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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:50 AM ET · 16 to play
Cincinnati Bengals 37 at Houston Texans 31. Final.
Texans -7.5 upsetO 46 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 16
Cincinnati Bengals 37, Texans 31 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:35, 1st and 10, on Deshaun Watson — 35.6 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:35 · 1st and 10
Deshaun Watson
Bengals
(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 33 for -7 yards (94-S.Hubbard). FUMBLES (94-S.Hubbard) [94-S.Hubbard], RECOVERED by CIN-70-M.Hunt at HOU 38. HOU-4-D.Watson was injured during the play.
Dome
Texans closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cincinnati Bengals 37–31. Biggest swing: Q4 1:35, Bengals +35.6% win probability on one snap.
35.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Samaje PerineBengalsQ3 13:09(13:09) 34-S.Perine left tackle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.4pts
Darren FellsTexansQ4 6:27(6:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 87-D.Fells for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.2pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.59 expected points per dropback, against Texans at +0.21 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Texans owned this one and still lost it — +0.33 expected points per carry, against Bengals at +0.07 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Bengals won this one — no giveaways, against Texans at 1 giveaway.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bengals won this one — +0.35 expected points per snap, against Texans at +0.24 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Bengals164 of 173 plays carry both curves
(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 33 for -7 yards (94-S.Hubbard). FUMBLES (94-S.Hubbard) [94-S.Hubbard], RECOVERED by CIN-70-M.Hunt at HOU 38. HOU-4-D.Watson was injured during the play.
Swing −35.6 for TexansExpected points −5.23 for TexansThe model had Bengals 6 points higher than the market did.play 159
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:35CIN +36% win prob(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 33 for -7 yards (94-S.Hubbard). FUMBLES (94-S.Hubbard) [94-S.Hubbard], RECOVERED by CIN-70-M.Hunt at HOU 38. HOU-4-D.Watson was injured during the play.
3rd · 13:09HOU +15% win prob(13:09) 34-S.Perine left tackle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 6:27HOU +13% win prob(6:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 87-D.Fells for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 3:27HOU +13% win prob(3:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left tackle to CIN 3 for 14 yards (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), ball out of bounds at CIN 3.
3rd · 5:53HOU +11% win prob(5:53) 8-B.Allen pass deep left to 85-T.Higgins for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:00HOU +11% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Samaje Perine's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 2:00 left in the 4th put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
4th2:00Samaje Perine·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+734–31
4th0:21Austin Seibert·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+337–31
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryTexans
Bengals7–2Texans
541Total yards488
7.7Yards per play9.6
56%Success rate55%
46%Third-down rate44%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
11Explosive plays12
25First downs22
0Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Bengals ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.35Bengals: +0.35 expected points added per play
+0.24Texans: +0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.59Bengals: +0.59 expected points added per play
+0.21Texans: +0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Bengals: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.33Texans: +0.33 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 70 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Texans’s 51 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 6, Texans 5.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs 0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
HOU's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 21 team-games charted in week 16 — 25.0 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 15.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 23.5 points.
CIN's pass rate over expected turned over: −24.0 pts in week 15 against +0.2 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 27 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.8 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Texans10.5%
right on their number · −3.4 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 28.9 points below their season mean of 28.9% and 1.2 times their own 23.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Watson sacked−31% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 33 for -7 yards (94-S.Hubbard). FUMBLES (94-S.Hubbard) [94-S.Hubbard], RECOVERED by CIN-70-M.Hunt at HOU 38. HOU-4-D.Watson was injured during the play.
Q4 1:35 · Texans · 1st & 10 at HOU 40 · lost 2 · -5.23 EP · −31.0% win probability
162 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 75 yards from the HOU 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.17
Success rate
49%
Yards
1028
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.4157%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.0766%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.6041%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.4565%
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 31
Bengals6Texans0
Bengals7Texans0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Texans 8
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 34
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Bengals 17 to the Texans 43
Bengals7Texans3
Field goal5 plays, from the Texans 43 to the Bengals 3
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 32
2nd quarter48 plays
No good11 plays, from the Bengals 39 to the Texans 31
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 39 to the Bengals 42
Bengals10Texans3
Field goal9 plays, from the Bengals 9 to the Texans 17
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Bengals10Texans9
Bengals10Texans10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Bengals 25
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 28
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 32 to the Texans 49
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Bengals16Texans10
Bengals17Texans10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Texans 46
Bengals17Texans16
Bengals17Texans17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Bengals 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Bengals23Texans17
Bengals24Texans17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Texans 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.5 seconds
Bengals24Texans23
Bengals24Texans24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Bengals 2
The period ended4 plays, from the Bengals 10 to the Bengals 24
4th quarter50 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Bengals27Texans24
Field goal11 plays, from the Bengals 31 to the Texans 25
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.8 seconds
Bengals27Texans30
Bengals27Texans31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Texans 22 to the Bengals 22
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Bengals33Texans31
Bengals34Texans31
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Texans 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 40
Bengals37Texans31
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 38 to the Texans 18
The period ended4 plays, from the Texans 18 to the Texans 30
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Bengalscategory by categoryTexans
Bengals6
Texans0
