2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium

Atlanta Falcons

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

TB -7.5 ✓O 51 ✓Buccaneers closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 44–27 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q4 5:36, TB +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 5:36ATL — TB TB ball · 3rd & 12TB 81%

(5:36) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin to ATL 7 for 47 yards (37-R.Allen).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 5:36TB +12% win prob(5:36) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin to ATL 7 for 47 yards (37-R.Allen).
Q1 · 11:12TB +8% win prob(11:12) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 14-C.Godwin for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 8:23TB +7% win prob(8:23) 73-M.Gono reported in as eligible. 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 81-H.Hurst for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 8:56TB +7% win prob(8:56) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 83-R.Gage for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	71	60
Total yards	385	486 (edge)
Yards per play	5.4	8.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.07	0.41 (edge)
Success rate	44%	60% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.19	0.52 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15	0.16 (edge)
Third downs	7/14	6/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	23	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs 0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

26/41, 399 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

21.9 expected points added · +8.4% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

29/44, 265 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

12.5 expected points added · +3.6% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Brian HillRB

9 att, 94 yds, 0 TD

4.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Ronald JonesRB

12 att, 78 yds, 1 TD

3.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Antonio BrownWR

11/15 for 138 yds, 2 TD

39% of team targets · 11.2 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

5/7 for 133 yds, 2 TD

18% of team targets · 12.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 32	9	68	3:54	Touchdown
2	ATL	ATL 27	14	69	7:33	Turnover on downs
3	TB	TB 27	10	62	3:26	Turnover on downs
4	ATL	ATL 25	5	4	0:23	Punt
5	TB	TB 43	7	57	2:14	Touchdown
6	ATL	ATL 25	5	17	1:19	Defensive touchdown
7	TB	ATL 39	6	19	2:27	Turnover on downs
8	ATL	ATL 25	16	55	6:48	Touchdown
9	TB	TB 25	10	45	1:56	Turnover on downs
10	ATL	ATL 25	13	75	6:11	Touchdown
11	TB	TB 25	5	46	1:36	Interception
12	ATL	ATL 18	15	76	6:43	Turnover on downs
13	TB	TB 25	11	65	4:17	Touchdown
14	ATL	ATL 25	8	75	2:54	Touchdown
15	TB	TB 25	10	75	4:25	Touchdown
16	ATL	ATL 31	4	10	0:43	Fumble
17	TB	ATL 38	4	38	0:19	Touchdown
18	ATL	ATL 25	5	4	0:38	Turnover on downs
19	TB	ATL 29	6	11	2:14	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 76 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	29/44	265	2	0	1	12.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Brian Hill	9	94	10.4	0	4.0
Todd Gurley	9	18	2.0	0	-1.1
Russell Gage	1	11	11.0	0	0.7
Ito Smith	3	9	3.0	0	-0.6
Matt Ryan	3	1	0.3	1	-5.4
Calvin Ridley	1	-6	-6.0	0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Russell Gage	9	10	91	1	24%	11.3
Calvin Ridley	8	12	52	0	29%	-3.8
Brian Hill	3	3	42	0	7%	2.7
Hayden Hurst	4	6	28	1	15%	5.3
Todd Gurley	1	2	17	0	5%	-0.5
Laquon Treadwell	2	3	15	0	7%	-0.8
Luke Stocker	1	1	13	0	2%	0.7
Ito Smith	1	4	7	0	10%	-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	4	3	0.0	0	0
Keanu Neal	3	3	0.0	0	0
Ricardo Allen	4	1	0.0	1	1
Kendall Sheffield	4	1	0.0	0	0
Deion Jones	3	1	0.0	0	0
Sharrod Neasman	2	2	0.0	0	0
Tyeler Davison	1	2	0.0	0	0
Steven Means	1	2	0.0	0	0
Brian Hill	2	0	0.0	0	0
Dante Fowler	2	0	1.0	0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	26/41	399	4	1	1	21.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ronald Jones	12	78	6.5	1	3.7
Leonard Fournette	5	13	2.6	0	-1.3
Tom Brady	5	3	0.6	0	-3.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Antonio Brown	11	15	138	2	39%	11.2
Chris Godwin	5	7	133	2	18%	12.8
Mike Evans	3	4	46	0	11%	3.0
Rob Gronkowski	2	4	29	0	11%	0.7
Tyler Johnson	1	1	16	0	3%	1.5
Leonard Fournette	2	2	14	0	5%	-0.7
Scott Miller	1	3	12	0	8%	-2.6
Cameron Brate	1	2	11	0	5%	0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Lavonte David	5	3	0.0	0
Kevin Minter	5	3	0.0	1
Antoine Winfield	5	2	0.0	1
Sean Murphy-Bunting	5	1	0.0	1
Jamel Dean	6	0	0.0	0
Jordan Whitehead	5	0	0.0	0
William Gholston	1	3	0.0	0
Ndamukong Suh	3	0	1.0	0
Jason Pierre-Paul	3	0	0.0	0
Anthony Nelson	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -7.5
Closing total: 51
ATL moneyline: +276
TB moneyline: -323

Buccaneers closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 51; the game landed 71 — over by 20.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 65°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: ATL 7 days · TB 8 days
Coaches: Raheem Morris vs Bruce Arians

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.