2020 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 26, 2020 · Ford Field

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

Detroit Lions

TB -12 ✓U 55 ✓DomeBuccaneers closed -12 and covered, winning by 40.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 47–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:51, DET +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 11:51TB — DET TB ball · 2nd & 8TB 86%

(11:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 11:51DET +10% win prob(11:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 13:09DET +4% win prob(13:09) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-M.Evans to DET 35 for 33 yards (26-D.Harmon).
Q1 · 11:14DET +3% win prob(11:14) (Shotgun) 32-D.Swift up the middle to DET 47 for 7 yards (54-L.David; 90-J.Pierre-Paul).
Q1 · 9:09DET +3% win prob(9:09) 73-J.Haeg reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 14-C.Godwin to DET 25 for 47 yards (24-A.Oruwariye).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Lions
Offensive plays	69	50
Total yards	589 (edge)	186
Yards per play	8.5 (edge)	3.7
Expected points added / play	0.39 (edge)	-0.59
Success rate	54% (edge)	28%
Dropback rate	65%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.61 (edge)	-0.60
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03 (edge)	-0.57
Third downs	4/10 (edge)	1/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	13 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	27 (edge)	9
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs -0.59.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

22/27, 348 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

26.6 expected points added · +21.7% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Blaine GabbertQB

9/15, 143 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-0.1 expected points added · -10.5% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Ke'Shawn VaughnRB

15 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

D'Andre SwiftRB

10 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

-6.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

10/12 for 181 yds, 2 TD

29% of team targets · 11.8 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

5/9 for 84 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 18	8	77	3:17	Touchdown
2	DET	DET 25	6	24	1:58	Punt
3	TB	TB 20	5	80	2:06	Touchdown
4	DET	DET 25	7	14	2:51	Punt
5	TB	TB 16	9	35	4:42	Punt
6	DET	DET 10	4	4	0:51	Punt
7	TB	TB 49	7	51	2:24	Touchdown
8	DET	DET 25	7	12	2:49	Punt
9	TB	TB 9	8	91	4:10	Touchdown
10	DET	DET 25	5	3	1:32	Punt
11	TB	TB 34	10	76	2:06	Touchdown
12	DET	DET 20	6	30	1:14	End of half
13	DET	DET 25	2	0	0:05	Fumble
14	TB	DET 25	2	25	0:05	Touchdown
15	DET	DET 25	7	0	3:49	Punt
16	TB	TB 18	4	7	1:41	Defensive touchdown
17	TB	TB 37	6	73	2:13	Touchdown
18	DET	DET 7	8	39	3:20	Punt
19	TB	TB 8	8	46	3:50	Turnover on downs
20	DET	DET 36	6	4	2:27	Punt
21	TB	TB 11	8	20	4:50	Turnover on downs
22	DET	DET 32	7	56	3:00	Turnover on downs
23	TB	TB 32	4	-2	2:21	Punt
24	DET	DET 30	1	0	0:11	Interception
25	TB	TB 40	4	10	2:08	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 91 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	22/27	348	4	0	1	26.6
Blaine Gabbert	9/15	143	2	0	1	-0.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	15	62	4.1	0	-0.6
Leonard Fournette	9	34	3.8	1	-0.2
Blaine Gabbert	2	15	7.5	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	10	12	181	2	29%	11.8
Chris Godwin	5	9	84	1	22%	3.9
Rob Gronkowski	2	2	58	2	5%	6.2
Tyler Johnson	1	1	35	0	2%	3.3
Antonio Brown	4	6	35	1	15%	2.7
Leonard Fournette	3	3	32	0	7%	2.3
Cameron Brate	2	2	27	0	5%	2.5
Tanner Hudson	1	1	20	0	2%	1.4
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	1	2	7	0	5%	-0.9
Scott Miller	1	2	7	0	5%	-1.1
LeSean McCoy	1	1	5	0	2%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Devin White	10	0	1.0	0	0
Lavonte David	2	3	0.0	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	4	0	0.0	0	1
Herb Miller	4	0	0.0	1	1
Antoine Winfield	4	0	0.0	0	0
Shaquil Barrett	1	2	0.0	0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	2	0	0.0	0	0
Anthony Nelson	1	1	1.0	0	0
Jamel Dean	2	0	0.0	0	0
Jason Pierre-Paul	0	2	0.0	0	2

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	INT	Sacked	EPA
Chase Daniel	13/18	86	0	3	-12.5
David Blough	6/10	49	1	1	-9.7
Matthew Stafford	2/3	17	0	0	-1.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
D'Andre Swift	10	45	4.5	-6.8
David Blough	1	18	18.0	1.9
Adrian Peterson	4	10	2.5	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Danny Amendola	5	7	37	23%	-3.6
D'Andre Swift	4	5	25	17%	-0.2
T.J. Hockenson	4	6	23	20%	-2.6
Mohamed Sanu	2	4	22	13%	-1.5
Marvin Jones	3	3	19	10%	-1.0
Kerryon Johnson	2	2	17	7%	-0.6
Quintez Cephus	1	2	9	7%	-0.6
Jesse James	0	1	0	3%	-3.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast
Tracy Walker III	6	3
Jarrad Davis	3	5
Jahlani Tavai	3	2
Tramaine Brock	5	0
Duron Harmon	5	0
Amani Oruwariye	2	2
John Penisini	3	1
Christian Jones	2	2
Austin Bryant	2	1
Kevin Strong	2	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -12
Closing total: 55
TB moneyline: -591
DET moneyline: +455

Buccaneers closed -12 and covered, winning by 40.

Total closed 55; the game landed 54 — under by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: TB 6 days · DET 6 days
Coaches: Bruce Arians vs Darrell Bevell