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2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
RavensBaltimore38
BY 35final margin
BengalsCincinnati3
Baltimore Ravens 38 at Cincinnati Bengals 3. Final.
Ravens -13.5 ✓U 46 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 17
Baltimore Ravens 38, Bengals 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 3:54, 1st and 10, on Miles Boykin — 4.9 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:54 · 1st and 10
Miles Boykin
Ravens
(3:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 80-M.Boykin for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Ravens closed -13.5 and covered, winning by 35.
Baltimore Ravens 38–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 3:54, Ravens +4.9% win probability on one snap.
4.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Justin TuckerBengalsQ1 8:11(8:11) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-J.Townsend.
4.6pts
Akeem Davis-GaitherBengalsQ2 14:11(14:11) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 13-D.Duvernay INTERCEPTED by 59-A.Davis-Gaither (70-M.Hunt) [94-S.Hubbard] at BAL 47. 59-A.Davis-Gaither to BAL 47 for no gain (89-M.Andrews).
3.9pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.43 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at -1.16 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.35 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.58 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Ravens won this one — 11 of 17 on third down, against Bengals at 1 of 9 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 47 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Ravens147 of 151 plays carry both curves
(3:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 80-M.Boykin for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −4.9 for BengalsExpected points −4.13 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 29 points higher than the market did.play 27
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 3:54CIN +5% win prob(3:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 80-M.Boykin for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:11BAL +5% win prob(8:11) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-J.Townsend.
2nd · 14:11BAL +4% win prob(14:11) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 13-D.Duvernay INTERCEPTED by 59-A.Davis-Gaither (70-M.Hunt) [94-S.Hubbard] at BAL 47. 59-A.Davis-Gaither to BAL 47 for no gain (89-M.Andrews).
1st · 12:31CIN +4% win prob(12:31) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles left end to CIN 49 for 13 yards (56-J.Bynes).
1st · 13:54BAL +3% win prob(13:54) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards right tackle to BAL 37 for 3 yards (30-J.Bates III; 59-A.Davis-Gaither).
1st · 15:00CIN +3% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards left tackle to BAL 29 for 4 yards (56-J.Bynes).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Tucker's 34-yard field goal with 8:11 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:11Justin Tucker·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder J.Townsend · snap M.CoxLead never changed again+33–0
Ravens ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±1.16 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.35Ravens: +0.35 expected points added per play
−0.58Bengals: −0.58 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.43Ravens: +0.43 expected points added per play
−1.16Bengals: −1.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.31Ravens: +0.31 expected points added per play
+0.05Bengals: +0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 73 snaps at a 33% dropback rate against Bengals’s 40 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 6, Bengals 2.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs -0.58.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BAL's early-down pass rate, 33.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 2.9 points clear of the next team along.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
BAL's pass rate over expected, −19.1 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 0.7 points clear of the next team along.
73 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 28 pts
inside their normal wobble · −8.0 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Bengals8.3%
inside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -18.4 pts, 17.8 points below their season mean of -0.6 pts and 1.6 times their own 11.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive
77Bradley BozemanG · Every snap100%74 snaps
78Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%74 snaps
72Ben PowersG · Every snap100%74 snaps
63Trystan Colon-CastilloC · Every snap100%74 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Heavy rotation77%57 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Heavy rotation69%51 snaps
15Marquise BrownWR · Heavy rotation58%43 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Heavy rotation57%42 snaps
74Tyre PhillipsG · Heavy rotation55%41 snaps
85Eric TomlinsonTE · Heavy rotation51%38 snaps
80Miles BoykinWR · Heavy rotation50%37 snaps
70D.J. FlukerG · Rotational45%33 snaps
27J.K. DobbinsRB · Rotational43%32 snaps
13Devin DuvernayWR · Rotational41%30 snaps
88Dez BryantWR · Rotational31%23 snaps
35Gus EdwardsRB · Rotational26%19 snaps
67Ben BredesonG · Situational23%17 snaps
2Tyler HuntleyQB · Situational23%17 snaps
21Mark IngramRB · Situational23%17 snaps
10Chris MooreWR · Situational16%12 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Situational12%9 snaps
Inactive · 7
Patrick MekariCJimmy SmithCBYannick NgakoueDEBroderick WashingtonDTJustin EllisNTWillie SneadWRJames ProcheWR
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
67Quinton SpainG · Every snap100%43 snaps
72Xavier Su'a-FiloG · Every snap100%43 snaps
8Brandon AllenQB · Every snap100%43 snaps
74Fred JohnsonT · Every snap100%43 snaps
68Bobby HartT · Every snap100%43 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Full-time95%41 snaps
12Alex EricksonWR · Full-time86%37 snaps
18A.J. GreenWR · Heavy rotation79%34 snaps
89Drew SampleTE · Heavy rotation72%31 snaps
66Trey HopkinsC · Heavy rotation51%22 snaps
53Billy PriceC · Rotational49%21 snaps
34Samaje PerineRB · Rotational44%19 snaps
25Giovani BernardRB · Rotational37%16 snaps
82Cethan CarterTE · Rotational28%12 snaps
80Mike ThomasWR · Situational23%10 snaps
32Trayveon WilliamsRB · Situational21%9 snaps
85Tee HigginsWR · Situational7%3 snaps
17Stanley MorganWR · Situational5%2 snaps
86Mason SchreckTE · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
William JacksonCBMackensie AlexanderCBKeaton SutherlandGAlex RedmondGLogan WilsonILBRandy BullockKMitchell WilcoxTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass+9% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(3:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 80-M.Boykin for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 3:54 · Ravens · 1st & 10 at CIN 43 · gained 43 · +4.13 EP · +9.3% win probability
145 snaps placed · 6 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 151 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 93 yards from the BAL 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
151 of 151 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
151
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
42%
Yards
720
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.6355%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.4929%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR16+0.5413%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR13+0.0338%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.9940%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR8-0.0013%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR3——
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Ravens3 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
151 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
151 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Ravens3Bengals0
Field goal14 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bengals 16
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 18 to the Bengals 20
Ravens9Bengals0
Ravens10Bengals0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 31 to the Bengals 43
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Bengals 22
The period ended4 plays, from the Ravens 22 to the Ravens 31
2nd quarter38 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Ravens 36 to the Ravens 41
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 47 to the Ravens 44
Ravens16Bengals0
Ravens17Bengals0
Touchdown19 plays, from the Ravens 7 to the Bengals 18
Ravens17Bengals3
Field goal9 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Ravens 20
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 43
Ravens23Bengals3
Ravens24Bengals3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Bengals 4
Punt5 plays
Ravens30Bengals3
Ravens31Bengals3
Touchdown11 plays, from midfield to the Bengals 9
Intercepted5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Ravens 1
Ravens37Bengals3
Ravens38Bengals3
Touchdown3 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 28
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 27
4th quarter32 plays
Punt1 play
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Bengals 24
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 24 to the Bengals 28
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 28 to the Ravens 31
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bengals 42 to the Ravens 26
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 4 to the Ravens 7
The period ended3 plays, from the Bengals 46 to midfield
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
