2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium

New Orleans SaintsWinner

Carolina Panthers

NO -6 ✓U 47 ✓Saints closed -6 and covered, winning by 26.

New Orleans Saints 33–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 10:49, NO +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 10:49NO — CAR CAR ball · 1st & 10NO 63%

(10:49) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 27-M.Jenkins at NO -2. 27-M.Jenkins pushed ob at NO 46 for 48 yards (10-C.Samuel).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 10:49NO +12% win prob(10:49) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 27-M.Jenkins at NO -2. 27-M.Jenkins pushed ob at NO 46 for 48 yards (10-C.Samuel).
Q2 · 9:24CAR +8% win prob(9:24) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 88-T.Montgomery left end pushed ob at CAR 11 for 36 yards (33-T.Boston).
Q1 · 0:50NO +8% win prob(:50) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at NO 22 for -7 yards (33-T.Boston).
Q3 · 9:41NO +7% win prob(9:41) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 30-G.Haley at NO -5. Touchback.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Panthers
Offensive plays	63	60
Total yards	348 (edge)	320
Yards per play	5.5 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	0.16 (edge)	-0.40
Success rate	51% (edge)	43%
Dropback rate	56%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18 (edge)	-0.58
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	-0.03
Third downs	6/14 (edge)	1/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	5

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.40.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

22/32, 201 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

5.2 expected points added · +8.2% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Teddy BridgewaterQB

13/23, 176 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-9.6 expected points added · -3.9% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Ty MontgomeryWR

18 att, 105 yds, 0 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Taysom HillTE

7 att, 41 yds, 1 TD

4.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Curtis SamuelWR

7/11 for 118 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

5/11 for 101 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · -4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 25	5	-12	1:32	Punt
2	NO	CAR 42	9	47	4:24	Touchdown
3	CAR	CAR 25	5	4	1:38	Punt
4	NO	NO 20	4	2	1:36	Punt
5	CAR	CAR 36	8	58	4:10	Touchdown
6	NO	NO 25	5	-3	1:40	Punt
7	CAR	CAR 46	10	36	4:23	Interception
8	NO	NO 46	6	54	2:25	Touchdown
9	CAR	CAR 25	11	60	5:25	Turnover on downs
10	NO	NO 22	10	63	2:47	Turnover on downs
11	NO	NO 25	9	46	3:11	Turnover on downs
12	CAR	CAR 25	6	56	2:14	Interception
13	NO	NO 20	7	26	2:36	Punt
14	CAR	CAR 22	3	6	0:57	Interception
15	NO	CAR 24	4	24	1:06	Touchdown
16	CAR	CAR 18	5	0	0:34	Punt
17	NO	NO 43	9	57	4:27	Touchdown
18	CAR	CAR 25	10	56	4:06	Turnover on downs
19	NO	NO 19	6	17	2:43	Punt
20	CAR	CAR 13	6	56	3:57	Interception
21	NO	NO 31	4	4	1:46	Punt
22	CAR	CAR 36	1	0	0:10	Interception
23	NO	NO 5	4	11	2:13	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 63 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	22/32	201	3	0	2	5.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ty Montgomery	18	105	5.8	0	1.2
Taysom Hill	7	41	5.9	1	4.7
Tony Jones	3	13	4.3	0	0.4
Jameis Winston	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0
Tommylee Lewis	1	-2	-2.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Emmanuel Sanders	9	13	63	1	45%	1.8
Marquez Callaway	3	4	51	0	14%	3.9
Jared Cook	4	5	43	1	17%	3.7
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	1	1	17	0	3%	0.8
Austin Carr	1	1	11	1	3%	2.1
Taysom Hill	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.2
Adam Trautman	1	1	5	0	3%	0.1
Juwan Johnson	1	1	4	0	3%	0.2
Ty Montgomery	1	2	2	0	7%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Grant Haley	5	1	1	1
P.J. Williams	4	1	1	1
Janoris Jenkins	5	0	0	1
Demario Davis	2	3	0	1
Malcolm Jenkins	4	0	1	1
Malcom Brown	1	2	0	0
Shy Tuttle	2	1	0	0
Zack Baun	1	1	0	0
Alex Anzalone	2	0	0	0
Marcus Davenport	1	1	0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	13/23	176	0	2	1	-9.6
P.J. Walker	5/14	95	0	3	2	-14.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rodney Smith	10	40	4.0	1	4.8
Tommy Stevens	4	24	6.0	0	1.7
Teddy Bridgewater	3	7	2.3	0	-1.9
Curtis Samuel	3	3	1.0	0	-4.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Curtis Samuel	7	11	118	31%	1.0
D.J. Moore	5	11	101	31%	-4.3
Robbie Chosen	3	7	40	19%	-7.0
Pharoh Cooper	1	2	9	6%	0.0
Rodney Smith	1	1	4	3%	-0.3
Alex Armah	0	1	0	3%	-1.6
Ian Thomas	1	3	-1	8%	-7.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tre Boston	4	6	1.0	0
Shaq Thompson	3	7	0.0	0
Jermaine Carter	3	5	0.0	1
Jeremy Chinn	1	6	0.0	0
Donte Jackson	2	3	0.0	1
Rasul Douglas	3	1	0.0	0
Bravvion Roy	1	3	0.0	0
Stantley Thomas-Oliver	3	0	0.0	0
Zach Kerr	1	2	0.0	0
Curtis Samuel	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -6
Closing total: 47
NO moneyline: -250
CAR moneyline: +219

Saints closed -6 and covered, winning by 26.

Total closed 47; the game landed 40 — under by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 57°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: NO 9 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Matt Rhule

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.