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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
Minnesota Vikings 33 at New Orleans Saints 52. Final.
Saints -6.5 ✓O 49 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 16
New Orleans Saints 52, Vikings 33 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 0:28, 2nd and 4, on Irv Smith — 8.7 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 0:28 · 2nd and 4
Irv Smith
Vikings
(:28) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 84-I.Smith for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Saints closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 19.
New Orleans Saints 52–33 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 0:28, Vikings +8.7% win probability on one snap.
8.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Alvin KamaraSaintsQ1 12:19(12:19) 41-A.Kamara left guard for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.9pts
Jared CookSaintsQ4 14:53(14:53) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 87-J.Cook pushed ob at MIN 19 for 44 yards (26-C.Jones). Pass 15, YAC 29
8.2pts
What separated them
Third down
Saints won this one — 5 of 8 on third down, against Vikings at 3 of 9 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 66% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 51% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Saints won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Vikings at 7 chunk plays.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 5 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Saints at 6 touchdowns on 9 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Vikings173 of 186 plays carry both curves
(:28) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 84-I.Smith for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −8.7 for SaintsExpected points −1.41 for SaintsThe model had Vikings 9 points higher than the market did.play 128
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 0:28NO +9% win prob(:28) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 84-I.Smith for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 14:53NO +8% win prob(14:53) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 87-J.Cook pushed ob at MIN 19 for 44 yards (26-C.Jones). Pass 15, YAC 29
1st · 12:19NO +8% win prob(12:19) 41-A.Kamara left guard for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 11:00MIN +8% win prob(11:00) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 17-E.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 47-H.Nickerson at NO 23. 47-H.Nickerson pushed ob at NO 18 for 5 yards (17-E.Sanders).
1st · 13:00NO +7% win prob(13:00) 17-E.Sanders left end to MIN 40 for 12 yards (47-H.Nickerson).
2nd · 5:10MIN +6% win prob(5:10) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 87-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 38-H.Hand at MIN 8. 38-H.Hand to MIN 12 for 4 yards (87-J.Cook).
3rd · 1:06
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Alvin Kamara's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 5:14 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Saints ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Vikings: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.41Saints: +0.41 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Vikings: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.39Saints: +0.39 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.23Vikings: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.42Saints: +0.42 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 61 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Saints’s 70 at 40%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 5, Saints 9.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs 0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NO's early-down pass rate, 37.7%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 4.5 points clear of the next team along.
61 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points.
high through week 16Against their seasonOver Expected
MIN's pass rate over expected, +9.2 pts, is past their previous high of +3.1 pts in week 6 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 15.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Saints18.2%
right on their number · +1.2 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 9.2 pts, 14.3 points above their season mean of -5.1 pts and 2.3 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Brees pass−13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(11:00) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 17-E.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 47-H.Nickerson at NO 23. 47-H.Nickerson pushed ob at NO 18 for 5 yards (17-E.Sanders).
Q3 11:00 · Saints · 1st & 10 at NO 23 · gained nothing · -6.26 EP · −12.5% win probability
171 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 84 yards from the NO 4 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
+0.21
Success rate
52%
Yards
947
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27+0.2370%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20+0.2730%
Vikings0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR15+0.15100%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR14+0.2514%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR9-0.3367%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+1.5271%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.6443%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.3633%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.6883%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.88100%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Vikings0Saints6
Vikings0Saints7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Vikings 40
Vikings6Saints7
Vikings7Saints7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Saints 15
Vikings7Saints13
Vikings7Saints14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Vikings 1
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 45
The period ended7 plays, from the Saints 4 to the Vikings 27
2nd quarter45 plays
Vikings7Saints17
Field goal4 plays, from the Vikings 16 to the Vikings 12
Vikings13Saints17
Vikings14Saints17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Saints 4
Intercepted10 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Vikings 20
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 12 to the Vikings 20
Vikings14Saints23
Vikings14Saints24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 46 to the Vikings 5
The period ended6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 38
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 45
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Saints 10 to the Saints 23
Vikings20Saints24
Touchdown4 plays, from the Saints 18 to the Saints 2
Vikings20Saints30
Vikings20Saints31
Touchdown12 plays, from the Saints 26 to the Vikings 6
Vikings26Saints31
Vikings27Saints31
Touchdown14 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Saints 1
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter54 plays
Vikings27Saints37
Vikings27Saints38
Touchdown7 plays, from the Saints 37 to the Vikings 7
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 30
Vikings27Saints44
Vikings27Saints45
Touchdown12 plays, from the Saints 42 to the Vikings 1
Vikings33Saints45
Touchdown14 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Saints 1
Vikings33Saints51
Vikings33Saints52
Touchdown6 plays, from the Vikings 48 to the Vikings 3
Turnover on downs6 plays
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
