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Tennessee Titans 41, Texans 38 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:42, 3rd and 13, on Keke Coutee — 23.2 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:42 · 3rd and 13
Keke Coutee
Texans
(:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 16-K.Coutee ran ob at TEN 33 for 29 yards.
Dome
Titans closed -7, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Tennessee Titans 41–38 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:42, Texans +23.2% win probability on one snap.
23.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Pharaoh BrownTexansQ4 10:20(10:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 85-P.Brown for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.4pts
A.J. BrownTitansQ4 0:18(:18) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 11-A.Brown to HOU 23 for 52 yards (35-K.Crossen).
20.8pts
What separated them
Third down
Titans won this one — 7 of 10 on third down, against Texans at 5 of 12 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Titans won this one — 4 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Texans at 3 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 11 chunk plays, against Titans at 10 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Titans173 of 184 plays carry both curves
(:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 16-K.Coutee ran ob at TEN 33 for 29 yards.
Swing +23.2 for TexansExpected points +2.77 for TexansThe model had Texans 6 points higher than the market did.play 172
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:42HOU +23% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 16-K.Coutee ran ob at TEN 33 for 29 yards.
4th · 0:18HOU +21% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 11-A.Brown to HOU 23 for 52 yards (35-K.Crossen).
4th · 10:20HOU +15% win prob(10:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 85-P.Brown for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:00HOU +14% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill left end to HOU 1 for 3 yards (32-L.Johnson; 50-T.Adams).
4th · 0:22HOU +14% win prob(:22) 7-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
4th · 1:47HOU +13% win prob(1:47) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:34HOU +12% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Sam Sloman's 37-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st6:46Sam Sloman·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap M.Overton+33–0
1st1:45Ka'imi Fairbairn·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.Weeks+33–3
4th0:22Ka'imi Fairbairn·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.Weeks+338–38
4th0:04Sam Sloman·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap M.OvertonLead never changed again+341–38
15 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryTexans
Titans6–2Texans
493Total yards457
7.1Yards per play7.4
52%Success rate50%
70%Third-down rate42%
4Red-zone touchdowns3
10Explosive plays11
27First downs24
2Sacks taken4
1Turnovers1
The read
Titans ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.29Titans: +0.29 expected points added per play
+0.25Texans: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.35Titans: +0.35 expected points added per play
+0.26Texans: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.24Titans: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.21Texans: +0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 69 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Texans’s 62 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Titans 6, Texans 7.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
HOU's sack or hit rate, 25.8%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 2.7 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 16.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Texans25.8%
leaned — got home · +11.9 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+1.76× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.8%, 11.9 points above their season mean of 13.9% and 1.8 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
72David QuessenberryG · Every snap100%71 snaps
64Nate DavisG · Every snap100%71 snaps
71Dennis KellyT · Every snap100%71 snaps
17Ryan TannehillQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
60Ben JonesC · Every snap100%71 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Full-time90%64 snaps
84Corey DavisWR · Full-time83%59 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Full-time82%58 snaps
87Geoff SwaimTE · Heavy rotation65%46 snaps
81Jonnu SmithTE · Heavy rotation58%41 snaps
76Rodger SaffoldG · Heavy rotation54%38 snaps
62Aaron BrewerC · Rotational46%33 snaps
85MyCole PruittTE · Rotational42%30 snaps
13Cameron BatsonWR · Situational24%17 snaps
28Jeremy McNicholsRB · Situational15%11 snaps
86Anthony FirkserTE · Situational14%10 snaps
15Nick WestbrookWR · Situational10%7 snaps
41Khari BlasingameFB · Situational10%7 snaps
14Kalif RaymondWR · Situational4%3 snaps
32Darrynton EvansRB · Situational1%1 snap
78Marshall NewhouseT · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Chris JacksonCBKareem OrrCBDerick RobersonOLBSenorise PerryRBD'Onta ForemanRB
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Watson pass+25% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 16-K.Coutee ran ob at TEN 33 for 29 yards.
Q4 0:42 · Texans · 3rd & 13 at HOU 38 · gained 29 · +2.77 EP · +25.1% win probability
171 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
15 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 77 yards from the TEN 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
+0.21
Success rate
48%
Yards
949
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.0176%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR37+0.3735%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.5867%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19+0.0058%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.3850%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.5920%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Titans 47
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 10 to the Titans 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Texans 16 to the Texans 20
Titans3Texans0
Field goal4 plays, from the Texans 31 to the Texans 29
Titans3Texans3
Field goal13 plays, from the Texans 22 to the Titans 6
The period ended6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 40
2nd quarter43 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Titans9Texans3
Titans10Texans3
Touchdown2 plays
Titans10Texans6
Field goal12 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Titans 18
Titans16Texans6
Titans17Texans6
Touchdown9 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Texans 1
Titans17Texans9
Field goal17 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Titans 10
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter45 plays
Titans23Texans9
Titans24Texans9
Touchdown12 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Texans 6
Titans24Texans15
Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Titans 38
Titans30Texans15
Titans31Texans15
Touchdown10 plays, from the Titans 23 to the Texans 5
Titans31Texans21
Touchdown5 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Titans 20
Fumble lost2 plays
Titans31Texans27
Titans31Texans28
Touchdown4 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Titans 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
The period ended5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 26
4th quarter54 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSix
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Texans 49 to the Texans 36
Titans31Texans34
Titans31Texans35
Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 48 to the Titans 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Titans37Texans35
Titans38Texans35
Touchdown23 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Texans 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Titans38Texans38
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 9 to the Titans 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Titans41Texans38
Field goal7 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Texans 19
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
