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DYNATYZE
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DYNATYZE
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New Orleans Saints 21, Bears 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 11:38, 1st and 10, on Taysom Hill — 7.2 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Dome
Saints closed -11 and covered, winning by 12.
New Orleans Saints 21–9. Biggest swing: Q2 11:38, Bears +7.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 11:38 · 1st and 10
Taysom Hill
Bears
(11:38) #7 T.Hill at quarterback. (Shotgun) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill sacked at NO 20 for -7 yards (38-Ta.Gipson). FUMBLES (38-Ta.Gipson) [59-D.Trevathan], RECOVERED by CHI-90-J.Jenkins at NO 24.
7.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Wil LutzBearsQ2 14:14(14:14) 3-W.Lutz 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
6.5pts
Unnamed on the sheetSaintsQ3 11:44(11:44) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 25 yards to NO 15, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.
6.0pts
What separated them
Third down
Saints won this one — 11 of 17 on third down, against Bears at 1 of 10 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.21 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.18 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — -0.00 expected points per snap, against Bears at -0.23 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Bears160 of 171 plays carry both curves
(11:38) #7 T.Hill at quarterback. (Shotgun) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill sacked at NO 20 for -7 yards (38-Ta.Gipson). FUMBLES (38-Ta.Gipson) [59-D.Trevathan], RECOVERED by CHI-90-J.Jenkins at NO 24.
Swing −7.2 for SaintsExpected points −6.11 for SaintsThe model had Bears 17 points higher than the market did.play 53
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 11:38CHI +7% win prob(11:38) #7 T.Hill at quarterback. (Shotgun) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill sacked at NO 20 for -7 yards (38-Ta.Gipson). FUMBLES (38-Ta.Gipson) [59-D.Trevathan], RECOVERED by CHI-90-J.Jenkins at NO 24.
2nd · 14:14CHI +6% win prob(14:14) 3-W.Lutz 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
3rd · 11:44CHI +6% win prob(11:44) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 25 yards to NO 15, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.
1st · 5:14NO +5% win prob(5:14) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 13-M.Thomas for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 6, YAC 5
3rd · 14:21NO +5% win prob(14:21) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 12-A.Robinson to 50 for 21 yards (20-J.Jenkins). Pass 21, YAC 0
3rd · 13:36NO +5% win prob(13:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 12-A.Robinson to NO 35 for 15 yards (27-M.Jenkins). Penalty on NO-23-M.Lattimore, Defensive Holding, declined. Pass 15, YAC 0
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Michael Thomas's 11-yard touchdown catch with 5:14 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Saints ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bears, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.23Bears: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.00Saints: −0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.18Bears: −0.18 expected points added per play
+0.21Saints: +0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.32Bears: −0.32 expected points added per play
−0.24Saints: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 49 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Saints’s 75 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Bears 2, Saints 4.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2020 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −1.8 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Saints9.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.9 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.21× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 9.1%, 7.9 points below their season mean of 17.0% and 1.2 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurst reported−10% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(11:38) #7 T.Hill at quarterback. (Shotgun) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill sacked at NO 20 for -7 yards (38-Ta.Gipson). FUMBLES (38-Ta.Gipson) [59-D.Trevathan], RECOVERED by CHI-90-J.Jenkins at NO 24.
Q2 11:38 · Saints · 1st & 10 at NO 27 · lost 3 · -6.11 EP · −10.3% win probability
158 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 99 yards from the CHI 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
36%
Yards
624
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.0148%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.2459%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.0080%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.1267%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.7533%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.3760%
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Saints0 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Bears 38
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 8 to the Bears 13
Bears0Saints6
Bears0Saints7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 45 to the Bears 11
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Saints 34
The period ended7 plays, from the Saints 32 to the Bears 40
2nd quarter46 plays
No good3 plays, from the Bears 41 to the Bears 32
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Bears 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerSix
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Saints 16 to the Saints 27
Bears3Saints7
Field goal7 plays, from the Saints 24 to the Saints 10
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 37
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 34
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 23 to the Bears 44
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 18 to the Bears 26
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Saints 32
Bears3Saints13
Bears3Saints14
Touchdown15 plays, from the Saints 15 to the Bears 6
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 30
The period ended6 plays, from the Saints 36 to the Bears 45
4th quarter47 plays
Bears3Saints20
Bears3Saints21
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bears 44 to the Bears 1
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 26
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Saints 32 to the Bears 1
Bears9Saints21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bears 1 to the Saints 19
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Bearscategory by categorySaints
Bears0
Saints6
