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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
New York Jets 23, Browns 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:25, 4th and 1, on Baker Mayfield — 20.1 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:25 · 4th and 1
Baker Mayfield
Jets
(1:25) 6-B.Mayfield left guard to NYJ 16 for no gain (93-T.Basham). FUMBLES (93-T.Basham), recovered by CLE-27-K.Hunt at NYJ 16. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Browns closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Jets 23–16. Biggest swing: Q4 1:25, Jets +20.1% win probability on one snap.
20.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Braxton BerriosJetsQ1 0:42(:42) 82-J.Crowder pass deep right to 10-B.Berrios for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.7pts
Baker MayfieldJetsQ2 15:00(15:00) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CLE 30 for -8 yards (50-F.Luvu). FUMBLES (50-F.Luvu) [93-T.Basham], RECOVERED by NYJ-94-F.Fatukasi at CLE 32. 94-F.Fatukasi to CLE 30 for 2 yards (53-N.Harris).
12.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Jets won this one — no giveaways, against Browns at 2 giveaways.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Jets at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Jets won this one — +0.09 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.16 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Browns189 of 198 plays carry both curves
(1:25) 6-B.Mayfield left guard to NYJ 16 for no gain (93-T.Basham). FUMBLES (93-T.Basham), recovered by CLE-27-K.Hunt at NYJ 16. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the
Swing +20.1 for JetsExpected points +3.25 for JetsThe model had Jets 6 points higher than the market did.play 193
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:25CLE +20% win prob(1:25) 6-B.Mayfield left guard to NYJ 16 for no gain (93-T.Basham). FUMBLES (93-T.Basham), recovered by CLE-27-K.Hunt at NYJ 16. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 0:42NYJ +18% win prob(:42) 82-J.Crowder pass deep right to 10-B.Berrios for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 15:00CLE +13% win prob(15:00) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CLE 30 for -8 yards (50-F.Luvu). FUMBLES (50-F.Luvu) [93-T.Basham], RECOVERED by NYJ-94-F.Fatukasi at CLE 32. 94-F.Fatukasi to CLE 30 for 2 yards (53-N.Harris).
4th · 3:24CLE +12% win prob(3:24) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CLE 7 for -8 yards (93-T.Basham). FUMBLES (93-T.Basham) [93-T.Basham], touched at CLE 9, RECOVERED by NYJ-91-J.Franklin-Myers at CLE 17.
3rd · 10:32NYJ +9% win prob(10:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 82-J.Crowder for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:37NYJ +9% win prob(13:37) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 89-C.Herndon for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Braxton Berrios's 43-yard touchdown catch with 0:42 left in the 1st put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:30Cody Parkey·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+33–0
4th12:42Kareem Hunt·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, hit left upright+616–20
4th2:56Sam Ficken·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+316–23
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryJets
Browns3–6Jets
299Total yards336
4.1Yards per play5.1
47%Success rate39%
40%Third-down rate41%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays5
20First downs17
4Sacks taken2
2Turnovers0
The read
Jets ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Browns: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.02Jets: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.16Browns: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.09Jets: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Browns: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.16Jets: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 73 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Jets’s 66 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Jets 4.
NoteJets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 16Against their seasonTendencies
CLE's early-down pass rate, 77.2%, is past their previous high of 62.9% in week 14 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
57 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.3 points.
low through week 16Against their seasonFourth Down
NYJ's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 20.0% in week 15 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 16.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.4 points.
high through week 16Against their seasonOver Expected
CLE's pass rate over expected, +7.5 pts, is past their previous high of +4.1 pts in week 13 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
73 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Jets12.7%
right on their number · −0.4 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 77.2%, 28.2 points above their season mean of 49.0% and 2.1 times their own 13.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
47 dressed · 9 inactive
70Kendall LammT · Every snap100%81 snaps
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%81 snaps
53Nick HarrisC · Every snap100%81 snaps
64J.C. TretterC · Every snap100%81 snaps
78Jack ConklinT · Every snap100%81 snaps
6Baker MayfieldQB · Every snap100%81 snaps
84Ja'Marcus BradleyWR · Full-time95%77 snaps
18Marvin HallWR · Full-time91%74 snaps
88Harrison BryantTE · Full-time83%67 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Heavy rotation73%59 snaps
24Nick ChubbRB · Heavy rotation58%47 snaps
27Kareem HuntRB · Rotational43%35 snaps
85David NjokuTE · Rotational38%31 snaps
31Andy JanovichFB · Situational14%11 snaps
16Derrick WilliesWR · Situational4%3 snaps
68Michael DunnT · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 9
Joe JacksonDETedric ThompsonFSWyatt TellerGJacob PhillipsOLBJedrick WillsTDonovan Peoples-JonesWRRashard HigginsWRJarvis LandryWRKhadarel HodgeWR
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
67Pat ElfleinG · Every snap100%69 snaps
76George FantT · Every snap100%69 snaps
60Connor McGovernC · Every snap100%69 snaps
77Mekhi BectonT · Every snap100%69 snaps
19Breshad PerrimanWR · Every snap100%69 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
82Jamison CrowderWR · Full-time91%63 snaps
11Denzel MimsWR · Full-time91%63 snaps
89Christopher HerndonTE · Full-time87%60 snaps
68Josh AndrewsG · Heavy rotation62%43 snaps
21Frank GoreRB · Rotational45%31 snaps
69Conor McDermottT · Rotational38%26 snaps
22La'Mical PerineRB · Rotational28%19 snaps
25Ty JohnsonRB · Rotational26%18 snaps
85Trevon WescoTE · Situational12%8 snaps
87Daniel BrownWR · Situational10%7 snaps
10Braxton BerriosWR · Situational10%7 snaps
Inactive · 7
James MurrayCJavelin GuidryDBTrevon ColeyDTChase McLaughlinKJames MorganQBRoss TravisTELawrence CagerWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield left−14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:25) 6-B.Mayfield left guard to NYJ 16 for no gain (93-T.Basham). FUMBLES (93-T.Basham), recovered by CLE-27-K.Hunt at NYJ 16. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 1:25 · Browns · 4th & 1 at NYJ 16 · gained nothing · -3.25 EP · −14.1% win probability
187 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 198 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 198 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 83 yards from the CLE 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
198 of 198 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
198
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
39%
Yards
632
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR55-0.0289%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55+0.0255%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-1.2443%
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR7+0.0957%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.2160%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR2——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Jets0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
198 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
198 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 35 to the Browns 40
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Jets 32
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Browns3Jets0
Field goal10 plays, from the Browns 40 to the Jets 21
Punt9 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Browns 41
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 13 to the Browns 20
Browns3Jets6
Browns3Jets7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jets 34 to the Browns 43
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost1 play
Browns3Jets13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 11
Punt11 plays, from the Browns 27 to the Jets 31
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 10 to the Jets 47
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 9 to the Browns 21
Punt7 plays, from midfield to the Browns 39
No good9 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Jets 43
3rd quarter1 plays
2nd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter47 plays
Browns3Jets19
Browns3Jets20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Browns 28
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 22 to the Browns 27
No good9 plays, from the Jets 37 to the Browns 32
Browns9Jets20
Browns10Jets20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Browns 40 to the Jets 1
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 34
The period ended6 plays, from the Browns 17 to the Browns 41
4th quarter59 plays
Browns16Jets20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jets 42 to the Jets 4
Punt11 plays, from the Jets 18 to midfield
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 14 to the Browns 37
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Browns 49
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Browns 11 to the Browns 15
Browns16Jets23
Field goal8 plays, from the Browns 17 to the Browns 11
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Browns 40 to the Jets 16
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Browns -6.5
Closing total
45
Browns moneyline
-303
Jets moneyline
+260
Browns closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45; the game landed 39 — under by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 36°F at kickoff; still at 5 mph out of the south-west; partly cloudy.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Browns 7 days · Jets 7 days
Coaches
Kevin Stefanski vs Adam Gase
4th · 7:01CLE +7% win prob(7:01) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 24-N.Chubb to CLE 43 for 6 yards (41-M.Farley; 58-B.Hager). PENALTY on CLE-84-J.Bradley, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 37 - No Play.
1st · 12:38NYJ +7% win prob(12:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 81-A.Hooper to NYJ 33 for 28 yards (31-B.Austin).
Brownscategory by categoryJets
Browns3
Jets0
