2020 Week 16 · Mon, Dec 28, 2020 · Gillette Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

New England Patriots

BUF -7 ✓47 pushBills closed -7 and covered, winning by 29.

Buffalo Bills 38–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 10:50, NE +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 10:50BUF — NE NE ball · 2nd & 7BUF 82%

(10:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton scrambles left tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-1 Newton 12th rush TD of season, ties franchise record for rush TD by a QB in a season (Grogan, 1976). NE-1 Newton 70th career rush

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 10:50NE +10% win prob(10:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton scrambles left tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-1 Newton 12th rush TD of season, ties franchise record for rush TD by a QB in a season (Grogan, 1976). NE-1 Newton 70th career rush TD, extends NFL record for rush TD by a QB (Young 54).
Q1 · 6:46BUF +7% win prob(6:46) 2-T.Bass 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
Q2 · 8:32NE +7% win prob(8:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox to NE 31 for 12 yards (32-D.McCourty).
Q1 · 0:51NE +7% win prob(:51) 17-J.Allen right end pushed ob at NE 21 for 22 yards (30-J.McCourty). Penalty on NE-70-A.Butler, Defensive Offside, declined.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Patriots
Offensive plays	67	48
Total yards	478 (edge)	201
Yards per play	7.1 (edge)	4.2
Expected points added / play	0.40 (edge)	-0.15
Success rate	51% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	61%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.57 (edge)	-0.29
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	0.00
Third downs	5/11 (edge)	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	30 (edge)	9
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0	0

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.40 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

27/36, 320 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

18.4 expected points added · +17.2% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Jarrett StidhamQB

4/11, 44 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-3.8 expected points added · -18.3% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Sony MichelRB

10 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Zack MossRB

12 att, 57 yds, 1 TD

1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

9/11 for 145 yds, 3 TD

29% of team targets · 11.4 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Dawson KnoxTE

3/4 for 51 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 35	7	38	2:16	Turnover on downs
2	BUF	BUF 47	11	49	6:01	Turnover on downs
3	NE	NE 25	5	-10	1:25	Punt
4	BUF	BUF 30	13	65	5:28	Touchdown
5	NE	NE 10	11	85	4:11	Touchdown
6	BUF	BUF 25	12	75	5:07	Touchdown
7	NE	NE 21	5	3	0:50	Punt
8	BUF	BUF 33	4	67	0:47	Touchdown
9	NE	NE 11	11	28	3:50	Punt
10	BUF	BUF 15	1	0	0:05	End of half
11	BUF	BUF 25	10	75	3:32	Touchdown
12	NE	NE 25	5	8	1:59	Punt
13	BUF	BUF 29	4	4	1:08	Punt
14	NE	NE 5	8	33	2:40	Punt
15	BUF	BUF 5	11	85	7:25	Touchdown
16	NE	NE 25	5	4	1:20	Punt
17	BUF	BUF 7	8	32	4:24	Punt
18	NE	NE 15	7	12	1:48	Punt
19	BUF	BUF 17	8	26	5:44	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 85 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	EPA
Josh Allen	27/36	320	4	18.4
Jaquan Johnson	1/1	13	0	3.1
Matt Barkley	2/3	11	0	0.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Zack Moss	12	57	4.8	1	1.6
Devin Singletary	10	36	3.6	0	-2.2
Josh Allen	4	35	8.8	0	5.2
Isaiah McKenzie	2	5	2.5	0	0.5
Matt Barkley	3	-3	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	9	11	145	3	29%	11.4
Dawson Knox	3	4	51	0	11%	5.1
Gabe Davis	3	5	33	0	13%	0.1
Lee Smith	2	2	31	1	5%	3.0
Isaiah McKenzie	4	4	26	0	11%	1.0
Cole Beasley	3	5	17	0	13%	-2.2
Devin Singletary	2	2	16	0	5%	1.2
Siran Neal	1	1	13	0	3%	3.1
Andre Roberts	2	2	12	0	5%	0.8
Zack Moss	1	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Taiwan Jones	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Matt Milano	7	0	1.0
Tremaine Edmunds	3	2	0.0
Jordan Poyer	4	0	0.0
Mario Addison	3	0	0.0
Quinton Jefferson	2	0	1.0
Tre'Davious White	2	0	0.0
Taron Johnson	1	1	0.0
Ed Oliver	1	1	0.0
Siran Neal	1	0	0.0
Dean Marlowe	1	0	1.0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jarrett Stidham	4/11	44	0	0	1	-3.8
Cam Newton	5/10	34	0	0	2	-6.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Sony Michel	10	69	6.9	0	1.0
J.J. Taylor	6	38	6.3	0	-0.4
Cam Newton	4	24	6.0	1	2.5
James White	4	14	3.5	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jakobi Meyers	4	6	45	33%	0.6
James White	3	3	23	17%	1.2
Damiere Byrd	1	3	7	17%	-1.4
N'Keal Harry	1	4	3	22%	-2.2
Devin Asiasi	0	2	0	11%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast
Jonathan Jones	6	1
Adrian Phillips	4	2
Kyle Dugger	3	2
J.C. Jackson	4	0
Devin McCourty	2	2
Jason McCourty	2	1
Cody Davis	2	1
Terrence Brooks	2	0
Adam Butler	1	1
Deatrich Wise	2	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -7
Closing total: 47
BUF moneyline: -313
NE moneyline: +268

Bills closed -7 and covered, winning by 29.

Total closed 47 and landed exactly there — a push.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 41°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Ronald Torbert
Rest: BUF 9 days · NE 8 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Bill Belichick

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.