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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:44 AM ET · 1 to play · 15 final
2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
JaguarsJacksonville14
BY 14final margin
ColtsIndianapolis28
Jacksonville Jaguars 14 at Indianapolis Colts 28. Final.
Colts -15.5 no coverU 48 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 17
Indianapolis Colts 28, Jaguars 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 13:10, 4th and 6 — 5.8 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Dome
Colts closed -15.5, won by 14 — but didn't cover.
Indianapolis Colts 28–14. Biggest swing: Q1 13:10, Colts +5.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:10 · 4th and 6
Unnamed on the sheet
Colts
(13:10) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to IND 15, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 21-N.Hines to IND 22 for 7 yards (53-D.Allen).
5.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chris ConleyJaguarsQ1 14:56(14:56) 2-M.Glennon pass short middle to 18-C.Conley to JAX 40 for 15 yards (54-A.Walker, 23-K.Moore).
4.4pts
Unnamed on the sheetJaguarsQ4 6:00(6:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 37 yards to JAX 8, impetus ends at JAX 5, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 40-B.Rusnak to JAX 11 for 3 yards (30-G.Odum).
3.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Colts won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 3 chunk plays.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Colts at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Colts won this one — +0.21 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.25 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Colts won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.26 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Jaguars162 of 170 plays carry both curves
(13:10) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to IND 15, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 21-N.Hines to IND 22 for 7 yards (53-D.Allen).
Swing +5.8 for ColtsExpected points +0.41 for ColtsThe model had Jaguars 27 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:10JAX +6% win prob(13:10) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to IND 15, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 21-N.Hines to IND 22 for 7 yards (53-D.Allen).
1st · 14:56IND +4% win prob(14:56) 2-M.Glennon pass short middle to 18-C.Conley to JAX 40 for 15 yards (54-A.Walker, 23-K.Moore).
4th · 6:00JAX +4% win prob(6:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 37 yards to JAX 8, impetus ends at JAX 5, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 40-B.Rusnak to JAX 11 for 3 yards (30-G.Odum).
3rd · 6:32IND +3% win prob(6:32) 2-M.Glennon pass short right to 10-L.Shenault Jr. for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:06JAX +3% win prob(13:06) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon sacked at JAX 36 for -9 yards (53-D.Leonard). FUMBLES (53-D.Leonard) [53-D.Leonard], RECOVERED by IND-38-T.Carrie at JAX 40. 38-T.Carrie to JAX 15 for 25 yards (10-L.Shenault Jr.). FUMBLES (10-L.Shenault Jr.), ball out of bounds at JAX 10. Sack credited to IND #53 for -5 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
3rd · 1:58JAX +3% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
T.Y. Hilton's 6-yard touchdown catch with 10:20 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:20T.Y. Hilton·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip RiversLead never changed again+70–7
1st1:19Rodrigo Blankenship·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+30–10
Colts ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.26Jaguars: −0.26 expected points added per play
+0.13Colts: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.26Jaguars: −0.26 expected points added per play
+0.03Colts: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.25Jaguars: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.21Colts: +0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 65 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Colts’s 63 at 44%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 2, Colts 5.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
IND's sack or hit rate turned over: 4.0% in week 16 against 20.8% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.6 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Colts20.8%
leaned — got home · +8.5 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.37× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteIND's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 20.8%, 8.5 points above their season mean of 12.4% and 1.4 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Taylor left+10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:22) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle pushed ob at JAX 11 for 56 yards (27-C.Claybrooks).
Q1 12:22 · Colts · 2nd & 10 at IND 33 · gained 56 · +3.92 EP · +10.3% win probability
160 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 80 yards from the IND 16 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
42%
Yards
722
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53-0.2279%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.3551%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.0925%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.3150%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Colts0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Jaguars0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Jaguars0Colts6
Jaguars0Colts7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Jaguars 6
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 32
Jaguars0Colts10
Field goal14 plays, from the Colts 16 to the Jaguars 2
The period ended4 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 27
2nd quarter49 plays
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Jaguars 31 to the Jaguars 45
Jaguars0Colts16
Jaguars0Colts17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jaguars 15 to the Jaguars 1
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 22 to the Jaguars 23
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Colts 39
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Jaguars 22 to the Jaguars 49
Jaguars0Colts20
Field goal8 plays, from the Jaguars 49 to the Jaguars 6
Jaguars6Colts20
Jaguars7Colts20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Colts 9
No good9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Jaguars 38
3rd quarter36 plays
No good7 plays, from the Colts 33 to the Jaguars 31
Jaguars13Colts20
Jaguars14Colts20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jaguars 39 to the Colts 8
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 34
Punt4 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Jaguars 37
The period ended5 plays, from the Jaguars 13 to the Jaguars 32
4th quarter47 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Colts 31 to the Jaguars 40
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Colts 48
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 28 to the Jaguars 44
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 11 to the Jaguars 15
Jaguars14Colts26
Jaguars14Colts28
Touchdown3 plays, from midfield to the Jaguars 45
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 49
The period ended7 plays, from the Colts 47 to the Jaguars 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Colts -15.5
Closing total
48
Jaguars moneyline
+906
Colts moneyline
-1350
Colts closed -15.5, won by 14 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 48; the game landed 42 — under by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Jaguars 7 days · Colts 7 days
Coaches
Doug Marrone vs Frank Reich
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(1:58) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle intended for 13-T.Hilton INTERCEPTED by 42-A.Wingard at JAX -6. 42-A.Wingard to JAX 13 for 19 yards (13-T.Hilton).
4th · 8:36JAX +3% win prob(8:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon sacked at JAX 47 for -5 yards (57-K.Turay).
4th · 4:36JAX +3% win prob(4:36) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to IND 39, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 21-N.Hines to 50 for 11 yards (42-A.Wingard).
Jaguarscategory by categoryColts
Jaguars0
Colts6
