2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · MetLife Stadium

Dallas Cowboys

New York GiantsWinner

DAL -1.5 upsetU 44.5 ✓Cowboys closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Giants 23–19. Biggest swing: Q4 1:24, DAL +47% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:24DAL — NYG DAL ball · 3rd & 17DAL 57%

(1:24) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney [99-L.Williams] at NYG -5. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:24DAL +47% win prob(1:24) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney [99-L.Williams] at NYG -5. Touchback.
Q4 · 2:32NYG +24% win prob(2:32) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton left end ran ob at NYG 23 for 11 yards (29-X.McKinney).
Q1 · 7:18DAL +14% win prob(7:18) 8-D.Jones FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYG 23, RECOVERED by DAL-24-C.Awuzie at NYG 27.
Q4 · 15:00DAL +11% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at NYG 18 for -8 yards (51-K.Fackrell).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cowboys	Giants
Offensive plays	80	52
Total yards	307	339 (edge)
Yards per play	3.8	6.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.10	-0.03 (edge)
Success rate	45%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	71%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15	0.10 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.18
Third downs	6/17 (edge)	0/6
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	6	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Giants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Andy DaltonQB

29/47, 244 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-9.7 expected points added · -6.2% completion over expected

Passing · NYG

Daniel JonesQB

17/25, 229 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

3.0 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected

Rushing · NYG

Wayne GallmanRB

11 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Andy DaltonQB

7 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

4.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYG

Sterling ShepardWR

8/10 for 112 yds, 1 TD

40% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

Dalton SchultzTE

7/10 for 70 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 0.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYG	NYG 22	8	78	3:14	Touchdown
2	DAL	DAL 23	8	10	3:18	Punt
3	NYG	NYG 14	3	12	1:18	Fumble
4	DAL	NYG 27	6	7	2:07	Turnover on downs
5	NYG	NYG 20	8	19	3:29	Punt
6	DAL	DAL 20	4	6	1:30	Punt
7	NYG	NYG 35	5	15	1:43	Punt
8	DAL	DAL 19	4	6	1:43	Punt
9	NYG	NYG 47	4	3	0:59	Punt
10	DAL	DAL 12	4	0	0:51	Punt
11	NYG	NYG 35	7	50	3:06	Touchdown
12	DAL	DAL 28	11	44	4:29	Turnover on downs
13	NYG	NYG 25	6	62	1:28	Touchdown
14	DAL	DAL 27	7	40	0:45	Turnover on downs
15	DAL	DAL 25	5	3	0:54	Punt
16	NYG	NYG 42	2	0	0:53	Interception
17	DAL	DAL 38	11	57	4:34	Touchdown
18	NYG	NYG 25	8	42	4:09	Punt
19	DAL	DAL 20	13	62	5:14	Turnover on downs
20	NYG	NYG 27	5	-9	1:43	Punt
21	DAL	DAL 32	5	14	1:56	Punt
22	NYG	NYG 20	8	48	4:10	Turnover on downs
23	DAL	DAL 25	18	58	5:12	Interception
24	NYG	NYG 20	5	19	1:15	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Giants gained 78 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	29/47	244	0	1	6	-9.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Andy Dalton	7	48	6.9	0	4.5
Ezekiel Elliott	14	42	3.0	1	-1.7
Tony Pollard	5	15	3.0	0	-0.8
CeeDee Lamb	1	3	3.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Dalton Schultz	7	10	70	23%	0.9
Michael Gallup	4	8	49	18%	-0.5
CeeDee Lamb	5	7	43	16%	-0.3
Amari Cooper	6	9	41	20%	0.1
Ezekiel Elliott	3	4	19	9%	1.5
Tony Pollard	3	5	19	11%	-0.9
Cedrick Wilson	1	1	3	2%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jaylon Smith	9	1	0.0	0	0
Sean Lee	3	3	0.0	0	0
Donovan Wilson	1	3	1.0	1	1
Trevon Diggs	4	0	0.0	0	2
Neville Gallimore	1	3	0.0	0	0
Demarcus Lawrence	3	1	1.0	0	0
Anthony Brown	3	1	0.0	0	0
Rico Dowdle	1	2	0.0	0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	1	2	0.0	0	0
Xavier Woods	2	0	0.0	0	0

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Daniel Jones	17/25	229	2	1	2	3.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Wayne Gallman	11	65	5.9	0	-0.4
Sterling Shepard	2	24	12.0	1	4.1
Daniel Jones	9	17	1.9	0	-7.7
Alfred Morris	5	12	2.4	0	-0.9
Dion Lewis	1	7	7.0	0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Sterling Shepard	8	10	112	1	40%	5.4
Dante Pettis	2	2	43	1	8%	4.0
Darius Slayton	2	4	22	0	16%	0.4
Evan Engram	2	4	17	0	16%	-3.9
Kaden Smith	1	1	16	0	4%	0.9
Levine Toilolo	1	1	10	0	4%	0.9
Austin Mack	1	1	9	0	4%	1.2
Alfred Morris	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6
Dion Lewis	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Blake Martinez	4	5	1.0	0	0
Jabrill Peppers	4	4	0.0	0	1
Tae Crowder	4	4	0.0	0	0
Xavier McKinney	4	4	0.0	1	1
Julian Love	5	2	0.0	0	1
Leonard Williams	4	2	3.0	0	1
David Mayo	3	2	0.0	0	0
James Bradberry	4	0	0.0	0	1
Kyler Fackrell	3	0	1.0	0	0
B.J. Hill	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -1.5
Closing total: 44.5
DAL moneyline: -121
NYG moneyline: +109

Cowboys closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 42 — under by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 33°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: DAL 7 days · NYG 7 days
Coaches: Mike McCarthy vs Joe Judge

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.