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2020 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 26, 2020 · State Farm Stadium
Final
49ersSan Francisco20
BY 8final margin
CardinalsArizona12
San Francisco 49ers 20 at Arizona Cardinals 12. Final.
Cardinals -6 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 16
San Francisco 49ers 20, Cardinals 12 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 4:42, 2nd and 11, on Ahkello Witherspoon — 20.3 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:42 · 2nd and 11
Ahkello Witherspoon
49ers
(4:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 23-A.Witherspoon at SF 0. Touchback.
U 49 ✓
Dome
Cardinals closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
San Francisco 49ers 20–12. Biggest swing: Q4 4:42, 49ers +20.3% win probability on one snap.
20.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
KeeSean JohnsonCardinalsQ3 1:08(1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 19-K.Johnson to SF 15 for 45 yards (36-M.Harris; 33-T.Moore).
15.2pts
Kyler MurrayCardinalsQ4 5:51(5:51) 1-K.Murray right end pushed ob at SF 13 for 30 yards (33-T.Moore).
15.5pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 13 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 6 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.18 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.18 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.09 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.27 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on 49ers169 of 182 plays carry both curves
(4:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 23-A.Witherspoon at SF 0. Touchback.
Swing −20.3 for CardinalsExpected points −5.04 for CardinalsThe model had 49ers 8 points higher than the market did.play 161
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 4:42SF +20% win prob(4:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 23-A.Witherspoon at SF 0. Touchback.
4th · 5:51ARI +15% win prob(5:51) 1-K.Murray right end pushed ob at SF 13 for 30 yards (33-T.Moore).
3rd · 1:08ARI +15% win prob(1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 19-K.Johnson to SF 15 for 45 yards (36-M.Harris; 33-T.Moore).
4th · 9:04SF +14% win prob(9:04) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 10-D.Hopkins (54-F.Warner).
3rd · 11:12SF +13% win prob(11:12) 9-R.Gould 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.
2nd · 0:14SF +12% win prob(:14) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard sacked at SF 39 for -9 yards (43-H.Reddick). FUMBLES (43-H.Reddick), touched at 50, RECOVERED by ARI-48-I.Simmons at SF 47. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jeffery Wilson's 21-yard touchdown catch with 2:51 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:14Mike Nugent·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+30–3
49ers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.1849ers: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.18Cardinals: −0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.0949ers: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.27Cardinals: −0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.2549ers: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.07Cardinals: +0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 54 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 80 at 73%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Cardinals 3.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
ARI's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, was the highest of the 21 team-games charted in week 16 — 25.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 60.0% in week 9.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 15.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 21.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 58 dropbacks
Cardinals20.0%
inside their normal wobble · +3.4 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteARI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 47.9 points above their season mean of 52.1% and 2.2 times their own 21.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
69Mike McGlincheyT · Every snap100%56 snaps
75Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap100%56 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Every snap100%56 snaps
3C.J. BeathardQB · Every snap100%56 snaps
60Daniel BrunskillG · Every snap100%56 snaps
11Brandon AiyukWR · Full-time93%52 snaps
13Richie JamesWR · Full-time91%51 snaps
30Jeffery WilsonRB · Heavy rotation70%39 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykFB · Heavy rotation54%30 snaps
67Justin SkuleT · Heavy rotation52%29 snaps
85George KittleTE · Heavy rotation50%28 snaps
68Colton McKivitzT · Rotational48%27 snaps
82Ross DwelleyTE · Rotational46%26 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational34%19 snaps
28Jerick McKinnonRB · Situational18%10 snaps
81Jordan ReedTE · Situational18%10 snaps
26Tevin ColemanRB · Situational13%7 snaps
88Daniel HelmTE · Situational13%7 snaps
86River CracraftWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Richard ShermanCBDion JordanDEJavon KinlawDTKevin GivensDTJimmie WardFSMatt ColeWRDeebo SamuelWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Beathard sacked−22% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(:14) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard sacked at SF 39 for -9 yards (43-H.Reddick). FUMBLES (43-H.Reddick), touched at 50, RECOVERED by ARI-48-I.Simmons at SF 47. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q2 0:14 · 49ers · 2nd & 10 at SF 48 · gained nothing · -1.44 EP · −22.2% win probability
167 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 87 yards from the ARI 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
36%
Yards
748
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.2868%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR25+0.3136%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.1943%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17-0.3371%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR17+0.1494%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.4425%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
49ers0Cardinals3
Field goal12 plays, from the Cardinals 17 to the 49ers 9
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 18 to the 49ers 35
Punt4 plays
49ers6Cardinals3
49ers7Cardinals3
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the Cardinals 21
The period ended8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the 49ers 48
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 44 to the 49ers 33
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 15 to the Cardinals 43
Punt9 plays, from the Cardinals 14 to the Cardinals 39
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 9 to the 49ers 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
49ers7Cardinals6
Field goal12 plays, from the Cardinals 41 to the 49ers 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost7 plays, from the 49ers 21 to the 49ers 48
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
No good9 plays, from the 49ers 14 to the Cardinals 23
Punt4 plays
49ers13Cardinals6
49ers14Cardinals6
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 29 to the Cardinals 9
Fumble lost2 plays
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
The period ended11 plays, from the Cardinals 13 to the 49ers 13
4th quarter53 plays
49ers14Cardinals12
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 8 to the 49ers 1
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Cardinals 27 to the Cardinals 35
49ers20Cardinals12
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Cardinals 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the 49ers 13
No good12 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the Cardinals 18
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Cardinals 27 to the Cardinals 44
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
