2020 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27, 2020 · M&T Bank Stadium

New York Giants

Baltimore RavensWinner

BAL -10 ✓U 43.5 ✓Ravens closed -10 and covered, winning by 14.

Baltimore Ravens 27–13. Biggest swing: Q1 11:30, BAL +3% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 11:30NYG — BAL BAL ball · 2nd & 5BAL 79%

(11:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-M.Brown to NYG 35 for 9 yards (29-X.McKinney).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 11:30BAL +3% win prob(11:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-M.Brown to NYG 35 for 9 yards (29-X.McKinney).
Q1 · 9:35BAL +2% win prob(9:35) (Shotgun) 13-D.Duvernay left end to NYG 20 for 7 yards (47-C.Brown). End around play.
Q1 · 13:36NYG +2% win prob(13:36) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins right guard to BAL 38 for 3 yards (94-D.Tomlinson).
Q4 · 6:29NYG +2% win prob(6:29) 4-S.Koch punts 40 yards to NYG 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-J.Peppers to NYG 32 for 6 yards (41-A.Levine; 49-C.Board).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Giants	Ravens
Offensive plays	59	64
Total yards	269	433 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	6.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.05	0.26 (edge)
Success rate	44%	58% (edge)
Dropback rate	81%	44%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12	0.41 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	0.15
Third downs	1/10	8/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	0 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYG

Daniel JonesQB

24/41, 252 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-5.0 expected points added · -7.4% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

17/26, 183 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

11.2 expected points added · +9.1% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Gus EdwardsRB

15 att, 85 yds, 0 TD

5.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

13 att, 80 yds, 0 TD

-6.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYG

Sterling ShepardWR

9/12 for 77 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Mark AndrewsTE

6/10 for 76 yds, 0 TD

43% of team targets · 1.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 18	15	82	8:12	Touchdown
2	NYG	NYG 25	5	13	1:36	Punt
3	BAL	BAL 35	11	65	5:05	Touchdown
4	NYG	NYG 13	7	18	2:16	Punt
5	BAL	BAL 38	13	70	8:13	Turnover on downs
6	NYG	NYG 23	12	64	3:30	Turnover on downs
7	BAL	BAL 25	11	65	1:08	Turnover on downs
8	NYG	NYG 23	5	7	1:34	Punt
9	BAL	BAL 28	5	39	2:40	Punt
10	NYG	NYG 10	13	76	6:52	Turnover on downs
11	BAL	BAL 41	9	59	3:59	Touchdown
12	NYG	NYG 24	17	56	6:15	Touchdown
13	BAL	BAL 25	5	9	2:23	Punt
14	NYG	NYG 32	5	3	1:30	Turnover on downs
15	BAL	NYG 35	7	44	2:52	Fumble
16	NYG	NYG 2	6	32	1:18	Turnover on downs
17	BAL	NYG 44	1	0	0:37	End of game

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 82 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Daniel Jones	24/41	252	1	0	6	-5.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Wayne Gallman	6	27	4.5	0.4
Dion Lewis	1	15	15.0	1.2
Evan Engram	1	5	5.0	-0.0
Alfred Morris	3	4	1.3	0.9
Daniel Jones	1	3	3.0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Sterling Shepard	9	12	77	1	29%	4.0
Evan Engram	7	10	65	0	24%	-3.0
Dante Pettis	2	3	33	0	7%	1.3
Wayne Gallman	2	2	26	0	5%	2.1
Darius Slayton	2	8	26	0	20%	-0.4
C.J. Board	1	2	16	0	5%	1.2
Alfred Morris	1	1	9	0	2%	1.0
Austin Mack	0	3	0	0	7%	-3.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast
Blake Martinez	6	5
Tae Crowder	5	3
Xavier McKinney	7	1
Logan Ryan	6	1
Jabrill Peppers	3	3
Dexter Lawrence	2	2
James Bradberry	1	2
Dalvin Tomlinson	2	1
Cam Brown	3	0
Adrian Colbert	1	1

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	17/26	183	2	0	0	11.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Gus Edwards	15	85	5.7	0	5.5
Lamar Jackson	13	80	6.2	0	-6.0
J.K. Dobbins	11	77	7.0	1	3.5
Devin Duvernay	1	7	7.0	0	1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mark Andrews	6	10	76	0	43%	1.1
Gus Edwards	2	2	37	0	9%	3.7
Marquise Brown	4	4	25	1	17%	3.0
Willie Snead	2	2	24	0	9%	3.1
Miles Boykin	1	2	13	0	9%	0.6
Dez Bryant	1	1	8	1	4%	1.6
J.K. Dobbins	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.4
Devin Duvernay	1	1	0	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Marlon Humphrey	5	1	0.0	3
Anthony Averett	4	1	0.0	2
Tramon Williams	3	1	0.0	0
Chuck Clark	3	1	0.0	1
DeShon Elliott	3	1	0.0	0
Chris Board	3	1	2.0	0
Patrick Queen	2	2	0.0	0
Matt Judon	3	0	1.0	0
Malik Harrison	3	0	0.0	0
L.J. Fort	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -10
Closing total: 43.5
NYG moneyline: +348
BAL moneyline: -420

Ravens closed -10 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 40 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 38°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: NYG 7 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches: Joe Judge vs John Harbaugh