2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · Soldier Field

Green Bay PackersWinner

Chicago Bears

GB -4.5 ✓O 48.5 ✓32°FPackers closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 19.

Green Bay Packers 35–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 8:40, CHI +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 8:40GB — CHI GB ball · 3rd & 4GB 56%

(8:40) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 8:40CHI +21% win prob(8:40) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 12:33CHI +13% win prob(12:33) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to GB 10, Center-48-P.Scales. 16-T.Austin to GB 17 for 7 yards (86-D.Harris). FUMBLES (86-D.Harris), RECOVERED by CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson at GB 20.
Q4 · 11:27GB +12% win prob(11:27) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short right to 12-A.Robinson (39-C.Sullivan).
Q3 · 8:37CHI +9% win prob(8:37) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep middle to 11-D.Mooney to GB 9 for 53 yards (26-D.Savage) [91-P.Smith].

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Packers	Bears
Offensive plays	44	74
Total yards	316	356 (edge)
Yards per play	7.2 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	0.48 (edge)	-0.12
Success rate	59% (edge)	50%
Dropback rate	59%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.80 (edge)	-0.15
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02 (edge)	-0.06
Third downs	4/7 (edge)	6/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	3
First downs gained on snaps	16	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Bears outgained Packers 356–316 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

33/42, 252 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-3.5 expected points added · +9.7% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

19/24, 240 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

20.8 expected points added · +14.2% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

22 att, 69 yds, 1 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

11 att, 42 yds, 1 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Darnell MooneyWR

11/13 for 93 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 3.3 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR

2/3 for 87 yds, 1 TD

13% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 40	16	60	7:29	Touchdown
2	GB	GB 20	14	64	7:36	Touchdown
3	CHI	CHI 25	7	12	2:35	Punt
4	CHI	GB 20	4	8	2:12	Turnover on downs
5	GB	GB 22	5	83	1:37	Touchdown
6	CHI	CHI 20	3	3	0:54	Fumble
7	GB	CHI 22	7	42	3:40	Touchdown
8	CHI	CHI 29	14	57	3:54	Fumble
9	GB	—	1	0	0:03	End of half
10	GB	GB 28	7	16	2:40	Punt
11	CHI	CHI 11	11	87	6:50	Turnover on downs
12	GB	GB 25	5	9	1:04	Punt
13	CHI	CHI 24	15	51	8:04	Turnover on downs
14	GB	GB 24	13	76	7:35	Touchdown
15	CHI	CHI 25	3	4	0:34	Interception
16	GB	CHI 26	4	26	0:17	Touchdown
17	CHI	CHI 25	12	74	2:56	End of game

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 87 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	19/24	240	4	0	1	20.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	11	42	3.8	1	-0.1
Jamaal Williams	5	26	5.2	0	0.5
Aaron Rodgers	1	4	4.0	0	0.0
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1	4	4.0	0	-0.0
A.J. Dillon	1	3	3.0	0	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	2	3	87	1	13%	8.2
Davante Adams	6	6	46	1	25%	6.7
Aaron Jones	4	5	43	0	21%	2.4
Robert Tonyan	2	2	18	1	8%	2.8
Allen Lazard	2	4	17	0	17%	0.7
Dominique Dafney	1	1	13	1	4%	3.1
Marcedes Lewis	1	1	9	0	4%	-0.5
Tavon Austin	1	1	7	0	4%	0.2
Equanimeous St. Brown	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Krys Barnes	8	6	0.0	0	0
Kevin King	7	3	0.0	0	2
Darnell Savage	8	2	0.0	0	0
Adrian Amos	6	3	0.0	1	1
Kenny Clark	2	4	0.0	0	0
Christian Kirksey	4	2	1.0	0	0
Chandon Sullivan	3	3	0.0	0	1
Rashan Gary	3	3	0.0	0	0
Dean Lowry	2	3	0.0	0	0
Jaire Alexander	2	1	0.0	0	1

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	33/42	252	0	1	1	-3.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Montgomery	22	69	3.1	1	-3.3
Mitchell Trubisky	4	22	5.5	0	4.2
Cordarrelle Patterson	4	18	4.5	0	0.3
Artavis Pierce	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Darnell Mooney	11	13	93	32%	3.3
David Montgomery	9	9	63	22%	-1.1
Cole Kmet	7	8	41	20%	-7.0
Allen Robinson	2	5	37	12%	0.5
Anthony Miller	2	2	13	5%	3.2
Jimmy Graham	2	2	5	5%	-4.4
Javon Wims	0	2	0	5%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Danny Trevathan	4	5	0.0
Khalil Mack	3	1	1.0
Kyle Fuller	3	1	0.0
Eddie Jackson	2	2	0.0
Josh Woods	3	1	0.0
Roquan Smith	1	2	0.0
Tashaun Gipson	1	2	0.0
Sherrick McManis	2	0	0.0
Demetrius Harris	2	0	0.0
Akiem Hicks	2	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -4.5
Closing total: 48.5
GB moneyline: -207
CHI moneyline: +184

Packers closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 19.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 51 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 32°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: GB 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches: Matt LaFleur vs Matt Nagy

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.