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2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
SaintsNew Orleans33
BY 26final margin
PanthersCarolina7
New Orleans Saints 33 at Carolina Panthers 7. Final.
Saints -6 ✓U 47 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 17
New Orleans Saints 33, Panthers 7 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 10:49, 1st and 10, on Malcolm Jenkins — 11.9 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 10:49 · 1st and 10
Malcolm Jenkins
Saints
(10:49) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 27-M.Jenkins at NO -2. 27-M.Jenkins pushed ob at NO 46 for 48 yards (10-C.Samuel).
Saints closed -6 and covered, winning by 26.
New Orleans Saints 33–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 10:49, Saints +11.9% win probability on one snap.
11.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Drew BreesPanthersQ1 0:50(:50) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at NO 22 for -7 yards (33-T.Boston).
7.6pts
Ty MontgomerySaintsQ2 9:24(9:24) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 88-T.Montgomery left end pushed ob at CAR 11 for 36 yards (33-T.Boston).
8.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Saints won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 5 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.40 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.18 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.58 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Saints won this one — 6 of 14 on third down, against Panthers at 1 of 9 on third down.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Saints153 of 161 plays carry both curves
(10:49) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 27-M.Jenkins at NO -2. 27-M.Jenkins pushed ob at NO 46 for 48 yards (10-C.Samuel).
Swing −11.9 for PanthersExpected points −7.20 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 27 points higher than the market did.play 52
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 10:49NO +12% win prob(10:49) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 27-M.Jenkins at NO -2. 27-M.Jenkins pushed ob at NO 46 for 48 yards (10-C.Samuel).
2nd · 9:24CAR +8% win prob(9:24) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 88-T.Montgomery left end pushed ob at CAR 11 for 36 yards (33-T.Boston).
1st · 0:50NO +8% win prob(:50) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at NO 22 for -7 yards (33-T.Boston).
3rd · 9:41NO +7% win prob(9:41) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 30-G.Haley at NO -5. Touchback.
2nd · 13:49CAR +7% win prob(13:49) 35-R.Smith right guard to NO 41 for 4 yards (26-P.Williams).
1st · 1:44CAR +6% win prob(1:44) 35-R.Smith left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:52
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Emmanuel Sanders's 8-yard touchdown catch with 8:17 left in the 2nd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Saints ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Saints: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.40Panthers: −0.40 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.18Saints: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.58Panthers: −0.58 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Saints: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.03Panthers: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 63 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Panthers’s 60 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Saints 5, Panthers 5.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.40.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 17Against their seasonFourth Down
CAR's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 75.0% in week 16 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 17.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 30.6 points.
CAR's early-down pass rate turned over: 47.8% in week 16 against 68.1% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
CAR's pass rate over expected turned over: −5.4 pts in week 16 against +7.0 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −2.4 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Panthers11.4%
right on their number · −2.0 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 60.6 points above their season mean of 39.4% and 2.0 times their own 30.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 6 inactive
71Ryan RamczykT · Every snap100%64 snaps
75Andrus PeatG · Every snap100%64 snaps
78Erik McCoyC · Every snap100%64 snaps
62Nick EastonG · Full-time89%57 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Full-time88%56 snaps
9Drew BreesQB · Full-time81%52 snaps
12Marquez CallawayWR · Heavy rotation73%47 snaps
88Ty MontgomeryRB · Heavy rotation69%44 snaps
82Adam TrautmanTE · Heavy rotation64%41 snaps
17Emmanuel SandersWR · Heavy rotation64%41 snaps
45Garrett GriffinTE · Heavy rotation50%32 snaps
84Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational36%23 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Rotational33%21 snaps
87Jared CookTE · Rotational31%20 snaps
74James HurstG · Rotational27%17 snaps
83Juwan JohnsonWR · Situational23%15 snaps
80Austin CarrWR · Situational17%11 snaps
73Ethan GreenidgeT · Situational14%9 snaps
51Cesar RuizG · Situational11%7 snaps
14Tommylee LewisWR · Situational11%7 snaps
2Jameis WinstonQB · Situational11%7 snaps
37Tony JonesRB · Situational8%5 snaps
Inactive · 6
Will ClappCMalcolm RoachDTMarcus WilliamsFSDerrick KellyGJosh HillTEJake KumerowWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Bridgewater pass−18% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:49) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 27-M.Jenkins at NO -2. 27-M.Jenkins pushed ob at NO 46 for 48 yards (10-C.Samuel).
Q2 10:49 · Panthers · 1st & 10 at NO 18 · gained nothing · -7.20 EP · −18.0% win probability
151 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 64 yards from the CAR 36 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
43%
Yards
667
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.5481%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR22+0.0232%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.1546%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR10+0.1180%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.3750%
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR8-0.7888%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.4743%
Saints0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR5+0.36100%
Saints0 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.5420%
Saints0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR4——
Panthers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers0 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays
Saints6Panthers0
Saints7Panthers0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Panthers 42 to the Panthers 18
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 29
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 25
Saints7Panthers6
Saints7Panthers7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 36 to the Saints 1
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 29
2nd quarter42 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Panthers 46 to the Saints 18
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxEight defenders
Saints13Panthers7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Saints 46 to the Panthers 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Saints 21
Saints16Panthers7
Field goal11 plays, from the Saints 22 to the Panthers 15
3rd quarter43 plays
Saints19Panthers7
Field goal9 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Panthers 29
Intercepted6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Saints 19
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 46
Intercepted3 plays, from the Panthers 22 to the Panthers 28
Saints25Panthers7
Saints26Panthers7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Panthers 24 to the Panthers 3
Punt5 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Saints 43 to the Panthers 23
4th quarter34 plays
Saints32Panthers7
Saints33Panthers7
Touchdown2 plays
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Saints 20
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 19 to the Saints 36
Intercepted6 plays, from the Panthers 13 to the Saints 18
Punt4 plays
Intercepted1 play
The period ended5 plays, from the Saints 5 to the Saints 16
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
