2020 Week 16 · Fri, Dec 25, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Minnesota Vikings

New Orleans SaintsWinner

NO -6.5 ✓O 49 ✓DomeSaints closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 19.

New Orleans Saints 52–33 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 0:28, NO +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 0:28MIN — NO MIN ball · 2nd & 4NO 88%

(:28) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 84-I.Smith for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 0:28NO +9% win prob(:28) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 84-I.Smith for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 14:53NO +8% win prob(14:53) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 87-J.Cook pushed ob at MIN 19 for 44 yards (26-C.Jones). Pass 15, YAC 29
Q1 · 12:19NO +8% win prob(12:19) 41-A.Kamara left guard for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 11:00MIN +8% win prob(11:00) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 17-E.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 47-H.Nickerson at NO 23. 47-H.Nickerson pushed ob at NO 18 for 5 yards (17-E.Sanders).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Saints
Offensive plays	61	70
Total yards	364	586 (edge)
Yards per play	6.0	8.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.16	0.41 (edge)
Success rate	51%	66% (edge)
Dropback rate	72%	40%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14	0.39 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23	0.42 (edge)
Third downs	3/9	5/8 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	24	35 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs 0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

19/26, 311 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

10.6 expected points added · +6.3% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

27/41, 291 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

6.0 expected points added · +1.0% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

22 att, 155 yds, 6 TD

10.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

15 att, 73 yds, 1 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Adam ThielenWR

8/9 for 97 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

6/10 for 85 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	8	75	2:49	Touchdown
2	MIN	MIN 25	10	75	3:25	Touchdown
3	NO	NO 34	9	61	3:36	Touchdown
4	MIN	MIN 25	7	20	1:22	Punt
5	NO	NO 4	10	84	4:36	Turnover on downs
6	MIN	MIN 25	10	75	3:58	Touchdown
7	NO	NO 25	9	60	5:10	Interception
8	MIN	MIN 12	4	0	1:49	Punt
9	NO	MIN 46	8	46	2:37	Touchdown
10	MIN	MIN 25	4	21	0:38	End of half
11	MIN	MIN 25	7	20	2:41	Defensive touchdown
12	NO	NO 10	3	13	1:26	Interception
13	MIN	NO 18	4	18	1:12	Touchdown
14	NO	NO 26	12	74	5:03	Touchdown
15	MIN	MIN 25	11	53	4:16	Touchdown
16	NO	NO 33	9	67	3:21	Touchdown
17	MIN	MIN 25	5	-6	1:39	Punt
18	NO	NO 42	11	58	6:22	Touchdown
19	MIN	MIN 25	11	80	1:50	Touchdown
20	NO	MIN 48	5	48	0:20	Touchdown
21	MIN	MIN 25	5	8	0:23	Turnover on downs
22	NO	MIN 33	3	0	1:27	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 84 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	27/41	291	3	0	2	6.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dalvin Cook	15	73	4.9	1	1.5
Ameer Abdullah	1	13	13.0	0	1.4
Mike Boone	1	4	4.0	1	1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Adam Thielen	8	9	97	1	24%	3.7
Justin Jefferson	6	10	85	0	26%	1.6
Irv Smith	6	9	53	2	24%	5.1
Tyler Conklin	4	6	31	0	16%	0.9
Olabisi Johnson	1	1	13	0	3%	0.7
Dalvin Cook	2	2	12	0	5%	0.3
Ameer Abdullah	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Blake Lynch	7	3	0	0
Eric Wilson	6	3	0	2
Harrison Smith	5	3	0	0
Anthony Harris	1	7	0	0
Hardy Nickerson	3	2	1	1
Jeff Gladney	3	2	0	0
Hercules Mata'afa	2	2	0	0
Chris Jones	3	0	0	0
Armon Watts	1	2	0	0
Harrison Hand	2	1	1	2

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	19/26	311	0	2	0	10.6
Taysom Hill	2/2	8	0	0	0	0.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	22	155	7.0	6	10.6
Latavius Murray	12	72	6.0	0	2.2
Taysom Hill	5	18	3.6	1	3.2
Emmanuel Sanders	1	12	12.0	0	1.1
Michael Burton	2	10	5.0	0	0.5
Drew Brees	3	-3	-1.0	0	-2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Emmanuel Sanders	4	5	83	18%	-0.9
Jared Cook	3	4	82	14%	2.7
Adam Trautman	2	2	45	7%	4.4
Marquez Callaway	3	4	26	14%	1.6
Latavius Murray	3	3	24	11%	2.5
Taysom Hill	1	1	19	4%	1.1
Juwan Johnson	1	1	19	4%	1.2
Alvin Kamara	3	5	17	18%	-0.9
Michael Burton	1	1	4	4%	0.5
Ty Montgomery	0	1	0	4%	-0.9
Austin Carr	0	1	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Demario Davis	6	2	0.0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	5	1	0.5	0
Marshon Lattimore	4	1	0.0	2
P.J. Williams	3	1	0.0	0
Janoris Jenkins	2	2	0.0	1
Kwon Alexander	3	0	0.0	0
David Onyemata	0	3	0.5	0
Cameron Jordan	2	1	1.0	0
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	2	1	0.0	1
D.J. Swearinger	3	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -6.5
Closing total: 49
MIN moneyline: +260
NO moneyline: -302

Saints closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 19.

Total closed 49; the game landed 85 — over by 36.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: MIN 5 days · NO 5 days
Coaches: Mike Zimmer vs Sean Payton