2020 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 10, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Chicago Bears

New Orleans SaintsWinner

NO -11 ✓U 48 ✓DomeSaints closed -11 and covered, winning by 12.

New Orleans Saints 21–9. Biggest swing: Q2 11:38, CHI +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 11:38CHI — NO NO ball · 1st & 10NO 90%

(11:38) #7 T.Hill at quarterback. (Shotgun) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill sacked at NO 20 for -7 yards (38-Ta.Gipson). FUMBLES (38-Ta.Gipson) [59-D.Trevathan], RECOVERED by CHI-90-J.Jenkins at NO 24.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 11:38CHI +7% win prob(11:38) #7 T.Hill at quarterback. (Shotgun) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill sacked at NO 20 for -7 yards (38-Ta.Gipson). FUMBLES (38-Ta.Gipson) [59-D.Trevathan], RECOVERED by CHI-90-J.Jenkins at NO 24.
Q2 · 14:14CHI +6% win prob(14:14) 3-W.Lutz 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
Q3 · 11:44CHI +6% win prob(11:44) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 25 yards to NO 15, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.
Q1 · 5:14NO +5% win prob(5:14) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 13-M.Thomas for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 6, YAC 5

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Saints
Offensive plays	49	75
Total yards	239	385 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9	5.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.23	-0.00 (edge)
Success rate	29%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	67%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18	0.21 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.32	-0.24 (edge)
Third downs	1/10	11/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.23.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

28/39, 265 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

14.5 expected points added · +3.2% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

19/29, 199 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-2.5 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

23 att, 99 yds, 1 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

12 att, 31 yds, 0 TD

-3.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Deonte HartyWR

7/7 for 83 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Michael ThomasWR

5/7 for 73 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	11	37	4:18	Punt
2	CHI	CHI 8	4	5	1:16	Punt
3	NO	NO 45	9	50	4:17	Touchdown
4	CHI	CHI 20	8	48	3:04	Turnover on downs
5	NO	NO 32	8	41	2:58	Turnover on downs
6	CHI	CHI 40	4	2	1:04	Punt
7	NO	NO 16	3	8	1:33	Fumble
8	CHI	NO 24	6	26	3:24	Turnover on downs
9	NO	NO 25	6	5	1:51	Punt
10	CHI	CHI 20	5	14	2:04	Punt
11	NO	NO 23	7	33	2:22	Punt
12	CHI	CHI 18	4	8	1:49	Punt
13	CHI	CHI 34	9	31	3:23	Punt
14	NO	NO 15	13	85	7:29	Touchdown
15	CHI	CHI 25	5	5	1:27	Punt
16	NO	NO 36	16	65	8:51	Touchdown
17	CHI	CHI 25	5	1	1:12	Punt
18	NO	NO 32	11	61	5:19	Turnover on downs
19	CHI	CHI 1	11	99	2:19	Touchdown

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 99 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	19/29	199	1	0	1	-2.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Montgomery	12	31	2.6	-3.7
Mitchell Trubisky	3	10	3.3	-3.6
DeAndre Carter	1	3	3.0	-0.1
Anthony Miller	1	2	2.0	-0.4
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	2	2.0	-0.6
Ryan Nall	1	0	0.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Robinson	6	7	55	0	26%	2.6
Riley Ridley	2	2	36	0	7%	2.4
Javon Wims	1	4	28	0	15%	-1.1
Jimmy Graham	2	2	25	1	7%	4.0
Anthony Miller	2	3	22	0	11%	-1.0
DeAndre Carter	3	4	17	0	15%	-2.2
Cole Kmet	3	4	16	0	15%	-2.4
David Montgomery	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Danny Trevathan	9	1	0.0	0
Tashaun Gipson	7	1	1.0	1
Bilal Nichols	3	4	0.0	0
Kindle Vildor	7	0	0.0	0
Manti Te'o	4	2	0.0	0
Eddie Jackson	6	0	0.0	0
Akiem Hicks	3	3	0.0	0
Mario Edwards	4	0	0.0	0
Barkevious Mingo	1	2	0.0	0
Kyle Fuller	3	0	0.0	1

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	28/39	265	2	0	0	14.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	23	99	4.3	1	-0.9
Taysom Hill	4	15	3.8	0	0.0
Latavius Murray	4	9	2.3	0	-1.5
Drew Brees	3	2	0.7	0	-4.8
Deonte Harty	1	-2	-2.0	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Deonte Harty	7	7	83	0	19%	9.3
Michael Thomas	5	7	73	1	19%	5.1
Jared Cook	4	7	40	0	19%	-1.0
Alvin Kamara	2	2	17	0	6%	2.3
Michael Burton	2	2	15	0	6%	0.8
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	1	1	14	0	3%	2.8
Latavius Murray	2	2	11	1	6%	1.5
Taysom Hill	2	2	5	0	6%	-0.9
Adam Trautman	1	3	4	0	8%	-1.6
Emmanuel Sanders	2	3	3	0	8%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	6	2	0.0	0
Demario Davis	4	1	0.0	0
Cameron Jordan	5	0	0.0	0
Janoris Jenkins	5	0	0.0	1
Malcolm Jenkins	2	1	0.0	0
Malcom Brown	2	1	0.0	0
Marcus Williams	3	0	0.0	0
Sheldon Rankins	2	0	1.0	0
Marshon Lattimore	2	0	0.0	2
Alex Anzalone	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -11
Closing total: 48
CHI moneyline: +443
NO moneyline: -558

Saints closed -11 and covered, winning by 12.

Total closed 48; the game landed 30 — under by 18.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: CHI 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Sean Payton