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2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · State Farm Stadium
Final
SeahawksSeattle26
BY 3final margin
49ersSan Francisco23
Seattle Seahawks 26 at San Francisco 49ers 23. Final.
Seahawks -7 no coverO 45 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 17
Seattle Seahawks 26, 49ers 23 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:26, 4th and 4, on Tyler Lockett — 27.7 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:26 · 4th and 4
Tyler Lockett
Seahawks
(2:26) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 16-T.Lockett for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-F.Warner].
Dome
Seahawks closed -7, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Seattle Seahawks 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:26, Seahawks +27.7% win probability on one snap.
27.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kendrick Bourne49ersQ3 3:52(3:52) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short right to 84-K.Bourne to SEA 44 for 27 yards (28-U.Amadi).
12.5pts
C.J. BeathardSeahawksQ4 2:16(2:16) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard sacked at SF 16 for -9 yards (95-B.Mayowa). FUMBLES (95-B.Mayowa), RECOVERED by SEA-94-R.Green at SF 17.
19.4pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.14 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.24 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 1 giveaway.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against 49ers at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 15 on third down, against Seahawks at 4 of 12 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Seahawks167 of 175 plays carry both curves
(2:26) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 16-T.Lockett for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-F.Warner].
Swing −27.7 for 49ersExpected points −4.21 for 49ersThe model had 49ers 2 points higher than the market did.play 148
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:26SF +28% win prob(2:26) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 16-T.Lockett for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-F.Warner].
4th · 2:16SEA +19% win prob(2:16) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard sacked at SF 16 for -9 yards (95-B.Mayowa). FUMBLES (95-B.Mayowa), RECOVERED by SEA-94-R.Green at SF 17.
3rd · 3:52SF +13% win prob(3:52) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short right to 84-K.Bourne to SEA 44 for 27 yards (28-U.Amadi).
4th · 4:36SF +11% win prob(4:36) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles right end ran ob at SF 20 for 16 yards (54-F.Warner).
4th · 2:28SEA +10% win prob(2:28) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Metcalf (51-A.Al-Shaair).
3rd · 1:32SF +10% win prob(1:32) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short left to 84-K.Bourne ran ob at SEA 26 for 11 yards.
3rd · 8:30
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Lockett's 4-yard touchdown catch with 2:26 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st2:13Jason Myers·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+33–0
2nd9:31Jason Myers·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+36–0
2nd0:29Tristan Vizcaino·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap C.Holba+36–3
3rd9:36Tristan Vizcaino·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap C.Holba+36–6
3rd6:23Tristan Vizcaino·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap C.Holba+36–9
Seahawks ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Seahawks: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.0249ers: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.05Seahawks: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.1749ers: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Seahawks: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.2449ers: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 64 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against 49ers’s 64 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 5, 49ers 4.
Note49ers outgained Seahawks 328-281 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.84× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
49ers9.5%
right on their number · −2.6 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was SEA's sack or hit rate, 19.5% against a season mean of 14.9% — and SEA swings 5.5 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Beathard sacked−23% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:16) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard sacked at SF 16 for -9 yards (95-B.Mayowa). FUMBLES (95-B.Mayowa), RECOVERED by SEA-94-R.Green at SF 17.
Q4 2:16 · 49ers · 2nd & 10 at SF 25 · lost 8 · -5.25 EP · −23.1% win probability
165 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 85 yards from the SEA 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
44%
Yards
608
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.0459%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28+0.0764%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.0988%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR23-0.2130%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR11+0.0873%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 35
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 34
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 17 to the Seahawks 26
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 11 to the 49ers 28
Seahawks349ers0
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the 49ers 17
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 28
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter35 plays
Seahawks649ers0
Field goal11 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the 49ers 12
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 32
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Seahawks 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Seahawks649ers3
Field goal11 plays, from the 49ers 21 to the Seahawks 18
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Seahawks649ers6
Field goal11 plays, from the 49ers 18 to the Seahawks 29
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 27
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Seahawks649ers9
Field goal5 plays, from the Seahawks 49 to the Seahawks 4
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 26
The period ended10 plays, from the 49ers 27 to the Seahawks 25
4th quarter63 plays
Seahawks649ers15
Seahawks649ers16
Touchdown3 plays, from the Seahawks 12 to the Seahawks 7
Seahawks1249ers16
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the 49ers 6
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 41
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Seahawks1849ers16
Seahawks1949ers16
Touchdown16 plays, from the Seahawks 15 to the 49ers 4
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost3 plays
Seahawks2549ers16
Seahawks2649ers16
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 17 to the 49ers 3
Seahawks2649ers22
Seahawks2649ers23
Touchdown13 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Seahawks 3
The period ended4 plays, from the 49ers 44 to the 49ers 39
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
