2020 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27, 2020 · MetLife Stadium

Cleveland Browns

New York JetsWinner

CLE -6.5 upsetU 45 ✓Browns closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Jets 23–16. Biggest swing: Q4 1:25, CLE +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:25CLE — NYJ CLE ball · 4th & 1NYJ 78%

(1:25) 6-B.Mayfield left guard to NYJ 16 for no gain (93-T.Basham). FUMBLES (93-T.Basham), recovered by CLE-27-K.Hunt at NYJ 16. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:25CLE +20% win prob(1:25) 6-B.Mayfield left guard to NYJ 16 for no gain (93-T.Basham). FUMBLES (93-T.Basham), recovered by CLE-27-K.Hunt at NYJ 16. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q1 · 0:42NYJ +18% win prob(:42) 82-J.Crowder pass deep right to 10-B.Berrios for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 15:00CLE +13% win prob(15:00) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CLE 30 for -8 yards (50-F.Luvu). FUMBLES (50-F.Luvu) [93-T.Basham], RECOVERED by NYJ-94-F.Fatukasi at CLE 32. 94-F.Fatukasi to CLE 30 for 2 yards (53-N.Harris).
Q4 · 3:24CLE +12% win prob(3:24) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CLE 7 for -8 yards (93-T.Basham). FUMBLES (93-T.Basham) [93-T.Basham], touched at CLE 9, RECOVERED by NYJ-91-J.Franklin-Myers at CLE 17.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Jets
Offensive plays	73	66
Total yards	299	336 (edge)
Yards per play	4.1	5.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.14	-0.02 (edge)
Success rate	47% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	75%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	0.09 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06 (edge)	-0.16
Third downs	6/15	7/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

28/53, 285 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-9.2 expected points added · -11.1% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

16/32, 175 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

0.0 expected points added · -3.7% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Frank GoreRB

14 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

La'Mical PerineRB

9 att, 30 yds, 0 TD

-2.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Jamison CrowderWR

7/9 for 92 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Austin HooperTE

7/15 for 71 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 0.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 35	5	5	0:57	Punt
2	NYJ	NYJ 26	4	6	0:44	Punt
3	CLE	CLE 40	9	39	3:53	Turnover on downs
4	NYJ	NYJ 22	9	28	4:27	Punt
5	CLE	CLE 13	4	7	2:06	Punt
6	NYJ	NYJ 34	6	66	2:19	Touchdown
7	CLE	CLE 25	3	7	0:40	Fumble
8	NYJ	CLE 30	5	30	1:21	Touchdown
9	CLE	CLE 27	10	16	5:07	Punt
10	NYJ	NYJ 10	8	37	3:21	Punt
11	CLE	CLE 9	6	2	2:45	Punt
12	NYJ	50	6	11	1:36	Punt
13	CLE	CLE 30	8	27	0:44	Turnover on downs
14	NYJ	NYJ 25	10	75	4:34	Touchdown
15	CLE	CLE 22	5	16	1:58	Punt
16	NYJ	NYJ 37	8	16	2:47	Turnover on downs
17	CLE	CLE 40	10	58	2:45	Touchdown
18	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	9	1:35	Punt
19	CLE	CLE 17	13	72	3:43	Touchdown
20	NYJ	NYJ 18	10	36	5:13	Punt
21	CLE	CLE 14	5	8	1:09	Punt
22	NYJ	NYJ 35	7	16	2:11	Punt
23	CLE	CLE 11	3	-2	0:51	Fumble
24	NYJ	CLE 17	4	6	0:22	Turnover on downs
25	CLE	CLE 40	9	44	1:34	Turnover on downs
26	NYJ	NYJ 16	3	0	1:18	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 75 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	28/53	285	0	0	4	-9.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	11	28	2.5	1	-1.0
Kareem Hunt	4	11	2.8	1	1.4
Baker Mayfield	3	6	2.0	0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Austin Hooper	7	15	71	30%	0.5
Ja'Marcus Bradley	5	11	60	22%	1.0
Kareem Hunt	3	5	41	10%	-0.3
Nick Chubb	5	5	38	10%	1.7
Harrison Bryant	3	7	37	14%	0.2
David Njoku	4	4	26	8%	1.0
Marvin Hall	1	2	12	4%	0.6
Andy Janovich	0	1	0	2%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Sheldon Richardson	4	6	0.0	0
Malcolm Smith	3	5	0.0	0
Sione Takitaki	3	4	0.0	0
Mack Wilson	1	5	0.0	0
Karl Joseph	2	3	0.0	0
Olivier Vernon	3	2	1.0	0
Myles Garrett	2	2	1.0	1
Larry Ogunjobi	2	2	0.0	0
Porter Gustin	2	2	0.0	0
Elijah Lee	2	0	0.0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	16/32	175	2	0	2	0.0
Jamison Crowder	1/1	43	1	0	0	3.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Frank Gore	14	48	3.4	-3.3
La'Mical Perine	9	30	3.3	-2.1
Sam Darnold	7	20	2.9	-0.1
Jamison Crowder	1	14	14.0	0.9
Ty Johnson	2	13	6.5	-0.7
Breshad Perriman	1	6	6.0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jamison Crowder	7	9	92	1	32%	6.5
Braxton Berrios	3	3	60	1	11%	3.2
Christopher Herndon	4	4	34	1	14%	5.6
La'Mical Perine	1	2	14	0	7%	0.3
Daniel Brown	1	1	13	0	4%	2.5
Frank Gore	1	1	5	0	4%	1.6
Breshad Perriman	0	6	0	0	21%	-4.8
Denzel Mims	0	2	0	0	7%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bryce Hager	3	5	0.0	1
Blessuan Austin	4	3	0.0	1
Marcus Maye	3	3	0.0	0
Tarell Basham	2	3	1.0	0
Neville Hewitt	2	3	0.0	2
Matthias Farley	1	4	0.0	2
Arthur Maulet	3	1	0.0	3
Frankie Luvu	3	1	1.0	0
Folorunso Fatukasi	1	2	0.0	0
Nathan Shepherd	2	1	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -6.5
Closing total: 45
CLE moneyline: -303
NYJ moneyline: +260

Browns closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45; the game landed 39 — under by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 37°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: CLE 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Adam Gase