2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · Paul Brown Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

Cincinnati Bengals

BAL -13.5 ✓U 46 ✓Ravens closed -13.5 and covered, winning by 35.

Baltimore Ravens 38–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 3:54, CIN +5% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 3:54BAL — CIN BAL ball · 1st & 10BAL 90%

(3:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 80-M.Boykin for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 3:54CIN +5% win prob(3:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 80-M.Boykin for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 8:11BAL +5% win prob(8:11) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-J.Townsend.
Q2 · 14:11BAL +4% win prob(14:11) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 13-D.Duvernay INTERCEPTED by 59-A.Davis-Gaither (70-M.Hunt) [94-S.Hubbard] at BAL 47. 59-A.Davis-Gaither to BAL 47 for no gain (89-M.Andrews).
Q1 · 12:31CIN +4% win prob(12:31) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles left end to CIN 49 for 13 yards (56-J.Bynes).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Bengals
Offensive plays	73	40
Total yards	525 (edge)	195
Yards per play	7.2 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	0.35 (edge)	-0.58
Success rate	49% (edge)	30%
Dropback rate	33%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.43 (edge)	-1.16
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.31 (edge)	0.05
Third downs	11/17 (edge)	1/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	12 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	8
Sacks taken	0	0
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs -0.58.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

10/18, 113 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

6.9 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Brandon AllenQB

6/21, 48 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-24.3 expected points added · -35.3% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

J.K. DobbinsRB

13 att, 160 yds, 2 TD

10.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

11 att, 97 yds, 0 TD

7.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Marquise BrownWR

5/8 for 41 yds, 2 TD

42% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Mark AndrewsTE

4/7 for 27 yds, 0 TD

37% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 25	13	69	6:52	Turnover on downs
2	CIN	CIN 18	5	2	1:28	Punt
3	BAL	BAL 31	7	69	2:52	Touchdown
4	CIN	CIN 20	5	2	1:40	Punt
5	BAL	BAL 22	6	19	3:05	Interception
6	CIN	BAL 47	4	3	0:58	Punt
7	BAL	BAL 7	18	98	8:39	Touchdown
8	CIN	CIN 25	9	55	3:54	Turnover on downs
9	BAL	BAL 25	2	3	0:32	End of half
10	CIN	CIN 25	7	20	2:25	Punt
11	BAL	BAL 30	6	75	2:40	Touchdown
12	CIN	CIN 25	5	-2	1:01	Punt
13	BAL	50	11	50	5:10	Touchdown
14	CIN	CIN 25	3	55	1:06	Interception
15	BAL	BAL 20	3	80	0:53	Touchdown
16	CIN	CIN 25	5	3	1:53	Punt
17	BAL	BAL 20	9	56	5:36	Turnover on downs
18	CIN	CIN 24	4	4	0:56	Punt
19	BAL	BAL 28	4	3	2:25	Punt
20	CIN	CIN 42	6	32	3:05	Interception
21	BAL	BAL 4	4	3	1:47	Punt
22	CIN	CIN 46	2	21	1:03	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 98 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	10/18	113	3	1	0	6.9
Tyler Huntley	1/1	8	0	0	0	0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
J.K. Dobbins	13	160	12.3	2	10.0
Lamar Jackson	11	97	8.8	0	7.0
Gus Edwards	12	60	5.0	0	4.9
Mark Ingram	9	39	4.3	0	-1.0
Devin Duvernay	1	22	22.0	0	2.0
Justice Hill	2	21	10.5	0	1.7
Tyler Huntley	6	5	0.8	0	-6.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Miles Boykin	1	2	43	1	11%	3.4
Marquise Brown	5	8	41	2	42%	7.3
Mark Andrews	4	7	27	0	37%	-0.1
Gus Edwards	1	1	10	0	5%	0.6
Devin Duvernay	0	1	0	0	5%	-3.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Matt Judon	3	3	0	0
Chuck Clark	3	1	1	2
Tyus Bowser	3	0	0	0
L.J. Fort	2	1	0	0
Patrick Queen	1	2	0	0
Anthony Averett	2	0	0	2
Derek Wolfe	0	2	0	1
Malik Harrison	1	1	0	0
Brandon Williams	1	1	0	0
Mark Andrews	1	0	0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brandon Allen	6/21	48	0	2	0	-24.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Trayveon Williams	4	74	18.5	0.9
Samaje Perine	9	51	5.7	0.6
Tyler Boyd	1	11	11.0	0.8
Giovani Bernard	3	7	2.3	-1.1
Brandon Allen	1	2	2.0	0.3
Alex Erickson	1	2	2.0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Cethan Carter	1	2	21	10%	0.4
Drew Sample	2	3	15	15%	-0.1
Alex Erickson	1	3	8	15%	-1.1
Trayveon Williams	1	1	3	5%	-1.3
Tyler Boyd	1	3	1	15%	-3.1
Giovani Bernard	0	1	0	5%	-1.7
Tee Higgins	0	1	0	5%	-0.8
A.J. Green	0	6	0	30%	-14.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Akeem Davis-Gaither	6	4	1	1
Josh Bynes	7	3	0	0
Jessie Bates	5	3	0	0
Germaine Pratt	6	2	0	0
Christian Covington	1	5	0	0
Sam Hubbard	3	2	0	0
Xavier Williams	1	4	0	0
LeShaun Sims	3	1	0	1
Vonn Bell	1	2	0	0
Jordan Evans	1	2	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -13.5
Closing total: 46
BAL moneyline: -799
CIN moneyline: +597

Ravens closed -13.5 and covered, winning by 35.

Total closed 46; the game landed 41 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 39°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: BAL 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Zac Taylor

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.