2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Pittsburgh Steelers

Cleveland BrownsWinner

CLE -10.5 no coverO 45 ✓Browns closed -10.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Cleveland Browns 24–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:23, PIT +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:23PIT — CLE PIT ballCLE 84%

(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 2-M.Rudolph pass to 11-C.Claypool is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:23PIT +9% win prob(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 2-M.Rudolph pass to 11-C.Claypool is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q3 · 11:26PIT +7% win prob(11:26) 7-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to PIT 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
Q4 · 1:26CLE +6% win prob(1:26) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 10:19CLE +6% win prob(10:19) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep left to 11-C.Claypool to CLE 36 for 41 yards (39-T.Mitchell).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Browns
Offensive plays	66	61
Total yards	394 (edge)	359
Yards per play	6.0 (edge)	5.9
Expected points added / play	0.11	0.17 (edge)
Success rate	38%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	71%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15	0.22 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01	0.11 (edge)
Third downs	8/17	6/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	6
First downs gained on snaps	19	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Steelers outgained Browns 394–359 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Mason RudolphQB

22/39, 315 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

11.1 expected points added · -1.2% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

17/27, 196 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.4 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

14 att, 108 yds, 1 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

6 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Chase ClaypoolWR

5/11 for 101 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 9.5 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Diontae JohnsonWR

3/4 for 96 yds, 0 TD

10% of team targets · 9.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	8	24	2:50	Punt
2	CLE	CLE 15	7	85	2:41	Touchdown
3	PIT	PIT 25	5	9	2:08	Punt
4	CLE	CLE 10	9	35	4:29	Punt
5	PIT	PIT 10	9	31	3:47	Punt
6	CLE	CLE 25	10	75	4:20	Turnover on downs
7	PIT	PIT 23	12	66	5:35	Turnover on downs
8	CLE	CLE 24	5	6	1:45	Punt
9	PIT	PIT 24	8	53	1:18	Turnover on downs
10	CLE	CLE 35	5	-6	1:07	Turnover on downs
11	CLE	CLE 25	8	19	3:40	Punt
12	PIT	PIT 20	7	52	2:51	Turnover on downs
13	CLE	CLE 24	10	76	4:41	Touchdown
14	PIT	PIT 28	6	14	2:17	Interception
15	CLE	PIT 20	5	20	1:34	Touchdown
16	PIT	PIT 25	15	75	4:50	Touchdown
17	CLE	CLE 27	11	38	6:30	Turnover on downs
18	PIT	PIT 35	8	70	2:14	Touchdown
19	CLE	50	5	11	1:23	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 85 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mason Rudolph	22/39	315	2	1	1	11.1
Joshua Dobbs	4/5	2	0	0	0	-2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Conner	9	37	4.1	-0.2
Joshua Dobbs	2	20	10.0	0.7
Anthony McFarland	5	17	3.4	0.2
Benny Snell	3	10	3.3	-0.5
Mason Rudolph	1	1	1.0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chase Claypool	5	11	101	1	26%	9.5
Diontae Johnson	3	4	96	0	10%	9.4
JuJu Smith-Schuster	6	8	65	1	19%	0.0
Vance McDonald	5	6	33	0	14%	-0.3
James Conner	5	8	25	0	19%	-3.8
Kevin Rader	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.4
James Washington	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.2
Ray-Ray McCloud	2	2	-3	0	5%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Alex Highsmith	5	3	1.0	0
Avery Williamson	5	2	0.0	0
Sean Davis	6	0	0.0	1
Marcus Allen	5	1	0.0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	4	1	0.0	1
Jayrone Elliott	3	1	1.0	0
Kevin Rader	2	1	0.0	0
Justin Layne	2	1	0.0	0
Stephon Tuitt	3	0	1.0	0
Steven Nelson	3	0	0.0	1

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	17/27	196	1	0	4	5.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	14	108	7.7	1	3.8
Baker Mayfield	6	44	7.3	0	0.6
Kareem Hunt	10	37	3.7	0	-2.0
Jarvis Landry	1	3	3.0	1	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rashard Higgins	2	3	55	0	12%	1.2
Jarvis Landry	5	6	51	0	23%	4.7
Austin Hooper	4	5	37	1	19%	3.1
KhaDarel Hodge	2	2	25	0	8%	4.0
David Njoku	2	5	13	0	19%	-1.5
Donovan Peoples-Jones	1	3	11	0	12%	0.7
Kareem Hunt	1	1	4	0	4%	-1.0
Nick Chubb	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jacob Phillips	5	2	0.0	0	0
Karl Joseph	3	4	0.0	0	0
Ronnie Harrison	5	1	0.0	0	1
Robert Jackson	5	0	0.0	0	1
Terrance Mitchell	5	0	0.0	0	1
M.J. Stewart	3	1	0.0	1	1
Larry Ogunjobi	1	1	0.0	0	0
Porter Gustin	1	1	0.0	0	0
Sione Takitaki	2	0	0.0	0	0
Olivier Vernon	2	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -10.5
Closing total: 45
PIT moneyline: +376
CLE moneyline: -460

Browns closed -10.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45; the game landed 46 — over by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 38°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: PIT 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Kevin Stefanski

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.