2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · Empower Field at Mile High

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

Denver Broncos

LV -2.5 no coverO 50.5 ✓Raiders closed -2.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Las Vegas Raiders 32–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 6:43, DEN +39% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 6:43LV — DEN DEN ball · 3rd & 10LV 61%

(6:43) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep middle to 10-J.Jeudy for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 6:43DEN +39% win prob(6:43) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep middle to 10-J.Jeudy for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:24DEN +31% win prob(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Carr pass to 83-D.Waller is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Q4 · 0:09LV +28% win prob(:09) 8-B.McManus 63 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-M.Crosby), Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin, RECOVERED by LV-99-A.Key at LV 43.
Q4 · 0:27DEN +26% win prob(:27) 28-J.Jacobs left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Broncos
Offensive plays	64	76
Total yards	468 (edge)	448
Yards per play	7.3 (edge)	5.9
Expected points added / play	0.07 (edge)	-0.00
Success rate	48% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	66%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08	0.11 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	-0.17
Third downs	5/13	7/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	21
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	4	0 (edge)

Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.00.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

24/38, 371 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

8.0 expected points added · +3.6% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Drew LockQB

25/41, 339 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

4.9 expected points added · -3.2% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Melvin GordonRB

26 att, 93 yds, 1 TD

-5.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

15 att, 89 yds, 2 TD

4.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Jerry JeudyWR

5/7 for 140 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 9.1 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Darren WallerTE

9/10 for 117 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 25	5	4	1:27	Punt
2	DEN	DEN 28	11	63	4:28	Turnover on downs
3	LV	LV 25	10	75	4:31	Turnover on downs
4	DEN	DEN 25	11	73	4:17	Touchdown
5	LV	LV 25	3	10	0:23	Fumble
6	DEN	LV 39	4	2	0:55	Turnover on downs
7	LV	LV 46	6	49	2:44	Touchdown
8	DEN	DEN 25	11	32	4:56	Turnover on downs
9	LV	LV 38	5	30	1:50	Punt
10	DEN	DEN 4	6	17	2:50	Punt
11	LV	LV 44	7	61	1:13	Touchdown
12	DEN	DEN 25	6	19	0:26	Turnover on downs
13	DEN	DEN 25	10	30	3:39	Turnover on downs
14	LV	LV 25	5	-4	1:35	Punt
15	DEN	DEN 39	4	9	1:45	Punt
16	LV	LV 5	4	25	2:02	Interception
17	DEN	LV 37	6	30	2:52	Turnover on downs
18	LV	LV 25	3	14	0:48	Fumble
19	DEN	LV 34	6	36	2:25	Touchdown
20	LV	LV 25	3	16	0:47	Interception
21	DEN	LV 31	4	-8	2:28	Punt
22	LV	LV 10	10	90	4:12	Touchdown
23	DEN	DEN 8	5	92	0:58	Touchdown
24	LV	LV 25	10	19	3:43	Punt
25	DEN	DEN 10	6	28	0:59	Punt
26	LV	LV 23	8	79	1:23	Touchdown
27	DEN	DEN 25	4	25	0:22	Turnover on downs
28	LV	LV 43	1	0	0:02	End of game

0 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 92 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	24/38	371	2	2	3	8.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Jacobs	15	89	5.9	2	4.3
Devontae Booker	5	16	3.2	0	0.1
Derek Carr	2	1	0.5	0	2.1
Henry Ruggs	1	0	0.0	0	-5.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darren Waller	9	10	117	1	29%	2.5
Nelson Agholor	1	4	57	0	11%	-4.1
Bryan Edwards	2	2	51	1	6%	6.5
Theo Riddick	4	5	40	0	14%	0.9
Henry Ruggs	3	3	38	0	9%	2.4
Zay Jones	1	2	37	0	6%	1.4
Hunter Renfrow	3	7	24	0	20%	-0.9
Foster Moreau	1	1	7	0	3%	0.6
Josh Jacobs	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nicholas Morrow	8	3	1.0	0
Cory Littleton	6	3	0.0	0
Nevin Lawson	8	1	0.0	0
Raekwon McMillan	3	1	0.0	1
Maxx Crosby	3	1	1.0	0
Johnathan Abram	3	1	0.0	1
Lamarcus Joyner	3	1	0.0	1
Trayvon Mullen	3	0	0.0	0
Damon Arnette	3	0	0.0	0
Maliek Collins	1	1	0.0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Lock	25/41	339	2	0	2	4.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Melvin Gordon	26	93	3.6	1	-5.1
Royce Freeman	2	21	10.5	0	0.6
Drew Lock	2	7	3.5	0	0.3
Diontae Spencer	1	1	1.0	0	-0.5
LeVante Bellamy	1	0	0.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jerry Jeudy	5	7	140	1	18%	9.1
Noah Fant	4	6	48	0	15%	1.0
Tim Patrick	2	4	46	0	10%	1.6
Tyrie Cleveland	4	5	45	0	13%	2.4
DaeSean Hamilton	2	6	18	0	15%	-1.9
Melvin Gordon	4	6	17	0	15%	-1.8
Troy Fumagalli	2	3	15	1	8%	0.6
Diontae Spencer	1	2	9	0	5%	-0.2
Royce Freeman	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Josey Jewell	5	5	0.0	0	1
Alexander Johnson	4	3	0.0	0	1
Michael Ojemudia	5	2	0.0	0	0
Dre'Mont Jones	2	4	1.5	0	0
Parnell Motley	3	3	0.0	0	1
Jeremiah Attaochu	4	1	1.0	0	0
Alijah Holder	2	1	0.0	0	0
Will Parks	1	2	0.0	0	0
Justin Simmons	2	1	0.0	1	2
Kareem Jackson	1	1	0.0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LV -2.5
Closing total: 50.5
LV moneyline: -144
DEN moneyline: +130

Raiders closed -2.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 63 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 53°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: LV 8 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Jon Gruden vs Vic Fangio

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.