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DYNATYZE
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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:45 AM ET · 1 to play · 15 final
Buffalo Bills 56, Dolphins 26 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 12:14, 3rd and 4, on Isaiah McKenzie — 11.5 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Dolphins closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Buffalo Bills 56–26 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 12:14, Bills +11.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:14 · 3rd and 4
Isaiah McKenzie
Bills
(12:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 19-I.McKenzie for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Isaiah McKenzieBillsQ2 7:05(7:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 19-I.McKenzie for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-92-Z.Sieler, Defensive Offside, declined.
9.7pts
John BrownBillsQ2 1:07(1:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 15-J.Brown for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.1pts
What separated them
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.25 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.17 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.41 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.20 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bills won this one — 2 giveaways, against Dolphins at 4 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills won this one — 4 of 9 on third down, against Dolphins at 3 of 14 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Dolphins187 of 196 plays carry both curves
(12:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 19-I.McKenzie for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +11.5 for BillsExpected points +2.62 for BillsThe model had Bills 21 points higher than the market did.play 44
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 12:14BUF +12% win prob(12:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 19-I.McKenzie for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:07BUF +10% win prob(1:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 15-J.Brown for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 7:05BUF +10% win prob(7:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 19-I.McKenzie for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-92-Z.Sieler, Defensive Offside, declined.
3rd · 8:28MIA +8% win prob(8:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 11-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Norman at MIA 16. 29-J.Norman for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:49BUF +8% win prob(2:49) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 54 yards to MIA 1, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.
1st · 10:48MIA +7% win prob(10:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 13-G.Davis (24-By.Jones). Miami challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 24-By.Jones at BUF 41. 24-By.Jones ran ob at BUF 41 for no gain.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Isaiah McKenzie's 7-yard touchdown catch with 12:14 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 11 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:12Jason Sanders·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap B.Ferguson+33–0
4th8:47Salvon Ahmed·16-yd TD run16-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+619–49
4th6:27Gabe Davis·56-yd TD catch56-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Barkleyfrom Matt Barkley+719–56
4th2:53Malcolm Perry·25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+726–56
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categoryBills
Dolphins2–6Bills
454Total yards459
5.6Yards per play7.7
44%Success rate52%
21%Third-down rate44%
2Red-zone touchdowns4
8Explosive plays7
26First downs23
1Sacks taken1
4Turnovers2
The read
Bills ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.17Dolphins: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.25Bills: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.20Dolphins: −0.20 expected points added per play
+0.41Bills: +0.41 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Dolphins: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.06Bills: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 81 snaps at a 78% dropback rate against Bills’s 60 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 5, Bills 6.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
−2.5σtheir own normal+2.5σ
One dot per reading, placed at how far it sits from that club's own normal in that club's own standard deviations. 7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIA's early-down pass rate, 73.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
64 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
BUF's sack or hit rate turned over: 19.2% in week 16 against 6.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
63 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 33 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.58× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Bills6.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.3 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.38× that swing) · 63 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.0%, 10.5 points below their season mean of 15.5% and 1.6 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass−11% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 13-G.Davis (24-By.Jones). Miami challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 24-By.Jones at BUF 41. 24-By.Jones ran ob at BUF 41 for no gain.
Q1 10:48 · Bills · 2nd & 21 at BUF 37 · gained nothing · -4.56 EP · −11.5% win probability
185 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 196 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 196 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 88 yards from the BUF 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
196 of 196 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
196
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
44%
Yards
909
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56-0.3179%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.3077%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28+0.1950%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.0867%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
196 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
196 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.4 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 48
Dolphins3Bills0
Field goal6 plays, from the Bills 41 to the Bills 22
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 24 to the Bills 43
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Dolphins 29
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 39 to the Bills 45
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 1 to the Dolphins 8
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter55 plays
Dolphins3Bills6
Dolphins3Bills7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Dolphins 45 to the Dolphins 7
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bills 46
Dolphins3Bills13
Dolphins3Bills14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 12 to the Dolphins 14
Dolphins3Bills20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 29
Dolphins3Bills21
Dolphins6Bills21
Field goal12 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bills 7
Dolphins6Bills27
Dolphins6Bills28
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Dolphins 32
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 30
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter50 plays
Dolphins12Bills28
Dolphins13Bills28
Touchdown12 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bills 1
Punt9 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Dolphins 42
Dolphins13Bills34
Touchdown1 play
Dolphins13Bills35
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bills 48
Intercepted5 plays, from the Bills 48 to the Dolphins 32
Intercepted8 plays, from the Dolphins 19 to the Bills 20
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter53 plays
Dolphins13Bills41
Dolphins13Bills42
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bills 28 to the Dolphins 18
Intercepted2 plays
Dolphins13Bills48
Dolphins13Bills49
Touchdown4 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 2
Dolphins19Bills49
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bills 16
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 12 to the Bills 14
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Dolphins 34 to the Bills 47
Dolphins19Bills55
Dolphins19Bills56
Touchdown2 plays
Dolphins25Bills56
Dolphins26Bills56
Touchdown10 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bills 25
The period ended8 plays, from the Dolphins 47 to the Dolphins 35
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Dolphins -3.5
Closing total
42.5
Dolphins moneyline
-153
Bills moneyline
+138
Dolphins closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 82 — over by 39.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 37°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the south-west; 0.03 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Dolphins 8 days · Bills 6 days
Coaches
Brian Flores vs Sean McDermott
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 2:01MIA +7% win prob(2:01) (Shotgun) 37-M.Gaskin left end to MIA 1 for -1 yards (30-D.Jackson).
2nd · 8:31BUF +7% win prob(8:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs to BUF 46 for 16 yards (28-B.McCain). PENALTY on MIA-94-C.Wilkins, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 46.
Dolphinscategory by categoryBills
Dolphins3
Bills0
