For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Giants162 of 173 plays carry both curves
(11:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-M.Brown to NYG 35 for 9 yards (29-X.McKinney).
Swing +2.9 for RavensExpected points +0.85 for RavensThe model had Giants 22 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:30BAL +3% win prob(11:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-M.Brown to NYG 35 for 9 yards (29-X.McKinney).
1st · 9:35BAL +2% win prob(9:35) (Shotgun) 13-D.Duvernay left end to NYG 20 for 7 yards (47-C.Brown). End around play.
1st · 13:36NYG +2% win prob(13:36) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins right guard to BAL 38 for 3 yards (94-D.Tomlinson).
4th · 6:29NYG +2% win prob(6:29) 4-S.Koch punts 40 yards to NYG 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-J.Peppers to NYG 32 for 6 yards (41-A.Levine; 49-C.Board).
1st · 12:06BAL +2% win prob(12:06) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left end to NYG 44 for 5 yards (48-T.Crowder).
1st · 1:00BAL +2% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left end to NYG 2 for 17 yards (48-T.Crowder).
1st · 5:24
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Marquise Brown's 6-yard touchdown catch with 6:53 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
4th8:44Sterling Shepard·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+713–27
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryRavens
Giants1–8Ravens
269Total yards433
4.6Yards per play6.8
44%Success rate58%
10%Third-down rate73%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
2Explosive plays8
20First downs25
6Sacks taken0
0Turnovers1
The read
Ravens ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Giants: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.26Ravens: +0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.12Giants: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.41Ravens: +0.41 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.23Giants: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.15Ravens: +0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 59 snaps at a 81% dropback rate against Ravens’s 64 at 44%. Red-zone trips: Giants 3, Ravens 6.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 16Against their seasonTendencies
NYG's early-down pass rate, 78.3%, is past their previous high of 72.7% in week 2 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.1 points.
NYG's pass rate over expected turned over: −6.5 pts in week 15 against +7.8 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −1.5 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Ravens22.9%
inside their normal wobble · +5.4 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 78.3%, 22.5 points above their season mean of 55.7% and 1.9 times their own 12.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass+6% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-M.Brown to NYG 35 for 9 yards (29-X.McKinney).
Q1 11:30 · Ravens · 2nd & 5 at NYG 44 · gained 9 · +0.85 EP · +6.1% win probability
160 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 82 yards from the BAL 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
45%
Yards
701
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.0886%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.4767%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.0775%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR10+0.2820%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR9+0.460%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.1811%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.7371%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Giants0Ravens6
Giants0Ravens7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Ravens 18 to the Giants 6
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 28
Giants0Ravens13
Giants0Ravens14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Giants 2
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 18 to the Giants 36
Giants0Ravens17
Field goal15 plays, from the Ravens 38 to the Giants 2
Giants3Ravens17
Field goal13 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Ravens 13
Giants3Ravens20
Field goal14 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Giants 10
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Giants 30
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 28 to the Giants 33
Giants6Ravens20
Field goal15 plays, from the Giants 10 to the Ravens 19
The period ended8 plays, from the Ravens 41 to the Giants 14
4th quarter53 plays
Giants6Ravens26
Giants6Ravens27
Touchdown2 plays
Giants12Ravens27
Giants13Ravens27
Touchdown21 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Ravens 3
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 34
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Giants 32 to the Giants 44
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Giants 1
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Giants 2 to the Giants 44
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
