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Seattle Seahawks 20 at Washington Commanders 15. Final.
Seahawks -6 no coverU 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 15
Seattle Seahawks 20, Commanders 15 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:24, 3rd and 11, on Terry McLaurin — 17.1 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:24 · 3rd and 11
Terry McLaurin
Commanders
(2:24) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin to WAS 46 for 9 yards (50-K.Wright). PENALTY on SEA-50-K.Wright, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 46.
Seahawks closed -6, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Seattle Seahawks 20–15. Biggest swing: Q4 2:24, Commanders +17.1% win probability on one snap.
17.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dwayne HaskinsSeahawksQ4 1:08(1:08) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins sacked at SEA 37 for -9 yards (43-C.Dunlap).
11.7pts
Dwayne HaskinsSeahawksQ4 1:03(1:03) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass incomplete deep middle (26-Sq.Griffin) [94-R.Green]. Penalty on WAS-71-W.Schweitzer, Offensive Holding, declined.
13.7pts
What separated them
Red zone
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Seahawks at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.25 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.10 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 10 of 17 on third down, against Seahawks at 5 of 11 on third down.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — 1 giveaway, against Commanders at 2 giveaways.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Seahawks165 of 177 plays carry both curves
(2:24) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin to WAS 46 for 9 yards (50-K.Wright). PENALTY on SEA-50-K.Wright, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 46.
Swing +17.1 for CommandersExpected points +2.32 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 5 points higher than the market did.play 164
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:24WAS +17% win prob(2:24) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin to WAS 46 for 9 yards (50-K.Wright). PENALTY on SEA-50-K.Wright, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 46.
4th · 1:03SEA +14% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass incomplete deep middle (26-Sq.Griffin) [94-R.Green]. Penalty on WAS-71-W.Schweitzer, Offensive Holding, declined.
4th · 1:08SEA +12% win prob(1:08) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins sacked at SEA 37 for -9 yards (43-C.Dunlap).
4th · 1:14SEA +12% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins sacked at SEA 28 for -5 yards (91-L.Collier).
4th · 2:00WAS +9% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short middle to 15-S.Sims to SEA 23 for 11 yards (28-U.Amadi) [99-Da.Moore].
4th · 7:21WAS +8% win prob(7:21) 7-D.Haskins pass short right to 41-J.McKissic for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jason Myers's 43-yard field goal with 8:55 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:55Jason Myers·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.OttLead never changed again+33–0
2nd10:55Jason Myers·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+36–0
2nd1:49Jacob Hollister·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+713–0
2nd0:11Dustin Hopkins·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+313–3
Seahawks ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Seahawks: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.00Commanders: +0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.04Seahawks: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.03Commanders: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.25Seahawks: +0.25 expected points added per play
−0.10Commanders: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 50 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Commanders’s 80 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 2, Commanders 2.
NoteCommanders outgained Seahawks 353-305 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 15Against their seasonFourth Down
SEA's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 1 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 15.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 17.3 points.
WAS's early-down pass rate turned over: 47.7% in week 14 against 75.4% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
61 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · −2.0 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 62 dropbacks
Commanders10.0%
inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 29.8 points below their season mean of 29.8% and 1.7 times their own 17.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
68Damien LewisG · Every snap100%57 snaps
74Cedric OgbuehiT · Every snap100%57 snaps
77Ethan PocicC · Every snap100%57 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Every snap100%57 snaps
76Duane BrownT · Every snap100%57 snaps
16Tyler LockettWR · Full-time91%52 snaps
14DK MetcalfWR · Full-time89%51 snaps
66Jordan SimmonsG · Heavy rotation77%44 snaps
86Jacob HollisterTE · Heavy rotation70%40 snaps
32Chris CarsonRB · Heavy rotation70%40 snaps
89Will DisslyTE · Heavy rotation65%37 snaps
83David MooreWR · Rotational37%21 snaps
18Freddie SwainWR · Rotational28%16 snaps
70Mike IupatiG · Situational23%13 snaps
30Carlos HydeRB · Situational18%10 snaps
84Colby ParkinsonTE · Situational14%8 snaps
20Rashaad PennyRB · Situational11%6 snaps
44Nick BelloreFB · Situational7%4 snaps
Inactive · 5
Jonathan BullardDEDamarious RandallFSPhil HaynesGBrandon ShellTPenny HartWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Haskins pass−17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:03) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass incomplete deep middle (26-Sq.Griffin) [94-R.Green]. Penalty on WAS-71-W.Schweitzer, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q4 1:03 · Commanders · 4th & 24 at SEA 37 · gained nothing · -0.56 EP · −16.7% win probability
163 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 97 yards from the SEA 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
42%
Yards
655
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58+0.0579%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.2042%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24-0.1463%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.2056%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Seahawks0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 28
Seahawks3Commanders0
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 45 to the Commanders 20
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 36
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 41
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 4 to the Commanders 28
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Seahawks6Commanders0
Field goal11 plays, from the Seahawks 46 to the Commanders 22
Intercepted9 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Seahawks 27
Seahawks12Commanders0
Seahawks13Commanders0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Seahawks 3 to the Commanders 10
Seahawks13Commanders3
Field goal16 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Seahawks 28
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Seahawks19Commanders3
Seahawks20Commanders3
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to midfield
Intercepted6 plays, from the Commanders 23 to the Seahawks 43
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 41 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 10 to the Commanders 17
Punt5 plays
The period ended11 plays, from the Commanders 4 to the Seahawks 16
4th quarter50 plays
Seahawks20Commanders9
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 13 to the Seahawks 1
Intercepted7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Commanders 39
Seahawks20Commanders15
Touchdown12 plays, from the Commanders 36 to the Seahawks 6
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw8.5 seconds
The period ended16 plays, from the Commanders 14 to the Seahawks 23
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -6
Closing total
44.5
Seahawks moneyline
-251
Commanders moneyline
+219
Seahawks closed -6, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 35 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 39°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 10 mph out of the south; light drizzle.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Seahawks 7 days · Commanders 7 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Ron Rivera
4th · 3:39
SEA +7% win prob
(3:39) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins sacked at WAS 30 for -8 yards (98-A.Robinson). FUMBLES (98-A.Robinson), and recovers at WAS 27.
4th · 11:24SEA +5% win prob(11:24) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 32-C.Carson INTERCEPTED by 94-D.Payne (90-M.Sweat) at WAS 36. 94-D.Payne to WAS 36 for no gain (68-D.Lewis).
Seahawkscategory by categoryCommanders
Seahawks3
Commanders0
