2020 Wild Card · Sat, Jan 9, 2021 · New Era Field

Indianapolis Colts

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -7 no coverO 50.5 ✓Bills closed -7, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Buffalo Bills 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:20, BUF +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:20IND — BUF BUF ball · 1st & 5BUF 69%

(:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:20BUF +12% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:41BUF +10% win prob(1:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 13-G.Davis ran ob at BUF 41 for 37 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 · 0:04IND +9% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep right (23-M.Hyde).
Q4 · 6:20BUF +8% win prob(6:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 84-J.Doyle for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Bills
Offensive plays	77	58
Total yards	475 (edge)	397
Yards per play	6.2	6.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.20 (edge)	0.17
Success rate	40%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	61%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.32 (edge)	0.27
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02 (edge)	-0.05
Third downs	9/17 (edge)	2/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	29 (edge)	21
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0	0

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

26/35, 324 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.0 expected points added · +12.7% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Philip RiversQB

27/46, 309 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

14.8 expected points added · -4.8% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

21 att, 78 yds, 1 TD

-3.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Nyheim Miller-HinesRB

6 att, 75 yds, 0 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

6/9 for 128 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 8.9 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

5/10 for 90 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 25	11	35	4:22	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 3	4	7	1:30	Punt
3	IND	IND 36	8	52	3:39	Turnover on downs
4	BUF	BUF 15	10	85	3:40	Touchdown
5	IND	IND 42	6	16	1:37	Punt
6	BUF	BUF 11	4	7	1:38	Punt
7	IND	IND 35	10	65	5:27	Touchdown
8	BUF	BUF 6	5	9	1:59	Punt
9	IND	IND 41	8	55	4:22	Turnover on downs
10	BUF	BUF 4	11	91	1:32	Touchdown
11	IND	IND 35	2	0	0:14	End of half
12	BUF	BUF 28	10	44	3:55	Turnover on downs
13	IND	IND 25	15	60	7:33	Turnover on downs
14	BUF	BUF 23	10	77	4:22	Touchdown
15	IND	IND 25	9	75	2:38	Touchdown
16	BUF	BUF 25	8	39	3:24	Turnover on downs
17	IND	IND 24	7	78	1:55	Touchdown
18	BUF	BUF 24	10	38	3:43	Punt
19	IND	IND 14	13	39	2:30	Turnover on downs

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 91 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	27/46	309	2	0	0	14.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	21	78	3.7	1	-3.7
Nyheim Miller-Hines	6	75	12.5	0	3.8
Michael Pittman	1	11	11.0	0	0.8
Jacoby Brissett	1	0	0.0	0	-0.3
Philip Rivers	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Pittman	5	10	90	0	23%	-0.1
Jack Doyle	7	9	70	1	21%	5.6
Zach Pascal	3	5	37	1	12%	3.7
Trey Burton	3	3	34	0	7%	4.3
T.Y. Hilton	2	5	32	0	12%	-0.2
Mo Alie-Cox	4	4	32	0	9%	3.2
Nyheim Miller-Hines	1	3	8	0	7%	0.8
Jonathan Taylor	2	4	6	0	9%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Shaquille Leonard	6	3	0.0	0
Julian Blackmon	5	0	0.0	0
Kenny Moore	4	1	0.0	0
Khari Willis	4	1	0.0	0
T.J. Carrie	2	2	0.0	0
Xavier Rhodes	2	1	0.0	1
Denico Autry	1	2	1.5	0
Tyquan Lewis	3	0	0.0	0
Bobby Okereke	2	1	0.0	0
Grover Stewart	2	0	0.0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	26/35	324	2	0	2	10.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Allen	11	54	4.9	1	1.4
Zack Moss	7	21	3.0	0	-2.3
Devin Singletary	3	21	7.0	0	1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	6	9	128	1	26%	8.9
Gabe Davis	4	4	85	0	12%	4.9
Cole Beasley	7	7	57	0	21%	2.7
Zack Moss	4	4	26	0	12%	2.1
Devin Singletary	3	3	23	0	9%	-0.8
Dawson Knox	2	3	5	1	9%	-0.1
John Brown	0	4	0	0	12%	-4.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Matt Milano	6	4	1
Jordan Poyer	7	2	0
Tremaine Edmunds	5	3	2
Tre'Davious White	5	2	1
Micah Hyde	4	1	3
Taron Johnson	4	1	0
Jaquan Johnson	1	2	0
Levi Wallace	2	0	0
Ed Oliver	2	0	0
Jerry Hughes	2	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -7
Closing total: 50.5
IND moneyline: +277
BUF moneyline: -325

Bills closed -7, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 51 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: 34°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: IND 6 days · BUF 6 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Sean McDermott