2020 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27, 2020 · Arrowhead Stadium

Atlanta Falcons

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -11 no coverU 54 ✓Chiefs closed -11, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Kansas City Chiefs 17–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:01, KC +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:01ATL — KC KC ball · 2nd & 10KC 57%

(2:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 11-D.Robinson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:01KC +22% win prob(2:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 11-D.Robinson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 10:50ATL +20% win prob(10:50) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 15-B.Powell to KC 18 for 2 yards (50-W.Gay; 38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (50-W.Gay), RECOVERED by KC-47-D.Harris at KC 18. 47-D.Harris to KC 33 for 15 yards (88-L.Stocker).
Q4 · 0:14ATL +18% win prob(:14) 7-Y.Koo 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-4-S.Hofrichter.
Q4 · 4:37KC +18% win prob(4:37) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 80-L.Treadwell for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Chiefs
Offensive plays	61	65
Total yards	368	396 (edge)
Yards per play	6.0	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.06 (edge)	0.01
Success rate	49% (edge)	48%
Dropback rate	64%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13 (edge)	-0.00
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	0.06 (edge)
Third downs	6/12 (edge)	5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

27/35, 300 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.8 expected points added · +14.8% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

24/44, 278 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

0.1 expected points added · -7.6% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Ito SmithRB

10 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Darrel WilliamsRB

10 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Calvin RidleyWR

5/9 for 130 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

7/13 for 98 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · -1.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	6	26	1:53	Punt
2	KC	KC 13	9	38	3:58	Punt
3	ATL	ATL 13	10	43	6:52	Punt
4	KC	KC 10	5	34	2:06	Punt
5	ATL	ATL 4	6	2	2:26	Punt
6	KC	KC 45	8	34	4:01	Interception
7	ATL	ATL 2	10	98	5:09	Touchdown
8	KC	KC 22	14	78	3:05	Touchdown
9	ATL	ATL 25	2	0	0:30	End of half
10	KC	KC 25	11	63	4:34	Interception
11	ATL	KC 48	4	-5	2:07	Punt
12	KC	KC 21	5	13	1:05	Punt
13	ATL	ATL 8	9	18	5:35	Punt
14	KC	KC 37	7	33	2:31	Turnover on downs
15	ATL	ATL 25	8	57	3:29	Fumble
16	KC	KC 33	5	18	2:41	Punt
17	ATL	ATL 25	9	85	3:25	Touchdown
18	KC	KC 25	11	85	2:38	Touchdown
19	ATL	ATL 25	10	44	1:46	Turnover on downs
20	KC	KC 29	1	0	0:09	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 98 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	27/35	300	2	0	4	10.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ito Smith	10	46	4.6	-0.7
Brian Hill	7	36	5.1	0.0
Todd Gurley	4	16	4.0	1.2
Matt Ryan	1	-1	-1.0	0.0
Calvin Ridley	1	-7	-7.0	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Calvin Ridley	5	9	130	0	26%	6.9
Hayden Hurst	5	6	47	1	18%	2.3
Todd Gurley	3	3	34	0	9%	1.9
Brian Hill	3	3	25	0	9%	1.3
Russell Gage	4	5	23	0	15%	1.9
Keith Smith	2	2	14	0	6%	1.3
Laquon Treadwell	2	2	11	1	6%	2.1
Luke Stocker	1	1	9	0	3%	1.4
Ito Smith	1	1	5	0	3%	0.0
Brandon Powell	1	2	2	0	6%	-7.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Kendall Sheffield	7	2	0	1
Deion Jones	8	0	0	0
Foyesade Oluokun	3	3	1	1
Keanu Neal	5	0	1	1
Mykal Walker	1	3	0	0
Isaiah Oliver	3	0	0	0
Grady Jarrett	1	2	0	0
Charles Harris	2	0	0	0
John Cominsky	1	1	0	0
Ricardo Allen	1	1	0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	24/44	278	2	1	0	0.1
Sammy Watkins	0/1	0	0	1	0	-2.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Darrel Williams	10	46	4.6	0.9
Le'Veon Bell	7	30	4.3	-1.2
Patrick Mahomes	3	21	7.0	1.6
Mecole Hardman	1	20	20.0	1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	7	13	98	1	31%	-1.5
Tyreek Hill	4	6	65	0	14%	3.5
Demarcus Robinson	2	2	29	1	5%	3.3
Darrel Williams	4	6	27	0	14%	-1.6
Mecole Hardman	3	6	24	0	14%	-0.6
Sammy Watkins	2	4	14	0	10%	-1.2
Deon Yelder	1	1	12	0	2%	0.7
Le'Veon Bell	1	3	9	0	7%	-0.9
Patrick Mahomes	0	1	0	0	2%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Willie Gay	7	2	0.0
L'Jarius Sneed	6	1	1.0
Daniel Sorensen	7	0	0.0
Charvarius Ward	4	0	0.0
Darius Harris	4	0	0.0
Mike Pennel	3	1	0.0
Ben Niemann	3	0	0.0
Derrick Nnadi	2	0	0.0
Alex Okafor	2	0	1.0
Frank Clark	2	0	1.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -11
Closing total: 54
ATL moneyline: +409
KC moneyline: -508

Chiefs closed -11, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 54; the game landed 31 — under by 23.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: 49°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: ATL 7 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: Raheem Morris vs Andy Reid