2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · NRG Stadium

Tennessee TitansWinner

Houston Texans

TEN -7 no coverO 55.5 ✓DomeTitans closed -7, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Tennessee Titans 41–38 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:42, HOU +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:42TEN — HOU HOU ball · 3rd & 13TEN 85%

(:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 16-K.Coutee ran ob at TEN 33 for 29 yards.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:42HOU +23% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 16-K.Coutee ran ob at TEN 33 for 29 yards.
Q4 · 0:18HOU +21% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 11-A.Brown to HOU 23 for 52 yards (35-K.Crossen).
Q4 · 10:20HOU +15% win prob(10:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 85-P.Brown for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:00HOU +14% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill left end to HOU 1 for 3 yards (32-L.Johnson; 50-T.Adams).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Texans
Offensive plays	69	62
Total yards	493 (edge)	457
Yards per play	7.1	7.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.29 (edge)	0.25
Success rate	52% (edge)	50%
Dropback rate	45%	77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.35 (edge)	0.26
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.24 (edge)	0.21
Third downs	7/10 (edge)	5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10	11 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	27 (edge)	24
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1	1

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.25.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

28/39, 365 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

8.9 expected points added · +8.0% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

18/27, 216 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.9 expected points added · +6.0% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

34 att, 250 yds, 2 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

David JohnsonRB

14 att, 84 yds, 1 TD

3.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Brandin CooksWR

11/16 for 166 yds, 2 TD

40% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

A.J. BrownWR

10/11 for 151 yds, 1 TD

41% of team targets · 15.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 25	6	28	2:27	Punt
2	TEN	TEN 10	7	35	3:32	Punt
3	HOU	HOU 16	3	4	1:25	Interception
4	TEN	HOU 31	4	2	0:55	Turnover on downs
5	HOU	HOU 22	12	67	4:59	Turnover on downs
6	TEN	TEN 25	6	70	1:51	Touchdown
7	HOU	HOU 24	12	51	6:36	Turnover on downs
8	TEN	TEN 25	9	75	3:46	Touchdown
9	HOU	HOU 40	13	55	4:19	Turnover on downs
10	TEN	TEN 25	2	0	0:10	End of half
11	TEN	TEN 25	12	75	5:07	Touchdown
12	HOU	HOU 25	6	64	1:45	Touchdown
13	TEN	TEN 23	10	77	3:39	Touchdown
14	HOU	HOU 35	5	65	1:30	Touchdown
15	TEN	TEN 25	2	3	0:07	Fumble
16	HOU	TEN 28	4	28	1:32	Touchdown
17	TEN	TEN 25	10	11	3:07	Turnover on downs
18	HOU	HOU 48	7	37	2:59	Touchdown
19	TEN	TEN 25	21	89	8:32	Touchdown
20	HOU	HOU 9	9	58	1:24	Turnover on downs
21	TEN	TEN 25	4	56	0:18	Turnover on downs

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 89 scrimmage yards over 21 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	18/27	216	1	0	2	8.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	34	250	7.4	2	3.5
Ryan Tannehill	7	38	5.4	2	7.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Brown	10	11	151	1	41%	15.0
Corey Davis	5	11	39	0	41%	-1.9
Anthony Firkser	2	2	18	0	7%	1.0
Jonnu Smith	1	2	8	0	7%	0.1
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
David Long Jr.	3	5	0.0	0
Kenny Vaccaro	4	2	0.0	0
Malcolm Butler	5	1	0.0	0
DaQuan Jones	1	3	0.0	0
Kevin Byard	4	0	0.0	0
Desmond King	3	1	1.0	0
Adoree' Jackson	4	0	0.0	0
Rashaan Evans	3	1	0.0	1
Harold Landry	3	1	1.0	0
Brooks Reed	2	1	1.0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	28/39	365	3	1	4	8.9
AJ McCarron	1/1	20	0	0	0	3.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Johnson	14	84	6.0	1	3.0
Deshaun Watson	3	12	4.0	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	11	16	166	2	40%	7.1
Keke Coutee	6	7	90	0	18%	4.4
Pharaoh Brown	5	5	48	1	13%	4.8
David Johnson	3	5	36	0	13%	-0.0
Steven Mitchell	1	1	20	0	3%	3.7
Chad Hansen	2	4	16	0	10%	-2.1
Jordan Akins	1	2	9	0	5%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Zach Cunningham	7	5	0.0	0
A.J. Moore	4	6	0.0	0
Jonathan Greenard	5	4	0.0	0
Tyrell Adams	4	3	0.0	1
Vernon Hargreaves	3	2	0.0	1
Keion Crossen	4	1	0.0	0
Carlos Watkins	2	2	1.0	0
Charles Omenihu	3	1	1.0	0
Lonnie Johnson	1	3	0.0	0
Brennan Scarlett	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -7
Closing total: 55.5
TEN moneyline: -301
HOU moneyline: +259

Titans closed -7, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 55.5; the game landed 79 — over by 23.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: TEN 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Romeo Crennel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.