2020 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 26, 2020 · State Farm Stadium

San Francisco 49ersWinner

Arizona Cardinals

ARI -6 upsetU 49 ✓DomeCardinals closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

San Francisco 49ers 20–12. Biggest swing: Q4 4:42, SF +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 4:42SF — ARI ARI ball · 2nd & 11SF 72%

(4:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 23-A.Witherspoon at SF 0. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 4:42SF +20% win prob(4:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 23-A.Witherspoon at SF 0. Touchback.
Q4 · 5:51ARI +15% win prob(5:51) 1-K.Murray right end pushed ob at SF 13 for 30 yards (33-T.Moore).
Q3 · 1:08ARI +15% win prob(1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 19-K.Johnson to SF 15 for 45 yards (36-M.Harris; 33-T.Moore).
Q4 · 9:04SF +14% win prob(9:04) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 10-D.Hopkins (54-F.Warner).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Cardinals
Offensive plays	54	80
Total yards	399 (edge)	350
Yards per play	7.4 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	0.18 (edge)	-0.18
Success rate	52% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	46%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.27
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.25 (edge)	0.07
Third downs	2/9	4/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	13 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	20
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

31/50, 247 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-16.6 expected points added · -1.8% completion over expected

Passing · SF

C.J. BeathardQB

13/22, 182 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

2.3 expected points added · -9.3% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Jeffery WilsonRB

22 att, 183 yds, 0 TD

6.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

8 att, 75 yds, 0 TD

9.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

4/5 for 92 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Christian KirkWR

7/10 for 76 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · -2.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 17	12	74	4:50	Turnover on downs
2	SF	SF 18	7	11	2:42	Punt
3	ARI	ARI 27	4	0	0:32	Punt
4	SF	SF 26	8	79	4:12	Touchdown
5	ARI	ARI 25	12	41	5:38	Punt
6	SF	SF 15	7	45	3:14	Punt
7	ARI	ARI 14	9	25	3:35	Punt
8	SF	SF 9	4	0	2:07	Punt
9	ARI	ARI 41	10	39	2:35	Turnover on downs
10	SF	SF 21	5	27	0:27	Fumble
11	ARI	SF 47	2	5	0:08	End of half
12	SF	SF 14	9	63	3:53	Turnover on downs
13	ARI	ARI 31	4	-11	1:51	Punt
14	SF	SF 29	8	71	4:03	Touchdown
15	ARI	ARI 25	2	11	0:09	Fumble
16	SF	ARI 36	4	-3	1:01	Punt
17	ARI	ARI 13	15	75	6:55	Touchdown
18	SF	SF 20	5	9	1:55	Punt
19	ARI	ARI 27	4	13	1:13	Turnover on downs
20	SF	ARI 35	3	35	0:24	Touchdown
21	ARI	ARI 25	11	61	3:59	Interception
22	SF	SF 20	8	62	3:32	Turnover on downs
23	ARI	ARI 27	6	17	0:51	Turnover on downs
24	SF	ARI 43	1	0	0:14	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 79 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Beathard	13/22	182	3	0	3	2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jeffery Wilson	22	183	8.3	6.3
C.J. Beathard	3	18	6.0	-0.7
Brandon Aiyuk	1	16	16.0	1.0
Jerick McKinnon	1	4	4.0	-0.3
Kyle Juszczyk	1	3	3.0	0.6
Tevin Coleman	2	3	1.5	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	4	5	92	0	24%	6.8
Jerick McKinnon	3	4	28	0	19%	1.5
Jeffery Wilson	1	2	21	1	10%	1.9
Kendrick Bourne	1	1	16	0	5%	0.5
Brandon Aiyuk	1	2	15	0	10%	0.3
Kyle Juszczyk	2	3	10	2	14%	1.3
Tevin Coleman	1	1	0	0	5%	-0.7
Richie James	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.5
Jordan Reed	0	2	0	0	10%	-3.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Fred Warner	8	6	0.0	0	3
Tarvarius Moore	7	4	0.0	0	0
Dre Greenlaw	6	1	0.0	0	0
Ahkello Witherspoon	7	0	0.0	1	1
Jason Verrett	6	1	0.0	0	1
Marcell Harris	5	1	0.0	0	0
K'Waun Williams	4	1	1.0	0	1
Arik Armstead	2	2	0.0	0	0
Darrion Daniels	1	1	0.0	0	0
Kerry Hyder	1	1	1.0	0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	31/50	247	0	1	3	-16.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kyler Murray	8	75	9.4	0	9.8
Kenyan Drake	18	45	2.5	1	-0.3
D.J. Foster	1	0	0.0	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Christian Kirk	7	10	76	22%	-2.8
KeeSean Johnson	2	3	50	7%	1.8
DeAndre Hopkins	8	12	48	26%	-3.9
Larry Fitzgerald	6	8	28	17%	-2.0
Dan Arnold	3	5	25	11%	-4.9
Chase Edmonds	2	3	8	7%	-2.0
Darrell Daniels	1	2	7	4%	-0.3
Kenyan Drake	2	2	5	4%	-2.0
Seth DeValve	0	1	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Budda Baker	7	2	0.0	0
Chris Banjo	2	4	0.0	0
De'Vondre Campbell	2	3	0.0	0
Byron Murphy	2	3	0.0	0
Jordan Hicks	2	3	0.0	1
Devon Kennard	3	1	1.0	0
Tanner Vallejo	2	1	0.0	0
Haason Reddick	2	1	1.5	0
Isaiah Simmons	3	0	0.0	0
Patrick Peterson	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ARI -6
Closing total: 49
SF moneyline: +242
ARI moneyline: -280

Cardinals closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49; the game landed 32 — under by 17.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: SF 6 days · ARI 6 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Kliff Kingsbury

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.