2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

IND -15.5 no coverU 48 ✓DomeColts closed -15.5, won by 14 — but didn't cover.

Indianapolis Colts 28–14. Biggest swing: Q1 13:10, JAX +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 13:10JAX — IND JAX ball · 4th & 6IND 89%

(13:10) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to IND 15, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 21-N.Hines to IND 22 for 7 yards (53-D.Allen).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 13:10JAX +6% win prob(13:10) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to IND 15, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 21-N.Hines to IND 22 for 7 yards (53-D.Allen).
Q1 · 14:56IND +4% win prob(14:56) 2-M.Glennon pass short middle to 18-C.Conley to JAX 40 for 15 yards (54-A.Walker, 23-K.Moore).
Q4 · 6:00JAX +4% win prob(6:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 37 yards to JAX 8, impetus ends at JAX 5, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 40-B.Rusnak to JAX 11 for 3 yards (30-G.Odum).
Q3 · 6:32IND +3% win prob(6:32) 2-M.Glennon pass short right to 10-L.Shenault Jr. for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Colts
Offensive plays	65	63
Total yards	283	441 (edge)
Yards per play	4.4	7.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.26	0.13 (edge)
Success rate	38%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	74%	44%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	0.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25	0.21 (edge)
Third downs	5/15 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.26.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Mike GlennonQB

26/42, 261 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-12.6 expected points added · -6.1% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Philip RiversQB

17/27, 164 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.0 expected points added · -7.0% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

30 att, 253 yds, 2 TD

8.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Dare OgunbowaleRB

14 att, 50 yds, 0 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Chris ConleyWR

7/9 for 87 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Laviska Shenault Jr.WR

6/9 for 68 yds, 2 TD

23% of team targets · -1.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 25	7	19	2:01	Punt
2	IND	IND 22	7	78	2:43	Touchdown
3	JAX	JAX 25	5	7	1:34	Punt
4	IND	IND 16	13	95	7:26	Turnover on downs
5	JAX	JAX 25	7	15	3:19	Fumble
6	IND	JAX 15	4	15	1:17	Touchdown
7	JAX	JAX 22	5	-7	1:29	Punt
8	IND	IND 32	4	6	1:50	Punt
9	JAX	JAX 22	5	27	2:00	Turnover on downs
10	IND	JAX 49	7	19	3:43	Turnover on downs
11	JAX	JAX 25	9	75	2:11	Touchdown
12	IND	IND 25	6	37	0:27	Turnover on downs
13	IND	IND 33	6	36	2:53	Turnover on downs
14	JAX	JAX 39	11	61	5:41	Touchdown
15	IND	IND 25	5	9	2:05	Punt
16	JAX	JAX 26	4	0	0:20	Punt
17	IND	IND 22	4	41	2:15	Interception
18	JAX	JAX 13	7	12	2:01	Punt
19	IND	IND 31	8	29	3:43	Punt
20	JAX	JAX 20	8	27	3:07	Punt
21	IND	IND 28	6	12	2:05	Punt
22	JAX	JAX 11	4	4	1:24	Punt
23	IND	50	3	52	0:51	Touchdown
24	JAX	JAX 25	8	43	1:15	Turnover on downs
25	IND	IND 47	5	12	2:20	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 95 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mike Glennon	26/42	261	2	0	6	-12.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Dare Ogunbowale	14	50	3.6	-3.3
Terry Godwin	1	3	3.0	-0.4
Mike Glennon	1	2	2.0	0.4
Laviska Shenault Jr.	1	-2	-2.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Conley	7	9	87	0	23%	7.8
Laviska Shenault Jr.	6	9	68	2	23%	-1.6
Terry Godwin	3	4	32	0	10%	0.8
Keelan Cole	3	7	23	0	18%	-1.4
Dare Ogunbowale	4	7	22	0	18%	-5.0
Tyler Eifert	1	2	10	0	5%	0.7
James O'Shaughnessy	1	1	10	0	3%	-0.2
Eric Saubert	1	1	9	0	3%	0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Jarrod Wilson	3	6	0	0
Joe Schobert	2	4	0	0
Andrew Wingard	5	1	1	1
Chris Claybrooks	5	1	0	0
Tre Herndon	4	1	0	0
Myles Jack	4	0	0	1
Greg Mabin	3	0	0	0
Joe Giles-Harris	1	2	0	0
Dawuane Smoot	2	0	0	0
Daniel Ekuale	1	1	0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	17/27	164	1	1	0	1.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	30	253	8.4	2	8.5
Nyheim Miller-Hines	2	17	8.5	0	0.7
Jacoby Brissett	2	3	1.5	0	-1.4
Michael Pittman	1	2	2.0	0	-0.5
Philip Rivers	2	-2	-1.0	0	-2.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nyheim Miller-Hines	6	7	50	0	27%	-0.8
Zach Pascal	2	4	41	0	15%	1.4
Michael Pittman	2	2	28	0	8%	3.8
T.Y. Hilton	3	7	27	1	27%	-1.4
Jack Doyle	3	3	17	0	12%	0.2
Jonathan Taylor	1	2	1	0	8%	-2.0
Ashton Dulin	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Shaquille Leonard	7	2	1.0	2
Kenny Moore	5	3	1.0	1
Tavon Wilson	5	0	0.0	0
Grover Stewart	3	1	0.5	0
Julian Blackmon	4	0	0.0	0
T.J. Carrie	4	0	0.0	0
DeForest Buckner	2	1	2.0	1
Bobby Okereke	2	1	0.0	0
Anthony Walker	2	1	0.0	1
Xavier Rhodes	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -15.5
Closing total: 48
JAX moneyline: +906
IND moneyline: -1350

Colts closed -15.5, won by 14 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 48; the game landed 42 — under by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: JAX 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Doug Marrone vs Frank Reich

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.