2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · Arrowhead Stadium

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

Kansas City Chiefs

LAC -7 ✓O 43 ✓Chargers closed -7 and covered, winning by 17.

Los Angeles Chargers 38–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 12:06, KC +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 12:06LAC — KC LAC ball · 4th & 10LAC 55%

(12:06) 1-T.Long punts 40 yards to KC 12, Center-45-C.Mazza. 17-M.Hardman MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-12-J.Reed at KC 17.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 12:06KC +12% win prob(12:06) 1-T.Long punts 40 yards to KC 12, Center-45-C.Mazza. 17-M.Hardman MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-12-J.Reed at KC 17.
Q2 · 1:56LAC +9% win prob(1:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to KC 1 for 1 yard (99-K.Saunders).
Q1 · 13:36KC +8% win prob(13:36) (Shotgun) 4-C.Henne pass short right to 34-D.Thompson pushed ob at LAC 18 for 37 yards (24-N.Adderley).
Q2 · 7:00KC +8% win prob(7:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 81-M.Williams to LAC 40 for 20 yards (22-J.Thornhill).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Chiefs
Offensive plays	67	50
Total yards	420 (edge)	268
Yards per play	6.3 (edge)	5.4
Expected points added / play	0.33 (edge)	0.17
Success rate	54% (edge)	50%
Dropback rate	54%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.58 (edge)	0.39
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	-0.27
Third downs	3/6	6/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	27 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0	0

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs 0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

22/31, 302 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

20.8 expected points added · +6.8% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Chad HenneQB

23/32, 218 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

12.9 expected points added · +3.7% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Justin JacksonRB

9 att, 72 yds, 0 TD

4.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Darwin ThompsonRB

14 att, 45 yds, 1 TD

-4.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Mike WilliamsWR

6/7 for 108 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 10.6 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Darwin ThompsonRB

7/7 for 65 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 44	9	53	3:41	Touchdown
2	LAC	LAC 25	14	75	6:56	Touchdown
3	KC	KC 28	14	67	5:42	Touchdown
4	LAC	LAC 25	7	23	1:44	Punt
5	LAC	KC 17	5	17	2:06	Touchdown
6	KC	KC 26	5	3	1:34	Punt
7	LAC	LAC 22	15	77	6:23	Turnover on downs
8	KC	KC 1	2	-1	0:11	Turnover on downs
9	LAC	LAC 41	7	25	1:27	Touchdown
10	KC	KC 39	2	-1	0:16	End of half
11	LAC	LAC 25	9	22	3:52	Punt
12	KC	KC 8	13	63	7:04	Turnover on downs
13	LAC	LAC 30	7	70	3:17	Touchdown
14	KC	KC 26	11	74	3:58	Touchdown
15	LAC	LAC 23	8	77	3:40	Touchdown
16	KC	KC 20	5	10	2:45	Punt
17	LAC	LAC 42	9	34	5:24	End of game

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 77 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	22/31	302	3	0	3	20.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Justin Jackson	9	72	8.0	0	4.6
Kalen Ballage	13	36	2.8	1	-0.5
Austin Ekeler	7	18	2.6	0	-1.1
Justin Herbert	6	9	1.5	1	-6.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Williams	6	7	108	1	23%	10.6
Stephen Anderson	3	3	52	0	10%	5.0
Donald Parham	3	4	37	1	13%	3.9
Tyron Johnson	2	2	35	0	7%	3.2
Austin Ekeler	6	7	33	1	23%	3.1
Justin Jackson	1	2	32	0	7%	2.9
Gabe Nabers	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.0
Jalen Guyton	0	4	0	0	13%	-3.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Denzel Perryman	4	3	0
Nasir Adderley	5	0	0
Chris Harris	3	1	0
Michael Davis	3	1	2
Justin Jones	2	2	0
Kenneth Murray	1	2	0
Linval Joseph	1	2	0
Tevaughn Campbell	3	0	0
Jerry Tillery	2	1	0
Alohi Gilman	2	1	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Chad Henne	23/32	218	2	0	1	12.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Darwin Thompson	14	45	3.2	1	-4.1
Anthony Sherman	1	6	6.0	0	0.7
Chad Henne	2	0	0.0	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darwin Thompson	7	7	65	1	23%	5.9
Demarcus Robinson	6	7	58	0	23%	4.1
Byron Pringle	4	6	52	1	19%	5.1
Mecole Hardman	2	2	25	0	6%	2.4
Gehrig Dieter	1	2	10	0	6%	0.1
Deon Yelder	2	6	6	0	19%	-2.6
Darrel Williams	1	1	2	0	3%	0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Darius Harris	7	3	0.0	1
Armani Watts	6	2	0.0	0
Thakarius Keyes	7	1	0.0	0
Deandre Baker	4	1	1.0	1
Tim Ward	5	0	1.0	0
Damien Wilson	4	1	0.0	0
Juan Thornhill	4	1	0.0	0
Rashad Fenton	1	2	0.0	1
Mike Pennel	1	2	0.0	0
Michael Danna	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -7
Closing total: 43
LAC moneyline: -282
KC moneyline: +244

Chargers closed -7 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 43; the game landed 59 — over by 16.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: 35°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: LAC 7 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: Anthony Lynn vs Andy Reid

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.