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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 300s tick · as of 5:29 PM ET · 16 to play
Buffalo Bills 27, Colts 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 0:20, 1st and 5, on Josh Allen — 11.7 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:20 · 1st and 5
Josh Allen
Bills
(:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Bills closed -7, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Buffalo Bills 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:20, Bills +11.7% win probability on one snap.
11.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Gabe DavisBillsQ2 1:41(1:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 13-G.Davis ran ob at BUF 41 for 37 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
10.2pts
Philip RiversBillsQ4 0:04(:04) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep right (23-M.Hyde).
9.1pts
What separated them
Third down
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 9 of 17 on third down, against Bills at 2 of 9 on third down.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 11 chunk plays, against Bills at 7 chunk plays.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bills won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Colts at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Colts166 of 176 plays carry both curves
(:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +11.7 for BillsExpected points +1.75 for BillsThe model had Colts 6 points higher than the market did.play 82
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:20BUF +12% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:41BUF +10% win prob(1:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 13-G.Davis ran ob at BUF 41 for 37 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 0:04IND +9% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep right (23-M.Hyde).
4th · 6:20BUF +8% win prob(6:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 84-J.Doyle for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:02BUF +7% win prob(4:02) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 81-M.Alie-Cox to BUF 4 for 16 yards (23-M.Hyde, 21-J.Poyer).
4th · 0:50BUF +7% win prob(:50) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 14-Z.Pascal to BUF 46 for 17 yards (21-J.Poyer). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Allen's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 0:20 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:33Rodrigo Blankenship·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+33–0
4th11:36Zach Pascal·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers · two-point no good+616–24
4th8:13Tyler Bass·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+316–27
4th6:20Jack Doyle·27-yd TD catch27-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers · two-point good+824–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryBills
Colts5–2Bills
475Total yards397
6.2Yards per play6.8
40%Success rate50%
53%Third-down rate22%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
11Explosive plays7
29First downs21
0Sacks taken2
0Turnovers0
The read
Colts ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.20Colts: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.17Bills: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.32Colts: +0.32 expected points added per play
+0.27Bills: +0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Colts: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.05Bills: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 77 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Bills’s 58 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Colts 6, Bills 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's sack or hit rate, 2.1%, sat 12.5 points below their season number of 14.6% — they stayed blocked by 2.1 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2020 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 34 pts
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Bills2.1%
off script — stayed blocked · −12.5 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−2.08× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBUF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.1%, 12.5 points below their season mean of 14.6% and 2.1 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
72Braden SmithT · Every snap100%79 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Every snap100%79 snaps
64Mark GlowinskiG · Every snap100%79 snaps
78Ryan KellyC · Every snap99%78 snaps
65Jared VeldheerT · Every snap99%78 snaps
17Philip RiversQB · Full-time97%77 snaps
14Zach PascalWR · Full-time92%73 snaps
11Michael PittmanWR · Full-time91%72 snaps
84Jack DoyleTE · Heavy rotation71%56 snaps
13T.Y. HiltonWR · Heavy rotation71%56 snaps
28Jonathan TaylorRB · Heavy rotation59%47 snaps
21Nyheim HinesRB · Rotational41%32 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational33%26 snaps
80Trey BurtonTE · Situational24%19 snaps
16Ashton DulinWR · Situational11%9 snaps
99DeForest BucknerDT · Situational1%1 snap
90Grover StewartNT · Situational1%1 snap
3Rodrigo BlankenshipK · Situational1%1 snap
8Rigoberto SanchezP · Situational1%1 snap
46Luke RhodesLS · Situational1%1 snap
12DeMichael HarrisWR · Situational1%1 snap
63Danny PinterG · Situational1%1 snap
75Chaz GreenT · Situational1%1 snap
7Jacoby BrissettQB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Rock Ya-SinCBBen BanoguDEJacob EasonQBWill HoldenTNoah TogiaiTEDezmon PatmonWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Joey HuntCDarius AndersonRB
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
75Daryl WilliamsT · Every snap100%59 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%59 snaps
65Ike BoettgerG · Every snap100%59 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%59 snaps
60Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%59 snaps
76Jon FelicianoG · Every snap100%59 snaps
15John BrownWR · Full-time97%57 snaps
14Stefon DiggsWR · Full-time93%55 snaps
11Cole BeasleyWR · Heavy rotation69%41 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Heavy rotation68%40 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Heavy rotation66%39 snaps
13Gabriel DavisWR · Heavy rotation54%32 snaps
20Zack MossRB · Rotational34%20 snaps
85Lee SmithTE · Situational8%5 snaps
19Isaiah McKenzieWR · Situational7%4 snaps
86Reggie GilliamTE · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Jordan DeveyCTrent MurphyDETyrel DodsonMLBJake FrommQBT.J. YeldonRBTyler KroftTEDuke WilliamsWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Rivers pass+18% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:50) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 14-Z.Pascal to BUF 46 for 17 yards (21-J.Poyer). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 0:50 · Colts · 4th & 10 at IND 37 · gained 17 · +1.22 EP · +18.1% win probability
164 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 96 yards from the BUF 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
43%
Yards
871
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58+0.2169%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.2147%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR18+0.0594%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.2344%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Bills 39
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 3 to the Bills 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Colts3Bills0
Field goal8 plays, from the Colts 36 to the Bills 12
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Colts3Bills6
Colts3Bills7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 15 to the Colts 3
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 42 to the Bills 42
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Bills 13 to the Bills 18
Colts9Bills7
Colts10Bills7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Bills 1
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 6 to the Bills 15
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Colts 41 to the Bills 1
Colts10Bills13
Colts10Bills14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bills 4 to the Colts 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Colts10Bills17
Field goal10 plays, from the Bills 28 to the Colts 23
No good16 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Bills 15
The period ended7 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Bills 48
4th quarter57 plays
Colts10Bills23
Colts10Bills24
Touchdown4 plays, from the Colts 48 to the Colts 35
Colts16Bills24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Bills 9
Colts16Bills27
Field goal9 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Colts 36
Colts22Bills27
Colts24Bills27
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Bills 27
Punt12 plays, from the Bills 24 to the Colts 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Colts 14 to the Bills 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
