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2020 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27, 2020 · SoFi Stadium
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19
Los Angeles Chargers 19–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 13:25, DEN +11% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(13:25) 8-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Broncos | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 76 | 55 |
| Total yards | 396 (edge) | 316 |
| Yards per play | 5.2 | 5.7 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.02 (edge) | -0.02 |
| Success rate | 45% (edge) | 38% |
| Dropback rate | 66% | 69% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.00 | 0.06 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.05 (edge) | -0.20 |
| Third downs | 7/17 (edge) | 3/12 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 9 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 23 (edge) | 15 |
| Sacks taken | 2 | 2 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 (edge) |
Broncos outgained Chargers 396–316 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
24/47, 264 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-0.5 expected points added · -8.8% completion over expected
Passing · LAC
21/33, 253 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-1.4 expected points added · -6.0% completion over expected
Receiving · DEN
5/9 for 77 yds, 0 TD
21% of team targets · -2.3 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | DEN 39 | 6 | 20 | 2:07 | Turnover on downs | |
| 2 | DEN | DEN 13 | 15 | 71 | 7:45 | Interception | |
| 3 | LAC | LAC 6 | 6 | 9 | 2:24 | Punt | |
| 4 | DEN | DEN 45 | 10 | 31 | 4:23 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | LAC | LAC 27 | 10 | 73 | 4:58 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | DEN | DEN 19 | 6 | 17 | 1:57 | Punt | |
| 7 | LAC | LAC 35 | 9 | 55 | 3:48 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | DEN | DEN 25 | 7 | 22 | 0:57 | Punt | |
| 9 | LAC | LAC 15 | 4 | 12 | 1:41 | End of half | |
| 10 | DEN | DEN 28 | 10 | 39 | 3:39 | Punt | |
| 11 | LAC | LAC 20 | 4 | 7 | 2:32 | Punt | |
| 12 | DEN | DEN 47 | 8 | 41 | 3:42 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | LAC | LAC 25 | 12 | 73 | 5:17 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | DEN | DEN 21 | 10 | 48 | 3:32 | Turnover on downs | |
| 15 | LAC | LAC 31 | 5 | 9 | 0:57 | Punt | |
| 16 | DEN | DEN 28 | 12 | 72 | 3:50 | Touchdown | |
| 17 | LAC | LAC 12 | 5 | 2 | 1:06 | Punt | |
| 18 | DEN | DEN 42 | 6 | 30 | 2:43 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | LAC | LAC 25 | 8 | 56 | 2:01 | Turnover on downs | |
| 20 | DEN | DEN 25 | 7 | 25 | 0:41 | Interception |
0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 73 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 24/47 | 264 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 16 | 79 | 4.9 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Royce Freeman | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | 0.9 |
| Drew Lock | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 1 | 1.1 |
| LeVante Bellamy | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Diontae Spencer | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 1.0 |
| K.J. Hamler | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DaeSean Hamilton | 5 | 9 | 77 | 0 | 21% | -2.3 |
| Noah Fant | 6 | 9 | 65 | 0 | 21% | 2.1 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 15 | 61 | 0 | 35% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Johnson | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Ojemudia | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Parks | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Reed |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 21/33 | 253 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 35 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| -0.0 |
| Tim Patrick | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 9% | 5.5 |
| Diontae Spencer | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 5% | 0.9 |
| Royce Freeman | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5% | -1.1 |
| LeVante Bellamy | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2% | -0.9 |
| Troy Fumagalli | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | -0.7 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Justin Simmons | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josey Jewell | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Shelby Harris | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| De'Vante Bausby | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kareem Jackson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre'Mont Jones | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -1.2 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 | 3.6 |
| Kalen Ballage | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Justin Jackson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 4 | 10 | 54 | 0 | 30% | -4.0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 4 | 6 | 48 | 0 | 18% | 0.6 |
| Donald Parham | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 9% | 1.7 |
| Jalen Guyton | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 15% | 0.2 |
| Tyron Johnson | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 9% | 1.0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 3 | 23 | 1 | 9% | 1.4 |
| Kalen Ballage | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 9% | -0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Davis | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kenneth Murray | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahleel Addae | 3 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Linval Joseph | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Perryman | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nasir Adderley | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Harris | 3 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Vigil | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Rochell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| B.J. Bello | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
