2020 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27, 2020 · AT&T Stadium

Philadelphia Eagles

Dallas CowboysWinner

PHI -3 upsetO 50 ✓DomeEagles closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Dallas Cowboys 37–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 12:35, DAL +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 12:35PHI — DAL DAL ball · 3rd & 3DAL 57%

(12:35) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 12:35DAL +16% win prob(12:35) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 6:03DAL +14% win prob(6:03) (Shotgun) 2-J.Hurts pass deep right to 10-D.Jackson for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:16DAL +11% win prob(:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 13-M.Gallup for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 10:16DAL +10% win prob(10:16) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 19-A.Cooper pushed ob at PHI 9 for 69 yards (24-D.Slay).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Cowboys
Offensive plays	71	65
Total yards	477	514 (edge)
Yards per play	6.7	7.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.07	0.16 (edge)
Success rate	44%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	0.36 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	-0.06
Third downs	7/17	6/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	8
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	20
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	4	1 (edge)

Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Andy DaltonQB

22/30, 377 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

11.9 expected points added · +10.1% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

21/39, 342 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-2.3 expected points added · -6.2% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

19 att, 105 yds, 0 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

9 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

-2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

Amari CooperWR

4/6 for 121 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

Michael GallupWR

6/8 for 121 yds, 2 TD

27% of team targets · 10.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PHI	PHI 25	13	55	6:00	Touchdown
2	DAL	DAL 25	7	32	2:52	Turnover on downs
3	PHI	PHI 19	3	81	0:20	Touchdown
4	DAL	DAL 25	5	9	1:20	Punt
5	PHI	PHI 14	4	8	2:04	Punt
6	DAL	DAL 37	11	63	4:15	Touchdown
7	PHI	PHI 16	9	49	3:53	Fumble
8	DAL	DAL 23	7	75	3:23	Turnover on downs
9	PHI	PHI 25	11	55	3:44	Turnover on downs
10	DAL	DAL 25	13	75	1:57	Touchdown
11	PHI	PHI 25	4	37	0:12	End of half
12	DAL	DAL 25	7	75	2:34	Touchdown
13	PHI	PHI 25	5	7	1:33	Punt
14	DAL	DAL 17	6	75	2:22	Turnover on downs
15	PHI	PHI 25	6	33	2:24	Punt
16	DAL	DAL 15	4	9	2:08	Punt
17	PHI	PHI 37	5	17	2:11	Punt
18	DAL	DAL 10	3	17	1:10	Interception
19	PHI	DAL 28	5	23	1:38	Turnover on downs
20	DAL	DAL 25	7	31	3:46	Punt
21	PHI	PHI 13	12	70	3:41	Interception
22	DAL	DAL 20	4	0	2:20	Punt
23	PHI	PHI 39	1	3	0:19	Fumble
24	DAL	DAL 13	6	53	2:01	Touchdown
25	PHI	PHI 25	9	39	1:23	Interception
26	DAL	DAL 31	1	0	0:30	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 81 scrimmage yards over 3 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	21/39	342	1	2	3	-2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jalen Hurts	9	69	7.7	0	-2.7
Miles Sanders	15	57	3.8	1	1.5
Boston Scott	2	17	8.5	0	0.1
Jordan Howard	3	8	2.7	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeSean Jackson	1	1	81	1	3%	6.4
Quez Watkins	2	3	57	0	9%	2.5
Dallas Goedert	3	3	38	0	9%	2.7
Zach Ertz	3	7	33	0	21%	-2.9
Jalen Reagor	3	7	30	0	21%	-3.9
Miles Sanders	4	6	27	0	18%	0.7
Greg Ward	2	3	27	0	9%	2.0
Travis Fulgham	2	3	27	0	9%	-2.6
Alshon Jeffery	1	1	22	0	3%	1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Marcus Epps	7	1	0.0
Alex Singleton	5	3	0.0
T.J. Edwards	2	4	0.0
Javon Hargrave	1	4	0.0
Genard Avery	1	3	0.0
Grayland Arnold	2	2	0.0
Michael Jacquet	3	1	0.0
Jalen Mills	3	1	0.0
K'Von Wallace	2	1	0.0
Brandon Graham	2	1	1.0

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	22/30	377	3	1	2	11.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	19	105	5.5	0	-0.1
CeeDee Lamb	1	19	19.0	1	4.0
Andy Dalton	5	15	3.0	0	-2.0
Tony Pollard	9	12	1.3	0	-3.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amari Cooper	4	6	121	0	20%	4.8
Michael Gallup	6	8	121	2	27%	10.9
CeeDee Lamb	3	5	65	1	17%	-1.6
Ezekiel Elliott	4	4	34	0	13%	1.8
Dalton Schultz	3	4	21	0	13%	-0.5
Tony Pollard	1	2	8	0	7%	-0.4
Blake Bell	1	1	7	0	3%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jaylon Smith	6	5	0.0	0	0
Randy Gregory	3	3	1.5	0	1
Jourdan Lewis	5	1	1.0	0	0
Donovan Wilson	5	1	0.0	0	0
Darian Thompson	1	3	0.0	0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	4	0	0.0	0	0
Sean Lee	3	1	0.0	0	0
Demarcus Lawrence	1	3	0.0	0	0
Anthony Brown	2	1	0.0	1	1
Joe Thomas	3	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -3
Closing total: 50
PHI moneyline: -166
DAL moneyline: +149

Eagles closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 50; the game landed 54 — over by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: PHI 7 days · DAL 7 days
Coaches: Doug Pederson vs Mike McCarthy

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.