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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:46 AM ET · 1 to play · 15 final
Game Center
Game Center
2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · Arrowhead Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2020 Week 17
It turned at Q2 12:06, 4th and 10 — 12.4 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Los Angeles Chargers 38–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 12:06, Chargers +12.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:06 · 4th and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
Chargers
(12:06) 1-T.Long punts 40 yards to KC 12, Center-45-C.Mazza. 17-M.Hardman MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-12-J.Reed at KC 17.
12.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chargers won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 3 chunk plays.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Chargers at 4 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.05 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.27 expected points per carry.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 9 on third down, against Chargers at 3 of 6 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 17.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chiefs.
(12:06) 1-T.Long punts 40 yards to KC 12, Center-45-C.Mazza. 17-M.Hardman MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-12-J.Reed at KC 17.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Isaac Rochell's safety with 1:48 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chargerscategory by categoryChiefs
Chargers ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 67 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 50 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 7, Chiefs 3.
Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs 0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
KC's sack or hit rate turned over: 30.8% in week 16 against 13.9% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points. · −0.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 29 pts
Over Expected room →Chargers0.4 ptsright on their number · +2.0 vs their -1.7 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 66 snaps
Chiefs9.7 ptsright on their number · −0.2 vs their 9.8 pts, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 50 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 90%
Tendencies room →Chargers49.2%inside their normal wobble · −6.5 vs their 55.6%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 59 early downs
Chiefs65.0%right on their number · +2.2 vs their 62.8%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 40 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -47% to 116%
Fourth Down room →Chargers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 40.7%.
Chiefs—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 32.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 30%
Tendencies room →Chargers15.2%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Chiefs13.9%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was LAC's early-down pass rate, 49.2% against a season mean of 55.6% — and LAC swings 9.7 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 12 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 12
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
22/31, 302 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
20.8 expected points added · +6.8% completion over expected
Passing · KC
23/32, 218 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
12.9 expected points added · +3.7% completion over expected
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:36) (Shotgun) 4-C.Henne pass short right to 34-D.Thompson pushed ob at LAC 18 for 37 yards (24-N.Adderley).
Q1 13:36 · Chiefs · 3rd & 9 at KC 45 · gained 37 · +3.75 EP · +13.3% win probability
147 snaps placed · 7 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 154 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 77 yards from the LAC 22 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chargers0
Chiefs6Chargers0Chiefs7Chargers6Chiefs7Chargers7Chiefs7Chargers7Chiefs13Chargers7Chiefs14Chargers13Chiefs14Chargers14Chiefs14Chargers16Chiefs14Chargers22Chiefs14Chargers24Chiefs14Chargers30Chiefs14Chargers31Chiefs14Chargers31Chiefs20Chargers31Chiefs21Chargers37Chiefs21Chargers38Chiefs21Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chargers at Chiefs, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 22/31 | 302 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +20.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jackson | 9 | 72 | 8.0 | 0 | +4.6 |
| Kalen Ballage | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 1 | −0.5 |
| Austin Ekeler | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 6 | 7 | 108 | 1 | 23% | +10.6 |
| Stephen Anderson | 3 | 3 | 52 | 0 | 10% | +5.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Perryman | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nasir Adderley | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Harris | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Davis |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 23/32 | 218 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +12.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darwin Thompson |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2020_17_LAC_KC
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -7 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 43; the game landed 59 — over by 16.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Justin Herbert | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 1 | −6.4 |
| Donald Parham | 3 | 4 | 37 | 1 | 13% | +3.9 |
| Tyron Johnson | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 7% | +3.2 |
| Austin Ekeler | 6 | 7 | 33 | 1 | 23% | +3.1 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 7% | +2.9 |
| Gabe Nabers | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13% | −3.6 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Justin Jones | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Murray | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Linval Joseph | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tevaughn Campbell | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerry Tillery | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alohi Gilman | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |
| 45 |
| 3.2 |
| 1 |
| −4.1 |
| Anthony Sherman | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Chad Henne | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darwin Thompson | 7 | 7 | 65 | 1 | 23% | +5.9 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 6 | 7 | 58 | 0 | 23% | +4.1 |
| Byron Pringle | 4 | 6 | 52 | 1 | 19% | +5.1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 6% | +2.4 |
| Gehrig Dieter | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | +0.1 |
| Deon Yelder | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 19% | −2.6 |
| Darrel Williams | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Harris | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Armani Watts | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thakarius Keyes | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deandre Baker | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tim Ward | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damien Wilson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Thornhill | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashad Fenton | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Pennel | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Danna | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
