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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Eagles185 of 198 plays carry both curves
(12:35) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +16.1 for CowboysExpected points +4.97 for CowboysThe model had Cowboys 15 points higher than the market did.play 105
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 12:35DAL +16% win prob(12:35) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:03DAL +14% win prob(6:03) (Shotgun) 2-J.Hurts pass deep right to 10-D.Jackson for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:16DAL +11% win prob(:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 13-M.Gallup for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 10:16DAL +10% win prob(10:16) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 19-A.Cooper pushed ob at PHI 9 for 69 yards (24-D.Slay).
3rd · 0:50PHI +10% win prob(:50) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Slay at PHI 47. 24-D.Slay to DAL 28 for 25 yards (20-T.Pollard).
2nd · 8:07DAL +10% win prob(8:07) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 13-M.Gallup pushed ob at PHI 9 for 55 yards (31-N.Robey).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Michael Gallup's 7-yard touchdown catch with 0:16 left in the 2nd put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Cowboys ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Eagles: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.16Cowboys: +0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.16Eagles: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.36Cowboys: +0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Eagles: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.06Cowboys: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 71 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 65 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 5, Cowboys 7.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 16Against their seasonFourth Down
PHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 2 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 16.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.2 points.
PHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.5% in week 15 against 21.2% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +3.4 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Cowboys10.4%
right on their number · −2.5 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 47.5 points below their season mean of 47.5% and 2.1 times their own 22.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass+17% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(6:03) (Shotgun) 2-J.Hurts pass deep right to 10-D.Jackson for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 6:03 · Eagles · 1st & 10 at PHI 19 · gained 81 · +6.44 EP · +17.4% win probability
183 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 198 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 198 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 87 yards from the DAL 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
198 of 198 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
198
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
42%
Yards
990
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.2976%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.3069%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28+0.2636%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.0417%
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Eagles0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Eagles2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
198 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
198 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Eagles6Cowboys0
Eagles7Cowboys0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cowboys 3
Eagles7Cowboys3
Field goal8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.3 seconds
Eagles13Cowboys3
Eagles14Cowboys3
Touchdown3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 34
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 14 to the Eagles 22
The period ended7 plays, from the Cowboys 37 to the Eagles 41
2nd quarter57 plays
Eagles14Cowboys9
Eagles14Cowboys10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Eagles 38 to the Eagles 21
Punt10 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Cowboys 35
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.3 seconds
Eagles14Cowboys13
Field goal7 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Eagles 1
Eagles17Cowboys13
Field goal12 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cowboys 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
Eagles17Cowboys19
Eagles17Cowboys20
Touchdown16 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 7
The period ended7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 47
3rd quarter44 plays
Eagles17Cowboys26
Eagles17Cowboys27
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 48
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 32
Eagles17Cowboys30
Field goal9 plays, from the Cowboys 17 to the Eagles 3
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cowboys 32
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 15 to the Cowboys 24
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 37 to the Cowboys 46
Intercepted3 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Cowboys 27
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter55 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Cowboys 36 to the Cowboys 33
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 44
Intercepted14 plays, from the Eagles 13 to the Cowboys 15
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 26
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Eagles 39 to the Cowboys 18
Eagles17Cowboys36
Eagles17Cowboys37
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cowboys 13 to the Eagles 18
Intercepted10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cowboys 41
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
