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Miami Dolphins 26, Raiders 25 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 3:56, 1st and 20, on Nelson Agholor — 39.2 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:56 · 1st and 20
Nelson Agholor
Raiders
(3:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Dolphins closed -2, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Miami Dolphins 26–25 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:56, Raiders +39.2% win probability on one snap.
39.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Myles GaskinDolphinsQ4 3:08(3:08) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 37-M.Gaskin for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
35.5pts
Mack HollinsDolphinsQ4 0:19(:19) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 86-M.Hollins pushed ob at LV 41 for 34 yards (31-I.Johnson) [99-A.Key]. PENALTY on LV-99-A.Key, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at LV 41.
38.8pts
What separated them
Third down
Dolphins won this one — 5 of 15 on third down, against Raiders at 0 of 9 on third down.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 6 chunk plays.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Dolphins won this one — no giveaways, against Raiders at 1 giveaway.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.17 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at +0.01 expected points per dropback.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Dolphins166 of 178 plays carry both curves
(3:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +39.2 for RaidersExpected points +6.74 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 9 points higher than the market did.play 152
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:56LV +39% win prob(3:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:19LV +39% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 86-M.Hollins pushed ob at LV 41 for 34 yards (31-I.Johnson) [99-A.Key]. PENALTY on LV-99-A.Key, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at LV 41.
4th · 3:08LV +35% win prob(3:08) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 37-M.Gaskin for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:28LV +28% win prob(2:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to 15-N.Agholor (24-By.Jones). PENALTY on MIA-24-By.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 49 yards, enforced at LV 29 - No Play.
4th · 0:06LV +27% win prob(:06) 7-J.Sanders 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-B.Ferguson, Holder-2-M.Haack.
4th · 0:01MIA +23% win prob7-J.Sanders kicks 23 yards from MIA 35 to LV 42. 23-D.Booker (didn't try to advance) to LV 40 for -2 yards. Lateral to 85-D.Carrier (didn't try to advance) to LV 35 for -5 yards. Lateral to 22-K.Nixon to LV 39 for 4 yards (42-C.Fejedelem). FUMBLES (42-C.Fejedelem), RECOVERED by MIA-42-C.Fejedelem at LV 38.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jason Sanders's 44-yard field goal with 0:06 left in the 4th put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th3:08Myles Gaskin·59-yd TD catch59-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Fitzpatrickfrom Ryan Fitzpatrick+723–22
4th0:23Daniel Carlson·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+323–25
4th0:06Jason Sanders·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap B.FergusonLead never changed again+326–25
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categoryRaiders
Dolphins2–5Raiders
384Total yards421
6.2Yards per play7.1
45%Success rate46%
33%Third-down rate0%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays9
16First downs20
3Sacks taken3
0Turnovers1
The read
Raiders ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Dolphins, in third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Dolphins: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.01Raiders: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.17Dolphins: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.01Raiders: +0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Dolphins: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.02Raiders: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 62 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Raiders’s 59 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 5, Raiders 6.
NoteRaiders outgained Dolphins 421-384 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LV's pass rate over expected turned over: −11.4 pts in week 15 against +4.8 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 19 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Raiders15.0%
right on their number · +2.8 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLV's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 4.8 pts, 7.2 points above their season mean of -2.5 pts and 1.3 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Fitzpatrick pass+37% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:19) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 86-M.Hollins pushed ob at LV 41 for 34 yards (31-I.Johnson) [99-A.Key]. PENALTY on LV-99-A.Key, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at LV 41.
Q4 0:19 · Dolphins · 1st & 10 at MIA 25 · gained 34 · +2.06 EP · +37.1% win probability
164 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 85 yards from the LV 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
41%
Yards
801
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR36+0.3875%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.2763%
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR20-0.4540%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.2880%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.1667%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.7925%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 28
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 22 to the Dolphins 24
Dolphins0Raiders6
Dolphins0Raiders7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 43 to the Dolphins 1
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Dolphins3Raiders7
Field goal14 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Raiders 18
The period ended5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 36
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Dolphins 33
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 8 to the Dolphins 13
Dolphins3Raiders10
Field goal13 plays, from the Raiders 38 to the Dolphins 5
Dolphins6Raiders10
Field goal13 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Raiders 19
Dolphins6Raiders13
Field goal12 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Dolphins 20
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Dolphins12Raiders13
Dolphins13Raiders13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Raiders 10
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 47
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 46 to the Raiders 45
Dolphins13Raiders16
Field goal8 plays, from the Raiders 18 to the Dolphins 2
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 32
The period ended3 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 23
4th quarter55 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 45 to the Dolphins 48
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Dolphins 21
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 45 to the Dolphins 43
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Dolphins16Raiders16
Field goal14 plays, from the Dolphins 12 to the Raiders 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw8.1 seconds
Dolphins16Raiders22
Touchdown4 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Dolphins22Raiders22
Dolphins23Raiders22
Touchdown5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 41
Dolphins23Raiders25
Field goal14 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Dolphins 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Dolphins26Raiders25
Field goal4 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Raiders 26
Fumble lost1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
