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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:14 AM ET · 16 final
Game Center
Game Center
2020 Week 16 · Mon, Dec 28, 2020 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2020 Week 16
It turned at Q2 10:50, 2nd and 7, on Cam Newton — 10.0 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 38–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 10:50, Patriots +10.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 10:50 · 2nd and 7
Cam Newton
Patriots
(10:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton scrambles left tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-1 Newton 12th rush TD of season, ties franchise record for rush TD by a QB in a season (Grogan, 1976). NE-1 Newton 70th career rush TD, extends NFL record for rush TD by a QB (Young 54).
10.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.57 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.29 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.40 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.15 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Patriots at 4 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(10:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton scrambles left tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-1 Newton 12th rush TD of season, ties franchise record for rush TD by a QB in a season (Grogan, 1976). NE-1 Newton 70th career rush
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Zack Moss's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 14:56 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Billscategory by categoryPatriots
Bills ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 67 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Patriots’s 48 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Bills 6, Patriots 1.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.40 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NE's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 4.0 points clear of the next team along.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
NE's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 20.0% in week 15 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 16.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 23.2 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -33 pts to 34 pts
Over Expected room →Bills12.6 ptsright on their number · +4.2 vs their 8.5 pts, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 67 snaps
Patriots-14.3 ptsright on their number · −2.2 vs their -12.1 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 48 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 19% to 87%
Tendencies room →Bills64.2%right on their number · +2.2 vs their 61.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 53 early downs
Patriots47.2%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 48.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 36 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -74% to 127%
Fourth Down room →Bills60.0%inside their normal wobble · +33.6 vs their 26.4%, and they swing ±39.4 week to week (+0.85× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Patriots0.0%leaned — took the kick · −29.4 vs their 29.4%, and they swing ±23.2 week to week (−1.26× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 30%
Tendencies room →Bills19.2%inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.77× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Patriots0.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −12.2 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.81× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 12.2 points below their season mean of 12.2% and 1.8 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
27/36, 320 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
18.4 expected points added · +17.2% completion over expected
Passing · NE
4/11, 44 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-3.8 expected points added · -18.3% completion over expected
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:51) 17-J.Allen right end pushed ob at NE 21 for 22 yards (30-J.McCourty). Penalty on NE-70-A.Butler, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q1 0:51 · Bills · 4th & 1 at NE 43 · gained 22 · +3.82 EP · +13.1% win probability
151 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 160 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 95 yards from the BUF 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Bills0
Patriots3Bills3Patriots3Bills9Patriots3Bills10Patriots3Bills10Patriots9Bills16Patriots9Bills17Patriots9Bills23Patriots9Bills24Patriots9Bills30Patriots9Bills31Patriots9Bills37Patriots9Bills38Patriots9Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bills at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 27/36 | 320 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +18.4 |
| Jaquan Johnson | 1/1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.1 |
| Matt Barkley | 2/3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 1 | +1.6 |
| Devin Singletary | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Josh Allen |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 9 | 11 | 145 | 3 | 29% | +11.4 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 | 11% | +5.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Milano | 7 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poyer | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mario Addison |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Stidham | 4/11 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −3.8 |
| Cam Newton | 5/10 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −6.5 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2020_16_BUF_NE
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -7 and covered, winning by 29.
Total closed 47 and landed exactly there — a push.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 4 |
| 35 |
| 8.8 |
| 0 |
| +5.2 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Matt Barkley | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 13% | +0.1 |
| Lee Smith | 2 | 2 | 31 | 1 | 5% | +3.0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 11% | +1.0 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 13% | −2.2 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 5% | +1.2 |
| Siran Neal | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +3.1 |
| Andre Roberts | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 5% | +0.8 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Taiwan Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Quinton Jefferson | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'Davious White | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ed Oliver | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Siran Neal | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Marlowe | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 10 | 69 | 6.9 | 0 | +1.0 |
| J.J. Taylor | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Cam Newton | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 1 | +2.5 |
| James White | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 | 33% | +0.6 |
| James White | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 17% | +1.2 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 17% | −1.4 |
| N'Keal Harry | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 22% | −2.2 |
| Devin Asiasi | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11% | −1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Jones | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Phillips | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.C. Jackson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin McCourty | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason McCourty | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Davis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrence Brooks | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Butler | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deatrich Wise | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
