2020 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27, 2020 · Heinz Field

Indianapolis Colts

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

IND -1 upsetO 43 ✓Colts closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Pittsburgh Steelers 28–24. Biggest swing: Q4 1:19, IND +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:19IND — PIT IND ball · 4th & 8PIT 79%

(1:19) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep right to 14-Z.Pascal [56-A.Highsmith].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:19IND +18% win prob(1:19) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep right to 14-Z.Pascal [56-A.Highsmith].
Q4 · 7:43PIT +16% win prob(7:43) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:39PIT +13% win prob(1:39) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 13-T.Hilton pushed ob at PIT 35 for 21 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
Q2 · 14:46IND +12% win prob(14:46) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at IND 24 for -8 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt), touched at IND 23, RECOVERED by PIT-28-M.Hilton at IND 17. 28-M.Hilton to IND 3 for 14 yards (28-J.Taylor).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Steelers
Offensive plays	67	62
Total yards	365 (edge)	355
Yards per play	5.4	5.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.00 (edge)	-0.01
Success rate	49% (edge)	48%
Dropback rate	58%	81%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	0.06 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.24 (edge)	-0.29
Third downs	5/13 (edge)	4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	20	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Colts outgained Steelers 365–355 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

34/49, 341 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

3.0 expected points added · +1.0% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Philip RiversQB

21/34, 270 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-6.4 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

18 att, 74 yds, 2 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Nyheim Miller-HinesRB

8 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

JuJu Smith-SchusterWR

9/13 for 96 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Diontae JohnsonWR

8/14 for 74 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · -0.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 24	5	0	0:27	Punt
2	IND	IND 30	10	70	4:45	Touchdown
3	PIT	PIT 26	8	22	4:15	Punt
4	IND	IND 5	7	17	3:49	Punt
5	PIT	PIT 41	4	4	1:58	Punt
6	IND	IND 32	1	-9	0:09	Fumble
7	PIT	IND 3	4	2	0:50	Touchdown
8	IND	IND 15	14	85	7:12	Touchdown
9	PIT	PIT 25	5	0	1:45	Punt
10	IND	PIT 43	3	43	0:48	Touchdown
11	PIT	PIT 9	9	28	2:14	Punt
12	IND	IND 19	4	11	1:34	Punt
13	PIT	PIT 43	3	37	0:14	End of half
14	IND	IND 25	11	60	5:37	Turnover on downs
15	PIT	PIT 20	11	75	4:22	Turnover on downs
16	IND	IND 2	4	5	1:38	Punt
17	PIT	IND 39	2	39	0:07	Touchdown
18	IND	IND 28	5	3	1:33	Punt
19	PIT	PIT 26	6	29	1:51	Touchdown
20	IND	IND 27	7	20	2:46	Punt
21	PIT	PIT 16	11	84	4:28	Touchdown
22	IND	IND 30	4	17	1:33	Interception
23	PIT	PIT 9	9	35	3:47	Punt
24	IND	IND 15	11	43	1:04	Turnover on downs
25	PIT	PIT 33	2	0	1:14	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 85 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	21/34	270	1	1	5	-6.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	18	74	4.1	2	3.8
Nyheim Miller-Hines	8	44	5.5	0	1.8
Ashton Dulin	1	8	8.0	0	0.5
Jacoby Brissett	1	1	1.0	0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zach Pascal	3	6	64	1	18%	2.9
T.Y. Hilton	3	7	60	0	21%	1.3
Jack Doyle	4	6	50	0	18%	3.1
Michael Pittman	3	6	38	0	18%	-0.2
Nyheim Miller-Hines	4	4	20	0	12%	-0.2
Mo Alie-Cox	1	1	20	0	3%	1.7
Trey Burton	3	4	18	0	12%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Shaquille Leonard	4	6	0.0	0
Khari Willis	3	3	1.0	1
T.J. Carrie	3	3	0.0	1
Kenny Moore	4	2	0.0	1
Xavier Rhodes	3	2	0.0	1
Rock Ya-Sin	2	2	0.0	1
Bobby Okereke	3	0	0.0	0
Tavon Wilson	3	0	0.0	0
Denico Autry	1	2	0.0	0
Ashton Dulin	1	1	0.0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	34/49	341	3	0	1	3.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	5	21	4.2	1	1.4
Diontae Johnson	1	2	2.0	0	-0.4
Benny Snell	6	0	0.0	0	-4.6
Ben Roethlisberger	2	-1	-0.5	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
JuJu Smith-Schuster	9	13	96	1	27%	2.7
Diontae Johnson	8	14	74	1	29%	-0.9
Chase Claypool	4	6	54	0	12%	0.7
Eric Ebron	5	7	47	1	14%	1.6
James Conner	5	5	45	0	10%	2.6
James Washington	2	3	20	0	6%	-1.7
Vance McDonald	1	1	5	0	2%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Avery Williamson	8	5	1.0	0	0
Alex Highsmith	3	4	0.0	0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	4	2	0.0	0	1
Steven Nelson	5	0	0.0	0	0
Cameron Heyward	2	3	1.0	0	0
Mike Hilton	2	2	0.0	1	2
Terrell Edmunds	2	2	0.0	0	0
Joe Haden	1	1	0.0	0	0
T.J. Watt	2	0	2.0	0	0
Justin Layne	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -1
Closing total: 43
IND moneyline: -106
PIT moneyline: -104

Colts closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43; the game landed 52 — over by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 37°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: IND 7 days · PIT 6 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Mike Tomlin