2020 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27, 2020 · NRG Stadium

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

Houston Texans

HOU -7.5 upsetO 46 ✓DomeTexans closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cincinnati Bengals 37–31. Biggest swing: Q4 1:35, CIN +36% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:35CIN — HOU HOU ball · 1st & 10CIN 58%

(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 33 for -7 yards (94-S.Hubbard). FUMBLES (94-S.Hubbard) [94-S.Hubbard], RECOVERED by CIN-70-M.Hunt at HOU 38. HOU-4-D.Watson was injured during the play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:35CIN +36% win prob(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 33 for -7 yards (94-S.Hubbard). FUMBLES (94-S.Hubbard) [94-S.Hubbard], RECOVERED by CIN-70-M.Hunt at HOU 38. HOU-4-D.Watson was injured during the play.
Q3 · 13:09HOU +15% win prob(13:09) 34-S.Perine left tackle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 6:27HOU +13% win prob(6:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 87-D.Fells for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 3:27HOU +13% win prob(3:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left tackle to CIN 3 for 14 yards (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), ball out of bounds at CIN 3.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Texans
Offensive plays	70	51
Total yards	541 (edge)	488
Yards per play	7.7	9.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.35 (edge)	0.24
Success rate	56% (edge)	55%
Dropback rate	54%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.59 (edge)	0.21
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07	0.33 (edge)
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	4/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	22
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs 0.24.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Brandon AllenQB

29/37, 371 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

22.7 expected points added · +9.7% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

24/33, 324 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

3.5 expected points added · +7.6% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

David JohnsonRB

12 att, 128 yds, 1 TD

5.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Samaje PerineRB

13 att, 95 yds, 2 TD

5.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Brandin CooksWR

7/10 for 141 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

6/9 for 99 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 9.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 25	5	6	1:32	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 29	9	71	4:56	Touchdown
3	HOU	HOU 25	5	9	1:25	Punt
4	CIN	CIN 17	7	40	3:34	Turnover on downs
5	HOU	HOU 43	5	54	2:11	Turnover on downs
6	CIN	CIN 25	13	42	6:16	Turnover on downs
7	HOU	HOU 39	7	29	2:27	Punt
8	CIN	CIN 9	9	74	4:09	Turnover on downs
9	HOU	HOU 25	7	75	1:36	Touchdown
10	CIN	CIN 25	5	3	0:57	Punt
11	HOU	HOU 32	5	17	0:47	Punt
12	CIN	CIN 20	1	0	0:10	End of half
13	CIN	CIN 25	6	75	2:01	Touchdown
14	HOU	HOU 25	9	75	3:54	Touchdown
15	CIN	CIN 25	7	85	3:19	Touchdown
16	HOU	HOU 25	10	80	4:51	Touchdown
17	CIN	CIN 10	12	61	5:20	Turnover on downs
18	HOU	HOU 22	9	88	4:20	Touchdown
19	CIN	CIN 25	12	75	4:18	Touchdown
20	HOU	HOU 25	3	13	0:29	Fumble
21	CIN	HOU 38	5	15	1:10	Turnover on downs
22	HOU	HOU 18	3	42	0:18	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 88 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brandon Allen	29/37	371	2	0	0	22.7
Alex Erickson	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Samaje Perine	13	95	7.3	2	5.4
Giovani Bernard	16	65	4.1	0	-3.0
Trayveon Williams	2	6	3.0	0	-0.6
Brandon Allen	2	3	1.5	0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tee Higgins	6	9	99	1	24%	9.2
Alex Erickson	6	6	88	0	16%	9.2
Giovani Bernard	7	8	66	0	21%	2.5
A.J. Green	4	7	64	0	18%	-0.2
Samaje Perine	4	4	41	0	11%	2.2
Drew Sample	1	1	8	1	3%	2.1
Trenton Irwin	1	2	5	0	5%	-0.9
Mike Thomas	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Darius Phillips	7	2	0.0	2
Vonn Bell	6	2	0.0	0
Germaine Pratt	3	2	0.0	0
Josh Bynes	3	1	0.0	0
LeShaun Sims	3	1	0.0	0
Sam Hubbard	2	2	1.0	0
Jessie Bates	3	1	0.0	0
William Jackson	2	0	0.0	1
Carl Lawson	1	0	0.0	0
Margus Hunt	1	0	0.0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	24/33	324	3	0	1	3.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Johnson	12	128	10.7	1	5.9
Deshaun Watson	5	38	7.6	0	3.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	7	10	141	1	30%	6.6
Keke Coutee	5	5	54	0	15%	2.5
Jordan Akins	4	4	39	0	12%	2.2
Pharaoh Brown	1	1	29	0	3%	1.2
Darren Fells	1	2	22	1	6%	2.3
David Johnson	3	3	11	1	9%	0.8
Chad Hansen	1	3	8	0	9%	-2.3
Kahale Warring	1	3	3	0	9%	-3.7
Steven Mitchell	1	2	2	0	6%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Zach Cunningham	9	5	0
Lonnie Johnson	6	5	0
Tyrell Adams	5	1	0
Vernon Hargreaves	5	1	0
Keion Crossen	6	0	4
John Reid	3	1	1
Jake Martin	3	1	0
J.J. Watt	1	2	0
A.J. Moore	2	1	0
Charles Omenihu	1	2	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -7.5
Closing total: 46
CIN moneyline: +276
HOU moneyline: -324

Texans closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 68 — over by 22.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: CIN 6 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Romeo Crennel