2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · Ford Field

Minnesota VikingsWinner

Detroit Lions

MIN -3 no coverO 54 ✓DomeVikings closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Minnesota Vikings 37–35 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 12:51, DET +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 12:51MIN — DET MIN ball · 2nd & 8MIN 57%

(12:51) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson to DET 14 for 38 yards (51-J.Tavai) [95-R.Okwara]. PENALTY on DET-95-R.Okwara, Roughing the Passer, 7 yards, enforced at DET 14.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 12:51DET +14% win prob(12:51) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson to DET 14 for 38 yards (51-J.Tavai) [95-R.Okwara]. PENALTY on DET-95-R.Okwara, Roughing the Passer, 7 yards, enforced at DET 14.
Q2 · 2:58MIN +13% win prob(2:58) 5-D.Bailey 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.
Q1 · 0:43DET +13% win prob(:43) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 25-A.Mattison for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:11DET +11% win prob(:11) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 12-C.Beebe for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Lions
Offensive plays	71	56
Total yards	512 (edge)	417
Yards per play	7.2	7.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.34 (edge)	0.28
Success rate	55% (edge)	52%
Dropback rate	61%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.43 (edge)	0.26
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18	0.32 (edge)
Third downs	4/12	5/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9	9
First downs gained on snaps	28 (edge)	23
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs 0.28.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

28/40, 405 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

18.7 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

20/31, 293 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

8.1 expected points added · +0.4% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Alexander MattisonRB

21 att, 95 yds, 1 TD

3.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Adrian PetersonRB

7 att, 63 yds, 1 TD

5.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Marvin JonesWR

8/11 for 180 yds, 2 TD

35% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

9/12 for 133 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 25	6	19	1:51	Punt
2	DET	DET 27	4	3	1:32	Punt
3	MIN	MIN 25	4	9	2:14	Punt
4	MIN	DET 42	4	-6	1:02	Punt
5	DET	DET 10	8	90	3:36	Touchdown
6	MIN	MIN 30	10	68	4:11	Touchdown
7	DET	DET 25	7	80	2:15	Touchdown
8	MIN	MIN 21	10	79	4:28	Touchdown
9	DET	DET 25	6	39	1:38	Turnover on downs
10	MIN	MIN 31	9	46	4:20	Turnover on downs
11	DET	DET 36	7	7	1:58	Punt
12	MIN	MIN 21	7	73	0:51	Touchdown
13	DET	—	1	0	0:04	End of half
14	DET	MIN 33	4	33	0:51	Touchdown
15	MIN	MIN 31	8	62	2:34	Touchdown
16	DET	DET 20	4	5	1:54	Interception
17	MIN	DET 23	6	19	1:46	Turnover on downs
18	DET	DET 25	12	75	4:53	Touchdown
19	MIN	MIN 25	16	67	7:30	Touchdown
20	DET	DET 25	16	85	6:06	Touchdown
21	MIN	MIN 25	11	76	4:26	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 90 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	28/40	405	3	0	3	18.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alexander Mattison	21	95	4.5	1	3.6
Mike Boone	5	29	5.8	0	1.1
Kirk Cousins	5	1	0.2	1	-4.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	9	12	133	0	32%	8.6
Adam Thielen	4	5	57	0	13%	2.1
Alexander Mattison	3	3	50	1	8%	6.3
C.J. Ham	2	3	44	0	8%	2.3
Chad Beebe	2	3	44	1	8%	4.8
Tyler Conklin	3	6	40	0	16%	0.3
Irv Smith	2	3	30	0	8%	-0.3
Ameer Abdullah	3	3	7	1	8%	1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Harrison Smith	7	2	1	1
Anthony Harris	6	1	0	2
Eric Wilson	3	3	0	0
Troy Dye	1	3	0	1
Jeff Gladney	3	0	0	1
Todd Davis	2	1	0	1
Dylan Mabin	1	1	0	0
Dan Chisena	2	0	0	0
D.J. Wonnum	1	1	0	0
Harrison Hand	1	1	0	0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	20/31	293	3	1	1	8.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Adrian Peterson	7	63	9.0	1	5.2
D'Andre Swift	12	54	4.5	1	0.7
Matthew Stafford	2	9	4.5	0	1.1
Mohamed Sanu	1	3	3.0	0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marvin Jones	8	11	180	2	35%	7.9
Quintez Cephus	2	3	51	1	10%	4.0
T.J. Hockenson	3	3	25	0	10%	1.9
D'Andre Swift	3	3	16	0	10%	-0.9
Mohamed Sanu	2	6	13	0	19%	-2.0
Danny Amendola	1	2	6	0	6%	0.0
Jesse James	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.3
Kerryon Johnson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4
Hunter Bryant	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tracy Walker III	10	2	1.0	0
Jahlani Tavai	7	4	0.0	0
Duron Harmon	8	0	0.0	1
Christian Jones	3	2	0.0	0
Darryl Roberts	3	2	0.0	1
Reggie Ragland	2	2	0.0	1
Amani Oruwariye	3	0	0.0	0
Kevin Strong	2	1	1.0	0
Mike Ford	2	0	0.0	0
Marvin Jones	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -3
Closing total: 54
MIN moneyline: -161
DET moneyline: +145

Vikings closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 54; the game landed 72 — over by 18.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: MIN 9 days · DET 8 days
Coaches: Mike Zimmer vs Darrell Bevell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.