For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Eagles194 of 205 plays carry both curves
(7:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +13.6 for CardinalsExpected points +2.86 for CardinalsThe model had Eagles 6 points higher than the market did.play 171
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 7:24ARI +14% win prob(7:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:01ARI +13% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 2-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 9:35ARI +13% win prob(9:35) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to PHI 40 for 44 yards (22-M.Epps).
4th · 14:56ARI +13% win prob(14:56) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee pass short right to 47-E.Turner to PHI 41 for 26 yards (22-M.Epps).
4th · 4:07ARI +12% win prob(4:07) (Shotgun) 2-J.Hurts pass deep left to 17-A.Jeffery pushed ob at ARI 24 for 39 yards (31-C.Banjo).
4th · 12:15PHI +12% win prob(12:15) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 19-K.Johnson.
3rd · 5:43
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
DeAndre Hopkins's 20-yard touchdown catch with 7:24 left in the 4th put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:40Cardinals·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+20–2
Cardinals ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Eagles, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Eagles: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.02Cardinals: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.18Eagles: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.16Cardinals: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.33Eagles: −0.33 expected points added per play
−0.19Cardinals: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 81 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 68 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 5, Cardinals 7.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PHI's sack or hit rate, 2.5%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 0.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 5.7% in week 5.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 14.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
ARI's sack or hit rate turned over: 34.4% in week 14 against 16.4% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 15 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −15.3 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−1.88× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Cardinals16.4%
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.5%, 15.3 points below their season mean of 17.8% and 1.9 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
73Isaac SeumaloG · Every snap100%84 snaps
67Nate HerbigG · Every snap100%84 snaps
69Matt PryorG · Every snap100%84 snaps
68Jordan MailataT · Every snap100%84 snaps
2Jalen HurtsQB · Every snap99%83 snaps
62Jason KelceC · Every snap99%83 snaps
88Dallas GoedertTE · Full-time88%74 snaps
26Miles SandersRB · Full-time82%69 snaps
86Zach ErtzTE · Heavy rotation75%63 snaps
17Alshon JefferyWR · Heavy rotation62%52 snaps
18Jalen ReagorWR · Heavy rotation55%46 snaps
84Greg WardWR · Heavy rotation52%44 snaps
80Quez WatkinsWR · Rotational33%28 snaps
13Travis FulghamWR · Rotational31%26 snaps
35Boston ScottRB · Situational18%15 snaps
4Jake ElliottK · Situational1%1 snap
45Rick LovatoLS · Situational1%1 snap
66Ross PierschbacherC · Situational1%1 snap
74Luke JurigaC · Situational1%1 snap
64Brett TothT · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Darius SlayCBGrayland ArnoldDBNate SudfeldQBJason HuntleyRBJohn HightowerWRJ.J. Arcega-WhitesideWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass+17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:07) (Shotgun) 2-J.Hurts pass deep left to 17-A.Jeffery pushed ob at ARI 24 for 39 yards (31-C.Banjo).
Q4 4:07 · Eagles · 3rd & 12 at PHI 37 · gained 39 · +4.04 EP · +16.6% win probability
192 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 205 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 205 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 86 yards from the ARI 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
205 of 205 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
205
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
39%
Yards
948
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR49-0.0757%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.0655%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.2670%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.1756%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR12-0.1167%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.0520%
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Eagles0 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
205 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
205 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Fumble lost12 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Eagles 9
Eagles0Cardinals2
Drive ended3 plays, from the Eagles 8 to the Eagles 10
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 29
Eagles0Cardinals8
Eagles0Cardinals9
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cardinals 34 to the Eagles 8
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Cardinals 48
Eagles0Cardinals15
Eagles0Cardinals16
Touchdown3 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the Cardinals 38
2nd quarter64 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Eagles6Cardinals16
Eagles7Cardinals16
Touchdown4 plays
Eagles7Cardinals19
Field goal6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Eagles 22
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to midfield
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Cardinals 17 to the Cardinals 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Eagles13Cardinals19
Eagles14Cardinals19
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 21 to the Cardinals 4
Eagles14Cardinals25
Eagles14Cardinals26
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Eagles 10
Eagles20Cardinals26
Touchdown13 plays, from the Eagles 22 to the Cardinals 3
Drive ended12 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Eagles 43
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 14 to the Cardinals 42
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Eagles 45
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 13 to the Eagles 17
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Eagles 43 to the Eagles 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Eagles26Cardinals26
Touchdown14 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Cardinals 2
The period ended4 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 33
4th quarter53 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end, one receiver, one punter, four linebackers, one long snapper and two backsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and four backsPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Cardinals 33 to the Eagles 32
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 33 to the Eagles 39
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Eagles26Cardinals32
Eagles26Cardinals33
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cardinals 14 to the Eagles 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldSix linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Eagles 24 to the Cardinals 11
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 22 to the Cardinals 31
The period ended12 plays, from the Eagles 22 to the Cardinals 31
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cardinals -6.5
Closing total
49.5
Eagles moneyline
+226
Cardinals moneyline
-259
Cardinals closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 59 — over by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Eagles 7 days · Cardinals 7 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Kliff Kingsbury
PHI +11% win prob
(5:43) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Epps at PHI 0. Touchback.
1st · 10:32PHI +10% win prob(10:32) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to PHI 5 for 4 yards (38-M.Jacquet). FUMBLES (38-M.Jacquet), RECOVERED by PHI-49-A.Singleton at PHI 8.
