2020 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27, 2020 · Lambeau Field

Tennessee Titans

Green Bay PackersWinner

GB -3 ✓O 52.5 ✓28°F · 15 mphPackers closed -3 and covered, winning by 26.

Green Bay Packers 40–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 12:10, GB +13% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 12:10TEN — GB TEN ball · 3rd & 1GB 87%

(12:10) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill right tackle for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 12:10GB +13% win prob(12:10) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill right tackle for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 11:57GB +10% win prob(11:57) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left end to TEN 7 for 59 yards (25-A.Jackson).
Q1 · 5:56TEN +8% win prob(5:56) 6-B.Kern punts 32 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Overton, Touchback.
Q2 · 15:00GB +6% win prob(15:00) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 19-E.St. Brown for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Packers
Offensive plays	55	61
Total yards	260	451 (edge)
Yards per play	4.7	7.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.11	0.33 (edge)
Success rate	40%	61% (edge)
Dropback rate	55%	46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.32	0.40 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15	0.28 (edge)
Third downs	5/11	4/7 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	27 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs -0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

21/25, 231 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

9.6 expected points added · +19.5% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

11/24, 121 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-8.3 expected points added · -14.8% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

A.J. DillonRB

21 att, 124 yds, 2 TD

9.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

23 att, 98 yds, 0 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

11/12 for 142 yds, 3 TD

50% of team targets · 11.0 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

A.J. BrownWR

4/8 for 43 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · -1.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 40	10	60	5:05	Touchdown
2	TEN	TEN 35	10	33	4:05	Punt
3	GB	GB 20	11	75	5:56	Touchdown
4	TEN	TEN 25	4	6	1:24	Interception
5	GB	TEN 34	7	34	2:44	Touchdown
6	TEN	TEN 31	5	-17	1:45	Punt
7	GB	GB 45	8	21	4:45	Turnover on downs
8	TEN	TEN 29	11	71	3:39	Touchdown
9	GB	GB 21	4	20	0:37	End of half
10	TEN	TEN 34	7	66	2:59	Touchdown
11	GB	GB 34	5	66	1:34	Touchdown
12	TEN	TEN 30	5	3	1:04	Punt
13	GB	GB 26	10	69	5:48	Touchdown
14	TEN	TEN 24	11	41	3:47	Interception
15	GB	GB 43	4	15	2:24	Interception
16	TEN	TEN 37	10	54	3:56	Turnover on downs
17	GB	GB 9	10	91	6:03	Touchdown
18	TEN	TEN 23	5	3	0:44	Punt
19	GB	GB 14	3	0	1:41	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 91 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	11/24	121	1	2	2	-8.3
Logan Woodside	0/2	0	0	0	0	-1.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	23	98	4.3	0	-0.5
Ryan Tannehill	3	55	18.3	1	4.7
Darrynton Evans	1	3	3.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Brown	4	8	43	0	32%	-1.8
Jonnu Smith	3	7	30	1	28%	-4.4
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	1	1	19	0	4%	1.7
Cameron Batson	1	1	12	0	4%	1.9
Anthony Firkser	1	2	11	0	8%	0.1
Jeremy McNichols	1	1	6	0	4%	-0.8
Darrynton Evans	0	2	0	0	8%	-1.8
Kalif Raymond	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
Corey Davis	0	2	0	0	8%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Harold Landry	3	5	0	0
David Long Jr.	7	1	0	0
Kevin Byard	4	3	0	0
Adoree' Jackson	4	2	0	0
Rashaan Evans	3	2	0	0
Kenny Vaccaro	3	2	0	0
Malcolm Butler	4	0	1	1
Jack Crawford	1	2	0	0
Jeffery Simmons	1	1	0	0
DaQuan Jones	1	1	0	0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	21/25	231	4	1	1	9.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
A.J. Dillon	21	124	5.9	2	9.8
Aaron Jones	10	94	9.4	0	0.6
Aaron Rodgers	3	19	6.3	0	0.3
Tim Boyle	3	-3	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	11	12	142	3	50%	11.0
Equanimeous St. Brown	1	1	21	1	4%	2.7
Robert Tonyan	1	2	17	0	8%	0.1
Aaron Jones	2	3	14	0	13%	-1.2
Allen Lazard	2	2	14	0	8%	1.4
Dominique Dafney	1	1	13	0	4%	0.8
A.J. Dillon	1	1	5	0	4%	0.1
Tavon Austin	2	2	5	0	8%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Krys Barnes	5	2	0.0	0	0
Rashan Gary	3	2	0.0	0	0
Chandon Sullivan	3	1	0.0	0	0
Darnell Savage	1	3	0.0	1	3
Kenny Clark	3	0	0.0	0	0
Preston Smith	2	1	0.0	0	1
Kevin King	1	2	0.0	0	0
Adrian Amos	2	1	0.0	0	1
Vernon Scott	2	1	0.0	0	0
Za'Darius Smith	1	1	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -3
Closing total: 52.5
TEN moneyline: +159
GB moneyline: -177

Packers closed -3 and covered, winning by 26.

Total closed 52.5; the game landed 54 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 28°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: TEN 7 days · GB 8 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Matt LaFleur

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.