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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:47 AM ET · 16 to play
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Steelers161 of 172 plays carry both curves
Q4 · 1:23Steelers 22 — Browns 24PIT ballCLE 84%
Steelers 16%Browns 84%
(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 2-M.Rudolph pass to 11-C.Claypool is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Swing +9.2 for BrownsExpected points +0.95 for BrownsThe model had Steelers 4 points higher than the market did.play 164
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:23PIT +9% win prob(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 2-M.Rudolph pass to 11-C.Claypool is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
3rd · 11:26PIT +7% win prob(11:26) 7-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to PIT 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
4th · 1:26CLE +6% win prob(1:26) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 10:19CLE +6% win prob(10:19) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep left to 11-C.Claypool to CLE 36 for 41 yards (39-T.Mitchell).
4th · 3:02CLE +6% win prob(3:02) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep left to 18-Di.Johnson to CLE 10 for 47 yards (42-K.Joseph).
1st · 12:17CLE +5% win prob(12:17) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to CLE 15, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.
1st · 9:38
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nick Chubb's 47-yard rushing touchdown with 9:38 left in the 1st put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:38Nick Chubb·47-yd TD run47-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+60–6
1st9:29Browns·1 pt1 pointthe league feed did not file the play that scored itthe league feed did not file the play that scored it+10–7
2nd9:48Cody Parkey·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+30–10
2nd4:14Matthew Wright·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+33–10
2nd1:12Matthew Wright·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+36–10
3rd8:34Matthew Wright·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+39–10
Browns ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Steelers: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.17Browns: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Steelers: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.22Browns: +0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Steelers: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.11Browns: +0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 66 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Browns’s 61 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 3, Browns 4.
NoteSteelers outgained Browns 394-359 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's pass rate over expected turned over: +22.7 pts in week 16 against −0.9 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 33 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.7 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.52× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Browns10.6%
right on their number · −0.6 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePIT's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 11.4%, 11.7 points below their season mean of 23.1% and 1.5 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Rudolph pass+14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(10:19) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep left to 11-C.Claypool to CLE 36 for 41 yards (39-T.Mitchell).
Q3 10:19 · Steelers · 3rd & 7 at PIT 23 · gained 41 · +4.21 EP · +14.2% win probability
159 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 85 yards from the CLE 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
42%
Yards
752
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR62+0.1473%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24+0.4150%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.3350%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR15-0.3347%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 49
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Steelers0Browns6
Touchdown6 plays, from the Browns 15 to the Steelers 47
Steelers0Browns7
Punt3 plays, from the Steelers 28 to the Steelers 34
Punt10 plays, from the Browns 10 to the Browns 41
The period ended7 plays, from the Steelers 10 to the Steelers 37
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Steelers 40 to the Steelers 41
Steelers0Browns10
Field goal11 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Steelers 4
Steelers3Browns10
Field goal12 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Browns 11
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Browns 30
Steelers6Browns10
Field goal12 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Browns 27
Turnover on downs7 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Steelers9Browns10
Field goal7 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Browns 28
Steelers9Browns16
Steelers9Browns17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Steelers 2
Intercepted6 plays, from the Steelers 28 to the Steelers 42
The period ended4 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 17
4th quarter45 plays
Steelers9Browns23
Steelers9Browns24
Touchdown2 plays
Steelers15Browns24
Steelers16Browns24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Browns 28
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Browns 27 to the Steelers 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Steelers22Browns24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Touchdown9 plays, from the Steelers 35 to the Browns 2
The period ended8 plays, from midfield to the Steelers 39
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
