2020 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 10, 2021 · Nissan Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

Tennessee Titans

BAL -3.5 ✓U 53 ✓Ravens closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Baltimore Ravens 20–13. Biggest swing: Q2 2:45, TEN +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 2:45BAL — TEN BAL ball · 3rd & 9TEN 54%

(2:45) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles up the middle for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 2:45TEN +16% win prob(2:45) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles up the middle for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 4:28BAL +13% win prob(4:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right intended for 80-M.Boykin INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Butler at TEN 28. 21-M.Butler to TEN 28 for no gain (80-M.Boykin).
Q4 · 12:16BAL +11% win prob(12:16) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
Q4 · 2:00BAL +9% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right intended for 14-K.Raymond INTERCEPTED by 24-M.Peters at BAL 40. 24-M.Peters to TEN 47 for 13 yards (14-K.Raymond). PENALTY on BAL, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 47.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Titans
Offensive plays	62	49
Total yards	403 (edge)	209
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	4.3
Expected points added / play	0.18 (edge)	-0.10
Success rate	42% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	48%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.25 (edge)	-0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12 (edge)	-0.22
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	10
Sacks taken	5	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

17/24, 179 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

1.7 expected points added · +7.2% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

18/26, 165 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-0.5 expected points added · +5.6% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

16 att, 136 yds, 1 TD

3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

J.K. DobbinsRB

9 att, 43 yds, 1 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Marquise BrownWR

7/9 for 109 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

A.J. BrownWR

6/10 for 83 yds, 1 TD

38% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 25	5	6	1:30	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 18	4	5	1:40	Punt
3	TEN	TEN 30	11	75	6:11	Touchdown
4	BAL	BAL 25	4	11	1:19	Interception
5	TEN	TEN 28	7	45	2:42	Turnover on downs
6	BAL	BAL 25	13	60	6:39	Turnover on downs
7	TEN	TEN 25	6	-1	3:24	Punt
8	BAL	BAL 18	8	82	4:03	Touchdown
9	TEN	TEN 25	5	-6	0:48	Punt
10	BAL	BAL 31	7	13	1:44	End of half
11	BAL	BAL 23	12	77	5:59	Touchdown
12	TEN	TEN 24	8	20	3:52	Punt
13	BAL	BAL 7	4	5	1:58	Punt
14	TEN	TEN 42	7	36	3:15	Turnover on downs
15	BAL	BAL 25	8	41	2:45	Turnover on downs
16	TEN	TEN 42	6	18	2:11	Punt
17	BAL	BAL 15	9	62	5:41	Turnover on downs
18	TEN	TEN 21	7	16	2:29	Interception
19	BAL	BAL 38	6	47	1:50	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 82 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	17/24	179	0	1	5	1.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Lamar Jackson	16	136	8.5	1	3.9
J.K. Dobbins	9	43	4.8	1	0.3
Gus Edwards	8	38	4.8	0	0.7
Marquise Brown	2	19	9.5	0	1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Marquise Brown	7	9	109	38%	7.0
Mark Andrews	4	6	41	25%	1.1
Patrick Ricard	3	4	26	17%	1.9
Willie Snead	2	2	9	8%	-0.5
Dez Bryant	0	1	0	4%	-0.2
Miles Boykin	0	1	0	4%	-3.1
J.K. Dobbins	1	1	-6	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Pernell McPhee	5	1	0.0	0	0
Derek Wolfe	2	2	1.0	0	0
Marcus Peters	4	0	0.0	1	1
Marlon Humphrey	3	1	0.0	0	1
Matt Judon	3	0	0.0	0	0
Chuck Clark	2	1	0.0	0	0
DeShon Elliott	2	1	0.0	0	1
Jihad Ward	2	0	0.0	0	0
Tyus Bowser	1	1	0.0	0	0
Nnamdi Madubuike	2	0	0.0	0	1

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	18/26	165	1	1	1	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Derrick Henry	18	40	2.2	-5.6
Ryan Tannehill	2	6	3.0	2.0
Jeremy McNichols	1	4	4.0	-0.5
Darrynton Evans	1	1	1.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Brown	6	10	83	1	38%	5.7
Anthony Firkser	2	2	44	0	8%	3.9
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	2	2	17	0	8%	0.7
Derrick Henry	3	3	11	0	12%	-1.0
Jonnu Smith	2	3	9	0	12%	-1.9
Cameron Batson	1	1	6	0	4%	1.4
Geoff Swaim	1	1	5	0	4%	0.0
Kalif Raymond	0	1	0	0	4%	-2.7
Corey Davis	0	2	0	0	8%	-3.2
Ryan Tannehill	1	1	-10	0	4%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Harold Landry	7	2	2.0	0	0
Adoree' Jackson	8	0	0.0	0	0
Kenny Vaccaro	5	3	0.0	0	0
Rashaan Evans	2	4	0.0	0	0
Kevin Byard	2	3	0.0	0	1
Malcolm Butler	3	1	0.0	1	2
Desmond King	3	1	0.0	0	0
David Long Jr.	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jeffery Simmons	2	1	0.0	0	0
DaQuan Jones	2	1	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -3.5
Closing total: 53
BAL moneyline: -182
TEN moneyline: +163

Ravens closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 53; the game landed 33 — under by 20.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 33°F, wind 1 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: BAL 7 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Mike Vrabel