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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:57 AM ET · 16 to play
2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
RaidersLas Vegas32
BY 1final margin
BroncosDenver31
Las Vegas Raiders 32 at Denver Broncos 31. Final.
Raiders -2.5 no coverO 50.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 17
Las Vegas Raiders 32, Broncos 31 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 6:43, 3rd and 10, on Jerry Jeudy — 39.4 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:43 · 3rd and 10
Jerry Jeudy
Broncos
(6:43) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep middle to 10-J.Jeudy for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Raiders closed -2.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Las Vegas Raiders 32–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 6:43, Broncos +39.4% win probability on one snap.
39.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Darren WallerRaidersQ4 0:24(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Carr pass to 83-D.Waller is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
31.5pts
Brandon McManusRaidersQ4 0:09(:09) 8-B.McManus 63 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-M.Crosby), Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin, RECOVERED by LV-99-A.Key at LV 43.
28.0pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Raiders at 4 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Raiders won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Raiders won this one — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.17 expected points per carry.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Raiders won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Broncos at 7 chunk plays.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Raiders190 of 204 plays carry both curves
(6:43) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep middle to 10-J.Jeudy for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +39.4 for BroncosExpected points +8.40 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 5 points higher than the market did.play 167
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 6:43DEN +39% win prob(6:43) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep middle to 10-J.Jeudy for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:24DEN +31% win prob(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Carr pass to 83-D.Waller is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
4th · 0:09LV +28% win prob(:09) 8-B.McManus 63 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-M.Crosby), Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin, RECOVERED by LV-99-A.Key at LV 43.
4th · 0:27DEN +26% win prob(:27) 28-J.Jacobs left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 2:32LV +20% win prob(2:32) 11-H.Ruggs left end to LV 42 for 3 yards (23-M.Ojemudia). FUMBLES (23-M.Ojemudia), RECOVERED by DEN-42-P.Motley at LV 39. 42-P.Motley to LV 34 for 5 yards (61-R.Hudson). LV-11-H.Ruggs was injured during the play.
4th · 0:24DEN +19% win prob(:24) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short middle to 10-J.Jeudy to 50 for 25 yards (22-K.Nixon; 24-J.Abram). PENALTY on LV-36-D.Worley, Defensive Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Jacobs's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 0:27 left in the 4th put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:08Brandon McManus·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+30–3
1st4:38Daniel Carlson·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+33–3
4th0:27Josh Jacobs·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+832–31
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Raiderscategory by categoryBroncos
Raiders5–4Broncos
468Total yards448
7.3Yards per play5.9
48%Success rate38%
38%Third-down rate44%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays7
23First downs21
3Sacks taken2
4Turnovers0
The read
Raiders ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Raiders: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.00Broncos: −0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.08Raiders: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.11Broncos: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.04Raiders: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.17Broncos: −0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 64 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Broncos’s 76 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 5, Broncos 6.
NoteRaiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Broncos14.3%
right on their number · −0.6 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was LV's sack or hit rate, 6.7% against a season mean of 12.2% — and LV swings 6.3 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
76John SimpsonG · Every snap100%69 snaps
74Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%69 snaps
66Gabe JacksonG · Every snap100%69 snaps
70Sam YoungT · Every snap100%69 snaps
4Derek CarrQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
61Rodney HudsonC · Every snap100%69 snaps
83Darren WallerTE · Full-time87%60 snaps
13Hunter RenfrowWR · Heavy rotation74%51 snaps
15Nelson AgholorWR · Heavy rotation64%44 snaps
28Josh JacobsRB · Heavy rotation55%38 snaps
11Henry RuggsWR · Heavy rotation52%36 snaps
12Zay JonesWR · Rotational38%26 snaps
89Bryan EdwardsWR · Rotational28%19 snaps
23Devontae BookerRB · Rotational25%17 snaps
82Jason WittenTE · Situational23%16 snaps
87Foster MoreauTE · Situational20%14 snaps
35Theo RiddickRB · Situational20%14 snaps
45Alec IngoldFB · Situational13%9 snaps
85Derek CarrierTE · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Amik RobertsonCBIsaiah JohnsonCBMaurice HurstDTErik HarrisFSDenzelle GoodGNathan PetermanQBTrenton BrownT
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Lock pass+39% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:43) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep middle to 10-J.Jeudy for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 6:43 · Broncos · 3rd & 10 at DEN 8 · gained 92 · +8.40 EP · +39.1% win probability
188 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 204 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 204 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 92 yards from the DEN 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
204 of 204 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
204
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
39%
Yards
915
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.0665%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.0277%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.1253%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9-0.1822%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.2560%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
204 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
204 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 29
Raiders0Broncos3
Field goal12 plays, from the Broncos 28 to the Raiders 4
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Raiders3Broncos3
Field goal13 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Broncos 7
Raiders3Broncos9
Raiders3Broncos10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Raiders 1
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter58 plays
Fumble lost1 play
No good4 plays, from the Raiders 39 to the Raiders 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Raiders9Broncos10
Raiders10Broncos10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Raiders 46 to the Broncos 28
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Raiders 38
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 38 to the Broncos 42
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 4 to the Broncos 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Raiders16Broncos10
Raiders17Broncos10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Raiders 44 to the Broncos 21
No good8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 48
3rd quarter38 plays
Raiders17Broncos13
Field goal11 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Raiders 18
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 27
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 39 to the Broncos 48
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Raiders 5 to the Raiders 30
Raiders17Broncos16
Field goal6 plays, from the Raiders 37 to the Raiders 7
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 39
The period ended5 plays, from the Raiders 34 to the Raiders 12
4th quarter62 plays
Raiders17Broncos22
Raiders17Broncos24
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 41
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 31 to the Raiders 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Raiders23Broncos24
Raiders24Broncos24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Raiders 10 to the Broncos 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Raiders24Broncos30
Raiders24Broncos31
Touchdown6 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Raiders 25 to midfield
Punt10 plays, from the Broncos 10 to the Broncos 32
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsIn the boxTen defenders
Raiders30Broncos31
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 23 to the Broncos 1
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsIn the boxFive defenders
Raiders32Broncos31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
No good4 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Raiders 45
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
