2020 Week 15 · Mon, Dec 21, 2020 · Paul Brown Stadium

Pittsburgh Steelers

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

PIT -14.5 upsetO 40.5 ✓Steelers closed -14.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cincinnati Bengals 27–17. Biggest swing: Q2 10:41, PIT +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 10:41PIT — CIN PIT ball · 3rd & 1PIT 57%

(10:41) 65-J.Hawkins reported in as eligible. 24-B.Snell up the middle to PIT 44 for no gain (56-J.Bynes).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 10:41PIT +10% win prob(10:41) 65-J.Hawkins reported in as eligible. 24-B.Snell up the middle to PIT 44 for no gain (56-J.Bynes).
Q4 · 5:38CIN +10% win prob(5:38) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 18-Di.Johnson. PENALTY on CIN-22-W.Jackson III, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at CIN 12 - No Play.
Q3 · 12:48CIN +10% win prob(12:48) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 11-C.Claypool to CIN 23 for 37 yards (30-J.Bates III).
Q2 · 6:01PIT +10% win prob(6:01) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 19-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Alexander at CIN 38. 21-M.Alexander ran ob at PIT 41 for 21 yards (18-Di.Johnson). PENALTY on PIT-76-C.Okorafor, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 41.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Bengals
Offensive plays	61	55
Total yards	245 (edge)	232
Yards per play	4.0	4.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.33	-0.12 (edge)
Success rate	39%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	64%	29%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.32	-0.05 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.36	-0.14 (edge)
Third downs	4/16	4/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	11	13 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Steelers outgained Bengals 245–232 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

20/38, 170 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-10.2 expected points added · -8.8% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Ryan FinleyQB

7/13, 89 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-0.6 expected points added · +1.3% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Benny SnellRB

18 att, 84 yds, 1 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Giovani BernardRB

25 att, 83 yds, 1 TD

-4.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Diontae JohnsonWR

8/13 for 59 yds, 1 TD

34% of team targets · -0.6 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Chase ClaypoolWR

3/8 for 54 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	5	2	1:00	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 26	4	3	2:06	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 22	4	4	0:56	Punt
4	CIN	CIN 24	4	8	1:36	Punt
5	PIT	PIT 19	1	0	0:06	Fumble
6	CIN	PIT 20	6	9	4:04	Turnover on downs
7	PIT	PIT 25	5	3	1:38	Punt
8	CIN	CIN 28	5	35	1:55	Turnover on downs
9	PIT	PIT 45	3	-7	0:50	Fumble
10	CIN	PIT 38	8	38	3:44	Touchdown
11	PIT	PIT 35	11	22	6:13	Interception
12	CIN	PIT 26	4	26	1:32	Touchdown
13	PIT	PIT 25	5	12	1:51	Punt
14	CIN	CIN 26	4	5	1:23	Punt
15	PIT	PIT 28	4	4	0:58	Punt
16	CIN	CIN 16	1	0	0:08	End of half
17	CIN	CIN 25	5	2	1:26	Punt
18	PIT	PIT 33	5	67	1:27	Touchdown
19	CIN	CIN 25	5	3	1:40	Punt
20	PIT	PIT 26	10	67	5:00	Turnover on downs
21	CIN	CIN 25	5	3	1:40	Punt
22	PIT	PIT 32	4	7	1:32	Punt
23	CIN	CIN 20	10	75	5:54	Touchdown
24	PIT	PIT 25	14	64	5:49	Touchdown
25	CIN	CIN 25	8	16	3:15	Punt
26	PIT	PIT 24	4	0	0:25	Turnover on downs
27	CIN	PIT 24	4	9	1:40	Turnover on downs
28	PIT	PIT 25	2	0	0:12	End of game

0 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 75 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	20/38	170	1	1	1	-10.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Benny Snell	18	84	4.7	1	-0.7
Anthony McFarland	1	5	5.0	0	-0.4
Jaylen Samuels	1	4	4.0	0	0.0
Ben Roethlisberger	2	-1	-0.5	0	-5.2
Chase Claypool	1	-6	-6.0	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Diontae Johnson	8	13	59	1	34%	-0.6
Chase Claypool	3	8	54	0	21%	2.8
Benny Snell	3	4	23	0	11%	0.3
JuJu Smith-Schuster	3	6	15	0	16%	-8.7
Jaylen Samuels	1	1	12	0	3%	-0.0
Anthony McFarland	1	1	9	0	3%	0.7
Eric Ebron	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4
James Washington	0	3	0	0	8%	-4.8
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	1	-2	0	3%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Minkah Fitzpatrick	6	1	0.0
Avery Williamson	3	3	0.0
Marcus Allen	2	4	0.0
Cameron Heyward	3	3	0.0
Stephon Tuitt	3	2	1.0
Tyson Alualu	2	3	0.0
Alex Highsmith	3	2	0.0
T.J. Watt	4	0	1.0
Mike Hilton	2	1	0.0
Terrell Edmunds	2	1	0.0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Finley	7/13	89	1	0	2	-0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Giovani Bernard	25	83	3.3	1	-4.4
Ryan Finley	10	47	4.7	1	0.3
Samaje Perine	4	14	3.5	0	-0.9
Trayveon Williams	2	8	4.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Green	2	3	40	0	23%	0.8
Tee Higgins	3	6	31	0	46%	0.3
Giovani Bernard	1	1	14	1	8%	2.7
Drew Sample	1	1	4	0	8%	-0.1
Alex Erickson	0	1	0	0	8%	-1.5
Tyler Boyd	0	1	0	0	8%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Josh Bynes	3	5	0.0	0	0
Vonn Bell	4	2	0.0	0	0
Germaine Pratt	3	3	0.0	0	1
Mackensie Alexander	6	0	0.0	1	2
Jessie Bates	4	1	0.0	0	1
Darius Phillips	5	0	0.0	0	3
William Jackson	3	0	0.0	0	1
Carl Lawson	2	0	1.0	0	0
Mike Daniels	1	1	0.0	0	0
Mason Schreck	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -14.5
Closing total: 40.5
PIT moneyline: -942
CIN moneyline: +682

Steelers closed -14.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 44 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 43°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: PIT 8 days · CIN 8 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Zac Taylor

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.