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2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · New Era Field
26
56
Buffalo Bills 56–26 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 12:14, BUF +12% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(12:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 19-I.McKenzie for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Dolphins | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 81 | 60 |
| Total yards | 454 | 459 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.6 | 7.7 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.17 | 0.25 (edge) |
| Success rate | 44% | 52% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 78% | 67% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.20 | 0.41 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.07 | -0.06 (edge) |
| Third downs | 3/14 | 4/9 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 8 (edge) | 7 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 26 (edge) | 23 |
| Sacks taken | 1 | 1 |
| Turnovers | 4 | 2 (edge) |
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
35/58, 361 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
-13.7 expected points added · -6.9% completion over expected
Passing · BUF
18/25, 224 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
11.4 expected points added · +9.7% completion over expected
Receiving · MIA
7/14 for 116 yds, 0 TD
24% of team targets · -6.1 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | BUF 25 | 8 | 12 | 4:18 | Interception | |
| 2 | MIA | BUF 41 | 6 | 10 | 2:35 | Turnover on downs | |
| 3 | BUF | BUF 24 | 7 | 19 | 2:17 | Punt | |
| 4 | MIA | MIA 20 | 4 | 14 | 1:38 | Punt | |
| 5 | BUF | BUF 39 | 4 | 6 | 1:32 | Punt | |
| 6 | MIA | MIA 1 | 4 | 7 | 2:12 | Punt | |
| 7 | BUF | 50 | 8 | 50 | 3:19 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | MIA | MIA 25 | 7 | 29 | 2:26 | Punt | |
| 9 | BUF | BUF 12 | 9 | 73 | 2:47 | Touchdown | |
| 10 | MIA | MIA 25 | 5 | 4 | 1:34 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 11 | MIA | MIA 25 | 10 | 53 | 3:38 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | BUF | BUF 25 | 6 | 75 | 0:44 | Touchdown | |
| 13 | MIA | MIA 25 | 5 | 5 | 0:30 | Punt | |
| 14 | BUF | BUF 15 | 1 | 0 | 0:30 | End of half | |
| 15 | MIA | MIA 25 | 11 | 72 | 3:52 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | BUF | BUF 25 | 9 | 30 | 2:40 | Punt | |
| 17 | MIA | MIA 11 | 1 | 0 | 0:08 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 18 | MIA | MIA 25 | 11 | 27 | 3:04 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | BUF | BUF 48 | 5 | 20 | 1:21 | Interception | |
| 20 | MIA | MIA 19 | 8 | 61 | 2:26 | Interception | |
| 21 | BUF | BUF 21 | 6 | 79 | 2:45 | Touchdown | |
| 22 | MIA | MIA 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:12 | Interception | |
| 23 | BUF | MIA 25 | 4 | 25 | 1:37 | Touchdown | |
| 24 | MIA | MIA 25 | 11 | 75 | 3:15 | Touchdown | |
| 25 | BUF | BUF 12 | 5 | 2 | 0:36 | Punt | |
| 26 | MIA | MIA 34 | 4 | 22 | 1:37 | Fumble | |
| 27 | BUF | BUF 44 | 2 | 56 | 0:09 | Touchdown | |
| 28 | MIA | MIA 25 | 10 | 75 | 3:31 | Touchdown | |
| 29 | BUF | MIA 47 | 6 | 12 | 2:47 | End of game |
0 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 79 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 35/58 | 361 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -13.7 |
| Lynn Bowden | 1/1 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salvon Ahmed | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 1 | 1.0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 | 3.8 |
| Myles Gaskin | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 1 | -0.6 |
| Lynn Bowden | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 | -1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 7 | 14 | 116 | 0 | 24% | -6.1 |
| Myles Gaskin | 4 | 5 | 57 | 0 | 8% | 4.3 |
| Mike Gesicki | 5 | 10 | 47 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Rowe | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Jones | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Baker |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 18/25 | 224 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11.4 |
| Matt Barkley | 6/13 | 164 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg |
|---|
Closing number vs result
Dolphins closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 82 — over by 39.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| -4.5 |
| Lynn Bowden | 8 | 12 | 44 | 0 | 20% | -7.3 |
| Isaiah Ford | 3 | 7 | 37 | 0 | 12% | -0.2 |
| Malcolm Perry | 1 | 1 | 25 | 1 | 2% | 3.3 |
| Durham Smythe | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 5% | 1.7 |
| Adam Shaheen | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 5% | -0.5 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 5% | 0.1 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2% | -4.7 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Xavien Howard | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Christian Wilkins | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby McCain | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Raekwon Davis | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calvin Munson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| TD |
|---|
| EPA |
|---|
| Antonio Williams | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 2 | 2.2 |
| Zack Moss | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Josh Allen | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.4 |
| Matt Barkley | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 5 | 107 | 1 | 14% | -0.4 |
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 8 | 76 | 0 | 22% | 4.6 |
| John Brown | 4 | 4 | 72 | 1 | 11% | 6.6 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 6 | 9 | 65 | 2 | 24% | 7.2 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 22% | -2.7 |
| Antonio Williams | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 3% | 1.5 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | 1.3 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | 0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tremaine Edmunds | 5 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Matakevich | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Taron Johnson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andre Smith | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Siran Neal | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Norman | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Levi Wallace | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| A.J. Epenesa | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
