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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:14 AM ET · 16 final
Game Center
Game Center
2020 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27, 2020 · Lambeau Field
FinalThe verdict · 2020 Week 16
It turned at Q3 12:10, 3rd and 1, on Ryan Tannehill — 13.0 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 40–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 12:10, Titans +13.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 12:10 · 3rd and 1
Ryan Tannehill
Titans
(12:10) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill right tackle for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Titans at 3 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 61% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.40 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.32 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.33 expected points per snap, against Titans at -0.11 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
(12:10) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill right tackle for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Davante Adams's 5-yard touchdown catch with 9:59 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Davante Adams5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron Rodgers · kick no good, wide leftLead never changed again+60–6
Equanimeous St. Brown21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron Rodgers · two-point no good+60–128 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Titanscategory by categoryPackers
Packers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 55 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Packers’s 61 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Titans 3, Packers 7.
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
TEN's pass rate over expected, −18.6 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 4.3 points clear of the next team along.
55 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Titans-18.6 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.9 vs their -9.7 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−1.65× that swing) · 55 snaps
Packers-0.4 ptsright on their number · −3.1 vs their 2.7 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 19% to 73%
Tendencies room →Titans44.2%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 45.9%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 43 early downs
Packers45.1%inside their normal wobble · −7.3 vs their 52.4%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -39% to 153%
Fourth Down room →Titans—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 43.8%.
Packers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 56.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 31%
Tendencies room →Titans7.1%right on their number · −3.5 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Packers16.7%inside their normal wobble · +3.8 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.81× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
TEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -18.6 pts, 8.9 points below their season mean of -9.7 pts and 1.7 times their own 5.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · GB
21/25, 231 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
9.6 expected points added · +19.5% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
11/24, 121 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-8.3 expected points added · -14.8% completion over expected
Receiving · GB
11/12 for 142 yds, 3 TD
50% of team targets · 11.0 expected points added
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:10) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill right tackle for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 12:10 · Titans · 3rd & 1 at GB 45 · gained 45 · +4.50 EP · +12.5% win probability
143 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 153 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 91 yards from the GB 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
153 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
153 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Titans0
Packers6Titans0Packers12Titans0Packers18Titans0Packers19Titans6Packers19Titans7Packers19Titans13Packers19Titans14Packers19Titans14Packers25Titans14Packers26Titans14Packers32Titans14Packers33Titans14Packers39Titans14Packers40Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Titans at Packers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 11/24 | 121 | 1 | 2 | 2 | −8.3 |
| Logan Woodside | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 23 | 98 | 4.3 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 55 | 18.3 | 1 | +4.7 |
| Darrynton Evans |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 8 | 43 | 0 | 32% | −1.8 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 7 | 30 | 1 | 28% | −4.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harold Landry | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Long Jr. | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adoree' Jackson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/25 | 231 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +9.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Dillon |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2020_16_TEN_GB
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -3 and covered, winning by 26.
Total closed 52.5; the game landed 54 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.4 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 4% | +1.7 |
| Cameron Batson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4% | +1.9 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 8% | +0.1 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Darrynton Evans | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −1.8 |
| Kalif Raymond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Corey Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −1.3 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Rashaan Evans | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Vaccaro | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Butler | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jack Crawford | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaQuan Jones | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 |
| 124 |
| 5.9 |
| 2 |
| +9.8 |
| Aaron Jones | 10 | 94 | 9.4 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Tim Boyle | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 11 | 12 | 142 | 3 | 50% | +11.0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 4% | +2.7 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 8% | +0.1 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 13% | −1.2 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 8% | +1.4 |
| Dominique Dafney | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4% | +0.8 |
| A.J. Dillon | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | +0.1 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krys Barnes | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chandon Sullivan | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Savage | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Kenny Clark | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Preston Smith | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin King | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Amos | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Vernon Scott | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Za'Darius Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
