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2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · Arrowhead Stadium
38
21
Los Angeles Chargers 38–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 12:06, KC +12% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(12:06) 1-T.Long punts 40 yards to KC 12, Center-45-C.Mazza. 17-M.Hardman MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-12-J.Reed at KC 17.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Chargers | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 67 | 50 |
| Total yards | 420 (edge) | 268 |
| Yards per play | 6.3 (edge) | 5.4 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.33 (edge) | 0.17 |
| Success rate | 54% (edge) | 50% |
| Dropback rate | 54% | 66% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.58 (edge) | 0.39 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.05 (edge) | -0.27 |
| Third downs | 3/6 | 6/9 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 7 (edge) | 3 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 27 (edge) | 17 |
| Sacks taken | 3 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs 0.17.
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
22/31, 302 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
20.8 expected points added · +6.8% completion over expected
Passing · KC
23/32, 218 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
12.9 expected points added · +3.7% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | KC 44 | 9 | 53 | 3:41 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | LAC | LAC 25 | 14 | 75 | 6:56 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | KC | KC 28 | 14 | 67 | 5:42 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | LAC | LAC 25 | 7 | 23 | 1:44 | Punt | |
| 5 | LAC | KC 17 | 5 | 17 | 2:06 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | KC | KC 26 | 5 | 3 | 1:34 | Punt | |
| 7 | LAC | LAC 22 | 15 | 77 | 6:23 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | KC | KC 1 | 2 | -1 | 0:11 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | LAC | LAC 41 | 7 | 25 | 1:27 | Touchdown | |
| 10 | KC | KC 39 | 2 | -1 | 0:16 | End of half | |
| 11 | LAC | LAC 25 | 9 | 22 | 3:52 | Punt | |
| 12 | KC | KC 8 | 13 | 63 | 7:04 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | LAC | LAC 30 | 7 | 70 | 3:17 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | KC | KC 26 | 11 | 74 | 3:58 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | LAC | LAC 23 | 8 | 77 | 3:40 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | KC | KC 20 | 5 | 10 | 2:45 | Punt | |
| 17 | LAC | LAC 42 | 9 | 34 | 5:24 | End of game |
0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 77 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a turnover on downs.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 22/31 | 302 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 20.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jackson | 9 | 72 | 8.0 | 0 | 4.6 |
| Kalen Ballage | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 1 | -0.5 |
| Austin Ekeler | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 | -1.1 |
| Justin Herbert | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 1 | -6.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 6 | 7 | 108 | 1 | 23% | 10.6 |
| Stephen Anderson | 3 | 3 | 52 | 0 | 10% | 5.0 |
| Donald Parham | 3 | 4 | 37 | 1 | 13% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Perryman | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nasir Adderley | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Harris | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Davis |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 23/32 | 218 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darwin Thompson | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -7 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 43; the game landed 59 — over by 16.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3.9 |
| Tyron Johnson | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 7% | 3.2 |
| Austin Ekeler | 6 | 7 | 33 | 1 | 23% | 3.1 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 7% | 2.9 |
| Gabe Nabers | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | -0.0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13% | -3.6 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Justin Jones | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Murray | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Linval Joseph | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tevaughn Campbell | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerry Tillery | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alohi Gilman | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -4.1 |
| Anthony Sherman | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Chad Henne | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darwin Thompson | 7 | 7 | 65 | 1 | 23% | 5.9 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 6 | 7 | 58 | 0 | 23% | 4.1 |
| Byron Pringle | 4 | 6 | 52 | 1 | 19% | 5.1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 6% | 2.4 |
| Gehrig Dieter | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | 0.1 |
| Deon Yelder | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 19% | -2.6 |
| Darrel Williams | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | 0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Harris | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Armani Watts | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thakarius Keyes | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deandre Baker | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tim Ward | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damien Wilson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Thornhill | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashad Fenton | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Pennel | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Danna | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
