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New York Jets 14 at New England Patriots 28. Final.
Patriots -3 ✓O 41 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 17
New England Patriots 28, Jets 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 0:22, 2nd and 5, on J.C. Jackson — 14.9 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 0:22 · 2nd and 5
J.C. Jackson
Patriots
(:22) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle intended for 19-B.Perriman INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson at NE 38. 27-J.Jackson pushed ob at NYJ 45 for 17 yards (69-C.McDermott). NE 27-J.Jackson 9th interception of season, 2nd in NFL (Howard (MIA), 10). NE 27-Jackson 11th takeaway of season, passes Haynes, Law, Marion & Samuel for 2nd in franchise history (Hall 13 in 1964).
Patriots closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.
New England Patriots 28–14. Biggest swing: Q3 0:22, Patriots +14.9% win probability on one snap.
14.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Breshad PerrimanJetsQ3 14:22(14:22) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 19-B.Perriman pushed ob at NE 12 for 53 yards (27-J.Jackson).
12.5pts
Devin AsiasiPatriotsQ4 14:04(14:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 86-D.Asiasi for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 3 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Patriots won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Jets at 3 of 10 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.37 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.01 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.25 expected points per snap, against Jets at +0.04 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Jets158 of 166 plays carry both curves
(:22) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle intended for 19-B.Perriman INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson at NE 38. 27-J.Jackson pushed ob at NYJ 45 for 17 yards (69-C.McDermott). NE 27-J.Jackson 9th interception of season, 2nd in NFL
Swing +14.9 for PatriotsExpected points +4.68 for PatriotsThe model had Patriots 3 points higher than the market did.play 120
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 0:22NYJ +15% win prob(:22) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle intended for 19-B.Perriman INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson at NE 38. 27-J.Jackson pushed ob at NYJ 45 for 17 yards (69-C.McDermott). NE 27-J.Jackson 9th interception of season, 2nd in NFL (Howard (MIA), 10). NE 27-Jackson 11th takeaway of season, passes Haynes, Law, Marion & Samuel for 2nd in franchise history (Hall 13 in 1964).
3rd · 14:22NE +12% win prob(14:22) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 19-B.Perriman pushed ob at NE 12 for 53 yards (27-J.Jackson).
4th · 14:04NE +12% win prob(14:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 86-D.Asiasi for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 2:31NE +10% win prob(2:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Meyers pass short right to 1-C.Newton for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Handoff to NE 26-S.Michel, backwards pass to NE 16-J.Meyers who passes to NE 1-C.Newton.
2nd · 1:45NE +8% win prob(1:45) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 89-C.Herndon for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NE-41-M.Bryant, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
3rd · 4:44
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Devin Asiasi's 26-yard touchdown catch with 14:04 left in the 4th put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Patriots ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Jets: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.25Patriots: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.01Jets: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.37Patriots: +0.37 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.10Jets: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.11Patriots: +0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 62 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Patriots’s 63 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Jets 3, Patriots 4.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's sack or hit rate turned over: 0.0% in week 16 against 16.2% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 11 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.5 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Patriots16.2%
inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -0.8 pts, 11.3 points above their season mean of -12.1 pts and 1.5 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
62Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%63 snaps
60Connor McGovernC · Every snap100%63 snaps
76George FantT · Every snap100%63 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
67Pat ElfleinG · Every snap100%63 snaps
19Breshad PerrimanWR · Full-time89%56 snaps
89Christopher HerndonTE · Heavy rotation75%47 snaps
82Jamison CrowderWR · Heavy rotation67%42 snaps
77Mekhi BectonT · Heavy rotation57%36 snaps
25Ty JohnsonRB · Heavy rotation54%34 snaps
17Vyncint SmithWR · Rotational46%29 snaps
69Conor McDermottT · Rotational43%27 snaps
84Ryan GriffinTE · Rotational41%26 snaps
36Josh AdamsRB · Rotational38%24 snaps
11Denzel MimsWR · Rotational29%18 snaps
85Trevon WescoTE · Situational21%13 snaps
16Jeff SmithWR · Situational19%12 snaps
10Braxton BerriosWR · Situational17%11 snaps
87Daniel BrownWR · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 6
James MurrayCBlessuan AustinCBTrevon ColeyDTJames MorganQBRoss TravisTELawrence CagerWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Jabari ZunigaDEJoe FlaccoQBCameron ClarkT
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
62Joe ThuneyT · Every snap100%65 snaps
71Michael OnwenuG · Every snap100%65 snaps
66James FerentzC · Every snap100%65 snaps
72Jermaine EluemunorT · Every snap100%65 snaps
16Jakobi MeyersWR · Every snap100%65 snaps
1Cam NewtonQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
15N'Keal HarryWR · Full-time89%58 snaps
75Justin HerronT · Heavy rotation63%41 snaps
26Sony MichelRB · Heavy rotation63%41 snaps
10Damiere ByrdWR · Heavy rotation62%40 snaps
86Devin AsiasiTE · Heavy rotation54%35 snaps
44Dalton KeeneTE · Rotational46%30 snaps
74Korey CunninghamT · Rotational37%24 snaps
28James WhiteRB · Rotational31%20 snaps
47Jakob JohnsonFB · Rotational29%19 snaps
80Gunner OlszewskiWR · Situational20%13 snaps
42J.J. TaylorRB · Situational6%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
David AndrewsCD'Angelo RossCBDee VirginCBShaquille MasonGAnfernee JenningsOLBTerez HallOLBBrian HoyerQB
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Newton pass+14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(14:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 86-D.Asiasi for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 14:04 · Patriots · 2nd & 2 at NYJ 26 · gained 26 · +2.67 EP · +14.3% win probability
157 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 89 yards from the NE 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
48%
Yards
754
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.2162%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.1471%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.0137%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR18+0.3533%
Jets0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Jets0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Jets0Patriots6
Jets0Patriots7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Patriots 16 to the Jets 2
Punt10 plays, from the Jets 21 to the Patriots 45
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 9 to the Patriots 31
The period ended9 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Patriots 46
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Jets 47
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 10 to the Jets 28
Punt12 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Jets 36
Jets6Patriots7
Jets7Patriots7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Patriots 21
Punt9 plays, from the Patriots 27 to the Jets 47
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Jets13Patriots7
Jets14Patriots7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Patriots 1
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 8 to the Patriots 35
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 29
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Jets14Patriots13
Jets14Patriots14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Patriots 42 to the Jets 19
Intercepted5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 40
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter44 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Jets14Patriots20
Jets14Patriots21
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jets 36 to the Jets 26
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Jets 31
Jets14Patriots27
Jets14Patriots28
Touchdown3 plays, from the Patriots 43 to the Jets 31
Intercepted17 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Patriots 15
Punt13 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Jets 46
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -3
Closing total
41
Jets moneyline
+145
Patriots moneyline
-161
Patriots closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 41; the game landed 42 — over by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 36°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the north-east; 0.03 in of precipitation; overcast.
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
Jets 7 days · Patriots 6 days
Coaches
Adam Gase vs Bill Belichick
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
NE +8% win prob
(4:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 80-G.Olszewski to NYJ 31 for 12 yards (38-L.Jackson).
1st · 14:06NE +8% win prob(14:06) 26-S.Michel right guard to NE 36 for 13 yards (41-M.Farley; 20-M.Maye).
3rd · 7:20NYJ +7% win prob(7:20) 7-B.Mann punts 41 yards to NE 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 42 for 12 yards (87-D.Brown, 41-M.Farley).
Jetscategory by categoryPatriots
Jets0
Patriots6
