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DYNATYZE
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DYNATYZE
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Seattle Seahawks 20, Rams 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 13:35, 3rd and 8, on David Moore — 16.2 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Seahawks closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 11.
Seattle Seahawks 20–9. Biggest swing: Q3 13:35, Seahawks +16.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 13:35 · 3rd and 8
David Moore
Seahawks
(13:35) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 83-D.Moore to LA 23 for 45 yards (31-D.Williams).
16.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetRamsQ2 6:41(6:41) 6-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to SEA 42, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 29-D.Reed. PENALTY on SEA-35-R.Neal, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at LA 19 - No Play.
10.5pts
Quandre DiggsSeahawksQ2 3:45(3:45) 16-J.Goff pass deep right intended for 17-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 37-Q.Diggs at SEA 10. 37-Q.Diggs to SEA 35 for 25 yards (63-A.Corbett).
14.0pts
What separated them
Red zone
Seahawks won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Rams at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — no giveaways, against Rams at 1 giveaway.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.03 expected points per snap, against Rams at -0.13 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — -0.10 expected points per carry, against Rams at -0.27 expected points per carry.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Rams170 of 182 plays carry both curves
(13:35) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 83-D.Moore to LA 23 for 45 yards (31-D.Williams).
Swing +16.2 for SeahawksExpected points +4.20 for SeahawksModel and market agree here.play 107
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 13:35SEA +16% win prob(13:35) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 83-D.Moore to LA 23 for 45 yards (31-D.Williams).
2nd · 3:45LA +14% win prob(3:45) 16-J.Goff pass deep right intended for 17-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 37-Q.Diggs at SEA 10. 37-Q.Diggs to SEA 35 for 25 yards (63-A.Corbett).
2nd · 6:41SEA +11% win prob(6:41) 6-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to SEA 42, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 29-D.Reed. PENALTY on SEA-35-R.Neal, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at LA 19 - No Play.
2nd · 2:00SEA +10% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf to LA 27 for 17 yards (32-J.Fuller; 41-K.Young).
2nd · 9:38SEA +9% win prob(9:38) 1-M.Gay 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
3rd · 3:17LA +9% win prob(3:17) 34-M.Brown right tackle to SEA 1 for no gain (56-J.Brooks).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Russell Wilson's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 10:38 left in the 3rd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:21Matt Gay·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+33–0
2nd12:48Jason Myers·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+33–3
2nd9:38Matt Gay·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+36–3
2nd1:09Jason Myers·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+36–6
3rd10:38Russell Wilson·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+76–13
4th12:52Matt Gay·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+39–13
4th2:56Jacob Hollister·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+79–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categorySeahawks
Rams3–5Seahawks
334Total yards293
4.5Yards per play5.0
33%Success rate34%
47%Third-down rate50%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays5
19First downs15
3Sacks taken5
1Turnovers0
The read
Seahawks ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.13Rams: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.03Seahawks: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.08Rams: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.11Seahawks: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.27Rams: −0.27 expected points added per play
−0.10Seahawks: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 75 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 59 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Rams 2, Seahawks 3.
NoteRams outgained Seahawks 334-293 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Seahawks17.3%
right on their number · +2.4 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was LA's early-down pass rate, 63.0% against a season mean of 55.2% — and LA swings 9.3 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass+16% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(13:35) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 83-D.Moore to LA 23 for 45 yards (31-D.Williams).
Q3 13:35 · Seahawks · 3rd & 8 at SEA 32 · gained 45 · +4.20 EP · +15.7% win probability
168 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 80 yards from the SEA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
33%
Yards
626
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.0583%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.1565%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.2830%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.1150%
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.2617%
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 10 to the Rams 19
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 46 to the Rams 49
Rams3Seahawks0
Field goal15 plays, from the Rams 13 to the Seahawks 25
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 47
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Rams 21
The period ended4 plays, from the Seahawks 39 to the Seahawks 46
2nd quarter63 plays
Rams3Seahawks3
Field goal7 plays, from the Rams 44 to the Rams 24
Rams6Seahawks3
Field goal13 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Seahawks 33
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 30
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.5 seconds
Intercepted12 plays, from the Rams 14 to the Seahawks 29
Rams6Seahawks6
Field goal11 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Rams 23
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 34
The period ended9 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Seahawks 35
3rd quarter32 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.3 seconds
Rams6Seahawks12
Rams6Seahawks13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Rams 4
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Seahawks 1
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 1 to the Seahawks 8
The period ended5 plays, from the Seahawks 44 to the Seahawks 33
4th quarter47 plays
Rams9Seahawks13
Field goal6 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Seahawks 15
Punt9 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the Seahawks 46
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 12 to midfield
Rams9Seahawks19
Rams9Seahawks20
Touchdown12 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Rams 13
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Rams 17 to the Rams 25
The period ended5 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Rams 19
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Ramscategory by categorySeahawks
Rams3
Seahawks0
