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Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 43 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Buccaneers167 of 176 plays carry both curves
(11:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −9.8 for LionsExpected points −3.61 for LionsThe model had Lions 34 points higher than the market did.play 9
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:51DET +10% win prob(11:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:09DET +4% win prob(13:09) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-M.Evans to DET 35 for 33 yards (26-D.Harmon).
1st · 11:14DET +3% win prob(11:14) (Shotgun) 32-D.Swift up the middle to DET 47 for 7 yards (54-L.David; 90-J.Pierre-Paul).
1st · 9:09DET +3% win prob(9:09) 73-J.Haeg reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 14-C.Godwin to DET 25 for 47 yards (24-A.Oruwariye).
1st · 9:45DET +3% win prob(9:45) 73-J.Haeg reported in as eligible. 28-L.Fournette up the middle to TB 28 for 8 yards (21-T.Walker; 40-J.Davis).
1st · 14:09DET +2% win prob(14:09) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at TB 13 for -6 yards (51-J.Tavai). PENALTY on DET-98-E.Griffen, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at TB 19 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rob Gronkowski's 33-yard touchdown catch with 11:51 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:51Rob Gronkowski·33-yd TD catch33-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady · kick no good, hit right uprightLead never changed again+66–0
1st7:44Mike Evans·27-yd TD catch27-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+713–0
Buccaneers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.61 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.39Buccaneers: +0.39 expected points added per play
−0.59Lions: −0.59 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.61Buccaneers: +0.61 expected points added per play
−0.60Lions: −0.60 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Buccaneers: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.57Lions: −0.57 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 69 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Lions’s 50 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 7, Lions 0.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs -0.59.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 16Against their seasonTendencies
TB's sack or hit rate, 30.6%, is past their previous high of 28.6% in week 6 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
A 3.0-swing turn from week 15.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 29 pts
leaned — got home · +13.6 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+1.75× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Lions6.7%
inside their normal wobble · −3.1 vs their 9.7%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.6%, 13.6 points above their season mean of 17.0% and 1.7 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass+10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 11:51 · Buccaneers · 2nd & 8 at DET 33 · gained 33 · +3.61 EP · +9.8% win probability
165 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 91 yards from the TB 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
40%
Yards
774
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.7175%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.3366%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.7027%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.9271%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.5440%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Buccaneers0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Buccaneers6Lions0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 18 to the Lions 33
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 49
Buccaneers12Lions0
Buccaneers13Lions0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Lions 25
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 25 to midfield
Punt10 plays, from the Buccaneers 16 to the Lions 45
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Lions 12 to the Lions 14
Buccaneers19Lions0
Buccaneers20Lions0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 49 to the Lions 4
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 38
Buccaneers26Lions0
Buccaneers27Lions0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 9 to the Lions 7
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 28
Buccaneers33Lions0
Buccaneers34Lions0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Lions 12
The period ended9 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 39
3rd quarter45 plays
Fumble lost2 plays
Buccaneers40Lions0
Touchdown2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 37
Buccaneers40Lions6
Touchdown5 plays, from the Buccaneers 18 to the Buccaneers 25
Buccaneers40Lions7
Buccaneers46Lions7
Buccaneers47Lions7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Lions 22
Punt9 plays, from the Lions 7 to the Lions 41
The period ended11 plays, from the Buccaneers 8 to the Lions 31
4th quarter38 plays
Turnover on downs1 play
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 36 to the Buccaneers 30
No good11 plays, from the Buccaneers 11 to the Lions 24
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Lions 32 to the Buccaneers 32
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 32 to the Buccaneers 37
Intercepted1 play
The period ended5 plays, from the Buccaneers 40 to midfield
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
