2020 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 2021 · Lincoln Financial Field

Washington CommandersWinner

Philadelphia Eagles

WAS -6.5 no coverU 43.5 ✓Commanders closed -6.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Washington Commanders 20–14. Biggest swing: Q4 9:42, WAS +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 9:42WAS — PHI PHI ball · 2nd & 5WAS 72%

(9:42) (Shotgun) 7-N.Sudfeld FUMBLES (Aborted) at PHI 42, touched at PHI 42, RECOVERED by WAS-99-C.Young at PHI 35. 99-C.Young pushed ob at PHI 25 for 10 yards (35-B.Scott).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 9:42WAS +16% win prob(9:42) (Shotgun) 7-N.Sudfeld FUMBLES (Aborted) at PHI 42, touched at PHI 42, RECOVERED by WAS-99-C.Young at PHI 35. 99-C.Young pushed ob at PHI 25 for 10 yards (35-B.Scott).
Q3 · 4:58WAS +14% win prob(4:58) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right intended for 41-J.McKissic INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Epps [75-V.Curry] at WAS 15. 22-M.Epps to WAS 15 for no gain (41-J.McKissic).
Q4 · 10:23WAS +13% win prob(10:23) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 57-T.Edwards [58-G.Avery] at PHI 28. 57-T.Edwards to PHI 41 for 13 yards (24-A.Gibson).
Q2 · 2:43WAS +12% win prob(2:43) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith sacked at WAS 19 for -8 yards (49-A.Singleton).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Eagles
Offensive plays	62	65
Total yards	248 (edge)	216
Yards per play	4.0 (edge)	3.3
Expected points added / play	-0.21 (edge)	-0.30
Success rate	35% (edge)	34%
Dropback rate	56%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24 (edge)	-0.31
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18 (edge)	-0.28
Third downs	6/15 (edge)	5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	14 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	2 (edge)	3

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.30.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Alex SmithQB

22/32, 162 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-8.2 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

7/20, 72 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-12.6 expected points added · -25.9% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Antonio GibsonRB

19 att, 75 yds, 0 TD

-4.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Boston ScottRB

15 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Cam SimsWR

5/5 for 43 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 3.0 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

J.J. Arcega-WhitesideWR

2/3 for 40 yds, 0 TD

10% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PHI	PHI 25	7	10	2:28	Punt
2	WAS	WAS 9	16	86	8:13	Touchdown
3	PHI	PHI 25	3	0	0:11	Interception
4	WAS	PHI 32	4	8	2:06	Turnover on downs
5	PHI	PHI 25	12	44	6:44	Touchdown
6	WAS	WAS 25	6	10	2:15	Punt
7	PHI	PHI 35	8	65	4:09	Touchdown
8	WAS	WAS 22	5	-3	2:02	Punt
9	PHI	PHI 26	4	0	0:28	Punt
10	WAS	WAS 45	10	50	1:04	Touchdown
11	PHI	PHI 25	3	7	0:20	End of half
12	WAS	WAS 25	5	3	2:29	Punt
13	PHI	PHI 28	4	7	1:29	Punt
14	WAS	WAS 18	4	5	1:30	Punt
15	PHI	PHI 29	9	35	4:34	Punt
16	WAS	WAS 20	1	0	0:04	Interception
17	PHI	WAS 15	7	11	3:00	Turnover on downs
18	WAS	WAS 4	8	27	4:19	Punt
19	PHI	PHI 11	3	5	0:58	Interception
20	WAS	WAS 45	3	14	1:22	Interception
21	PHI	PHI 41	2	5	0:41	Fumble
22	WAS	PHI 25	4	11	1:52	Turnover on downs
23	PHI	PHI 25	8	3	3:14	Punt
24	WAS	WAS 25	9	37	3:32	Punt
25	PHI	PHI 8	7	24	0:56	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 86 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Alex Smith	22/32	162	2	2	3	-8.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Antonio Gibson	19	75	3.9	-4.5
Steven Sims	1	18	18.0	1.2
Peyton Barber	4	10	2.5	0.5
Alex Smith	1	0	0.0	-0.7
J.D. McKissic	2	0	0.0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cam Sims	5	5	43	0	17%	3.0
Terry McLaurin	7	8	40	1	28%	2.1
Logan Thomas	3	6	37	1	21%	-0.8
J.D. McKissic	5	8	30	0	28%	-5.3
Antonio Gibson	1	1	6	0	3%	0.2
Steven Sims	1	1	6	0	3%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jon Bostic	4	4	1.0	0	0
Cole Holcomb	6	1	0.0	0	0
Jonathan Allen	3	3	0.0	0	0
Montez Sweat	4	1	1.0	0	0
Kendall Fuller	3	1	0.0	0	1
Jeremy Reaves	4	0	0.0	1	1
Kamren Curl	3	0	0.0	1	1
Daron Payne	2	0	0.0	0	0
Jordan Kunaszyk	1	1	0.0	0	0
Chase Young	2	0	1.0	0	0

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	7/20	72	1	1	-12.6
Nate Sudfeld	5/12	32	1	2	-4.7
Greg Ward	1/1	15	0	0	0.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Boston Scott	15	65	4.3	0	-1.3
Jalen Hurts	8	34	4.3	2	5.8
Nate Sudfeld	2	12	6.0	0	-6.0
Jason Huntley	2	5	2.5	0	-0.9
Corey Clement	1	1	1.0	0	-0.3
John Hightower	1	1	1.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside	2	3	40	10%	4.4
Zach Ertz	3	6	16	21%	-6.3
Jalen Reagor	1	1	15	3%	0.9
Travis Fulgham	1	2	15	7%	-0.1
Boston Scott	2	5	14	17%	-1.9
Corey Clement	1	1	7	3%	0.2
Greg Ward	1	3	6	10%	-1.2
Quez Watkins	1	5	6	17%	-5.0
Jason Huntley	1	1	0	3%	-0.6
John Hightower	0	2	0	7%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Alex Singleton	8	6	1.0	0	0
T.J. Edwards	3	4	0.0	1	1
K'Von Wallace	5	1	0.0	0	0
Marcus Epps	3	2	0.0	1	1
Grayland Arnold	3	2	0.0	0	1
Malik Jackson	2	3	1.0	0	0
Rudy Ford	3	1	0.0	0	0
Rashad Smith	2	1	0.0	0	0
Blake Countess	3	0	0.0	0	0
Javon Hargrave	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: WAS -6.5
Closing total: 43.5
WAS moneyline: -283
PHI moneyline: +245

Commanders closed -6.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 34 — under by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 38°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Ronald Torbert
Rest: WAS 7 days · PHI 7 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Doug Pederson

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.