2020 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Chicago BearsWinner

Jacksonville Jaguars

CHI -9.5 ✓O 47 ✓Bears closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 24.

Chicago Bears 41–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:35, CHI +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:35CHI — JAX CHI ball · 1st & 10CHI 85%

(:35) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right intended for 12-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 47-J.Schobert [59-A.Lynch] at JAX -4. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:35CHI +12% win prob(:35) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right intended for 12-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 47-J.Schobert [59-A.Lynch] at JAX -4. Touchback.
Q2 · 0:17CHI +11% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass deep middle intended for 17-D.Chark Jr. INTERCEPTED by 58-R.Smith at JAX 43. 58-R.Smith to JAX 34 for 9 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at JAX 32.
Q2 · 8:28JAX +8% win prob(8:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass deep left to 17-D.Chark Jr. for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 10:58JAX +5% win prob(10:58) (No Huddle) 33-D.Ogunbowale right end to CHI 23 for 25 yards (58-R.Smith).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Jaguars
Offensive plays	68	54
Total yards	393 (edge)	279
Yards per play	5.8 (edge)	5.2
Expected points added / play	0.26 (edge)	-0.13
Success rate	49% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	57%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.37 (edge)	-0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11 (edge)	-0.12
Third downs	6/12 (edge)	5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

24/35, 265 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

13.9 expected points added · +4.5% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Mike GlennonQB

24/37, 211 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-5.0 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

23 att, 95 yds, 1 TD

2.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Dare OgunbowaleRB

14 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Allen RobinsonWR

10/13 for 103 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Jimmy GrahamTE

4/5 for 69 yds, 2 TD

14% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 21	13	71	6:46	Turnover on downs
2	CHI	CHI 25	12	70	4:56	Touchdown
3	JAX	JAX 22	5	6	1:49	Punt
4	CHI	CHI 35	8	42	3:12	Turnover on downs
5	JAX	JAX 30	12	70	4:56	Touchdown
6	CHI	CHI 25	5	0	1:19	Punt
7	JAX	JAX 17	5	18	2:32	Punt
8	CHI	CHI 19	11	60	4:06	Interception
9	JAX	JAX 20	2	6	0:16	Interception
10	CHI	JAX 32	2	10	0:08	Turnover on downs
11	CHI	CHI 23	13	77	5:46	Touchdown
12	JAX	JAX 30	5	8	1:56	Punt
13	CHI	CHI 46	9	54	4:01	Touchdown
14	JAX	JAX 25	3	0	0:14	Interception
15	CHI	JAX 25	3	25	0:33	Touchdown
16	JAX	JAX 30	5	0	1:35	Punt
17	CHI	JAX 48	10	48	4:08	Touchdown
18	JAX	JAX 25	8	20	2:50	Punt
19	CHI	CHI 17	4	7	2:16	Punt
20	JAX	JAX 36	7	64	2:12	Touchdown
21	CHI	CHI 25	5	0	1:40	Punt
22	JAX	JAX 40	5	16	1:54	Punt
23	CHI	CHI 7	2	0	0:55	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 77 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	24/35	265	2	1	1	13.9
Nick Foles	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Montgomery	23	95	4.1	1	2.1
Artavis Pierce	2	26	13.0	1	3.4
Mitchell Trubisky	2	10	5.0	1	1.3
Darnell Mooney	1	2	2.0	0	-0.5
Ryan Nall	2	0	0.0	0	-0.9
Nick Foles	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0
Cole Kmet	1	-3	-3.0	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Robinson	10	13	103	0	36%	4.8
Jimmy Graham	4	5	69	2	14%	7.0
Darnell Mooney	4	7	39	0	19%	3.8
David Montgomery	2	2	26	0	6%	1.4
Cole Kmet	2	6	18	0	17%	-1.6
Anthony Miller	2	3	10	0	8%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Roquan Smith	8	0	0.0	2	2
Kindle Vildor	4	2	0.0	0	0
Kyle Fuller	2	2	0.0	0	0
Danny Trevathan	1	3	1.0	0	2
John Jenkins	2	1	0.0	0	0
Xavier Crawford	2	1	0.0	0	0
Duke Shelley	1	2	0.0	0	0
Khalil Mack	2	0	0.0	0	0
James Vaughters	1	1	0.0	0	0
Eddie Jackson	1	1	0.0	0	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mike Glennon	24/37	211	2	2	1	-5.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Dare Ogunbowale	14	71	5.1	-1.3
Craig Reynolds	1	4	4.0	-0.2
Devine Ozigbo	1	1	1.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Chark	4	6	62	1	17%	4.5
Laviska Shenault Jr.	5	7	48	1	19%	1.3
Chris Conley	3	3	27	0	8%	2.0
Keelan Cole	3	5	26	0	14%	-0.3
James O'Shaughnessy	2	3	18	0	8%	1.5
Tyler Eifert	2	5	17	0	14%	-0.5
Dare Ogunbowale	3	5	7	0	14%	-7.6
Craig Reynolds	1	1	3	0	3%	-1.1
Devine Ozigbo	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Greg Mabin	10	0	0.0	0	0
Myles Jack	6	2	0.0	0	0
Joe Schobert	6	2	1.0	1	1
Josh Jones	6	0	0.0	0	0
Andrew Wingard	4	2	0.0	0	0
Doug Costin	3	1	0.0	0	0
Daniel Ross	1	1	0.0	0	0
Tre Herndon	1	1	0.0	0	0
K'Lavon Chaisson	1	1	0.0	0	0
Chris Claybrooks	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CHI -9.5
Closing total: 47
CHI moneyline: -452
JAX moneyline: +370

Bears closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 24.

Total closed 47; the game landed 58 — over by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 55°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: CHI 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Doug Marrone