2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · State Farm Stadium

Seattle SeahawksWinner

San Francisco 49ers

SEA -7 no coverO 45 ✓DomeSeahawks closed -7, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Seattle Seahawks 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:26, SF +28% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:26SEA — SF SEA ball · 4th & 4SF 55%

(2:26) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 16-T.Lockett for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-F.Warner].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:26SF +28% win prob(2:26) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 16-T.Lockett for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-F.Warner].
Q4 · 2:16SEA +19% win prob(2:16) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard sacked at SF 16 for -9 yards (95-B.Mayowa). FUMBLES (95-B.Mayowa), RECOVERED by SEA-94-R.Green at SF 17.
Q3 · 3:52SF +13% win prob(3:52) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short right to 84-K.Bourne to SEA 44 for 27 yards (28-U.Amadi).
Q4 · 4:36SF +11% win prob(4:36) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles right end ran ob at SF 20 for 16 yards (54-F.Warner).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	49ers
Offensive plays	64	64
Total yards	281	328 (edge)
Yards per play	4.4	5.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.09 (edge)	0.02
Success rate	48% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	66%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05	0.17 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	-0.24
Third downs	4/12	6/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

49ers outgained Seahawks 328–281 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

C.J. BeathardQB

25/37, 273 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

6.7 expected points added · +2.9% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

20/36, 181 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

1.3 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Jeffery WilsonRB

20 att, 76 yds, 1 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Chris CarsonRB

11 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Tyler LockettWR

12/14 for 90 yds, 2 TD

44% of team targets · 11.8 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Kendrick BourneWR

5/6 for 76 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 9.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 25	7	8	2:04	Punt
2	SF	SF 25	4	9	2:05	Punt
3	SEA	SEA 17	4	9	1:19	Punt
4	SF	SF 11	7	17	2:56	Punt
5	SEA	SEA 32	10	51	4:27	Turnover on downs
6	SF	SF 25	5	3	1:39	Punt
7	SEA	SEA 30	12	58	6:03	Turnover on downs
8	SF	SF 25	5	-5	1:21	Punt
9	SEA	SEA 32	4	-9	1:30	Punt
10	SF	SF 21	10	71	6:11	Turnover on downs
11	SEA	SEA 25	2	-11	0:25	End of half
12	SF	SF 18	11	38	5:29	Turnover on downs
13	SEA	SEA 25	5	2	1:01	Punt
14	SF	SEA 49	5	34	2:11	Turnover on downs
15	SEA	SEA 25	5	1	1:13	Punt
16	SF	SF 27	12	73	5:44	Touchdown
17	SEA	SEA 25	10	60	3:28	Touchdown
18	SF	SF 20	8	21	3:08	Punt
19	SEA	SEA 15	15	85	5:26	Touchdown
20	SF	SF 25	3	-8	0:10	Fumble
21	SEA	SF 17	4	22	0:21	Touchdown
22	SF	SF 25	10	75	1:26	Touchdown
23	SEA	SF 44	3	5	0:23	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 85 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	20/36	181	2	0	2	1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chris Carson	11	44	4.0	0	0.9
Russell Wilson	5	29	5.8	0	-0.7
Alex Collins	5	29	5.8	1	3.2
Rashaad Penny	6	19	3.2	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Lockett	12	14	90	2	44%	11.8
Chris Carson	2	2	39	0	6%	2.6
DK Metcalf	3	9	21	0	28%	-4.7
Will Dissly	1	2	20	0	6%	0.6
Jacob Hollister	1	3	6	0	9%	-2.6
David Moore	1	1	5	0	3%	0.1
Freddie Swain	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordyn Brooks	5	4	0.0	0
Shaquill Griffin	6	0	0.0	0
Bobby Wagner	3	3	0.0	0
Quandre Diggs	5	1	0.0	0
D.J. Reed	2	3	0.0	1
Ryan Neal	3	1	0.0	0
Ugochukwu Amadi	4	0	0.0	0
Rasheem Green	2	1	1.0	0
Cody Barton	3	0	0.0	0
K.J. Wright	3	0	0.0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Beathard	25/37	273	1	0	3	6.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jeffery Wilson	20	76	3.8	1	-2.2
C.J. Beathard	3	10	3.3	0	-1.3
Kyle Juszczyk	1	0	0.0	0	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kendrick Bourne	5	6	76	0	17%	9.8
George Kittle	7	9	68	0	26%	1.1
Richie James	3	5	66	0	14%	3.4
Ross Dwelley	2	2	21	0	6%	2.0
River Cracraft	2	2	17	0	6%	2.1
Jeffery Wilson	3	7	12	1	20%	0.9
Jerick McKinnon	1	1	6	0	3%	0.1
Kyle Juszczyk	1	2	4	0	6%	-0.8
Charlie Woerner	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jason Verrett	8	1	0.0	0
Fred Warner	7	2	1.0	0
Azeez Al-Shaair	7	2	0.0	1
D.J. Jones	2	2	0.0	0
Jimmie Ward	3	1	0.0	0
Dontae Johnson	2	2	1.0	0
Tarvarius Moore	4	0	0.0	0
Kentavius Street	1	2	0.0	0
Arik Armstead	1	1	0.0	1
Matt Cole	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -7
Closing total: 45
SEA moneyline: -310
SF moneyline: +266

Seahawks closed -7, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45; the game landed 49 — over by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: SEA 7 days · SF 8 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Kyle Shanahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.