2020 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 20, 2020 · FedExField

Seattle SeahawksWinner

Washington Commanders

SEA -6 no coverU 44.5 ✓Seahawks closed -6, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Seattle Seahawks 20–15. Biggest swing: Q4 2:24, WAS +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:24SEA — WAS WAS ball · 3rd & 11SEA 85%

(2:24) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin to WAS 46 for 9 yards (50-K.Wright). PENALTY on SEA-50-K.Wright, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 46.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:24WAS +17% win prob(2:24) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin to WAS 46 for 9 yards (50-K.Wright). PENALTY on SEA-50-K.Wright, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 46.
Q4 · 1:03SEA +14% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass incomplete deep middle (26-Sq.Griffin) [94-R.Green]. Penalty on WAS-71-W.Schweitzer, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q4 · 1:08SEA +12% win prob(1:08) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins sacked at SEA 37 for -9 yards (43-C.Dunlap).
Q4 · 1:14SEA +12% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins sacked at SEA 28 for -5 yards (91-L.Collier).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Commanders
Offensive plays	50	80
Total yards	305	353 (edge)
Yards per play	6.1 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	0.00
Success rate	48% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	60%	78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04	0.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.25 (edge)	-0.10
Third downs	5/11	10/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	15	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Commanders outgained Seahawks 353–305 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Dwayne HaskinsQB

38/55, 295 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-0.2 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

18/27, 121 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-5.7 expected points added · -1.9% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Chris CarsonRB

15 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

6 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

4.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Logan ThomasTE

13/16 for 101 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

7/12 for 77 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 25	5	1	2:10	Punt
2	SEA	SEA 45	8	40	4:00	Turnover on downs
3	WAS	WAS 25	6	9	2:42	Punt
4	SEA	SEA 20	6	21	2:52	Punt
5	WAS	WAS 4	9	24	3:03	Punt
6	SEA	SEA 31	10	37	4:21	Turnover on downs
7	WAS	WAS 25	9	48	4:02	Interception
8	SEA	SEA 3	11	80	5:05	Touchdown
9	WAS	WAS 24	12	46	1:39	Turnover on downs
10	SEA	—	1	0	0:06	End of half
11	SEA	SEA 25	6	75	1:48	Touchdown
12	WAS	WAS 23	5	39	2:14	Interception
13	SEA	SEA 41	4	9	2:08	Punt
14	WAS	WAS 10	4	7	1:56	Punt
15	SEA	SEA 42	4	4	1:50	Punt
16	WAS	WAS 4	15	81	5:50	Touchdown
17	SEA	SEA 25	7	36	3:01	Interception
18	WAS	WAS 36	12	64	3:57	Touchdown
19	SEA	SEA 25	5	3	1:42	Punt
20	WAS	WAS 14	14	34	4:43	Turnover on downs
21	SEA	SEA 37	3	0	0:51	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 81 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	18/27	121	1	1	0	-5.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chris Carson	15	63	4.2	0	1.3
Carlos Hyde	2	55	27.5	1	4.1
Russell Wilson	6	52	8.7	0	4.5
Rashaad Penny	2	6	3.0	0	-0.5
David Moore	1	5	5.0	0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DK Metcalf	5	6	43	0	23%	2.0
Tyler Lockett	4	7	34	0	27%	-1.3
Jacob Hollister	2	2	17	1	8%	3.4
David Moore	2	4	10	0	15%	-0.9
Carlos Hyde	2	3	8	0	12%	-2.2
Chris Carson	2	3	6	0	12%	-5.9
Freddie Swain	1	1	3	0	4%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Bobby Wagner	7	6	0.0	0	1
Jamal Adams	7	2	1.0	0	0
K.J. Wright	8	0	0.0	0	0
D.J. Reed	4	2	0.0	1	3
Ugochukwu Amadi	6	0	0.0	0	0
Shaquill Griffin	4	0	0.0	1	2
Poona Ford	2	2	0.0	0	0
Quandre Diggs	2	2	0.0	0	1
Alton Robinson	1	2	1.0	0	0
Ryan Neal	2	0	0.0	0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dwayne Haskins	38/55	295	1	2	4	-0.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
J.D. McKissic	13	51	3.9	0	-1.3
Dwayne Haskins	3	28	9.3	0	2.2
Peyton Barber	4	5	1.3	1	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Logan Thomas	13	16	101	0	30%	4.4
Terry McLaurin	7	12	77	0	23%	5.5
J.D. McKissic	9	10	56	1	19%	2.4
Cam Sims	5	8	26	0	15%	-8.0
Isaiah Wright	2	2	15	0	4%	0.2
Steven Sims	1	2	11	0	4%	0.7
Robert Foster	1	2	9	0	4%	1.4
Peyton Barber	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Khaleke Hudson	4	4	0
Kamren Curl	6	2	0
Jeremy Reaves	2	4	0
Jimmy Moreland	2	4	0
Jon Bostic	3	3	0
Kendall Fuller	3	2	1
Ronald Darby	3	1	0
Chase Young	1	2	0
Shaun Dion Hamilton	1	1	0
Logan Thomas	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -6
Closing total: 44.5
SEA moneyline: -251
WAS moneyline: +219

Seahawks closed -6, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 35 — under by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 43°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: SEA 7 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Ron Rivera