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Arizona Cardinals 7 at Los Angeles Rams 18. Final.
Rams -1 ✓U 42 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 17
Los Angeles Rams 18, Cardinals 7 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:37, 2nd and 7, on Troy Hill — 35.9 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:37 · 2nd and 7
Troy Hill
Rams
(:37) (Shotgun) 15-C.Streveler pass deep right intended for 16-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Hill at LA 16. 22-T.Hill for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Rams closed -1 and covered, winning by 11.
Los Angeles Rams 18–7. Biggest swing: Q2 0:37, Rams +35.9% win probability on one snap.
35.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jordan HicksCardinalsQ1 10:54(10:54) (Shotgun) 9-J.Wolford pass short left intended for 11-J.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hicks at LA 20. 58-J.Hicks to LA 14 for 6 yards (89-T.Higbee).
14.2pts
Cam AkersCardinalsQ2 6:17(6:17) 23-C.Akers left tackle to ARI 1 for 1 yard (59-D.Campbell, 48-I.Simmons). FUMBLES (48-I.Simmons), RECOVERED by ARI-33-B.Murphy at ARI 1. 33-B.Murphy to ARI 1 for no gain (17-R.Woods).
13.6pts
What separated them
Red zone
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Rams at 0 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Rams won this one — 6 of 15 on third down, against Cardinals at 2 of 9 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 5 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — -0.01 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.34 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Cardinals157 of 169 plays carry both curves
(:37) (Shotgun) 15-C.Streveler pass deep right intended for 16-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Hill at LA 16. 22-T.Hill for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +35.9 for RamsExpected points +10.05 for RamsModel and market agree here.play 86
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:37ARI +36% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 15-C.Streveler pass deep right intended for 16-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Hill at LA 16. 22-T.Hill for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:54ARI +14% win prob(10:54) (Shotgun) 9-J.Wolford pass short left intended for 11-J.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hicks at LA 20. 58-J.Hicks to LA 14 for 6 yards (89-T.Higbee).
2nd · 6:17ARI +14% win prob(6:17) 23-C.Akers left tackle to ARI 1 for 1 yard (59-D.Campbell, 48-I.Simmons). FUMBLES (48-I.Simmons), RECOVERED by ARI-33-B.Murphy at ARI 1. 33-B.Murphy to ARI 1 for no gain (17-R.Woods).
1st · 2:55LA +10% win prob(2:55) (Shotgun) 9-J.Wolford pass deep right to 17-R.Woods pushed ob at ARI 4 for 27 yards (58-J.Hicks).
3rd · 11:14LA +8% win prob(11:14) (Shotgun) 9-J.Wolford pass deep right to 89-T.Higbee to ARI 24 for 26 yards (32-B.Baker).
2nd · 10:25LA +7% win prob(10:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Wolford left end to ARI 38 for 14 yards (51-T.Vallejo).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Troy Hill's 84-yard touchdown with 0:37 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:15Jonathan Ward·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Chris Strevelerfrom Chris Streveler+77–0
2nd14:21Matt Gay·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+37–3
2nd5:31Rams·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+27–5
3rd6:20Matt Gay·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+37–15
4th14:28Matt Gay·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+37–18
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categoryRams
Cardinals3–6Rams
215Total yards333
4.5Yards per play4.8
38%Success rate30%
22%Third-down rate40%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays8
14First downs19
4Sacks taken2
1Turnovers2
The read
Rams ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cardinals, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.32Cardinals: −0.32 expected points added per play
−0.14Rams: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.34Cardinals: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.01Rams: −0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.28Cardinals: −0.28 expected points added per play
−0.33Rams: −0.33 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 48 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Rams’s 70 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 2, Rams 5.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.32.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −2.3 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Rams16.1%
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteARI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -9.5 pts, 8.0 points below their season mean of -1.5 pts and 1.3 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Streveler pass−38% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:37) (Shotgun) 15-C.Streveler pass deep right intended for 16-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Hill at LA 16. 22-T.Hill for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:37 · Cardinals · 2nd & 7 at LA 32 · gained nothing · -10.05 EP · −38.3% win probability
155 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 81 yards from the LA 18 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.22
Success rate
30%
Yards
547
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.5168%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR34-0.3150%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.3175%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.0154%
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.160%
Rams0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Rams 49
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Rams 5 to the Rams 15
Cardinals6Rams0
Cardinals7Rams0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Rams 14 to the Rams 11
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 19 to the Rams 22
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 29 to the Cardinals 35
The period ended19 plays, from the Rams 21 to the Cardinals 1
2nd quarter47 plays
Cardinals7Rams3
Field goal3 plays, from the Cardinals 11 to the Cardinals 10
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 31
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, five linebackers and two backsIn the boxNine defenders
Fumble lost13 plays, from the Rams 18 to the Cardinals 2
Cardinals7Rams5
Drive ended2 plays, from the Cardinals 1 to the Cardinals 2
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 41 to the Rams 49
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 27
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Rams 28
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Cardinals7Rams11
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Rams 32
Cardinals7Rams12
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Cardinals7Rams15
Field goal17 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cardinals 13
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Rams 48
The period ended8 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Cardinals 29
4th quarter46 plays
Cardinals7Rams18
Field goal5 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Cardinals 9
No good13 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Rams 7
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 24
Punt10 plays, from the Cardinals 31 to the Rams 40
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 34
The period ended4 plays, from the Cardinals 13 to the Cardinals 29
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -1
Closing total
42
Cardinals moneyline
+113
Rams moneyline
-125
Rams closed -1 and covered, winning by 11.
Total closed 42; the game landed 25 — under by 17.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Cardinals 8 days · Rams 7 days
Coaches
Kliff Kingsbury vs Sean McVay
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 0:47LA +7% win prob(:47) (Shotgun) 15-C.Streveler pass incomplete deep left to 10-D.Hopkins. PENALTY on LA-20-J.Ramsey, Defensive Pass Interference, 18 yards, enforced at ARI 47 - No Play.
1st · 10:15LA +7% win prob(10:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-C.Streveler pass short middle to 38-J.Ward for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
