2020 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 10, 2021 · Heinz Field

Cleveland BrownsWinner

Pittsburgh Steelers

PIT -5 upsetO 47.5 ✓Steelers closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cleveland Browns 48–37. Biggest swing: Q1 14:54, CLE +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 14:54CLE — PIT PIT ball · 1st & 10PIT 67%

(14:54) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger Aborted. 53-M.Pouncey FUMBLES at PIT 22, touched at PIT 2, RECOVERED by CLE-42-K.Joseph at PIT -2. TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 14:54CLE +17% win prob(14:54) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger Aborted. 53-M.Pouncey FUMBLES at PIT 22, touched at PIT 2, RECOVERED by CLE-42-K.Joseph at PIT -2. TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 2:01PIT +10% win prob(2:01) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 10:53CLE +9% win prob(10:53) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 24-B.Snell INTERCEPTED by 36-M.Stewart Jr. [42-K.Joseph] at PIT 49. 36-M.Stewart Jr. to PIT 46 for 3 yards (53-M.Pouncey).
Q1 · 9:55PIT +8% win prob(9:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 80-J.Landry for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Steelers
Offensive plays	62	87
Total yards	395	555 (edge)
Yards per play	6.4	6.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.24 (edge)	0.01
Success rate	44%	53% (edge)
Dropback rate	58%	82%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.39 (edge)	0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.41
Third downs	6/13	8/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	20	37 (edge)
Sacks taken	0	0
Turnovers	0 (edge)	5

Steelers outgained Browns 555–395 but lost the turnover battle 5–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

47/68, 501 yds, 4 TD, 4 INT

7.1 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

21/34, 263 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

14.3 expected points added · -6.7% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

18 att, 76 yds, 0 TD

-2.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Kareem HuntRB

8 att, 48 yds, 2 TD

2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

JuJu Smith-SchusterWR

13/19 for 157 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Diontae JohnsonWR

11/16 for 117 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · -0.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 22	2	0	0:14	Defensive touchdown
2	PIT	PIT 25	8	23	4:02	Interception
3	CLE	PIT 46	4	46	0:58	Touchdown
4	PIT	PIT 26	5	9	2:06	Punt
5	CLE	CLE 35	7	65	3:00	Touchdown
6	PIT	PIT 25	4	11	1:22	Interception
7	CLE	PIT 15	4	15	1:22	Touchdown
8	PIT	PIT 25	13	47	4:37	Punt
9	CLE	CLE 10	4	0	0:59	Punt
10	PIT	PIT 46	3	8	1:09	Interception
11	CLE	CLE 47	5	24	2:51	Punt
12	PIT	PIT 11	14	89	5:36	Touchdown
13	CLE	CLE 36	11	64	1:10	Touchdown
14	PIT	PIT 32	6	37	0:34	Turnover on downs
15	CLE	CLE 24	9	32	3:53	Punt
16	PIT	PIT 16	9	84	3:45	Touchdown
17	CLE	CLE 25	5	2	1:00	Punt
18	PIT	PIT 32	13	68	3:25	Touchdown
19	CLE	CLE 25	5	2	1:27	Punt
20	PIT	PIT 37	4	9	1:38	Punt
21	CLE	CLE 20	7	80	2:20	Touchdown
22	PIT	PIT 24	6	76	1:24	Touchdown
23	CLE	CLE 35	14	59	6:40	Turnover on downs
24	PIT	PIT 25	5	15	1:12	Interception
25	CLE	PIT 25	4	6	0:25	Turnover on downs
26	PIT	PIT 23	10	79	1:42	Touchdown
27	CLE	PIT 46	4	0	1:09	End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 89 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	21/34	263	3	0	0	14.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	18	76	4.2	0	-2.1
Kareem Hunt	8	48	6.0	2	2.9
Baker Mayfield	5	3	0.6	0	-2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jarvis Landry	5	8	92	1	24%	6.9
Nick Chubb	4	4	69	1	12%	5.9
Austin Hooper	7	11	46	1	32%	1.8
Rashard Higgins	2	7	28	0	21%	-1.0
Kareem Hunt	1	1	13	0	3%	1.3
Donovan Peoples-Jones	1	2	8	0	6%	-0.7
David Njoku	1	1	7	0	3%	0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
M.J. Stewart	10	0	1	1
B.J. Goodson	7	2	0	0
Robert Jackson	7	1	0	0
Terrance Mitchell	6	0	0	1
Ronnie Harrison	2	2	0	0
Malcolm Smith	3	1	0	0
Tavierre Thomas	2	2	0	0
Andrew Sendejo	2	2	0	1
D'Ernest Johnson	3	0	0	0
Jacob Phillips	3	0	0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	47/68	501	4	4	0	7.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	11	37	3.4	1	2.3
Benny Snell	2	13	6.5	0	0.4
Derek Watt	2	2	1.0	0	-1.2
Ben Roethlisberger	1	0	0.0	0	-8.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
JuJu Smith-Schuster	13	19	157	1	28%	8.5
Diontae Johnson	11	16	117	0	24%	-0.2
James Washington	5	6	72	0	9%	2.7
Eric Ebron	7	11	62	1	16%	-0.4
Chase Claypool	5	7	59	2	10%	4.8
James Conner	5	5	30	0	7%	2.9
Benny Snell	1	2	4	0	3%	-6.0
Vance McDonald	0	2	0	0	3%	-5.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Robert Spillane	5	3	0
Vince Williams	4	2	0
Steven Nelson	5	1	0
Terrell Edmunds	3	3	1
Minkah Fitzpatrick	3	2	0
Stephon Tuitt	2	2	0
Tyson Alualu	2	1	0
T.J. Watt	2	1	1
Maurkice Pouncey	1	1	0
Cassius Marsh	1	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -5
Closing total: 47.5
CLE moneyline: +210
PIT moneyline: -239

Steelers closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 85 — over by 37.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 34°F, wind 1 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: CLE 7 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Mike Tomlin

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.