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2020 Week 15 · Mon, Dec 21, 2020 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
SteelersPittsburgh17
BY 10final margin
BengalsCincinnati27
Pittsburgh Steelers 17 at Cincinnati Bengals 27. Final.
Steelers -14.5 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 15
Cincinnati Bengals 27, Steelers 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 10:41, 3rd and 1, on Benny Snell — 10.2 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 10:41 · 3rd and 1
Benny Snell
Bengals
(10:41) 65-J.Hawkins reported in as eligible. 24-B.Snell up the middle to PIT 44 for no gain (56-J.Bynes).
O 40.5 ✓
Steelers closed -14.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cincinnati Bengals 27–17. Biggest swing: Q2 10:41, Bengals +10.2% win probability on one snap.
10.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chase ClaypoolSteelersQ3 12:48(12:48) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 11-C.Claypool to CIN 23 for 37 yards (30-J.Bates III).
9.8pts
Ben RoethlisbergerSteelersQ4 5:38(5:38) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 18-Di.Johnson. PENALTY on CIN-22-W.Jackson III, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at CIN 12 - No Play.
10.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bengals won this one — no giveaways, against Steelers at 3 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Bengals at 3 chunk plays.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Bengals won this one — -0.12 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.33 expected points per snap.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bengals won this one — -0.14 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.36 expected points per carry.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 26.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 49 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Steelers158 of 169 plays carry both curves
(10:41) 65-J.Hawkins reported in as eligible. 24-B.Snell up the middle to PIT 44 for no gain (56-J.Bynes).
Swing +10.2 for BengalsExpected points +1.60 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 38 points higher than the market did.play 53
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 10:41PIT +10% win prob(10:41) 65-J.Hawkins reported in as eligible. 24-B.Snell up the middle to PIT 44 for no gain (56-J.Bynes).
4th · 5:38CIN +10% win prob(5:38) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 18-Di.Johnson. PENALTY on CIN-22-W.Jackson III, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at CIN 12 - No Play.
3rd · 12:48CIN +10% win prob(12:48) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 11-C.Claypool to CIN 23 for 37 yards (30-J.Bates III).
2nd · 6:01PIT +10% win prob(6:01) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 19-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Alexander at CIN 38. 21-M.Alexander ran ob at PIT 41 for 21 yards (18-Di.Johnson). PENALTY on PIT-76-C.Okorafor, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 41.
1st · 9:22PIT +9% win prob(9:22) 7-B.Roethlisberger FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 19, RECOVERED by CIN-56-J.Bynes at PIT 20.
4th · 1:56PIT +8% win prob(1:56) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep right to 13-J.Washington [58-C.Lawson].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Austin Seibert's 34-yard field goal with 5:16 left in the 1st put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:16Austin Seibert·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.HarrisLead never changed again+30–3
4th0:16Austin Seibert·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+317–27
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryBengals
Steelers3–6Bengals
245Total yards232
4.0Yards per play4.2
39%Success rate40%
25%Third-down rate29%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays3
11First downs13
1Sacks taken2
3Turnovers0
The read
Bengals ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.33Steelers: −0.33 expected points added per play
−0.12Bengals: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.32Steelers: −0.32 expected points added per play
−0.05Bengals: −0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.36Steelers: −0.36 expected points added per play
−0.14Bengals: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 61 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Bengals’s 55 at 29%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 3, Bengals 5.
NoteSteelers outgained Bengals 245-232 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CIN's early-down pass rate, 19.5%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 15.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 49.1% in week 6.
2.6 times their own weekly swing below their number.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.2 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
CIN's pass rate over expected, −24.0 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 12.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −8.9 pts in week 14.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
55 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PIT's sack or hit rate, 37.5%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 14.4 points clear of the next team along.
A 3.2-swing turn from week 14.
16 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
high through week 15Against their seasonTendencies
CIN's sack or hit rate, 23.1%, is past their previous high of 21.4% in week 7 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 33 pts
leaned — got home · +14.4 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.88× that swing) · 16 dropbacks
Bengals23.1%
leaned — got home · +10.6 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.67× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 19.5%, 37.3 points below their season mean of 56.8% and 2.6 times their own 14.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%65 snaps
66David DeCastroG · Every snap100%65 snaps
76Chukwuma OkoraforT · Every snap100%65 snaps
7Ben RoethlisbergerQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
53Maurkice PounceyC · Every snap100%65 snaps
89Vance McDonaldTE · Full-time92%60 snaps
19JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Full-time91%59 snaps
18Diontae JohnsonWR · Full-time82%53 snaps
24Benny SnellRB · Heavy rotation78%51 snaps
60J.C. HassenauerC · Heavy rotation75%49 snaps
11Chase ClaypoolWR · Heavy rotation66%43 snaps
13James WashingtonWR · Rotational42%27 snaps
77Derwin GrayT · Rotational25%16 snaps
85Eric EbronTE · Situational15%10 snaps
38Jaylen SamuelsRB · Situational11%7 snaps
26Anthony McFarlandRB · Situational11%7 snaps
14Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Situational6%4 snaps
65Jerald HawkinsT · Situational6%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Antoine BrooksDBCassius MarshDEIsaiah BuggsDEKevin DotsonGJoshua DobbsQBJames ConnerRBKevin RaderTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Roethlisberger FUMBLES−14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(9:22) 7-B.Roethlisberger FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 19, RECOVERED by CIN-56-J.Bynes at PIT 20.
Q1 9:22 · Steelers · 1st & 10 at PIT 19 · gained nothing · -5.20 EP · −13.6% win probability
156 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 80 yards from the CIN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.15
Success rate
38%
Yards
474
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.2367%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.2335%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.036%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 27
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 26 to the Bengals 34
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 22 to the Steelers 26
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 24 to the Bengals 32
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Steelers0Bengals3
Field goal7 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 5
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 28
No good5 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Steelers 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Steelers 45 to the Steelers 48
The period ended3 plays, from the Steelers 38 to the Steelers 37
2nd quarter40 plays
Steelers0Bengals9
Steelers0Bengals10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Steelers 4
Intercepted12 plays, from the Steelers 35 to the Bengals 42
Steelers0Bengals16
Steelers0Bengals17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Steelers 14
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 32
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 26 to the Bengals 31
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 28 to the Steelers 32
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 27
Steelers6Bengals17
Steelers7Bengals17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Steelers 33 to the Bengals 23
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 28
Steelers10Bengals17
Field goal10 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Bengals 7
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 28
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 32 to the Steelers 41
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Bengals 42
4th quarter47 plays
Steelers10Bengals23
Steelers10Bengals24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bengals 47 to the Steelers 23
Steelers16Bengals24
Steelers17Bengals24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Bengals 1
Punt10 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 42
Turnover on downs5 plays
Steelers17Bengals27
Field goal7 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Steelers 15
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
