2020 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 20, 2020 · AT&T Stadium

San Francisco 49ers

Dallas CowboysWinner

SF -4 upsetO 46 ✓Dome49ers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Dallas Cowboys 41–33. Biggest swing: Q4 2:51, SF +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:51SF — DAL SF ball · 2nd & 9DAL 60%

(2:51) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle intended for 11-B.Aiyuk INTERCEPTED by 30-A.Brown [79-J.Hamilton] at DAL 40. 30-A.Brown ran ob at SF 46 for 14 yards (30-J.Wilson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:51SF +20% win prob(2:51) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle intended for 11-B.Aiyuk INTERCEPTED by 30-A.Brown [79-J.Hamilton] at DAL 40. 30-A.Brown ran ob at SF 46 for 14 yards (30-J.Wilson).
Q3 · 8:06DAL +15% win prob(8:06) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb pushed ob at SF 12 for 45 yards (33-T.Moore).
Q4 · 10:34SF +14% win prob(10:34) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short left intended for 81-J.Reed INTERCEPTED by 37-D.Wilson at SF 28. 37-D.Wilson to SF 28 for no gain (81-J.Reed).
Q4 · 2:36DAL +14% win prob(2:36) 20-T.Pollard right tackle for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Cowboys
Offensive plays	81	58
Total yards	458 (edge)	291
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	5.0
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	0.00
Success rate	46% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	57%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	-0.00
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01	0.01 (edge)
Third downs	6/15	6/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

49ers outgained Cowboys 458–291 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Nick MullensQB

21/36, 219 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

0.0 expected points added · -6.4% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Andy DaltonQB

19/33, 209 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

1.1 expected points added · -9.3% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Tony PollardRB

12 att, 69 yds, 2 TD

2.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Raheem MostertRB

14 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Kendrick BourneWR

4/4 for 86 yds, 1 TD

10% of team targets · 9.7 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

CeeDee LambWR

5/7 for 85 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 25	5	9	1:24	Punt
2	DAL	DAL 32	4	8	1:38	Punt
3	DAL	SF 22	6	22	2:24	Touchdown
4	SF	SF 25	4	-1	0:33	Fumble
5	DAL	SF 24	6	24	2:22	Touchdown
6	SF	SF 25	15	85	6:27	Touchdown
7	DAL	DAL 33	9	37	3:35	Fumble
8	SF	SF 25	15	75	6:37	Touchdown
9	DAL	DAL 19	8	29	2:39	Punt
10	SF	SF 11	4	-2	1:20	Punt
11	DAL	DAL 44	7	14	0:39	Turnover on downs
12	SF	50	1	4	0:22	End of half
13	DAL	DAL 25	5	7	1:31	Punt
14	SF	SF 29	6	33	2:41	Turnover on downs
15	DAL	DAL 27	8	73	3:13	Touchdown
16	SF	SF 25	13	70	5:27	Touchdown
17	DAL	DAL 29	5	5	1:33	Punt
18	SF	SF 24	4	6	1:33	Punt
19	DAL	DAL 40	4	6	1:31	Punt
20	SF	SF 2	5	14	2:05	Interception
21	DAL	SF 28	4	0	0:18	Turnover on downs
22	SF	SF 20	7	26	2:15	Punt
23	DAL	DAL 9	7	20	3:19	Punt
24	SF	SF 29	4	17	1:51	Interception
25	DAL	SF 46	3	46	0:16	Touchdown
26	SF	SF 25	11	47	1:47	Turnover on downs
27	DAL	—	2	0	0:06	Defensive touchdown
28	SF	SF 25	4	75	0:34	Touchdown

0 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Mullens	21/36	219	2	2	2	0.0
C.J. Beathard	5/7	100	1	0	0	6.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Raheem Mostert	14	68	4.9	0	0.7
Jeffery Wilson	16	60	3.8	1	-1.2
Tevin Coleman	3	11	3.7	0	0.6
Nick Mullens	1	7	7.0	0	0.4
Kyle Juszczyk	2	4	2.0	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kendrick Bourne	4	4	86	1	10%	9.7
Brandon Aiyuk	9	13	73	1	32%	-1.8
Richie James	4	7	56	0	17%	3.8
Ross Dwelley	2	2	28	0	5%	2.0
Kyle Juszczyk	1	2	25	0	5%	1.0
Jerick McKinnon	2	2	22	0	5%	1.6
Jordan Reed	2	5	18	1	12%	-1.8
River Cracraft	2	2	11	0	5%	0.7
Jeffery Wilson	0	4	0	0	10%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Arik Armstead	5	3	2.0
Tarvarius Moore	4	2	0.0
Dre Greenlaw	2	3	0.0
Fred Warner	3	1	0.0
Azeez Al-Shaair	2	2	0.0
Jimmie Ward	3	1	0.0
Marcell Harris	2	1	0.0
Kerry Hyder	3	0	0.0
Kevin Givens	1	1	0.0
Javon Kinlaw	1	1	0.0

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	19/33	209	2	0	2	1.1
Cedrick Wilson	1/1	12	0	0	0	0.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tony Pollard	12	69	5.8	2	2.9
Rico Dowdle	4	11	2.8	0	-1.3
Andy Dalton	2	8	4.0	0	-1.2
Noah Brown	1	4	4.0	0	-0.2
Blake Bell	1	2	2.0	0	0.7
Amari Cooper	2	-7	-3.5	0	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
CeeDee Lamb	5	7	85	0	22%	6.6
Tony Pollard	6	9	63	0	28%	-0.5
Michael Gallup	3	4	26	1	13%	2.6
Dalton Schultz	2	2	14	1	6%	1.1
Noah Brown	1	6	13	0	19%	-4.3
Blake Bell	1	1	10	0	3%	0.5
Amari Cooper	2	3	10	0	9%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jaylon Smith	5	5	0.0	0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	6	2	0.0	0	2
Donovan Wilson	6	2	0.0	1	2
Anthony Brown	4	3	0.0	1	1
Jourdan Lewis	5	1	1.0	0	1
Demarcus Lawrence	3	2	1.0	0	0
Trevon Diggs	3	2	0.0	0	1
Neville Gallimore	2	3	0.0	0	1
Dorance Armstrong	1	2	0.0	0	0
Leighton Vander Esch	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -4
Closing total: 46
SF moneyline: -202
DAL moneyline: +180

49ers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 74 — over by 28.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: SF 7 days · DAL 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Mike McCarthy