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Atlanta Falcons 14 at Kansas City Chiefs 17. Final.
Chiefs -11 no coverU 54 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 16
Kansas City Chiefs 17, Falcons 14 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:01, 2nd and 10, on Demarcus Robinson — 21.9 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:01 · 2nd and 10
Demarcus Robinson
Chiefs
(2:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 11-D.Robinson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Chiefs closed -11, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 17–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:01, Chiefs +21.9% win probability on one snap.
21.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Brandon PowellChiefsQ4 10:50(10:50) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 15-B.Powell to KC 18 for 2 yards (50-W.Gay; 38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (50-W.Gay), RECOVERED by KC-47-D.Harris at KC 18. 47-D.Harris to KC 33 for 15 yards (88-L.Stocker).
20.0pts
Younghoe KooChiefsQ4 0:14(:14) 7-Y.Koo 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-4-S.Hofrichter.
18.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Falcons at 6 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Chiefs at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Chiefs at 2 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 12 on third down, against Chiefs at 5 of 13 on third down.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Falcons164 of 170 plays carry both curves
(2:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 11-D.Robinson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +21.9 for ChiefsExpected points +3.51 for ChiefsThe model had Falcons 7 points higher than the market did.play 155
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:01KC +22% win prob(2:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 11-D.Robinson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:50ATL +20% win prob(10:50) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 15-B.Powell to KC 18 for 2 yards (50-W.Gay; 38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (50-W.Gay), RECOVERED by KC-47-D.Harris at KC 18. 47-D.Harris to KC 33 for 15 yards (88-L.Stocker).
4th · 0:14ATL +18% win prob(:14) 7-Y.Koo 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-4-S.Hofrichter.
4th · 4:37KC +18% win prob(4:37) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 80-L.Treadwell for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 10:42ATL +17% win prob(10:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Oluokun at ATL 1. 54-F.Oluokun to KC 48 for 51 yards (10-T.Hill). FUMBLES (10-T.Hill), ball out of bounds at KC 27.
4th · 4:18KC +14% win prob(4:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce ran ob at ATL 39 for 36 yards (26-I.Oliver). PENALTY on KC-10-T.Hill, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 46.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Demarcus Robinson's 25-yard touchdown catch with 2:01 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd3:40Hayden Hurst·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+77–0
2nd0:35Travis Kelce·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+77–7
4th14:13Harrison Butker·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+37–10
4th4:37Laquon Treadwell·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+714–10
4th2:01Demarcus Robinson·25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+714–17
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryChiefs
Falcons4–5Chiefs
368Total yards396
6.0Yards per play6.1
49%Success rate48%
50%Third-down rate38%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays10
21First downs23
4Sacks taken0
1Turnovers2
The read
Chiefs ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Falcons: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.01Chiefs: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.13Falcons: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.00Chiefs: −0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Falcons: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.06Chiefs: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 61 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 65 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 3, Chiefs 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
KC's sack or hit rate, 30.8%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 0.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 19.4% in week 15.
2.8 times their own weekly swing above their number.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 29 pts
right on their number · −2.6 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Chiefs30.8%
off script — got home · +15.1 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+2.77× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.8%, 15.1 points above their season mean of 15.6% and 2.8 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%68 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%68 snaps
73Matt GonoT · Every snap100%68 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%68 snaps
2Matt RyanQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
61Matt HennessyG · Every snap100%68 snaps
83Russell GageWR · Full-time91%62 snaps
18Calvin RidleyWR · Heavy rotation79%54 snaps
81Hayden HurstTE · Heavy rotation65%44 snaps
88Luke StockerTE · Heavy rotation59%40 snaps
21Todd GurleyRB · Rotational40%27 snaps
25Ito SmithRB · Rotational32%22 snaps
13Christian BlakeWR · Rotational31%21 snaps
23Brian HillRB · Rotational28%19 snaps
40Keith SmithFB · Rotational25%17 snaps
15Brandon PowellWR · Situational19%13 snaps
80Laquon TreadwellWR · Situational16%11 snaps
87Jaeden GrahamTE · Situational10%7 snaps
65Justin McCrayC · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Alex MackCDarqueze DennardCBDeadrin SenatDTMarlon DavidsonDTJames CarpenterGQadree OllisonRBJulio JonesWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4
M.Ryan pass−29% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(10:50) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 15-B.Powell to KC 18 for 2 yards (50-W.Gay; 38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (50-W.Gay), RECOVERED by KC-47-D.Harris at KC 18. 47-D.Harris to KC 33 for 15 yards (88-L.Stocker).
Q4 10:50 · Falcons · 2nd & 4 at KC 20 · gained 2 · -6.03 EP · −28.7% win probability
162 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 98 yards from the ATL 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
46%
Yards
762
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53-0.1475%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.0476%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.1078%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.1813%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.5163%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.3467%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Chiefs 48
Punt10 plays, from the Chiefs 13 to the Falcons 44
Punt12 plays, from the Falcons 13 to the Chiefs 41
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Chiefs 44
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 9 to the Falcons 16
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Intercepted9 plays, from the Chiefs 45 to the Falcons 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Falcons6Chiefs0
Falcons7Chiefs0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 2 to the Chiefs 5
Falcons7Chiefs6
Falcons7Chiefs7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Chiefs 22 to the Falcons 4
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted12 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Falcons 7
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Chiefs 34
Punt12 plays, from the Falcons 8 to the Falcons 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw10.7 seconds
The period ended5 plays, from the Chiefs 37 to the Chiefs 41
4th quarter3 plays
Falcons7Chiefs10
Field goal3 plays
3rd quarter1 plays
4th quarter48 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Chiefs 20
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 33 to the Falcons 49
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Falcons13Chiefs10
Falcons14Chiefs10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Chiefs 5
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Falcons14Chiefs16
Falcons14Chiefs17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Falcons 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
No good12 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Chiefs 21
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
