For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Colts172 of 180 plays carry both curves
(1:19) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep right to 14-Z.Pascal [56-A.Highsmith].
Swing +18.2 for SteelersExpected points +1.42 for SteelersThe model had Colts 2 points higher than the market did.play 177
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:19IND +18% win prob(1:19) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep right to 14-Z.Pascal [56-A.Highsmith].
4th · 7:43PIT +16% win prob(7:43) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:39PIT +13% win prob(1:39) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 13-T.Hilton pushed ob at PIT 35 for 21 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
2nd · 14:46IND +12% win prob(14:46) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at IND 24 for -8 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt), touched at IND 23, RECOVERED by PIT-28-M.Hilton at IND 17. 28-M.Hilton to IND 3 for 14 yards (28-J.Taylor).
4th · 6:12IND +12% win prob(6:12) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 28-M.Hilton at PIT 12. 28-M.Hilton to PIT 9 for -3 yards (11-M.Pittman).
4th · 8:19PIT +11% win prob(8:19) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 30-J.Conner pushed ob at IND 30 for 9 yards (53-D.Leonard).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
JuJu Smith-Schuster's 25-yard touchdown catch with 7:43 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
2nd4:08Zach Pascal·42-yd TD catch42-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers+721–7
3rd9:25Rodrigo Blankenship·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+324–7
3rd3:23Diontae Johnson·39-yd TD catch39-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+724–14
4th14:57Eric Ebron·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+724–21
4th7:43JuJu Smith-Schuster·25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben RoethlisbergerLead never changed again+724–28
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categorySteelers
Colts4–4Steelers
365Total yards355
5.4Yards per play5.7
49%Success rate48%
38%Third-down rate36%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays5
20First downs22
5Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Steelers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.00Colts: +0.00 expected points added per play
−0.01Steelers: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.16Colts: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.06Steelers: +0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.24Colts: +0.24 expected points added per play
−0.29Steelers: −0.29 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 67 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Steelers’s 62 at 81%. Red-zone trips: Colts 4, Steelers 5.
NoteColts outgained Steelers 365-355 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PIT's early-down pass rate, 80.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 1.7 points clear of the next team along.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
PIT's pass rate over expected, +22.7 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 6.7 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 15.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 33 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.4 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.36× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Steelers23.1%
right on their number · −0.0 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.00× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePIT's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 80.0%, 19.1 points above their season mean of 60.9% and 1.6 times their own 12.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Rivers sacked−20% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:46) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at IND 24 for -8 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt), touched at IND 23, RECOVERED by PIT-28-M.Hilton at IND 17. 28-M.Hilton to IND 3 for 14 yards (28-J.Taylor).
Q2 14:46 · Colts · 1st & 10 at IND 32 · lost 9 · -7.55 EP · −20.4% win probability
170 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 85 yards from the IND 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
48%
Yards
719
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60+0.0483%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.1170%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.1747%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.410%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays
Colts6Steelers0
Colts7Steelers0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Steelers 4
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 26 to midfield
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 5 to the Colts 22
The period ended4 plays, from the Steelers 41 to the Steelers 43
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt1 play
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost1 play
Colts7Steelers6
Colts7Steelers7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Colts 3 to the Colts 1
Colts13Steelers7
Colts14Steelers7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Colts 15 to the Steelers 1
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 26
Colts20Steelers7
Colts21Steelers7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Steelers 43 to the Steelers 42
Punt9 plays, from the Steelers 9 to the Steelers 37
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 19 to the Colts 24
The period ended5 plays, from the Steelers 43 to the Colts 40
3rd quarter42 plays
Colts24Steelers7
Field goal12 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Steelers 7
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Colts 1
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 2 to the Colts 7
Colts24Steelers13
Colts24Steelers14
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 28 to the Colts 31
The period ended6 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Colts 27
4th quarter53 plays
Colts24Steelers20
Colts24Steelers21
Touchdown3 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Colts 5
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 27 to midfield
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Colts24Steelers27
Colts24Steelers28
Touchdown13 plays, from the Steelers 16 to the Colts 25
Intercepted4 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 47
Punt11 plays, from the Steelers 9 to the Steelers 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Colts 15 to the Steelers 33
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Colts -1
Closing total
43
Colts moneyline
-106
Steelers moneyline
-104
Colts closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43; the game landed 52 — over by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Heinz Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 35°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the south; mainly clear.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Colts 7 days · Steelers 6 days
Coaches
Frank Reich vs Mike Tomlin
4th · 1:55PIT +10% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 13-T.Hilton INTERCEPTED by 22-S.Nelson at IND 44. 22-S.Nelson to IND 44 for no gain. PENALTY on PIT-22-S.Nelson, Defensive Pass Interference, 9 yards, enforced at IND 31 - No Play.
2nd · 4:08PIT +9% win prob(4:08) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 14-Z.Pascal for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
