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Los Angeles Rams 30 at Seattle Seahawks 20. Final.
Seahawks -3 upsetO 42 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Wild Card
Los Angeles Rams 30, Seahawks 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 6:46, 2nd and 7, on Darious Williams — 23.4 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 6:46 · 2nd and 7
Darious Williams
Rams
(6:46) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 14-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 31-D.Williams at SEA 42. 31-D.Williams for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Seahawks closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Los Angeles Rams 30–20. Biggest swing: Q2 6:46, Rams +23.4% win probability on one snap.
23.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
DK MetcalfSeahawksQ2 3:53(3:53) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.5pts
Cam AkersRamsQ2 2:55(2:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 23-C.Akers to SEA 30 for 44 yards (37-Q.Diggs). Seattle challenged the legal forward pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
14.6pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.03 expected points per dropback, against Seahawks at -0.35 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Rams at 5 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Rams won this one — -0.06 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at -0.27 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Rams176 of 187 plays carry both curves
(6:46) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 14-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 31-D.Williams at SEA 42. 31-D.Williams for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −23.4 for SeahawksExpected points −9.07 for SeahawksModel and market agree here.play 62
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 6:46LA +23% win prob(6:46) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 14-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 31-D.Williams at SEA 42. 31-D.Williams for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:53SEA +17% win prob(3:53) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:55SEA +15% win prob(2:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 23-C.Akers to SEA 30 for 44 yards (37-Q.Diggs). Seattle challenged the legal forward pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
1st · 1:40LA +8% win prob(1:40) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 6 for -9 yards (99-A.Donald).
2nd · 10:06SEA +8% win prob(10:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 10-C.Kupp to SEA 28 for 44 yards (37-Q.Diggs). LA-73-D.Edwards was injured during the play.
2nd · 12:27SEA +8% win prob(12:27) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to SEA 49, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 29-D.Reed.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matt Gay's 39-yard field goal with 7:54 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:56Matt Gay·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+33–0
2nd10:34Jason Myers·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+33–3
2nd7:54Matt Gay·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaideLead never changed again+36–3
3rd13:50Jason Myers·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+320–13
4th11:37Matt Gay·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+323–13
4th4:52Robert Woods·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+730–13
4th2:34DK Metcalf·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+730–20
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categorySeahawks
Rams6–2Seahawks
335Total yards278
4.9Yards per play4.9
45%Success rate33%
20%Third-down rate14%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays8
16First downs11
3Sacks taken5
1Turnovers1
The read
Rams ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Rams: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.27Seahawks: −0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.03Rams: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.35Seahawks: −0.35 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Rams: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.14Seahawks: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 69 snaps at a 42% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 57 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Rams 5, Seahawks 2.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's pass rate over expected, −7.5 pts, sat 13.6 points below their season number of +6.2 pts — they ran more than the situation asked by 2.4 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2020 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
leaned — got home · +11.7 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.77× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Seahawks24.1%
leaned — got home · +9.2 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+1.68× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -7.5 pts, 13.6 points below their season mean of 6.2 pts and 2.4 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 5 inactive
66Austin BlytheC · Every snap100%71 snaps
63Austin CorbettG · Every snap100%71 snaps
79Rob HavensteinT · Every snap100%71 snaps
17Robert WoodsWR · Full-time97%69 snaps
77Andrew WhitworthT · Full-time92%65 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Full-time87%62 snaps
10Cooper KuppWR · Full-time86%61 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Heavy rotation79%56 snaps
23Cam AkersRB · Heavy rotation72%51 snaps
71Bobby EvansT · Heavy rotation65%46 snaps
81Gerald EverettTE · Heavy rotation63%45 snaps
11Josh ReynoldsWR · Heavy rotation59%42 snaps
73David EdwardsG · Rotational35%25 snaps
34Malcolm BrownRB · Rotational28%20 snaps
9John WolfordQB · Situational21%15 snaps
70Joseph NoteboomG · Situational8%6 snaps
82Johnny MundtTE · Situational4%3 snaps
14Nsimba WebsterWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 5
Brian AllenCBlake BortlesQBTremayne AnchrumTBrycen HopkinsTETrishton JacksonWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass−25% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:46) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 14-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 31-D.Williams at SEA 42. 31-D.Williams for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 6:46 · Seahawks · 2nd & 7 at SEA 47 · gained nothing · -9.07 EP · −25.4% win probability
174 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 187 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 76 yards from the SEA 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
41%
Yards
611
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.0760%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.0249%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR33-0.1130%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.3944%
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Rams 40
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 23
Rams3Seahawks0
Field goal12 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Seahawks 15
Punt7 plays
Punt4 plays
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter57 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 44 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 5 to the Rams 7
Rams3Seahawks3
Field goal5 plays, from the Seahawks 49 to the Rams 32
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Rams6Seahawks3
Field goal7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Seahawks 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
Rams12Seahawks3
Touchdown4 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 47
Rams13Seahawks3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.1 seconds
Rams13Seahawks9
Rams13Seahawks10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the Rams 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.7 seconds
Rams19Seahawks10
Rams20Seahawks10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Seahawks 5
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 34
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Rams 7 to the Rams 27
3rd quarter44 plays
Rams20Seahawks13
Field goal5 plays, from the Rams 41 to the Rams 34
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 41 to the Rams 45
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the Seahawks 44
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Seahawks 36
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 7 to the Rams 20
Punt9 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Seahawks 43
The period ended4 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Seahawks 42
4th quarter48 plays
Rams23Seahawks13
Field goal7 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Seahawks 18
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 34
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 29
Rams29Seahawks13
Rams30Seahawks13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 36 to the Seahawks 15
Rams30Seahawks19
Rams30Seahawks20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 24 to the Rams 12
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Seahawks 49 to the Seahawks 40
Turnover on downs5 plays
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
