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2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium
14
28
Indianapolis Colts 28–14. Biggest swing: Q1 13:10, JAX +6% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(13:10) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to IND 15, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 21-N.Hines to IND 22 for 7 yards (53-D.Allen).
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Jaguars | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 65 | 63 |
| Total yards | 283 | 441 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.4 | 7.0 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.26 | 0.13 (edge) |
| Success rate | 38% | 51% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 74% | 44% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.26 | 0.03 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.25 | 0.21 (edge) |
| Third downs | 5/15 (edge) | 3/10 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 3 | 9 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 18 | 22 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 6 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Who moved the needle
Passing · JAX
26/42, 261 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-12.6 expected points added · -6.1% completion over expected
Passing · IND
17/27, 164 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
1.0 expected points added · -7.0% completion over expected
Receiving · JAX
6/9 for 68 yds, 2 TD
23% of team targets · -1.6 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | JAX 25 | 7 | 19 | 2:01 | Punt | |
| 2 | IND | IND 22 | 7 | 78 | 2:43 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | JAX | JAX 25 | 5 | 7 | 1:34 | Punt | |
| 4 | IND | IND 16 | 13 | 95 | 7:26 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | JAX | JAX 25 | 7 | 15 | 3:19 | Fumble | |
| 6 | IND | JAX 15 | 4 | 15 | 1:17 | Touchdown | |
| 7 | JAX | JAX 22 | 5 | -7 | 1:29 | Punt | |
| 8 | IND | IND 32 | 4 | 6 | 1:50 | Punt | |
| 9 | JAX | JAX 22 | 5 | 27 | 2:00 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | IND | JAX 49 | 7 | 19 | 3:43 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | JAX | JAX 25 | 9 | 75 | 2:11 | Touchdown | |
| 12 | IND | IND 25 | 6 | 37 | 0:27 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | IND | IND 33 | 6 | 36 | 2:53 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | JAX | JAX 39 | 11 | 61 | 5:41 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | IND | IND 25 | 5 | 9 | 2:05 | Punt | |
| 16 | JAX | JAX 26 | 4 | 0 | 0:20 | Punt | |
| 17 | IND | IND 22 | 4 | 41 | 2:15 | Interception | |
| 18 | JAX | JAX 13 | 7 | 12 | 2:01 | Punt | |
| 19 | IND | IND 31 | 8 | 29 | 3:43 | Punt | |
| 20 | JAX | JAX 20 | 8 | 27 | 3:07 | Punt | |
| 21 | IND | IND 28 | 6 | 12 | 2:05 | Punt | |
| 22 | JAX | JAX 11 | 4 | 4 | 1:24 | Punt | |
| 23 | IND | 50 | 3 | 52 | 0:51 | Touchdown | |
| 24 | JAX | JAX 25 | 8 | 43 | 1:15 | Turnover on downs | |
| 25 | IND | IND 47 | 5 | 12 | 2:20 | End of game |
0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 95 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a turnover on downs.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 26/42 | 261 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -12.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dare Ogunbowale | 14 | 50 | 3.6 | 0 | -3.3 |
| Terry Godwin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Mike Glennon | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Conley | 7 | 9 | 87 | 0 | 23% | 7.8 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 6 | 9 | 68 | 2 | 23% | -1.6 |
| Terry Godwin | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 10% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrod Wilson | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Schobert | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Wingard | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Chris Claybrooks |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 17/27 | 164 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 30 | 253 | 8.4 | 2 |
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -15.5, won by 14 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 48; the game landed 42 — under by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 0.8 |
| Keelan Cole | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 18% | -1.4 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 4 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 18% | -5.0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 5% | 0.7 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | -0.2 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | 0.8 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Tre Herndon | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Jack | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Greg Mabin | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Giles-Harris | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dawuane Smoot | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Ekuale | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8.5 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | -1.4 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Philip Rivers | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | -2.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 6 | 7 | 50 | 0 | 27% | -0.8 |
| Zach Pascal | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 15% | 1.4 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 8% | 3.8 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 7 | 27 | 1 | 27% | -1.4 |
| Jack Doyle | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 12% | 0.2 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8% | -2.0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaquille Leonard | 7 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kenny Moore | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tavon Wilson | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grover Stewart | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Blackmon | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Carrie | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeForest Buckner | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bobby Okereke | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Walker | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Xavier Rhodes | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
