For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Buccaneers168 of 177 plays carry both curves
(6:25) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 81-A.Brown for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −21.3 for FalconsExpected points −3.83 for FalconsThe model had Falcons 11 points higher than the market did.play 154
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 6:25ATL +21% win prob(6:25) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 81-A.Brown for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:28ATL +14% win prob(8:28) 7-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-4-S.Hofrichter.
4th · 9:09TB +9% win prob(9:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at TB 34 for -7 yards (45-D.White).
2nd · 9:41ATL +9% win prob(9:41) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 83-R.Gage to TB 39 for 7 yards (51-K.Minter).
4th · 13:48ATL +9% win prob(13:48) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at ATL 35 for 11 yards (20-K.Sheffield).
3rd · 1:45ATL +8% win prob(1:45) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 13-M.Evans. PENALTY on ATL-24-A.Terrell, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at ATL 45 - No Play. PENALTY on ATL-24-A.Terrell, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced between downs.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Antonio Brown's 46-yard touchdown catch with 6:25 left in the 4th put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:39Russell Gage·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+70–7
2nd7:55Calvin Ridley·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+70–14
2nd0:18Younghoe Koo·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.Harris+30–17
4th11:15Ryan Succop·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+324–24
4th8:28Younghoe Koo·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.Harris+324–27
4th6:25Antonio Brown·46-yd TD catch46-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom BradyLead never changed again+731–27
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryFalcons
Buccaneers4–0Falcons
418Total yards369
6.5Yards per play5.7
50%Success rate40%
40%Third-down rate40%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays6
25First downs23
3Sacks taken3
0Turnovers0
The read
Buccaneers ahead 4–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — success rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.23Buccaneers: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.03Falcons: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.30Buccaneers: +0.30 expected points added per play
+0.13Falcons: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Buccaneers: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.42Falcons: −0.42 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 64 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Falcons’s 65 at 82%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 6, Falcons 4.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's early-down pass rate, 77.1%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 1.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 71.2% in week 1.
2.4 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 14.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
high through week 15Against their seasonOver Expected
ATL's pass rate over expected, +16.3 pts, is past their previous high of +7.0 pts in week 14 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
2.7 times their own weekly swing above their number.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
TB's pass rate over expected, +18.6 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 2.3 points clear of the next team along.
A 3.2-swing turn from week 14.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
TB's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.0% in week 14 against 7.5% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
TB's early-down pass rate turned over: 42.9% in week 14 against 74.1% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 29 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.4 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−1.22× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Falcons14.6%
right on their number · +1.3 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 16.3 pts, 15.4 points above their season mean of 0.9 pts and 2.7 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass+24% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(6:25) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 81-A.Brown for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 6:25 · Buccaneers · 1st & 10 at ATL 46 · gained 46 · +3.83 EP · +23.5% win probability
166 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 80 yards from the TB 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
42%
Yards
785
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.2783%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.3677%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.0077%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.6480%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.1475%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.2550%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.5160%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Buccaneers0Falcons6
Buccaneers0Falcons7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 5
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Falcons 49
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 10 to the Buccaneers 44
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 12 to the Buccaneers 26
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 26 to the Buccaneers 33
Buccaneers0Falcons13
Buccaneers0Falcons14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Buccaneers 12
Punt11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Falcons 43
Buccaneers0Falcons17
Field goal16 plays, from the Falcons 11 to the Buccaneers 13
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter46 plays
Buccaneers6Falcons17
Buccaneers7Falcons17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Falcons 1
Buccaneers7Falcons23
Buccaneers7Falcons24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 7
Buccaneers13Falcons24
Buccaneers14Falcons24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Falcons 4
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 29
Buccaneers20Falcons24
Buccaneers21Falcons24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Falcons 1
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter48 plays
Punt4 plays
Buccaneers24Falcons24
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 49 to the Falcons 9
Buccaneers24Falcons27
Field goal7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 27
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.2 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Buccaneers30Falcons27
Buccaneers31Falcons27
Touchdown6 plays, from the Buccaneers 22 to the Falcons 46
Punt5 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Falcons 49
Turnover on downs4 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Falcons 9
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
