2020 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 20, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

Atlanta Falcons

TB -6 no coverO 49.5 ✓DomeBuccaneers closed -6, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31–27. Biggest swing: Q4 6:25, ATL +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 6:25TB — ATL TB ball · 1st & 10TB 54%

(6:25) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 81-A.Brown for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 6:25ATL +21% win prob(6:25) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 81-A.Brown for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 8:28ATL +14% win prob(8:28) 7-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-4-S.Hofrichter.
Q4 · 9:09TB +9% win prob(9:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at TB 34 for -7 yards (45-D.White).
Q2 · 9:41ATL +9% win prob(9:41) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 83-R.Gage to TB 39 for 7 yards (51-K.Minter).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Falcons
Offensive plays	64	65
Total yards	418 (edge)	369
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	5.7
Expected points added / play	0.23 (edge)	0.03
Success rate	50% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	75%	82%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.30 (edge)	0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01 (edge)	-0.42
Third downs	4/10	6/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	6
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	23
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	0	0

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

31/45, 390 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

14.3 expected points added · +1.8% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

34/49, 356 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

4.5 expected points added · +2.3% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

14 att, 49 yds, 2 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Ito SmithRB

6 att, 24 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Calvin RidleyWR

10/14 for 163 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

6/7 for 110 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	10	75	4:26	Touchdown
2	TB	TB 25	7	26	2:53	Punt
3	ATL	ATL 10	8	46	4:10	Punt
4	TB	TB 12	7	14	3:29	Punt
5	ATL	ATL 26	4	0	0:23	Punt
6	TB	TB 26	4	-1	1:42	Punt
7	ATL	ATL 35	11	65	5:09	Touchdown
8	TB	TB 25	11	22	4:04	Punt
9	ATL	ATL 11	13	75	3:29	Turnover on downs
10	TB	TB 18	2	0	0:15	End of half
11	TB	TB 20	9	80	3:32	Touchdown
12	ATL	ATL 25	9	75	3:54	Touchdown
13	TB	TB 25	10	75	3:50	Touchdown
14	ATL	ATL 25	5	4	0:51	Punt
15	TB	TB 24	8	48	2:48	Touchdown
16	ATL	ATL 25	5	-6	0:40	Punt
17	TB	TB 49	9	42	3:15	Turnover on downs
18	ATL	ATL 25	7	41	2:48	Turnover on downs
19	TB	TB 22	6	78	2:03	Touchdown
20	ATL	ATL 25	5	-13	1:39	Punt
21	TB	TB 27	5	24	1:56	Punt
22	ATL	ATL 12	4	7	0:42	Turnover on downs
23	TB	ATL 19	4	10	2:02	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	31/45	390	2	0	3	14.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Leonard Fournette	14	49	3.5	2	1.4
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	2	4	2.0	0	-1.3
Tom Brady	2	-2	-1.0	0	-4.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	6	7	110	0	16%	10.2
Antonio Brown	5	7	93	1	16%	5.2
Cameron Brate	4	4	54	0	9%	4.6
Chris Godwin	4	5	36	1	12%	4.3
LeSean McCoy	3	3	32	0	7%	-0.7
Rob Gronkowski	3	7	29	0	16%	-0.3
Scott Miller	3	3	20	0	7%	0.5
Leonard Fournette	3	5	16	0	12%	-1.2
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5
Tyler Johnson	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Devin White	8	2	3.0	2
Carlton Davis	7	2	0.0	1
Jamel Dean	4	2	0.0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	4	1	0.0	0
Lavonte David	3	2	0.0	0
Shaquil Barrett	2	1	0.0	0
Jordan Whitehead	2	1	0.0	1
Rakeem Nunez-Roches	2	0	0.0	0
Antoine Winfield	1	1	0.0	1
Ndamukong Suh	2	0	0.0	1

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	34/49	356	3	0	3	4.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ito Smith	6	24	4.0	0.5
Matt Ryan	1	16	16.0	2.4
Todd Gurley	1	-1	-1.0	-1.1
Brian Hill	5	-2	-0.4	-4.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Calvin Ridley	10	14	163	1	29%	4.0
Russell Gage	5	10	68	1	21%	4.3
Keith Smith	3	3	32	0	6%	1.0
Luke Stocker	2	3	21	0	6%	-0.3
Hayden Hurst	4	5	21	1	10%	0.8
Todd Gurley	2	2	15	0	4%	1.1
Laquon Treadwell	1	1	14	0	2%	0.7
Ito Smith	2	3	9	0	6%	-0.0
Brian Hill	2	2	9	0	4%	-0.1
Brandon Powell	2	4	5	0	8%	-1.7
Christian Blake	1	1	-1	0	2%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Deion Jones	5	5	1.0
Sharrod Neasman	3	5	1.0
Isaiah Oliver	6	0	0.0
Foyesade Oluokun	5	1	0.0
Keanu Neal	6	0	0.0
A.J. Terrell	5	0	0.0
Tyeler Davison	1	2	0.0
Tyler Hall	3	0	0.0
Kendall Sheffield	2	1	0.0
John Cominsky	1	1	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -6
Closing total: 49.5
TB moneyline: -258
ATL moneyline: +225

Buccaneers closed -6, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 58 — over by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: TB 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Bruce Arians vs Raheem Morris

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.