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Baltimore Ravens 20 at Tennessee Titans 13. Final.
Ravens -3.5 ✓U 53 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Wild Card
Baltimore Ravens 20, Titans 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 2:45, 3rd and 9, on Lamar Jackson — 16.4 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:45 · 3rd and 9
Lamar Jackson
Ravens
(2:45) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles up the middle for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Ravens closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Baltimore Ravens 20–13. Biggest swing: Q2 2:45, Ravens +16.4% win probability on one snap.
16.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Malcolm ButlerTitansQ1 4:28(4:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right intended for 80-M.Boykin INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Butler at TEN 28. 21-M.Butler to TEN 28 for no gain (80-M.Boykin).
12.9pts
Justin TuckerTitansQ4 12:16(12:16) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
11.1pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Titans at 2 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.12 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.22 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Ravens won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Titans at 4 of 12 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.18 expected points per snap, against Titans at -0.10 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Ravens143 of 152 plays carry both curves
(2:45) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles up the middle for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −16.4 for TitansExpected points −5.69 for TitansThe model had Titans 16 points higher than the market did.play 61
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:45TEN +16% win prob(2:45) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles up the middle for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:28BAL +13% win prob(4:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right intended for 80-M.Boykin INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Butler at TEN 28. 21-M.Butler to TEN 28 for no gain (80-M.Boykin).
4th · 12:16BAL +11% win prob(12:16) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
4th · 2:00BAL +9% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right intended for 14-K.Raymond INTERCEPTED by 24-M.Peters at BAL 40. 24-M.Peters to TEN 47 for 13 yards (14-K.Raymond). PENALTY on BAL, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 47.
2nd · 1:51TEN +9% win prob(1:51) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to BAL 31, Center-47-M.Overton, out of bounds.
2nd · 0:12TEN +9% win prob(:12) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to TEN 28, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond. PENALTY on TEN-56-D.Bates, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 29 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.K. Dobbins's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 9:05 left in the 3rd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:44A.J. Brown·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+70–7
1st1:43Stephen Gostkowski·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap M.Overton+30–10
2nd10:02Justin Tucker·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+33–10
3rd9:05J.K. Dobbins·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+717–10
4th15:00Stephen Gostkowski·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap M.Overton+317–13
4th4:23Justin Tucker·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+320–13
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryTitans
Ravens6–1Titans
403Total yards209
6.5Yards per play4.3
42%Success rate37%
54%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
9Explosive plays2
21First downs10
5Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Ravens ahead 6–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Titans, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Ravens: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.10Titans: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Ravens: +0.25 expected points added per play
−0.02Titans: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.12Ravens: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.22Titans: −0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 62 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Titans’s 49 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 4, Titans 2.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2020 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 10 pts
right on their number · +0.3 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Titans23.3%
leaned — got home · +12.7 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+1.62× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.3%, 12.7 points above their season mean of 10.6% and 1.6 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson scrambles+16% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(2:45) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles up the middle for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 2:45 · Ravens · 3rd & 9 at TEN 48 · gained 48 · +5.69 EP · +15.6% win probability
141 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 152 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 82 yards from the BAL 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
152 of 152 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
152
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
39%
Yards
610
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.2048%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR19+0.2221%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR13-0.0777%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR13+0.1777%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.0354%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR12+0.2750%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.5740%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR5+0.4640%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
152 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
152 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 31
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 18 to the Ravens 23
Ravens0Titans6
Ravens0Titans7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Ravens 7
Intercepted4 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 36
Ravens0Titans10
Field goal7 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Ravens 27
The period ended5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 28
2nd quarter41 plays
Ravens3Titans10
Field goal9 plays, from the Ravens 45 to the Titans 10
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Ravens9Titans10
Ravens10Titans10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 18 to the Titans 48
Punt6 plays
The period ended11 plays, from the Ravens 31 to midfield
3rd quarter31 plays
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Ravens16Titans10
Ravens17Titans10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Ravens 23 to the Titans 4
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 24 to the Titans 44
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 7 to the Ravens 14
The period ended7 plays, from the Titans 42 to the Ravens 5
4th quarter42 plays
Ravens17Titans13
Field goal1 play
No good8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Titans 34
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 42 to the Ravens 40
Ravens20Titans13
Field goal10 plays, from the Ravens 15 to the Titans 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Titans 37
The period ended10 plays, from the Ravens 38 to the Titans 15
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
