to the Rams 3
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 28
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Jets 36
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 22 to the Jets 45
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 10 to the Jets 19
Jets13Rams3
Field goal9 plays, from the Rams 39 to the Jets 27
3rd quarter39 plays
Jets19Rams3
Jets20Rams3
Touchdown15 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Rams 1
Jets20Rams9
Jets20Rams10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Jets 15
Jets23Rams10
Field goal12 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Rams 3
The period ended5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 39
4th quarter44 plays
Jets23Rams16
Jets23Rams17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Jets 21 to the Jets 3
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Jets23Rams20
Field goal12 plays, from the Rams 31 to the Jets 18
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 27
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Jets 43 to the Jets 37
The period ended11 plays, from the Jets 37 to the Rams 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -17.5
Closing total
44.5
Jets moneyline
+957
Rams moneyline
-1601
Rams closed -17.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 43 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Tony Corrente
Rest
Jets 7 days · Rams 10 days
Coaches
Adam Gase vs Sean McVay
(:03) 1-M.Gay 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
1st · 6:19NYJ +9% win prob(6:19) 23-C.Akers left tackle to LA 31 for 10 yards (20-M.Maye). PENALTY on LA-70-J.Noteboom, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 21 - No Play.
