2020 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27, 2020 · SoFi Stadium

Denver Broncos

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

LAC -2.5 ✓U 47.5 ✓DomeChargers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Los Angeles Chargers 19–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 13:25, DEN +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 13:25DEN — LAC DEN ball · 4th & 4LAC 55%

(13:25) 8-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 13:25DEN +11% win prob(13:25) 8-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q4 · 2:42LAC +11% win prob(2:42) 64-C.Toner reported in as eligible. 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to LAC 36 for 11 yards (42-P.Motley).
Q4 · 2:47LAC +10% win prob(2:47) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q4 · 4:44LAC +9% win prob(4:44) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep right to 87-N.Fant to LAC 37 for 19 yards (24-N.Adderley).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Chargers
Offensive plays	76	55
Total yards	396 (edge)	316
Yards per play	5.2	5.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.02 (edge)	-0.02
Success rate	45% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	66%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.00	0.06 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	-0.20
Third downs	7/17 (edge)	3/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Broncos outgained Chargers 396–316 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Drew LockQB

24/47, 264 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-0.5 expected points added · -8.8% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

21/33, 253 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-1.4 expected points added · -6.0% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Melvin GordonRB

16 att, 79 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

10 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

DaeSean HamiltonWR

5/9 for 77 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · -2.3 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Noah FantTE

6/9 for 65 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 2.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	DEN 39	6	20	2:07	Turnover on downs
2	DEN	DEN 13	15	71	7:45	Interception
3	LAC	LAC 6	6	9	2:24	Punt
4	DEN	DEN 45	10	31	4:23	Turnover on downs
5	LAC	LAC 27	10	73	4:58	Touchdown
6	DEN	DEN 19	6	17	1:57	Punt
7	LAC	LAC 35	9	55	3:48	Turnover on downs
8	DEN	DEN 25	7	22	0:57	Punt
9	LAC	LAC 15	4	12	1:41	End of half
10	DEN	DEN 28	10	39	3:39	Punt
11	LAC	LAC 20	4	7	2:32	Punt
12	DEN	DEN 47	8	41	3:42	Turnover on downs
13	LAC	LAC 25	12	73	5:17	Turnover on downs
14	DEN	DEN 21	10	48	3:32	Turnover on downs
15	LAC	LAC 31	5	9	0:57	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 28	12	72	3:50	Touchdown
17	LAC	LAC 12	5	2	1:06	Punt
18	DEN	DEN 42	6	30	2:43	Turnover on downs
19	LAC	LAC 25	8	56	2:01	Turnover on downs
20	DEN	DEN 25	7	25	0:41	Interception

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 73 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Lock	24/47	264	0	2	2	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Melvin Gordon	16	79	4.9	0	-0.3
Royce Freeman	2	16	8.0	0	0.9
Drew Lock	5	15	3.0	1	1.1
LeVante Bellamy	3	11	3.7	0	-0.5
Diontae Spencer	1	9	9.0	0	1.0
K.J. Hamler	1	3	3.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
DaeSean Hamilton	5	9	77	21%	-2.3
Noah Fant	6	9	65	21%	2.1
Jerry Jeudy	6	15	61	35%	-0.0
Tim Patrick	3	4	39	9%	5.5
Diontae Spencer	1	2	10	5%	0.9
Royce Freeman	2	2	7	5%	-1.1
LeVante Bellamy	1	1	5	2%	-0.9
Troy Fumagalli	0	1	0	2%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Alexander Johnson	2	5	0.0	0
Michael Ojemudia	7	0	0.0	0
Will Parks	6	0	0.0	0
Malik Reed	3	2	1.0	0
Justin Simmons	3	1	0.0	0
Josey Jewell	3	0	0.0	2
Shelby Harris	0	3	0.0	2
De'Vante Bausby	3	0	0.0	0
Kareem Jackson	2	0	0.0	0
Dre'Mont Jones	1	1	1.0	0

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	21/33	253	1	0	2	-1.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Austin Ekeler	10	45	4.5	-1.2
Justin Herbert	4	26	6.5	3.6
Kalen Ballage	4	14	3.5	-0.9
Justin Jackson	2	4	2.0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Williams	4	10	54	0	30%	-4.0
Stephen Anderson	4	6	48	0	18%	0.6
Donald Parham	2	3	47	0	9%	1.7
Jalen Guyton	3	5	43	0	15%	0.2
Tyron Johnson	3	3	26	0	9%	1.0
Austin Ekeler	3	3	23	1	9%	1.4
Kalen Ballage	2	3	12	0	9%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Michael Davis	5	4	0.0	1
Kenneth Murray	6	2	0.0	0
Jahleel Addae	3	5	0.5	1
Linval Joseph	2	5	0.0	0
Denzel Perryman	5	2	0.0	0
Nasir Adderley	4	2	0.0	0
Chris Harris	3	3	0.5	0
Nick Vigil	1	3	1.0	0
Isaac Rochell	2	1	0.0	0
B.J. Bello	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -2.5
Closing total: 47.5
DEN moneyline: +113
LAC moneyline: -125

Chargers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 35 — under by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: DEN 8 days · LAC 10 days
Coaches: Vic Fangio vs Anthony Lynn

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.