2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · Gillette Stadium

New York Jets

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -3 ✓O 41 ✓Patriots closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.

New England Patriots 28–14. Biggest swing: Q3 0:22, NYJ +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 0:22NYJ — NE NYJ ball · 2nd & 5NYJ 51%

(:22) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle intended for 19-B.Perriman INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson at NE 38. 27-J.Jackson pushed ob at NYJ 45 for 17 yards (69-C.McDermott). NE 27-J.Jackson 9th interception of season, 2nd in NFL

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 0:22NYJ +15% win prob(:22) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle intended for 19-B.Perriman INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson at NE 38. 27-J.Jackson pushed ob at NYJ 45 for 17 yards (69-C.McDermott). NE 27-J.Jackson 9th interception of season, 2nd in NFL (Howard (MIA), 10). NE 27-Jackson 11th takeaway of season, passes Haynes, Law, Marion & Samuel for 2nd in franchise history (Hall 13 in 1964).
Q3 · 14:22NE +12% win prob(14:22) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 19-B.Perriman pushed ob at NE 12 for 53 yards (27-J.Jackson).
Q4 · 14:04NE +12% win prob(14:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 86-D.Asiasi for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 2:31NE +10% win prob(2:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Meyers pass short right to 1-C.Newton for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Handoff to NE 26-S.Michel, backwards pass to NE 16-J.Meyers who passes to NE 1-C.Newton.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Patriots
Offensive plays	62	63
Total yards	350	404 (edge)
Yards per play	5.6	6.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.04	0.25 (edge)
Success rate	58% (edge)	51%
Dropback rate	60%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01	0.37 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10	0.11 (edge)
Third downs	3/10	6/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

23/34, 266 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-0.4 expected points added · +2.9% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Cam NewtonQB

21/30, 242 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

10.6 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Cam NewtonQB

11 att, 79 yds, 0 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Sony MichelRB

16 att, 76 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Breshad PerrimanWR

3/6 for 84 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · -3.9 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Jakobi MeyersWR

6/7 for 68 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 16	9	99	3:37	Touchdown
2	NYJ	NYJ 21	10	34	4:21	Punt
3	NE	NE 9	6	21	2:40	Punt
4	NYJ	NYJ 23	7	32	4:34	Punt
5	NE	NE 35	6	18	2:18	Punt
6	NYJ	NYJ 10	5	10	2:25	Punt
7	NE	NE 25	11	35	4:18	Punt
8	NYJ	NYJ 20	11	90	4:07	Touchdown
9	NE	NE 27	8	26	1:02	Punt
10	NYJ	NYJ 9	1	8	0:38	End of half
11	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	75	3:20	Touchdown
12	NE	NE 8	8	27	2:33	Punt
13	NYJ	NYJ 20	4	9	2:00	Punt
14	NE	NE 42	11	58	4:45	Touchdown
15	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	15	2:13	Interception
16	NE	NYJ 45	5	45	1:13	Touchdown
17	NYJ	NYJ 27	5	4	1:45	Punt
18	NE	NE 43	3	42	0:29	Touchdown
19	NYJ	NYJ 20	17	65	7:53	Interception
20	NE	NE 20	9	33	3:33	Punt
21	NYJ	NYJ 7	1	8	0:16	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 99 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	23/34	266	1	2	3	-0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Adams	11	47	4.3	1	0.7
Ty Johnson	11	45	4.1	0	0.8
Braxton Berrios	2	16	8.0	0	0.5
Sam Darnold	1	3	3.0	0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Breshad Perriman	3	6	84	0	18%	-3.9
Christopher Herndon	7	9	63	1	27%	3.3
Jamison Crowder	4	4	31	0	12%	2.9
Ty Johnson	2	2	23	0	6%	2.2
Braxton Berrios	3	3	20	0	9%	-0.2
Daniel Brown	1	1	18	0	3%	1.9
Denzel Mims	1	2	15	0	6%	-0.7
Josh Adams	2	4	12	0	12%	1.9
Vyncint Smith	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Marcus Maye	6	3	0.0	0
Bryce Hager	4	2	0.5	0
Henry Anderson	4	2	0.0	0
Frankie Luvu	5	0	1.0	1
Neville Hewitt	5	0	0.0	0
Lamar Jackson	4	0	0.0	1
Bryce Hall	2	1	0.0	0
Matthias Farley	1	2	0.0	1
Tarell Basham	2	1	0.5	0
Nathan Shepherd	1	1	0.0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	21/30	242	3	0	3	10.6
Jakobi Meyers	1/1	19	1	0	0	2.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Cam Newton	11	79	7.2	2.0
Sony Michel	16	76	4.8	0.5
Jakobi Meyers	1	7	7.0	0.8
Damiere Byrd	1	4	4.0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jakobi Meyers	6	7	68	0	23%	5.9
Sony Michel	3	3	60	1	10%	6.2
Devin Asiasi	2	3	39	1	10%	2.6
James White	4	7	31	1	23%	2.1
Cam Newton	1	1	19	1	3%	2.1
N'Keal Harry	2	2	17	0	7%	0.4
Gunner Olszewski	2	2	14	0	7%	1.8
Damiere Byrd	1	3	7	0	10%	-1.9
Dalton Keene	1	2	6	0	7%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ja'Whaun Bentley	3	4	0.0	0	0
Joejuan Williams	2	4	0.0	0	1
Chase Winovich	4	1	2.0	0	1
Kyle Dugger	4	1	0.0	0	0
Devin McCourty	4	1	0.0	0	0
Adam Butler	3	1	1.0	0	0
J.C. Jackson	4	0	0.0	1	1
Jonathan Jones	2	1	0.0	1	1
Lawrence Guy	3	0	0.0	0	0
Deatrich Wise	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -3
Closing total: 41
NYJ moneyline: +145
NE moneyline: -161

Patriots closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 41; the game landed 42 — over by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 33°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: NYJ 7 days · NE 6 days
Coaches: Adam Gase vs Bill Belichick

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.