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2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
CommandersWashington20
BY 6final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia14
Washington Commanders 20 at Philadelphia Eagles 14. Final.
Commanders -6.5 no cover
The verdict · 2020 Week 17
Washington Commanders 20, Eagles 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 9:42, 2nd and 5 — 16.4 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 9:42 · 2nd and 5
Unnamed on the sheet
Commanders
(9:42) (Shotgun) 7-N.Sudfeld FUMBLES (Aborted) at PHI 42, touched at PHI 42, RECOVERED by WAS-99-C.Young at PHI 35. 99-C.Young pushed ob at PHI 25 for 10 yards (35-B.Scott).
U 43.5 ✓
Commanders closed -6.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Washington Commanders 20–14. Biggest swing: Q4 9:42, Commanders +16.4% win probability on one snap.
16.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Marcus EppsEaglesQ3 4:58(4:58) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right intended for 41-J.McKissic INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Epps [75-V.Curry] at WAS 15. 22-M.Epps to WAS 15 for no gain (41-J.McKissic).
13.5pts
T.J. EdwardsEaglesQ4 10:23(10:23) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 57-T.Edwards [58-G.Avery] at PHI 28. 57-T.Edwards to PHI 41 for 13 yards (24-A.Gibson).
13.4pts
What separated them
Red zone
Commanders won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Eagles at 2 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Commanders won this one — 2 giveaways, against Eagles at 3 giveaways.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Commanders won this one — -0.18 expected points per carry, against Eagles at -0.28 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Commanders won this one — -0.21 expected points per snap, against Eagles at -0.30 expected points per snap.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Commanders162 of 172 plays carry both curves
(9:42) (Shotgun) 7-N.Sudfeld FUMBLES (Aborted) at PHI 42, touched at PHI 42, RECOVERED by WAS-99-C.Young at PHI 35. 99-C.Young pushed ob at PHI 25 for 10 yards (35-B.Scott).
Swing −16.4 for EaglesExpected points −6.25 for EaglesThe model had Eagles 15 points higher than the market did.play 137
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 9:42WAS +16% win prob(9:42) (Shotgun) 7-N.Sudfeld FUMBLES (Aborted) at PHI 42, touched at PHI 42, RECOVERED by WAS-99-C.Young at PHI 35. 99-C.Young pushed ob at PHI 25 for 10 yards (35-B.Scott).
3rd · 4:58WAS +14% win prob(4:58) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right intended for 41-J.McKissic INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Epps [75-V.Curry] at WAS 15. 22-M.Epps to WAS 15 for no gain (41-J.McKissic).
4th · 10:23WAS +13% win prob(10:23) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 57-T.Edwards [58-G.Avery] at PHI 28. 57-T.Edwards to PHI 41 for 13 yards (24-A.Gibson).
2nd · 2:43WAS +12% win prob(2:43) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith sacked at WAS 19 for -8 yards (49-A.Singleton).
2nd · 0:26PHI +10% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 82-L.Thomas for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:47PHI +9% win prob(4:47) (Shotgun) 2-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 19-J.Arcega-Whiteside to WAS 6 for 30 yards (31-K.Curl).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Logan Thomas's 13-yard touchdown catch with 0:26 left in the 2nd put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st4:24Terry McLaurin·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Alex Smithfrom Alex Smith+77–0
1st2:06Dustin Hopkins·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+310–0
2nd0:26Logan Thomas·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Alex Smithfrom Alex SmithLead never changed again+717–14
4th7:46Dustin Hopkins·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+320–14
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryEagles
Commanders7–0Eagles
248Total yards216
4.0Yards per play3.3
35%Success rate34%
40%Third-down rate36%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays3
14First downs12
3Sacks taken3
2Turnovers3
The read
Commanders ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.21Commanders: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.30Eagles: −0.30 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.24Commanders: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.31Eagles: −0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Commanders: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.28Eagles: −0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 62 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Eagles’s 65 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 2, Eagles 3.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 50.0% in week 16 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 20.3 points.
PHI's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 16 against 50.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.7 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Eagles14.3%
right on their number · −3.5 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 25.8 points below their season mean of 25.8% and 1.3 times their own 20.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
75Brandon ScherffG · Every snap100%63 snaps
76Morgan MosesT · Every snap100%63 snaps
71Wes SchweitzerG · Every snap100%63 snaps
78Cornelius LucasT · Every snap100%63 snaps
82Logan ThomasTE · Every snap100%63 snaps
73Chase RoullierC · Every snap100%63 snaps
89Cam SimsWR · Every snap100%63 snaps
11Alex SmithQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
17Terry McLaurinWR · Full-time81%51 snaps
24Antonio GibsonRB · Heavy rotation59%37 snaps
15Steven SimsWR · Rotational48%30 snaps
41J.D. McKissicRB · Rotational44%28 snaps
87Jeremy SprinkleTE · Rotational37%23 snaps
34Peyton BarberRB · Situational10%6 snaps
85Marcus BaughTE · Situational10%6 snaps
72David SharpeT · Situational6%4 snaps
83Isaiah WrightWR · Situational3%2 snaps
80Dontrelle InmanWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Kevin Pierre-LouisOLBThomas DavisOLBLamar MillerRBDavid SteinmetzTRobert FosterWRAntonio Gandy-GoldenWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Sudfeld FUMBLES−24% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(9:42) (Shotgun) 7-N.Sudfeld FUMBLES (Aborted) at PHI 42, touched at PHI 42, RECOVERED by WAS-99-C.Young at PHI 35. 99-C.Young pushed ob at PHI 25 for 10 yards (35-B.Scott).
Q4 9:42 · Eagles · 2nd & 5 at PHI 46 · gained nothing · -6.25 EP · −24.0% win probability
160 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 91 yards from the WAS 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.16
Success rate
36%
Yards
464
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.2768%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.0474%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.4554%
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.7733%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.0622%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.8163%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.010%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Eagles1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Eagles2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to midfield
Commanders6Eagles0
Commanders7Eagles0
Touchdown17 plays, from the Commanders 9 to the Eagles 4
Intercepted3 plays
Commanders10Eagles0
Field goal4 plays, from the Eagles 32 to the Eagles 24
The period ended7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Commanders 49
2nd quarter49 plays
Commanders10Eagles6
Commanders10Eagles7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Commanders 34 to the Commanders 6
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 40
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Commanders10Eagles13
Commanders10Eagles14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Eagles 35 to the Commanders 6
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 22 to the Commanders 27
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Commanders16Eagles14
Commanders17Eagles14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Commanders 45 to the Eagles 13
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 32
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 28 to the Eagles 35
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the Commanders 23
Punt10 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Commanders 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted1 play
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.3 seconds
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Commanders 15 to the Commanders 4
The period ended4 plays, from the Commanders 4 to the Commanders 18
4th quarter49 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Commanders 31
Intercepted4 plays, from the Eagles 11 to the Eagles 16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Commanders 45 to the Eagles 41
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Eagles 41 to the Eagles 46
Commanders20Eagles14
Field goal5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 24
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 39
Punt14 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Eagles 36
The period ended8 plays, from the Eagles 8 to the Eagles 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Commanderscategory by categoryEagles
Commanders6
Eagles0
