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DYNATYZE
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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:15 AM ET · 16 final
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Broncos169 of 180 plays carry both curves
(13:25) 8-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Swing +10.7 for ChargersExpected points +4.34 for ChargersModel and market agree here.play 42
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 13:25DEN +11% win prob(13:25) 8-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.
4th · 2:42LAC +11% win prob(2:42) 64-C.Toner reported in as eligible. 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to LAC 36 for 11 yards (42-P.Motley).
4th · 2:47LAC +10% win prob(2:47) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.
4th · 4:44LAC +9% win prob(4:44) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep right to 87-N.Fant to LAC 37 for 19 yards (24-N.Adderley).
4th · 0:01DEN +9% win prob(:01) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep middle INTERCEPTED by 81-M.Williams [99-J.Tillery] at LAC 1. 81-M.Williams to LAC 1 for no gain.
2nd · 15:00LAC +9% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short middle to 10-J.Jeudy to LAC 25 for 17 yards (43-M.Davis; 36-J.Addae).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Michael Badgley's 37-yard field goal with 0:45 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st12:57Michael Badgley·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap C.Mazza+30–3
4th2:47Brandon McManus·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+316–16
4th0:45Michael Badgley·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap C.MazzaLead never changed again+316–19
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryChargers
Broncos4–3Chargers
396Total yards316
5.2Yards per play5.7
45%Success rate38%
41%Third-down rate25%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays9
23First downs15
2Sacks taken2
2Turnovers0
The read
Broncos ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chargers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Broncos: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.02Chargers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.00Broncos: +0.00 expected points added per play
+0.06Chargers: +0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Broncos: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.20Chargers: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 76 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Chargers’s 55 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 4, Chargers 4.
NoteBroncos outgained Chargers 396-316 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.5 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Chargers12.0%
right on their number · −2.3 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 7.4 pts, 9.1 points above their season mean of -1.7 pts and 1.2 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Lock pass−17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:01) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep middle INTERCEPTED by 81-M.Williams [99-J.Tillery] at LAC 1. 81-M.Williams to LAC 1 for no gain.
Q4 0:01 · Broncos · 2nd & 10 at 50 · gained nothing · -0.37 EP · −17.2% win probability
167 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 73 yards from the LAC 27 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
39%
Yards
712
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR62+0.0369%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.0565%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.4067%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.0533%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.8480%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.2140%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Broncos0Chargers3
Field goal7 plays, from the Broncos 39 to the Broncos 19
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.5 seconds
Intercepted15 plays, from the Broncos 13 to the Chargers 16
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 6 to the Chargers 20
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 45 to the Chargers 43
2nd quarter45 plays
No good6 plays, from the Chargers 42 to the Chargers 19
Broncos0Chargers9
Broncos0Chargers10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chargers 27 to the Broncos 9
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Broncos 26
Broncos0Chargers13
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Broncos 24
Drive ended2 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Broncos 47
Punt3 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Chargers 15 to the Chargers 47
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Broncos 28 to the Chargers 42
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 23
Broncos3Chargers13
Field goal8 plays, from the Broncos 47 to the Chargers 12
The period ended11 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Broncos 7
4th quarter65 plays
Broncos3Chargers16
Field goal3 plays
Broncos6Chargers16
Field goal10 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Chargers 31
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 31 to the Chargers 40
Broncos12Chargers16
Broncos13Chargers16
Touchdown12 plays, from the Broncos 28 to the Chargers 1
Punt6 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Broncos16Chargers16
Field goal7 plays, from the Broncos 42 to the Chargers 33
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Broncos16Chargers19
Field goal13 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Broncos 13
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and four backsCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.9 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to midfield
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -2.5
Closing total
47.5
Broncos moneyline
+113
Chargers moneyline
-125
Chargers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 35 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Broncos 8 days · Chargers 10 days
Coaches
Vic Fangio vs Anthony Lynn
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 5:20
DEN +9% win prob
(5:20) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep left intended for 17-D.Hamilton INTERCEPTED by 26-C.Hayward Jr. at LAC -3. 26-C.Hayward Jr. to LAC 6 for 9 yards (66-D.Risner).
4th · 4:14DEN +8% win prob(4:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on DEN-87-N.Fant, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 37 - No Play.
Broncoscategory by categoryChargers
Broncos0
Chargers3
