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Minnesota Vikings 37, Lions 35 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q3 12:51, 2nd and 8, on Justin Jefferson — 14.2 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 12:51 · 2nd and 8
Justin Jefferson
Vikings
(12:51) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson to DET 14 for 38 yards (51-J.Tavai) [95-R.Okwara]. PENALTY on DET-95-R.Okwara, Roughing the Passer, 7 yards, enforced at DET 14.
Dome
Vikings closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Minnesota Vikings 37–35 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 12:51, Vikings +14.2% win probability on one snap.
14.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Alexander MattisonVikingsQ1 0:43(:43) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 25-A.Mattison for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.4pts
Dan BaileyLionsQ2 2:58(2:58) 5-D.Bailey 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.
13.4pts
What separated them
Third down
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 10 on third down, against Vikings at 4 of 12 on third down.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — no giveaways, against Lions at 1 giveaway.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Vikings at 3 touchdowns on 8 trips.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Lions owned this one and still lost it — +0.32 expected points per carry, against Vikings at +0.18 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Vikings172 of 183 plays carry both curves
(12:51) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson to DET 14 for 38 yards (51-J.Tavai) [95-R.Okwara]. PENALTY on DET-95-R.Okwara, Roughing the Passer, 7 yards, enforced at DET 14.
Swing −14.2 for LionsExpected points −3.52 for LionsThe model had Lions 12 points higher than the market did.play 103
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 12:51DET +14% win prob(12:51) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson to DET 14 for 38 yards (51-J.Tavai) [95-R.Okwara]. PENALTY on DET-95-R.Okwara, Roughing the Passer, 7 yards, enforced at DET 14.
2nd · 2:58MIN +13% win prob(2:58) 5-D.Bailey 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.
1st · 0:43DET +13% win prob(:43) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 25-A.Mattison for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:11DET +11% win prob(:11) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 12-C.Beebe for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:28DET +10% win prob(2:28) 25-A.Mattison right end to DET 9 for 16 yards (26-D.Harmon).
3rd · 14:15DET +9% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 11-M.Jones for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:14
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Alexander Mattison's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 11:38 left in the 3rd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:53Marvin Jones·43-yd TD catch43-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford · kick no good, wide left+60–6
3rd14:15Marvin Jones·26-yd TD catch26-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+721–23
3rd11:38Alexander Mattison·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+728–23
3rd7:59Dan Bailey·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap A.DePaola+331–23
3rd3:08Adrian Peterson·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+631–29
4th10:36Kirk Cousins·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+637–29
4th4:30D'Andre Swift·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+637–35
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryLions
Vikings4–3Lions
512Total yards417
7.2Yards per play7.4
55%Success rate52%
33%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
9Explosive plays9
28First downs23
3Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Vikings ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.34Vikings: +0.34 expected points added per play
+0.28Lions: +0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.43Vikings: +0.43 expected points added per play
+0.26Lions: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.18Vikings: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.32Lions: +0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 71 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Lions’s 56 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 8, Lions 5.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs 0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIN's sack or hit rate, 2.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 12 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.5 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Lions11.6%
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 9.7%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.8%, 8.5 points below their season mean of 11.3% and 1.1 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
69Rashod HillT · Every snap100%80 snaps
72Ezra ClevelandG · Every snap100%80 snaps
78Dakota DozierG · Every snap100%80 snaps
75Brian O'NeillT · Every snap100%80 snaps
56Garrett BradburyC · Every snap100%80 snaps
8Kirk CousinsQB · Every snap100%80 snaps
19Adam ThielenWR · Full-time95%76 snaps
18Justin JeffersonWR · Full-time80%64 snaps
84Irv SmithTE · Heavy rotation79%63 snaps
83Tyler ConklinTE · Heavy rotation71%57 snaps
25Alexander MattisonRB · Heavy rotation63%50 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass+14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(12:51) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson to DET 14 for 38 yards (51-J.Tavai) [95-R.Okwara]. PENALTY on DET-95-R.Okwara, Roughing the Passer, 7 yards, enforced at DET 14.
Q3 12:51 · Vikings · 2nd & 8 at MIN 48 · gained 38 · +3.52 EP · +14.3% win probability
170 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 90 yards from the DET 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
+0.18
Success rate
46%
Yards
925
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.1265%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20+0.5960%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.0760%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18+0.3972%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.8233%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.9086%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.3214%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Vikings0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 39
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 27 to the Lions 31
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 34
Punt4 plays
Vikings0Lions6
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 10 to the Vikings 43
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Vikings6Lions6
Vikings7Lions6
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Lions 28
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter54 plays
Vikings7Lions12
Vikings7Lions13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Lions 28 to the Vikings 20
Vikings13Lions13
Vikings14Lions13
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Lions 4
Vikings14Lions16
Field goal6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Vikings 36
No good10 plays, from the Vikings 31 to the Lions 14
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 36 to the Lions 48
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Vikings20Lions16
Vikings21Lions16
Touchdown12 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Lions 40
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter45 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Vikings21Lions22
Vikings21Lions23
Touchdown4 plays, from the Vikings 33 to the Vikings 26
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Vikings27Lions23
Vikings28Lions23
Touchdown8 plays, from the Vikings 31 to the Lions 2
Intercepted5 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 26
Vikings31Lions23
Field goal6 plays, from the Lions 23 to the Lions 4
Vikings31Lions29
Touchdown12 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Vikings 2
The period ended10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Lions 24
4th quarter43 plays
Vikings37Lions29
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Vikings37Lions35
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Touchdown17 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Vikings 2
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
The period ended15 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Lions 9
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -3
Closing total
54
Vikings moneyline
-161
Lions moneyline
+145
Vikings closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 54; the game landed 72 — over by 18.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Vikings 9 days · Lions 8 days
Coaches
Mike Zimmer vs Darrell Bevell
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
DET +9% win prob
(:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 18-J.Jefferson. PENALTY on DET-98-E.Griffen, Defensive Offside, 6 yards, enforced at DET 46 - No Play.
2nd · 8:56DET +9% win prob(8:56) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 31-A.Abdullah for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Vikingscategory by categoryLions
Vikings0
Lions6
