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DYNATYZE
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DYNATYZE
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Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Falcons170 of 179 plays carry both curves
(5:36) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin to ATL 7 for 47 yards (37-R.Allen).
Swing +12.0 for BuccaneersExpected points +4.51 for BuccaneersThe model had Falcons 6 points higher than the market did.play 153
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:36TB +12% win prob(5:36) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin to ATL 7 for 47 yards (37-R.Allen).
1st · 11:12TB +8% win prob(11:12) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 14-C.Godwin for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:23TB +7% win prob(8:23) 73-M.Gono reported in as eligible. 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 81-H.Hurst for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:56TB +7% win prob(8:56) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 83-R.Gage for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:35TB +6% win prob(10:35) (No Huddle) 23-B.Hill right end pushed ob at TB 4 for 62 yards (31-A.Winfield).
4th · 3:58TB +6% win prob(3:58) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 14-C.Godwin for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 2:25TB +5% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chris Godwin's 29-yard touchdown catch with 11:12 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 12 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:12Chris Godwin·29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom BradyLead never changed again+70–7
1st3:36Younghoe Koo·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.Harris+33–7
1st0:11Ryan Succop·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+33–10
2nd12:38Antonio Brown·25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+73–17
2nd8:49Ryan Succop·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+33–20
4th8:23Hayden Hurst·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+727–30
4th3:58Chris Godwin·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+727–37
4th3:02Antonio Brown·30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+727–44
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Falcons1–7Buccaneers
385Total yards486
5.4Yards per play8.1
44%Success rate60%
50%Third-down rate60%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays8
23First downs25
1Sacks taken1
2Turnovers1
The read
Buccaneers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Falcons: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.41Buccaneers: +0.41 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.19Falcons: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.52Buccaneers: +0.52 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.15Falcons: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.16Buccaneers: +0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 71 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 60 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 5, Buccaneers 9.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
TB's pass rate over expected, +17.6 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 3.6 points clear of the next team along.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
TB's sack or hit rate turned over: 30.6% in week 16 against 13.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points. · −0.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 29 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.5 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−1.48× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Buccaneers13.3%
right on their number · −3.7 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 4.8%, 8.5 points below their season mean of 13.3% and 1.5 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass+14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:36) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin to ATL 7 for 47 yards (37-R.Allen).
Q4 5:36 · Buccaneers · 3rd & 12 at TB 46 · gained 47 · +4.51 EP · +14.0% win probability
168 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 79 yards from the ATL 18 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.18
Success rate
50%
Yards
870
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.3274%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.0967%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.7153%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.2171%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.7633%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Falcons0Buccaneers6
Falcons0Buccaneers7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 32 to the Falcons 29
Falcons3Buccaneers7
Field goal14 plays, from the Falcons 27 to the Buccaneers 3
Falcons3Buccaneers10
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Falcons 11
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter54 plays
Punt3 plays
Falcons3Buccaneers16
Falcons3Buccaneers17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 43 to the Falcons 25
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 42
Falcons3Buccaneers20
Field goal6 plays, from the Falcons 39 to the Falcons 20
Falcons9Buccaneers20
Falcons10Buccaneers20
Touchdown17 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 1
Falcons10Buccaneers23
Field goal14 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Falcons 7
3rd quarter38 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
Falcons16Buccaneers23
Falcons17Buccaneers23
Touchdown13 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 12
Intercepted5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Falcons 29
Falcons20Buccaneers23
Field goal17 plays, from the Falcons 18 to the Buccaneers 3
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter50 plays
Falcons20Buccaneers29
Falcons20Buccaneers30
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Falcons 3
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Falcons26Buccaneers30
Falcons27Buccaneers30
Touchdown8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Falcons27Buccaneers36
Falcons27Buccaneers37
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Falcons 4
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Falcons 31 to the Falcons 42
Falcons27Buccaneers43
Falcons27Buccaneers44
Touchdown5 plays, from the Falcons 38 to the Falcons 30
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 29
The period ended8 plays, from the Falcons 29 to the Falcons 18
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Falconscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Falcons0
Buccaneers6
