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2020 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27, 2020 · Lambeau Field
14
40
Green Bay Packers 40–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 12:10, GB +13% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(12:10) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill right tackle for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Titans | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 55 | 61 |
| Total yards | 260 | 451 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.7 | 7.4 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.11 | 0.33 (edge) |
| Success rate | 40% | 61% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 55% | 46% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.32 | 0.40 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.15 | 0.28 (edge) |
| Third downs | 5/11 | 4/7 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 3 | 10 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 15 | 27 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 2 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 (edge) |
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Who moved the needle
Passing · GB
21/25, 231 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
9.6 expected points added · +19.5% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
11/24, 121 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-8.3 expected points added · -14.8% completion over expected
Receiving · GB
11/12 for 142 yds, 3 TD
50% of team targets · 11.0 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | GB 40 | 10 | 60 | 5:05 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | TEN | TEN 35 | 10 | 33 | 4:05 | Punt | |
| 3 | GB | GB 20 | 11 | 75 | 5:56 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | TEN | TEN 25 | 4 | 6 | 1:24 | Interception | |
| 5 | GB | TEN 34 | 7 | 34 | 2:44 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | TEN | TEN 31 | 5 | -17 | 1:45 | Punt | |
| 7 | GB | GB 45 | 8 | 21 | 4:45 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | TEN | TEN 29 | 11 | 71 | 3:39 | Touchdown | |
| 9 | GB | GB 21 | 4 | 20 | 0:37 | End of half | |
| 10 | TEN | TEN 34 | 7 | 66 | 2:59 | Touchdown | |
| 11 | GB | GB 34 | 5 | 66 | 1:34 | Touchdown | |
| 12 | TEN | TEN 30 | 5 | 3 | 1:04 | Punt | |
| 13 | GB | GB 26 | 10 | 69 | 5:48 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | TEN | TEN 24 | 11 | 41 | 3:47 | Interception | |
| 15 | GB | GB 43 | 4 | 15 | 2:24 | Interception | |
| 16 | TEN | TEN 37 | 10 | 54 | 3:56 | Turnover on downs | |
| 17 | GB | GB 9 | 10 | 91 | 6:03 | Touchdown | |
| 18 | TEN | TEN 23 | 5 | 3 | 0:44 | Punt | |
| 19 | GB | GB 14 | 3 | 0 | 1:41 | End of game |
0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 91 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 11/24 | 121 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -8.3 |
| Logan Woodside | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 23 | 98 | 4.3 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 55 | 18.3 | 1 | 4.7 |
| Darrynton Evans | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 8 | 43 | 0 | 32% | -1.8 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 7 | 30 | 1 | 28% | -4.4 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 4% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harold Landry | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Long Jr. | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adoree' Jackson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/25 | 231 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Dillon | 21 | 124 | 5.9 | 2 |
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -3 and covered, winning by 26.
Total closed 52.5; the game landed 54 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 1.7 |
| Cameron Batson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4% | 1.9 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 8% | 0.1 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | -0.8 |
| Darrynton Evans | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | -1.8 |
| Kalif Raymond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -0.5 |
| Corey Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | -1.3 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Rashaan Evans | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Vaccaro | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Butler | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jack Crawford | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaQuan Jones | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9.8 |
| Aaron Jones | 10 | 94 | 9.4 | 0 | 0.6 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Tim Boyle | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 11 | 12 | 142 | 3 | 50% | 11.0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 4% | 2.7 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 8% | 0.1 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 13% | -1.2 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 8% | 1.4 |
| Dominique Dafney | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4% | 0.8 |
| A.J. Dillon | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | 0.1 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8% | -0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krys Barnes | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chandon Sullivan | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Savage | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Kenny Clark | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Preston Smith | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin King | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Amos | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Vernon Scott | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Za'Darius Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
