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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Cowboys174 of 189 plays carry both curves
(1:24) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney [99-L.Williams] at NYG -5. Touchback.
Swing +47.4 for GiantsExpected points +2.70 for GiantsThe model had Giants 14 points higher than the market did.play 180
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:24DAL +47% win prob(1:24) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney [99-L.Williams] at NYG -5. Touchback.
4th · 2:32NYG +24% win prob(2:32) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton left end ran ob at NYG 23 for 11 yards (29-X.McKinney).
1st · 7:18DAL +14% win prob(7:18) 8-D.Jones FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYG 23, RECOVERED by DAL-24-C.Awuzie at NYG 27.
4th · 15:00DAL +11% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at NYG 18 for -8 yards (51-K.Fackrell).
4th · 1:53DAL +11% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at NYG 17 for -10 yards (99-L.Williams).
4th · 7:52DAL +9% win prob(7:52) 8-D.Jones sacked at DAL 42 for -10 yards (37-D.Wilson).
3rd · 13:27DAL +9% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Sterling Shepard's 23-yard rushing touchdown with 11:55 left in the 1st put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:55Sterling Shepard·23-yd TD run23-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide leftLead never changed again+60–6
1st5:07Greg Zuerlein·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder H.Niswander · snap L.Ladouceur+33–6
2nd6:49Sterling Shepard·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+73–13
2nd2:18Greg Zuerlein·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder H.Niswander · snap L.Ladouceur+36–13
2nd0:52Dante Pettis·33-yd TD catch33-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+76–20
2nd0:04Greg Zuerlein·57-yd field goal57-yard field goalholder H.Niswander · snap L.Ladouceur+39–20
4th14:20Greg Zuerlein·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder H.Niswander · snap L.Ladouceur+319–20
4th6:32Graham Gano·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+319–23
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryGiants
Cowboys3–5Giants
307Total yards339
3.8Yards per play6.5
45%Success rate48%
35%Third-down rate0%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays8
24First downs19
6Sacks taken2
1Turnovers2
The read
Giants ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cowboys, in third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Cowboys: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.03Giants: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.15Cowboys: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.10Giants: +0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Cowboys: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.18Giants: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 80 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Giants’s 52 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 4, Giants 3.
NoteGiants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 44.2% in week 16 against 71.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
62 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
NYG's early-down pass rate turned over: 78.3% in week 16 against 50.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
leaned — got home · +7.8 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.06× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Giants15.8%
right on their number · −0.0 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 7.1 pts, 8.9 points above their season mean of -1.8 pts and 1.2 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Dalton pass−39% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:24) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney [99-L.Williams] at NYG -5. Touchback.
Q4 1:24 · Cowboys · 3rd & goal at NYG 17 · gained nothing · -2.70 EP · −38.9% win probability
172 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 78 yards from the NYG 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
42%
Yards
643
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61-0.1672%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.3164%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.3241%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.0157%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.2629%
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Cowboys0Giants6
Touchdown8 plays, from the Giants 22 to the Cowboys 23
Punt9 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Cowboys 48
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Giants 26
Cowboys3Giants6
Field goal6 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Giants 14
Punt9 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Cowboys 49
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 26
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter57 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 46 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 19 to the Cowboys 25
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 47 to midfield
Punt4 plays
Cowboys3Giants12
Cowboys3Giants13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Cowboys 10
Cowboys6Giants13
Field goal12 plays, from the Cowboys 28 to the Giants 28
Cowboys6Giants19
Cowboys6Giants20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cowboys 33
Cowboys9Giants20
Field goal13 plays, from the Cowboys 27 to the Giants 33
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 28
Intercepted2 plays
Cowboys15Giants20
Cowboys16Giants20
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cowboys 38 to the Giants 1
Punt9 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cowboys 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
The period ended12 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Giants 11
4th quarter50 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Cowboys19Giants20
Field goal2 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 32 to midfield
Cowboys19Giants23
Field goal8 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Cowboys 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.7 seconds
Intercepted21 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Giants 7
The period ended9 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 39
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -1.5
Closing total
44.5
Cowboys moneyline
-121
Giants moneyline
+109
Cowboys closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 42 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 37°F at kickoff; breezy at 12 mph out of the north-east; 0.05 in of precipitation; moderate drizzle.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Cowboys 7 days · Giants 7 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Joe Judge
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(13:27) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 88-E.Engram INTERCEPTED by 37-D.Wilson at DAL 43. 37-D.Wilson to NYG 42 for 15 yards (86-D.Slayton; 87-S.Shepard). PENALTY on DAL-24-C.Awuzie, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 48.
4th · 11:19DAL +8% win prob(11:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at DAL 46 for -4 yards (99-L.Williams).
