2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · New Era Field

Miami Dolphins

Buffalo BillsWinner

MIA -3.5 upsetO 42.5 ✓Dolphins closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Buffalo Bills 56–26 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 12:14, BUF +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 12:14MIA — BUF BUF ball · 3rd & 4MIA 65%

(12:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 19-I.McKenzie for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 12:14BUF +12% win prob(12:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 19-I.McKenzie for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:07BUF +10% win prob(1:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 15-J.Brown for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 7:05BUF +10% win prob(7:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 19-I.McKenzie for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-92-Z.Sieler, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q3 · 8:28MIA +8% win prob(8:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 11-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Norman at MIA 16. 29-J.Norman for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Bills
Offensive plays	81	60
Total yards	454	459 (edge)
Yards per play	5.6	7.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.17	0.25 (edge)
Success rate	44%	52% (edge)
Dropback rate	78%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.20	0.41 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	-0.06 (edge)
Third downs	3/14	4/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	23
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	4	2 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

35/58, 361 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-13.7 expected points added · -6.9% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

18/25, 224 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

11.4 expected points added · +9.7% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Antonio WilliamsRB

12 att, 63 yds, 2 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Salvon AhmedRB

6 att, 29 yds, 1 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

DeVante ParkerWR

7/14 for 116 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · -6.1 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Gabe DavisWR

2/5 for 107 yds, 1 TD

14% of team targets · -0.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 25	8	12	4:18	Interception
2	MIA	BUF 41	6	10	2:35	Turnover on downs
3	BUF	BUF 24	7	19	2:17	Punt
4	MIA	MIA 20	4	14	1:38	Punt
5	BUF	BUF 39	4	6	1:32	Punt
6	MIA	MIA 1	4	7	2:12	Punt
7	BUF	50	8	50	3:19	Touchdown
8	MIA	MIA 25	7	29	2:26	Punt
9	BUF	BUF 12	9	73	2:47	Touchdown
10	MIA	MIA 25	5	4	1:34	Defensive touchdown
11	MIA	MIA 25	10	53	3:38	Turnover on downs
12	BUF	BUF 25	6	75	0:44	Touchdown
13	MIA	MIA 25	5	5	0:30	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 15	1	0	0:30	End of half
15	MIA	MIA 25	11	72	3:52	Touchdown
16	BUF	BUF 25	9	30	2:40	Punt
17	MIA	MIA 11	1	0	0:08	Defensive touchdown
18	MIA	MIA 25	11	27	3:04	Turnover on downs
19	BUF	BUF 48	5	20	1:21	Interception
20	MIA	MIA 19	8	61	2:26	Interception
21	BUF	BUF 21	6	79	2:45	Touchdown
22	MIA	MIA 25	2	0	0:12	Interception
23	BUF	MIA 25	4	25	1:37	Touchdown
24	MIA	MIA 25	11	75	3:15	Touchdown
25	BUF	BUF 12	5	2	0:36	Punt
26	MIA	MIA 34	4	22	1:37	Fumble
27	BUF	BUF 44	2	56	0:09	Touchdown
28	MIA	MIA 25	10	75	3:31	Touchdown
29	BUF	MIA 47	6	12	2:47	End of game

0 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 79 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	35/58	361	1	3	1	-13.7
Lynn Bowden	1/1	32	0	0	0	2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Salvon Ahmed	6	29	4.8	1	1.0
Tua Tagovailoa	6	28	4.7	0	3.8
Myles Gaskin	7	20	2.9	1	-0.6
Lynn Bowden	1	-7	-7.0	0	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeVante Parker	7	14	116	0	24%	-6.1
Myles Gaskin	4	5	57	0	8%	4.3
Mike Gesicki	5	10	47	0	17%	-4.5
Lynn Bowden	8	12	44	0	20%	-7.3
Isaiah Ford	3	7	37	0	12%	-0.2
Malcolm Perry	1	1	25	1	2%	3.3
Durham Smythe	3	3	23	0	5%	1.7
Adam Shaheen	1	3	22	0	5%	-0.5
Salvon Ahmed	3	3	19	0	5%	0.1
Mack Hollins	1	1	3	0	2%	-4.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Eric Rowe	4	2	0.0	0	0
Byron Jones	6	0	0.0	1	1
Kyle Van Noy	2	3	0.0	0	0
Jerome Baker	1	3	0.0	0	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	4	0	1.0	0	1
Xavien Howard	4	0	0.0	1	1
Christian Wilkins	1	2	0.0	0	0
Bobby McCain	3	0	0.0	0	0
Raekwon Davis	1	1	0.0	0	0
Calvin Munson	1	1	0.0	0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	18/25	224	3	1	1	11.4
Matt Barkley	6/13	164	1	1	0	5.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Antonio Williams	12	63	5.3	2	2.2
Zack Moss	3	8	2.7	0	-0.8
Devin Singletary	3	7	2.3	0	-1.3
Josh Allen	2	3	1.5	0	-0.2
Isaiah McKenzie	2	0	0.0	0	-1.4
Matt Barkley	3	-3	-1.0	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Gabe Davis	2	5	107	1	14%	-0.4
Stefon Diggs	7	8	76	0	22%	4.6
John Brown	4	4	72	1	11%	6.6
Isaiah McKenzie	6	9	65	2	24%	7.2
Dawson Knox	2	8	29	0	22%	-2.7
Antonio Williams	1	1	20	0	3%	1.5
Zack Moss	1	1	13	0	3%	1.3
Devin Singletary	1	1	6	0	3%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	5	4	1.0	0	0
Tyler Matakevich	4	2	0.0	0	2
Taron Johnson	3	3	0.0	0	1
Andre Smith	4	1	0.0	0	0
Matt Milano	4	0	0.0	0	0
Siran Neal	2	1	0.0	0	1
Josh Norman	3	0	0.0	1	2
Levi Wallace	3	0	0.0	0	0
Dane Jackson	3	0	0.0	0	2
A.J. Epenesa	3	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -3.5
Closing total: 42.5
MIA moneyline: -153
BUF moneyline: +138

Dolphins closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 82 — over by 39.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: 35°F, wind 1 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: MIA 8 days · BUF 6 days
Coaches: Brian Flores vs Sean McDermott

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.