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Carolina Panthers 20 at Washington Commanders 13. Final.
Panthers -1 ✓U 41 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 16
Carolina Panthers 20, Commanders 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 1:53, 4th and 10 — 20.9 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:53 · 4th and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
Panthers
(1:53) 3-J.Charlton punts 43 yards to WAS 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 15-S.Sims MUFFS catch, touched at WAS 13, RECOVERED by CAR-16-B.Zylstra at WAS -8. TOUCHDOWN.
Panthers closed -1 and covered, winning by 7.
Carolina Panthers 20–13. Biggest swing: Q1 1:53, Panthers +20.9% win probability on one snap.
20.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dwayne HaskinsPanthersQ1 8:03(8:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins sacked at CAR 40 for -10 yards (98-M.Haynes). FUMBLES (98-M.Haynes) [94-E.Obada], RECOVERED by CAR-56-J.Carter at CAR 28. 56-J.Carter pushed ob at CAR 47 for 19 yards (34-P.Barber).
12.7pts
Unnamed on the sheetCommandersQ1 4:57(4:57) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to CAR 24, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 14-P.Cooper.
8.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Panthers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Commanders at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Panthers at 3 chunk plays.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.13 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Panthers won this one — 2 giveaways, against Commanders at 3 giveaways.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Panthers164 of 173 plays carry both curves
(1:53) 3-J.Charlton punts 43 yards to WAS 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 15-S.Sims MUFFS catch, touched at WAS 13, RECOVERED by CAR-16-B.Zylstra at WAS -8. TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −20.9 for CommandersExpected points −7.75 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 11 points higher than the market did.play 35
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 1:53WAS +21% win prob(1:53) 3-J.Charlton punts 43 yards to WAS 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 15-S.Sims MUFFS catch, touched at WAS 13, RECOVERED by CAR-16-B.Zylstra at WAS -8. TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:03CAR +13% win prob(8:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins sacked at CAR 40 for -10 yards (98-M.Haynes). FUMBLES (98-M.Haynes) [94-E.Obada], RECOVERED by CAR-56-J.Carter at CAR 28. 56-J.Carter pushed ob at CAR 47 for 19 yards (34-P.Barber).
1st · 4:57WAS +8% win prob(4:57) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to CAR 24, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 14-P.Cooper.
1st · 10:21CAR +7% win prob(10:21) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater sacked at WAS 43 for -9 yards (94-D.Payne).
2nd · 11:43WAS +7% win prob(11:43) 10-C.Samuel right end to WAS 6 for 45 yards (39-J.Reaves).
2nd · 15:00WAS +6% win prob(15:00) 5-T.Way punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brandon Zylstra's return touchdown with 1:53 left in the 1st put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:53Brandon Zylstra·return TDreturn touchdownon the kickon the kick · kick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+66–0
2nd1:24Dustin Hopkins·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+320–3
3rd4:04Dustin Hopkins·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+320–6
4th2:00J.D. McKissic·29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Taylor Heinickefrom Taylor Heinicke+720–13
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categoryCommanders
Panthers2–6Commanders
283Total yards386
4.5Yards per play5.6
38%Success rate42%
43%Third-down rate47%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
3Explosive plays8
18First downs18
4Sacks taken3
2Turnovers3
The read
Commanders ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Panthers, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.11Panthers: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.14Commanders: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.09Panthers: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.20Commanders: −0.20 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Panthers: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.08Commanders: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 63 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Commanders’s 69 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 3, Commanders 3.
NoteCommanders outgained Panthers 386-283 but lost the turnover battle 3-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 16Against their seasonFourth Down
CAR's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 1 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 16.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 30.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −0.2 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Commanders17.6%
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 47.8%, 11.3 points below their season mean of 59.1% and 1.6 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Charlton punts+22% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:53) 3-J.Charlton punts 43 yards to WAS 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 15-S.Sims MUFFS catch, touched at WAS 13, RECOVERED by CAR-16-B.Zylstra at WAS -8. TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 1:53 · Panthers · 4th & 10 at CAR 44 · gained nothing · +7.75 EP · +22.3% win probability
162 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 91 yards from the WAS 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
40%
Yards
666
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55+0.0782%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.1265%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.6638%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.7738%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.0760%
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.3320%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Panthers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 27
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Panthers 33 to the Commanders 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Commanders 43 to the Panthers 30
Punt4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 5 to the Commanders 27
Panthers6Commanders0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Panthers 24 to the Panthers 45
The period ended5 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Commanders 35
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt1 play
Panthers12Commanders0
Panthers13Commanders0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Commanders 1
Intercepted5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 44
Panthers19Commanders0
Panthers20Commanders0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 45 to the Commanders 14
Panthers20Commanders3
Field goal11 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Panthers 29
Intercepted7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Commanders 40
Intercepted2 plays
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter29 plays
Fumble lost14 plays, from the Panthers 29 to the Commanders 17
Panthers20Commanders6
Field goal7 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Panthers 8
The period ended8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Commanders 41
4th quarter55 plays
Punt2 plays
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Commanders 13 to the Panthers 36
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 42 to the Panthers 48
Turnover on downs18 plays, from the Commanders 8 to the Panthers 5
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 23 to the Panthers 24
Panthers20Commanders12
Panthers20Commanders13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Commanders 9 to the Panthers 29
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
