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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:50 AM ET · 16 to play
2020 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
BearsChicago41
BY 24final margin
JaguarsJacksonville17
Chicago Bears 41 at Jacksonville Jaguars 17. Final.
Bears -9.5 ✓O 47 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 16
Chicago Bears 41, Jaguars 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 0:35, 1st and 10, on Joe Schobert — 12.4 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:35 · 1st and 10
Joe Schobert
Jaguars
(:35) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right intended for 12-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 47-J.Schobert [59-A.Lynch] at JAX -4. Touchback.
Bears closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Chicago Bears 41–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:35, Jaguars +12.4% win probability on one snap.
12.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.CharkJaguarsQ2 8:28(8:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass deep left to 17-D.Chark Jr. for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.5pts
Roquan SmithBearsQ2 0:17(:17) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass deep middle intended for 17-D.Chark Jr. INTERCEPTED by 58-R.Smith at JAX 43. 58-R.Smith to JAX 34 for 9 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at JAX 32.
10.8pts
What separated them
Every snap
Bears won this one — +0.26 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.13 expected points per snap.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bears won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bears won this one — +0.37 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.13 expected points per dropback.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bears won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 5 chunk plays.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 38 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Bears164 of 172 plays carry both curves
(:35) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right intended for 12-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 47-J.Schobert [59-A.Lynch] at JAX -4. Touchback.
Swing +12.4 for JaguarsExpected points +4.59 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 22 points higher than the market did.play 81
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:35CHI +12% win prob(:35) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right intended for 12-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 47-J.Schobert [59-A.Lynch] at JAX -4. Touchback.
2nd · 0:17CHI +11% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass deep middle intended for 17-D.Chark Jr. INTERCEPTED by 58-R.Smith at JAX 43. 58-R.Smith to JAX 34 for 9 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at JAX 32.
2nd · 8:28JAX +8% win prob(8:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass deep left to 17-D.Chark Jr. for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:58JAX +5% win prob(10:58) (No Huddle) 33-D.Ogunbowale right end to CHI 23 for 25 yards (58-R.Smith).
2nd · 4:38JAX +5% win prob(4:38) 1-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to CHI 34, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 19-D.Carter. PENALTY on CHI-99-Tr.Gipson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 34.
2nd · 4:24JAX +5% win prob(4:24) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 11-D.Mooney pushed ob at CHI 32 for 13 yards (34-G.Mabin).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cairo Santos's 40-yard field goal with 0:05 left in the 2nd put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:18Aldrick Rosas·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap R.Matiscik+30–3
4th4:37Laviska Shenault Jr.·34-yd TD catch34-yard touchdown catchfrom Mike Glennonfrom Mike Glennon+741–17
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryJaguars
Bears8–0Jaguars
393Total yards279
5.8Yards per play5.2
49%Success rate35%
50%Third-down rate42%
4Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays5
26First downs13
1Sacks taken1
1Turnovers2
The read
Bears ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.26Bears: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.13Jaguars: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.37Bears: +0.37 expected points added per play
−0.13Jaguars: −0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.11Bears: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.12Jaguars: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 68 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 54 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Bears 7, Jaguars 3.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.8 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Jaguars15.4%
right on their number · +2.2 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was CHI's early-down pass rate, 50.0% against a season mean of 59.6% — and CHI swings 12.0 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Trubisky pass−16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:35) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right intended for 12-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 47-J.Schobert [59-A.Lynch] at JAX -4. Touchback.
Q2 0:35 · Bears · 1st & 10 at JAX 13 · gained nothing · -4.59 EP · −16.1% win probability
162 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 77 yards from the CHI 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
42%
Yards
670
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.1780%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.3965%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28+0.0846%
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.320%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Jaguars0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Jaguars2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Bears0Jaguars3
Field goal13 plays, from the Jaguars 21 to the Bears 8
Bears6Jaguars3
Bears7Jaguars3
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Jaguars 5
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 22 to the Jaguars 28
The period ended5 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Jaguars 34
2nd quarter50 plays
Bears10Jaguars3
Field goal7 plays, from the Jaguars 22 to the Jaguars 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Bears10Jaguars9
Bears10Jaguars10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Bears 20
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 17 to the Jaguars 35
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw8.1 seconds
Intercepted14 plays, from the Bears 19 to the Jaguars 13
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 26
Bears13Jaguars10
Field goal2 plays, from the Jaguars 32 to the Jaguars 22
3rd quarter1 plays
2nd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter42 plays
Bears19Jaguars10
Bears20Jaguars10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Jaguars 6
Punt6 plays
Bears26Jaguars10
Bears27Jaguars10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bears 46 to the Jaguars 6
Intercepted3 plays
Bears33Jaguars10
Bears34Jaguars10
Touchdown3 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 22
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 38
The period ended3 plays, from the Jaguars 48 to the Jaguars 46
4th quarter41 plays
Bears40Jaguars10
Bears41Jaguars10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 38 to the Jaguars 3
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 45
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 17 to the Bears 24
Bears41Jaguars16
Bears41Jaguars17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jaguars 36 to the Bears 34
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 40 to the Bears 42
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
