For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending.mdto eligible URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown.
2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · Soldier Field
35
16
Green Bay Packers 35–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 8:40, CHI +21% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(8:40) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Packers | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 44 | 74 |
| Total yards | 316 | 356 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 7.2 (edge) | 4.8 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.48 (edge) | -0.12 |
| Success rate | 59% (edge) | 50% |
| Dropback rate | 59% | 61% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.80 (edge) | -0.15 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.02 (edge) | -0.06 |
| Third downs | 4/7 (edge) | 6/15 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 3 | 3 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 16 | 21 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 1 | 1 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 3 |
Bears outgained Packers 356–316 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Passing · CHI
33/42, 252 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-3.5 expected points added · +9.7% completion over expected
Passing · GB
19/24, 240 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
20.8 expected points added · +14.2% completion over expected
Receiving · CHI
11/13 for 93 yds, 0 TD
32% of team targets · 3.3 expected points added
Receiving · GB
2/3 for 87 yds, 1 TD
13% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | CHI 40 | 16 | 60 | 7:29 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | GB | GB 20 | 14 | 64 | 7:36 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | CHI | CHI 25 | 7 | 12 | 2:35 | Punt | |
| 4 | CHI | GB 20 | 4 | 8 | 2:12 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | GB | GB 22 | 5 | 83 | 1:37 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | CHI | CHI 20 | 3 | 3 | 0:54 | Fumble | |
| 7 | GB | CHI 22 | 7 | 42 | 3:40 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | CHI | CHI 29 | 14 | 57 | 3:54 | Fumble | |
| 9 | GB | — | 1 | 0 | 0:03 | End of half | |
| 10 | GB | GB 28 | 7 | 16 | 2:40 | Punt | |
| 11 | CHI | CHI 11 | 11 | 87 | 6:50 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | GB | GB 25 | 5 | 9 | 1:04 | Punt | |
| 13 | CHI | CHI 24 | 15 | 51 | 8:04 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | GB | GB 24 | 13 | 76 | 7:35 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | CHI | CHI 25 | 3 | 4 | 0:34 | Interception | |
| 16 | GB | CHI 26 | 4 | 26 | 0:17 | Touchdown | |
| 17 | CHI | CHI 25 | 12 | 74 | 2:56 | End of game |
0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 87 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a turnover on downs.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 19/24 | 240 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 20.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 1 | -0.1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | -0.0 |
| A.J. Dillon | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 3 | 87 | 1 | 13% | 8.2 |
| Davante Adams | 6 | 6 | 46 | 1 | 25% | 6.7 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 21% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krys Barnes | 8 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin King | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Darnell Savage | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Amos |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 33/42 | 252 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 22 | 69 | 3.1 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 19.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 51 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2.4 |
| Robert Tonyan | 2 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 8% | 2.8 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 17% | 0.7 |
| Dominique Dafney | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 4% | 3.1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | -0.5 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | 0.2 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -1.3 |
| 6 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Kenny Clark | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirksey | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chandon Sullivan | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rashan Gary | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Lowry | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaire Alexander | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| -3.3 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 | 4.2 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Artavis Pierce | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | -1.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 11 | 13 | 93 | 0 | 32% | 3.3 |
| David Montgomery | 9 | 9 | 63 | 0 | 22% | -1.1 |
| Cole Kmet | 7 | 8 | 41 | 0 | 20% | -7.0 |
| Allen Robinson | 2 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 12% | 0.5 |
| Anthony Miller | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 5% | 3.2 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5% | -4.4 |
| Javon Wims | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | -0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Trevathan | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Mack | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Fuller | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eddie Jackson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Woods | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roquan Smith | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sherrick McManis | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Akiem Hicks | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
