2020 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 26, 2020 · Allegiant Stadium

Miami DolphinsWinner

Las Vegas Raiders

MIA -2 no coverO 50 ✓DomeDolphins closed -2, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Miami Dolphins 26–25 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:56, LV +39% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 3:56MIA — LV LV ball · 1st & 20MIA 56%

(3:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 3:56LV +39% win prob(3:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:19LV +39% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 86-M.Hollins pushed ob at LV 41 for 34 yards (31-I.Johnson) [99-A.Key]. PENALTY on LV-99-A.Key, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at LV 41.
Q4 · 3:08LV +35% win prob(3:08) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 37-M.Gaskin for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:28LV +28% win prob(2:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to 15-N.Agholor (24-By.Jones). PENALTY on MIA-24-By.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 49 yards, enforced at LV 29 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Raiders
Offensive plays	62	59
Total yards	384	421 (edge)
Yards per play	6.2	7.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.11 (edge)	0.01
Success rate	45%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	65%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.17 (edge)	0.01
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01	0.02 (edge)
Third downs	5/15 (edge)	0/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Raiders outgained Dolphins 421–384 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

21/34, 336 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-0.1 expected points added · +0.6% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Ryan FitzpatrickQB

9/13, 182 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

11.6 expected points added · +11.2% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Myles GaskinRB

14 att, 87 yds, 0 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

13 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Nelson AgholorWR

5/6 for 155 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 9.5 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Darren WallerTE

5/6 for 112 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 25	5	2	1:18	Punt
2	MIA	MIA 22	4	2	2:21	Punt
3	LV	MIA 43	8	43	2:56	Touchdown
4	MIA	MIA 25	13	61	7:02	Turnover on downs
5	LV	LV 25	8	33	3:28	Punt
6	MIA	MIA 8	4	5	1:38	Punt
7	LV	LV 38	12	57	4:31	Turnover on downs
8	MIA	MIA 25	12	54	5:04	Turnover on downs
9	LV	LV 25	9	50	1:31	Turnover on downs
10	MIA	MIA 25	2	0	0:11	End of half
11	MIA	MIA 25	11	75	4:29	Touchdown
12	LV	LV 25	6	21	2:00	Turnover on downs
13	MIA	LV 46	4	-5	1:40	Punt
14	LV	LV 18	8	80	4:21	Turnover on downs
15	MIA	MIA 25	5	-1	1:37	Punt
16	LV	LV 20	6	32	2:22	Punt
17	MIA	MIA 20	4	0	2:13	Punt
18	LV	MIA 45	4	-2	1:31	Punt
19	MIA	MIA 12	13	84	5:46	Turnover on downs
20	LV	LV 25	3	85	0:24	Touchdown
21	MIA	MIA 25	5	75	0:42	Touchdown
22	LV	LV 25	8	20	2:36	Turnover on downs
23	MIA	MIA 25	4	34	0:18	Turnover on downs
24	LV	—	1	0	0:01	Fumble

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 85 scrimmage yards over 3 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Fitzpatrick	9/13	182	1	0	0	11.6
Tua Tagovailoa	17/22	94	1	0	3	-7.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Myles Gaskin	14	87	6.2	1.5
Clayton Fejedelem	1	22	22.0	3.4
Tua Tagovailoa	3	11	3.7	3.1
Lynn Bowden	1	8	8.0	1.0
Salvon Ahmed	6	2	0.3	-5.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Myles Gaskin	5	5	82	2	15%	6.3
Mike Gesicki	4	7	54	0	21%	0.9
Jakeem Grant	5	6	43	0	18%	2.0
Mack Hollins	2	4	42	0	12%	1.1
Isaiah Ford	4	5	37	0	15%	2.8
Lynn Bowden	2	3	8	0	9%	-1.5
Durham Smythe	2	2	6	0	6%	-0.7
Adam Shaheen	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.3
Salvon Ahmed	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jerome Baker	7	3	1.0	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	7	1	2.0	1
Eric Rowe	5	2	0.0	0
Kyle Van Noy	3	3	0.0	0
Byron Jones	1	3	0.0	0
Zach Sieler	2	1	0.0	0
Bobby McCain	3	0	0.0	0
Brandon Jones	2	1	0.0	0
Christian Wilkins	2	0	0.0	0
Raekwon Davis	1	1	0.0	0

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	21/34	336	1	0	3	-0.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Jacobs	13	69	5.3	0	-0.6
Jalen Richard	2	19	9.5	0	0.5
Devontae Booker	6	11	1.8	0	-0.2
Henry Ruggs	1	7	7.0	0	0.2
Derek Carr	2	-2	-1.0	1	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nelson Agholor	5	6	155	1	20%	9.5
Darren Waller	5	6	112	0	20%	6.8
Hunter Renfrow	5	5	34	0	17%	-0.5
Jason Witten	2	5	12	0	17%	-2.6
Bryan Edwards	1	1	11	0	3%	0.7
Devontae Booker	2	2	8	0	7%	0.1
Jalen Richard	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.1
Josh Jacobs	0	2	0	0	7%	-1.0
Henry Ruggs	0	2	0	0	7%	-2.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Cory Littleton	8	1	0.0	0
Raekwon McMillan	6	3	0.0	0
Johnathan Abram	2	3	0.0	0
Lamarcus Joyner	5	0	0.0	0
Dallin Leavitt	1	3	0.0	1
Johnathan Hankins	4	0	1.0	0
Damon Arnette	2	1	0.0	0
Kyle Wilber	2	1	0.0	0
Nevin Lawson	1	2	0.0	1
Maurice Hurst	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -2
Closing total: 50
MIA moneyline: -125
LV moneyline: +113

Dolphins closed -2, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 50; the game landed 51 — over by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: MIA 6 days · LV 9 days
Coaches: Brian Flores vs Jon Gruden