2020 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27, 2020 · Lumen Field

Los Angeles Rams

Seattle SeahawksWinner

SEA -1.5 ✓U 48 ✓Seahawks closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 11.

Seattle Seahawks 20–9. Biggest swing: Q3 13:35, SEA +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 13:35LA — SEA SEA ball · 3rd & 8SEA 53%

(13:35) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 83-D.Moore to LA 23 for 45 yards (31-D.Williams).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 13:35SEA +16% win prob(13:35) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 83-D.Moore to LA 23 for 45 yards (31-D.Williams).
Q2 · 3:45LA +14% win prob(3:45) 16-J.Goff pass deep right intended for 17-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 37-Q.Diggs at SEA 10. 37-Q.Diggs to SEA 35 for 25 yards (63-A.Corbett).
Q2 · 6:41SEA +11% win prob(6:41) 6-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to SEA 42, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 29-D.Reed. PENALTY on SEA-35-R.Neal, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at LA 19 - No Play.
Q2 · 2:00SEA +10% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf to LA 27 for 17 yards (32-J.Fuller; 41-K.Young).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Seahawks
Offensive plays	75	59
Total yards	334 (edge)	293
Yards per play	4.5	5.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.13	0.03 (edge)
Success rate	33%	34% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08	0.11 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.27	-0.10 (edge)
Third downs	9/19	8/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	5
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Rams outgained Seahawks 334–293 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Jared GoffQB

24/43, 234 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-2.4 expected points added · -9.2% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

20/32, 225 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

3.3 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Chris CarsonRB

16 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Darrell HendersonRB

12 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

8/9 for 66 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Josh ReynoldsWR

6/10 for 65 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · -0.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LA	LA 10	5	9	1:24	Punt
2	SEA	SEA 46	4	5	1:22	Punt
3	LA	LA 13	14	67	5:57	Turnover on downs
4	SEA	SEA 25	7	12	3:14	Punt
5	LA	LA 12	4	9	2:19	Punt
6	SEA	SEA 39	9	39	3:01	Turnover on downs
7	LA	LA 25	11	37	3:10	Turnover on downs
8	SEA	SEA 25	5	5	0:56	Punt
9	LA	LA 14	10	47	5:06	Interception
10	SEA	SEA 35	9	34	2:27	Turnover on downs
11	LA	LA 25	5	9	0:22	Punt
12	SEA	SEA 16	6	21	0:42	End of half
13	SEA	SEA 30	9	70	4:28	Touchdown
14	LA	LA 30	13	69	7:17	Turnover on downs
15	SEA	SEA 1	4	2	1:10	Punt
16	LA	SEA 44	10	29	4:16	Turnover on downs
17	SEA	SEA 26	8	20	3:30	Punt
18	LA	LA 12	7	36	1:59	Punt
19	SEA	SEA 20	10	80	4:29	Touchdown
20	LA	LA 17	8	22	1:00	Turnover on downs
21	SEA	LA 24	3	5	1:51	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 80 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	24/43	234	0	1	3	-2.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Darrell Henderson	12	62	5.2	0.8
Malcolm Brown	7	27	3.9	-5.0
Jared Goff	7	23	3.3	-2.7
Josh Reynolds	1	5	5.0	0.1
Robert Woods	2	1	0.5	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	8	9	66	22%	8.6
Josh Reynolds	6	10	65	24%	-0.7
Robert Woods	4	9	48	22%	-4.5
Tyler Higbee	3	6	34	15%	-2.1
Gerald Everett	2	3	13	7%	2.6
Malcolm Brown	1	3	8	7%	-0.4
Van Jefferson	0	1	0	2%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Troy Reeder	5	5	0.0	0
Darious Williams	4	2	0.0	1
Jordan Fuller	4	2	0.0	0
Leonard Floyd	4	2	2.0	0
John Johnson	4	1	0.0	0
Kenny Young	1	2	0.0	0
Sebastian Joseph	2	1	1.0	0
Michael Brockers	2	1	0.0	0
Justin Hollins	1	1	0.0	1
Aaron Donald	1	1	1.0	0

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	20/32	225	1	0	5	3.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chris Carson	16	69	4.3	0	-1.8
Russell Wilson	3	9	3.0	1	-2.2
Rashaad Penny	3	9	3.0	0	-0.3
Carlos Hyde	2	8	4.0	0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DK Metcalf	6	8	59	0	28%	5.1
David Moore	1	1	45	0	3%	4.2
Tyler Lockett	3	5	44	0	17%	0.9
Carlos Hyde	1	1	18	0	3%	2.4
Will Dissly	3	3	17	0	10%	-0.1
Jacob Hollister	2	6	17	1	21%	0.8
Greg Olsen	1	2	15	0	7%	1.0
Chris Carson	3	3	10	0	10%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jamal Adams	6	2	0.0	0	1
D.J. Reed	3	5	0.0	0	0
K.J. Wright	3	4	0.0	0	2
Quandre Diggs	4	2	0.0	1	1
Shaquill Griffin	4	2	0.0	0	1
Bobby Wagner	5	1	0.0	0	0
Jordyn Brooks	5	1	0.0	0	0
Ugochukwu Amadi	3	1	0.0	0	1
Jarran Reed	3	0	2.0	0	0
Poona Ford	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -1.5
Closing total: 48
LA moneyline: +115
SEA moneyline: -127

Seahawks closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 48; the game landed 29 — under by 19.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lumen Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 45°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: LA 7 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Pete Carroll

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.