For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending.mdto eligible URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown.
2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium
27
44
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 44–27 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q4 5:36, TB +12% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(5:36) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin to ATL 7 for 47 yards (37-R.Allen).
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Falcons | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 71 | 60 |
| Total yards | 385 | 486 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.4 | 8.1 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.07 | 0.41 (edge) |
| Success rate | 44% | 60% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 63% | 70% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.19 | 0.52 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.15 | 0.16 (edge) |
| Third downs | 7/14 | 6/10 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 3 | 8 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 23 | 25 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 1 | 1 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 (edge) |
Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
26/41, 399 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
21.9 expected points added · +8.4% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
29/44, 265 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
12.5 expected points added · +3.6% completion over expected
Receiving · TB
11/15 for 138 yds, 2 TD
39% of team targets · 11.2 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | TB 32 | 9 | 68 | 3:54 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | ATL | ATL 27 | 14 | 69 | 7:33 | Turnover on downs | |
| 3 | TB | TB 27 | 10 | 62 | 3:26 | Turnover on downs | |
| 4 | ATL | ATL 25 | 5 | 4 | 0:23 | Punt | |
| 5 | TB | TB 43 | 7 | 57 | 2:14 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | ATL | ATL 25 | 5 | 17 | 1:19 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 7 | TB | ATL 39 | 6 | 19 | 2:27 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | ATL | ATL 25 | 16 | 55 | 6:48 | Touchdown | |
| 9 | TB | TB 25 | 10 | 45 | 1:56 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | ATL | ATL 25 | 13 | 75 | 6:11 | Touchdown | |
| 11 | TB | TB 25 | 5 | 46 | 1:36 | Interception | |
| 12 | ATL | ATL 18 | 15 | 76 | 6:43 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | TB | TB 25 | 11 | 65 | 4:17 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | ATL | ATL 25 | 8 | 75 | 2:54 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | TB | TB 25 | 10 | 75 | 4:25 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | ATL | ATL 31 | 4 | 10 | 0:43 | Fumble | |
| 17 | TB | ATL 38 | 4 | 38 | 0:19 | Touchdown | |
| 18 | ATL | ATL 25 | 5 | 4 | 0:38 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | TB | ATL 29 | 6 | 11 | 2:14 | End of game |
0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 76 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a turnover on downs.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 29/44 | 265 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hill | 9 | 94 | 10.4 | 0 | 4.0 |
| Todd Gurley | 9 | 18 | 2.0 | 0 | -1.1 |
| Russell Gage | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Ito Smith | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 | -5.4 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 | -1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Gage | 9 | 10 | 91 | 1 | 24% | 11.3 |
| Calvin Ridley | 8 | 12 | 52 | 0 | 29% | -3.8 |
| Brian Hill | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 | 7% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keanu Neal | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ricardo Allen | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kendall Sheffield |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 26/41 | 399 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 21.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones | 12 | 78 | 6.5 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 51; the game landed 71 — over by 20.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2.7 |
| Hayden Hurst | 4 | 6 | 28 | 1 | 15% | 5.3 |
| Todd Gurley | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 5% | -0.5 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 7% | -0.8 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 2% | 0.7 |
| Ito Smith | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 10% | -2.5 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Deion Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sharrod Neasman | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyeler Davison | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Means | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Fowler | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3.7 |
| Leonard Fournette | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 | -3.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 11 | 15 | 138 | 2 | 39% | 11.2 |
| Chris Godwin | 5 | 7 | 133 | 2 | 18% | 12.8 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 | 11% | 3.0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 11% | 0.7 |
| Tyler Johnson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3% | 1.5 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 5% | -0.7 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 8% | -2.6 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5% | 0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Minter | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Antoine Winfield | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sean Murphy-Bunting | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamel Dean | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| William Gholston | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ndamukong Suh | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Pierre-Paul | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nelson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
