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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:35 AM ET · 16 to play
San Francisco 49ers 33 at Dallas Cowboys 41. Final.
49ers -4 upsetO 46 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 15
Dallas Cowboys 41, 49ers 33 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:51, 2nd and 9, on Anthony Brown — 19.6 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:51 · 2nd and 9
Anthony Brown
Cowboys
(2:51) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle intended for 11-B.Aiyuk INTERCEPTED by 30-A.Brown [79-J.Hamilton] at DAL 40. 30-A.Brown ran ob at SF 46 for 14 yards (30-J.Wilson).
Dome
49ers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Dallas Cowboys 41–33. Biggest swing: Q4 2:51, Cowboys +19.6% win probability on one snap.
19.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
CeeDee LambCowboysQ3 8:06(8:06) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb pushed ob at SF 12 for 45 yards (33-T.Moore).
15.1pts
Donovan WilsonCowboysQ4 10:34(10:34) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short left intended for 81-J.Reed INTERCEPTED by 37-D.Wilson at SF 28. 37-D.Wilson to SF 28 for no gain (81-J.Reed).
14.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 4 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — 1 giveaway, against 49ers at 3 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cowboys at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Cowboys at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on 49ers183 of 194 plays carry both curves
(2:51) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle intended for 11-B.Aiyuk INTERCEPTED by 30-A.Brown [79-J.Hamilton] at DAL 40. 30-A.Brown ran ob at SF 46 for 14 yards (30-J.Wilson).
Swing +19.6 for CowboysExpected points +4.48 for CowboysThe model had Cowboys 6 points higher than the market did.play 170
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:51SF +20% win prob(2:51) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle intended for 11-B.Aiyuk INTERCEPTED by 30-A.Brown [79-J.Hamilton] at DAL 40. 30-A.Brown ran ob at SF 46 for 14 yards (30-J.Wilson).
3rd · 8:06DAL +15% win prob(8:06) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb pushed ob at SF 12 for 45 yards (33-T.Moore).
4th · 10:34SF +14% win prob(10:34) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short left intended for 81-J.Reed INTERCEPTED by 37-D.Wilson at SF 28. 37-D.Wilson to SF 28 for no gain (81-J.Reed).
4th · 2:36DAL +14% win prob(2:36) 20-T.Pollard right tackle for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:11DAL +13% win prob(12:11) 1-H.Niswander punts 52 yards to SF 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 13-R.James to SF 22 for 9 yards (92-D.Armstrong). FUMBLES (92-D.Armstrong), RECOVERED by DAL-92-D.Armstrong at SF 22.
4th · 4:34SF +12% win prob(4:34) 4-N.Mullens pass short left to 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 34 for 5 yards (26-J.Lewis). PENALTY on SF-69-M.McGlinchey, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SF 34.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Greg Zuerlein's 46-yard field goal with 10:12 left in the 4th put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
49ers ahead 5–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cowboys, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.0849ers: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.00Cowboys: +0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.1449ers: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.00Cowboys: −0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.0149ers: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.01Cowboys: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 81 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 58 at 66%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Cowboys 5.
Note49ers outgained Cowboys 458-291 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
DAL's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 20 team-games charted in week 15 — 20.0 points clear of the next team along.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 29.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Cowboys15.2%
right on their number · +2.3 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 42.7 points below their season mean of 42.7% and 1.5 times their own 29.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Mullens pass−18% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:51) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle intended for 11-B.Aiyuk INTERCEPTED by 30-A.Brown [79-J.Hamilton] at DAL 40. 30-A.Brown ran ob at SF 46 for 14 yards (30-J.Wilson).
Q4 2:51 · 49ers · 2nd & 9 at SF 49 · gained nothing · -4.48 EP · −18.2% win probability
181 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 194 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 194 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 75 yards from the SF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
194 of 194 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
194
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
40%
Yards
749
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.1077%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.1381%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR19-0.0547%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.3133%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR18+0.2828%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
194 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
194 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter48 plays
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 34
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 32 to the Cowboys 40
49ers0Cowboys6
49ers0Cowboys7
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 22 to the 49ers 1
Fumble lost4 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 27
49ers0Cowboys13
49ers0Cowboys14
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the 49ers 3
49ers6Cowboys14
49ers7Cowboys14
Touchdown17 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cowboys 2
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
49ers7Cowboys17
Field goal7 plays, from the 49ers 37 to the 49ers 21
49ers13Cowboys17
49ers14Cowboys17
Touchdown17 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cowboys 1
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 19 to the Cowboys 48
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 11 to the 49ers 12
No good8 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the 49ers 42
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 32
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.1 seconds
49ers17Cowboys17
Field goal6 plays, from the 49ers 29 to the Cowboys 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.4 seconds
49ers17Cowboys23
49ers17Cowboys24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 27 to the 49ers 12
49ers23Cowboys24
49ers24Cowboys24
Touchdown13 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cowboys 1
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Cowboys 34
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter59 plays
Punt3 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the 49ers 30
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 40 to the Cowboys 46
Intercepted5 plays, from the 49ers 2 to the 49ers 16
49ers24Cowboys27
Field goal4 plays
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 47
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 9 to the Cowboys 29
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the 49ers 29 to the 49ers 49
49ers24Cowboys33
49ers24Cowboys34
Touchdown4 plays, from the 49ers 46 to the 49ers 40
49ers27Cowboys34
Field goal12 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cowboys 13
49ers27Cowboys40
49ers27Cowboys41
Touchdown2 plays
49ers33Cowboys41
Touchdown4 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cowboys 49
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -4
Closing total
46
49ers moneyline
-202
Cowboys moneyline
+180
49ers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 74 — over by 28.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
49ers 7 days · Cowboys 7 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Mike McCarthy
4th · 3:37DAL +12% win prob(3:37) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass incomplete deep right to 11-B.Aiyuk [94-R.Gregory]. PENALTY on DAL-26-J.Lewis, Defensive Pass Interference, 18 yards, enforced at SF 30 - No Play.
3rd · 12:51DAL +12% win prob(12:51) 4-N.Mullens pass deep middle to 13-R.James to DAL 47 for 23 yards (37-D.Wilson). PENALTY on DAL-37-D.Wilson, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 47.
