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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 300s tick · as of 5:28 PM ET · 16 to play
Cleveland Browns 48 at Pittsburgh Steelers 37. Final.
Steelers -5 upset
The verdict · 2020 Wild Card
Cleveland Browns 48, Steelers 37 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 14:54, 1st and 10 — 16.8 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:54 · 1st and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
Browns
(14:54) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger Aborted. 53-M.Pouncey FUMBLES at PIT 22, touched at PIT 2, RECOVERED by CLE-42-K.Joseph at PIT -2. TOUCHDOWN.
O 47.5 ✓
27°F
Steelers closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cleveland Browns 48–37. Biggest swing: Q1 14:54, Browns +16.8% win probability on one snap.
16.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
M.StewartBrownsQ1 10:53(10:53) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 24-B.Snell INTERCEPTED by 36-M.Stewart Jr. [42-K.Joseph] at PIT 49. 36-M.Stewart Jr. to PIT 46 for 3 yards (53-M.Pouncey).
8.9pts
Kareem HuntBrownsQ1 2:01(2:01) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Browns won this one — no giveaways, against Steelers at 5 giveaways.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Browns won this one — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.41 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Browns at 3 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Browns194 of 206 plays carry both curves
(14:54) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger Aborted. 53-M.Pouncey FUMBLES at PIT 22, touched at PIT 2, RECOVERED by CLE-42-K.Joseph at PIT -2. TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −16.8 for SteelersExpected points −8.03 for SteelersThe model had Browns 12 points higher than the market did.play 3
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:54CLE +17% win prob(14:54) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger Aborted. 53-M.Pouncey FUMBLES at PIT 22, touched at PIT 2, RECOVERED by CLE-42-K.Joseph at PIT -2. TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:01PIT +10% win prob(2:01) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:53CLE +9% win prob(10:53) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 24-B.Snell INTERCEPTED by 36-M.Stewart Jr. [42-K.Joseph] at PIT 49. 36-M.Stewart Jr. to PIT 46 for 3 yards (53-M.Pouncey).
1st · 9:55PIT +8% win prob(9:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 80-J.Landry for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:47PIT +8% win prob(1:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-J.Conner right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:33CLE +7% win prob(3:33) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle intended for 18-Di.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 29-S.Redwine at PIT 45. 29-S.Redwine ran ob at PIT 15 for 30 yards (71-M.Feiler; 53-M.Pouncey).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Karl Joseph's touchdown with 14:54 left in the 1st put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 13 scores that followed.
4th11:13Chase Claypool·29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger · two-point no good+642–29
4th4:31Cody Parkey·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+345–29
4th2:55Cody Parkey·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+348–29
4th1:13Chase Claypool·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger · two-point good+848–37
14 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categorySteelers
Browns2–6Steelers
395Total yards555
6.4Yards per play6.4
44%Success rate53%
46%Third-down rate53%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
9Explosive plays6
20First downs37
0Sacks taken0
0Turnovers5
The read
Steelers ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Browns, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.24Browns: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.01Steelers: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.39Browns: +0.39 expected points added per play
+0.10Steelers: +0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Browns: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.41Steelers: −0.41 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 62 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Steelers’s 87 at 82%. Red-zone trips: Browns 7, Steelers 5.
NoteSteelers outgained Browns 555-395 but lost the turnover battle 5-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, sat 23.1 points below their season number of 23.1% — they stayed blocked by 3.0 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2020 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 33 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.6 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 71 dropbacks
Steelers0.0%
off script — stayed blocked · −23.1 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−3.02× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePIT's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 23.1 points below their season mean of 23.1% and 3.0 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
71Jedrick WillsT · Every snap100%67 snaps
64J.C. TretterC · Every snap100%67 snaps
77Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%67 snaps
6Baker MayfieldQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Full-time90%60 snaps
80Jarvis LandryWR · Full-time87%58 snaps
68Michael DunnT · Heavy rotation79%53 snaps
82Rashard HigginsWR · Heavy rotation78%52 snaps
70Kendall LammT · Heavy rotation75%50 snaps
11Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Heavy rotation69%46 snaps
24Nick ChubbRB · Heavy rotation58%39 snaps
27Kareem HuntRB · Rotational37%25 snaps
88Harrison BryantTE · Rotational33%22 snaps
85David NjokuTE · Rotational31%21 snaps
78Jack ConklinT · Rotational25%17 snaps
62Blake HanceT · Situational21%14 snaps
89Stephen CarlsonTE · Situational7%5 snaps
31Andy JanovichFB · Situational6%4 snaps
30D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Brian AllenCBJoe JacksonDETedric ThompsonFSJovante MoffattSSAlex TaylorTJa'Marcus BradleyWRMarvin HallWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Case KeenumQBAlexander HollinsWR
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
76Chukwuma OkoraforT · Every snap100%89 snaps
66David DeCastroG · Every snap100%89 snaps
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%89 snaps
7Ben RoethlisbergerQB · Every snap100%89 snaps
53Maurkice PounceyC · Every snap100%89 snaps
71Matt FeilerT · Every snap100%89 snaps
19JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Full-time97%86 snaps
18Diontae JohnsonWR · Full-time88%78 snaps
11Chase ClaypoolWR · Heavy rotation78%69 snaps
30James ConnerRB · Heavy rotation75%67 snaps
85Eric EbronTE · Heavy rotation55%49 snaps
89Vance McDonaldTE · Rotational45%40 snaps
13James WashingtonWR · Rotational31%28 snaps
24Benny SnellRB · Situational22%20 snaps
14Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Situational3%3 snaps
44Derek WattFB · Situational2%2 snaps
65Jerald HawkinsT · Situational2%2 snaps
38Jaylen SamuelsRB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Antoine BrooksDBIsaiah BuggsDEDanny IsidoraGJayrone ElliottOLBJoshua DobbsQBAnthony McFarlandRB
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Roethlisberger Aborted−22% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:54) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger Aborted. 53-M.Pouncey FUMBLES at PIT 22, touched at PIT 2, RECOVERED by CLE-42-K.Joseph at PIT -2. TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 14:54 · Steelers · 1st & 10 at PIT 22 · gained nothing · -8.03 EP · −22.0% win probability
192 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 206 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 206 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 89 yards from the PIT 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
206 of 206 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
206
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
44%
Yards
945
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR84+0.0483%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.3960%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.3160%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11-0.3927%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
206 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
206 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Browns6Steelers0
Touchdown2 plays
Browns7Steelers0
Intercepted8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 48
Browns13Steelers0
Browns14Steelers0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Steelers 46 to the Steelers 40
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Steelers 35
Browns20Steelers0
Browns21Steelers0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 35 to the Steelers 11
Intercepted5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 36
Browns27Steelers0
Browns28Steelers0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Steelers 15 to the Steelers 8
The period ended7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 36
2nd quarter60 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Steelers 37 to the Browns 38
Punt4 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Steelers 46 to the Browns 46
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 47 to the Steelers 39
Browns28Steelers6
Browns28Steelers7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Steelers 11 to the Browns 1
Browns34Steelers7
Browns35Steelers7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Browns 36 to the Steelers 7
Browns35Steelers10
Field goal8 plays, from the Steelers 32 to the Browns 31
3rd quarter46 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Steelers 46
Browns35Steelers16
Touchdown9 plays, from the Steelers 16 to the Browns 17
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 27
Browns35Steelers22
Browns35Steelers23
Touchdown13 plays, from the Steelers 32 to the Browns 5
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 27
The period ended4 plays, from the Steelers 37 to the Steelers 41
4th quarter56 plays
Punt2 plays
Browns41Steelers23
Browns42Steelers23
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Steelers 40
Browns42Steelers29
Touchdown6 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Browns 29
Browns45Steelers29
Field goal14 plays, from the Browns 35 to the Steelers 6
Intercepted5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 40
Browns48Steelers29
Field goal6 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 19
Browns48Steelers35
Browns48Steelers37
Touchdown10 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Browns 7
The period ended6 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
