2020 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27, 2020 · FedExField

Carolina PanthersWinner

Washington Commanders

CAR -1 ✓U 41 ✓Panthers closed -1 and covered, winning by 7.

Carolina Panthers 20–13. Biggest swing: Q1 1:53, WAS +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 1:53CAR — WAS CAR ball · 4th & 10CAR 56%

(1:53) 3-J.Charlton punts 43 yards to WAS 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 15-S.Sims MUFFS catch, touched at WAS 13, RECOVERED by CAR-16-B.Zylstra at WAS -8. TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 1:53WAS +21% win prob(1:53) 3-J.Charlton punts 43 yards to WAS 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 15-S.Sims MUFFS catch, touched at WAS 13, RECOVERED by CAR-16-B.Zylstra at WAS -8. TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 8:03CAR +13% win prob(8:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins sacked at CAR 40 for -10 yards (98-M.Haynes). FUMBLES (98-M.Haynes) [94-E.Obada], RECOVERED by CAR-56-J.Carter at CAR 28. 56-J.Carter pushed ob at CAR 47 for 19 yards (34-P.Barber).
Q1 · 4:57WAS +8% win prob(4:57) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to CAR 24, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 14-P.Cooper.
Q1 · 10:21CAR +7% win prob(10:21) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater sacked at WAS 43 for -9 yards (94-D.Payne).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Commanders
Offensive plays	63	69
Total yards	283	386 (edge)
Yards per play	4.5	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.11 (edge)	-0.14
Success rate	38%	42% (edge)
Dropback rate	54%	77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09 (edge)	-0.20
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13	0.08 (edge)
Third downs	6/14	7/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	18
Sacks taken	4	3 (edge)
Turnovers	2 (edge)	3

Commanders outgained Panthers 386–283 but lost the turnover battle 3–2. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Teddy BridgewaterQB

19/28, 197 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-7.7 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Dwayne HaskinsQB

14/28, 154 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-16.3 expected points added · -17.3% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Antonio GibsonRB

10 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Curtis SamuelWR

7 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Curtis SamuelWR

5/5 for 106 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 9.5 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

J.D. McKissicRB

8/10 for 77 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 2.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 25	5	2	0:50	Punt
2	CAR	CAR 33	7	19	3:55	Turnover on downs
3	WAS	WAS 43	5	27	2:21	Fumble
4	CAR	CAR 47	4	0	0:56	Punt
5	WAS	WAS 5	6	22	2:09	Punt
6	CAR	CAR 24	6	20	3:07	Defensive touchdown
7	WAS	WAS 26	5	9	1:51	Punt
8	CAR	CAR 20	11	74	6:14	Touchdown
9	WAS	WAS 25	5	19	1:57	Interception
10	CAR	CAR 45	7	55	3:34	Touchdown
11	WAS	WAS 25	10	45	1:46	Turnover on downs
12	CAR	CAR 25	7	35	1:08	Interception
13	WAS	WAS 39	2	0	0:11	Interception
14	CAR	CAR 38	1	0	0:01	End of half
15	CAR	CAR 29	14	44	8:03	Fumble
16	WAS	WAS 26	7	66	2:56	Turnover on downs
17	CAR	CAR 25	9	29	4:47	Punt
18	WAS	WAS 13	9	40	3:30	Turnover on downs
19	CAR	CAR 42	4	6	1:36	Punt
20	WAS	WAS 8	16	65	5:34	Turnover on downs
21	CAR	CAR 23	4	1	0:25	Punt
22	WAS	WAS 9	9	91	1:19	Touchdown
23	CAR	CAR 39	4	0	1:50	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 91 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	19/28	197	1	1	4	-7.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Curtis Samuel	7	52	7.4	0	-0.8
Mike Davis	14	28	2.0	1	-2.1
Rodney Smith	7	23	3.3	0	-1.4
Teddy Bridgewater	6	7	1.2	0	4.4
Alex Armah	1	3	3.0	0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Curtis Samuel	5	5	106	0	18%	9.5
Robbie Chosen	7	10	39	1	36%	-2.6
D.J. Moore	5	10	37	0	36%	-2.2
Rodney Smith	2	2	15	0	7%	0.5
Pharoh Cooper	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shaq Thompson	5	4	0.0	0	0
Jeremy Chinn	6	2	0.0	0	0
Tre Boston	5	1	0.0	1	1
Juston Burris	2	2	0.0	0	0
Rasul Douglas	3	1	0.0	0	1
Myles Hartsfield	3	1	0.0	0	0
Adarius Taylor	1	2	0.0	0	0
Donte Jackson	2	0	0.0	0	2
Marquis Haynes	2	0	1.0	0	0
Jermaine Carter	2	0	0.0	0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dwayne Haskins	14/28	154	0	2	2	-16.3
Taylor Heinicke	12/19	137	1	0	1	2.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Antonio Gibson	10	61	6.1	1.2
Taylor Heinicke	3	22	7.3	3.2
J.D. McKissic	4	15	3.8	0.9
Peyton Barber	1	10	10.0	0.9
Logan Thomas	1	0	0.0	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
J.D. McKissic	8	10	77	1	21%	2.6
Logan Thomas	7	12	63	0	26%	-5.2
Cam Sims	3	9	63	0	19%	2.3
Steven Sims	4	6	52	0	13%	3.0
Robert Foster	1	2	28	0	4%	2.3
Antonio Gibson	3	4	8	0	9%	-2.4
Isaiah Wright	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5
Antonio Gandy-Golden	0	3	0	0	6%	-3.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Cole Holcomb	6	5	1.0	0	0
Kamren Curl	6	2	0.0	1	1
Jon Bostic	3	4	0.0	0	1
Jonathan Allen	5	2	0.0	0	0
Kendall Fuller	5	1	0.0	0	1
Jeremy Reaves	3	3	0.0	0	0
Daron Payne	3	1	1.0	0	0
Chase Young	3	1	1.0	0	1
Ronald Darby	2	1	0.0	0	3
Jimmy Moreland	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CAR -1
Closing total: 41
CAR moneyline: -112
WAS moneyline: +102

Panthers closed -1 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 41; the game landed 33 — under by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 41°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: CAR 8 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Matt Rhule vs Ron Rivera