2020 Wild Card · Sat, Jan 9, 2021 · Lumen Field

Los Angeles RamsWinner

Seattle Seahawks

SEA -3 upsetO 42 ✓Seahawks closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Los Angeles Rams 30–20. Biggest swing: Q2 6:46, LA +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 6:46LA — SEA SEA ball · 2nd & 7SEA 53%

(6:46) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 14-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 31-D.Williams at SEA 42. 31-D.Williams for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 6:46LA +23% win prob(6:46) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 14-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 31-D.Williams at SEA 42. 31-D.Williams for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 3:53SEA +17% win prob(3:53) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 2:55SEA +15% win prob(2:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 23-C.Akers to SEA 30 for 44 yards (37-Q.Diggs). Seattle challenged the legal forward pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
Q1 · 1:40LA +8% win prob(1:40) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 6 for -9 yards (99-A.Donald).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Seahawks
Offensive plays	69	57
Total yards	335 (edge)	278
Yards per play	4.9	4.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.06 (edge)	-0.27
Success rate	45% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	42%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.35
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13 (edge)	-0.14
Third downs	3/15 (edge)	2/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16 (edge)	11
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	5
Turnovers	1	1

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.27.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

11/27, 174 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-15.5 expected points added · -15.2% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Jared GoffQB

9/19, 155 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

1.8 expected points added · -12.2% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Cam AkersRB

28 att, 131 yds, 1 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Chris CarsonRB

16 att, 77 yds, 0 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

DK MetcalfWR

5/11 for 96 yds, 2 TD

42% of team targets · -5.0 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

4/9 for 78 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LA	LA 28	8	12	3:08	Punt
2	SEA	SEA 20	4	3	1:32	Punt
3	LA	LA 20	12	58	6:28	Turnover on downs
4	SEA	SEA 25	5	-4	2:57	Punt
5	LA	LA 41	4	0	0:38	Punt
6	SEA	SEA 20	5	27	1:54	Punt
7	LA	LA 5	4	2	1:04	Punt
8	SEA	SEA 49	5	19	1:50	Turnover on downs
9	LA	LA 25	7	54	2:38	Turnover on downs
10	SEA	SEA 25	4	22	1:11	Defensive touchdown
11	SEA	SEA 26	7	79	2:57	Touchdown
12	LA	LA 25	7	70	1:46	Touchdown
13	SEA	SEA 25	5	9	0:36	Punt
14	LA	LA 7	6	20	1:21	Fumble
15	SEA	LA 41	5	7	1:15	Turnover on downs
16	LA	LA 41	5	-4	1:29	Punt
17	SEA	SEA 26	6	18	2:25	Punt
18	LA	LA 20	4	4	1:26	Punt
19	SEA	SEA 35	4	1	1:02	Punt
20	LA	LA 7	6	13	2:02	Punt
21	SEA	SEA 31	7	13	3:41	Punt
22	LA	LA 30	9	52	5:07	Turnover on downs
23	SEA	SEA 25	5	19	2:12	Punt
24	LA	LA 20	4	9	2:19	Punt
25	LA	SEA 36	5	36	2:16	Touchdown
26	SEA	SEA 24	10	76	2:18	Touchdown
27	LA	SEA 49	5	9	0:33	Turnover on downs
28	SEA	SEA 40	4	-11	0:31	Turnover on downs
29	LA	SEA 29	2	0	1:24	End of game

0 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 79 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	9/19	155	1	0	2	1.8
John Wolford	3/6	29	0	0	1	-1.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Cam Akers	28	131	4.7	1	1.9
Malcolm Brown	9	30	3.3	0	-3.7
Jared Goff	4	4	1.0	0	-4.0
John Wolford	1	2	2.0	0	-0.3
Robert Woods	1	-3	-3.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	4	9	78	0	38%	2.7
Robert Woods	4	8	48	1	33%	1.2
Cam Akers	2	2	45	0	8%	2.7
Malcolm Brown	1	1	9	0	4%	0.7
Tyler Higbee	1	3	4	0	13%	-1.1
Gerald Everett	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Fuller	4	3	0.0	0	0
Troy Reeder	2	4	0.0	0	0
Darious Williams	3	1	0.0	1	1
Aaron Donald	3	0	2.0	0	0
A'Shawn Robinson	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jalen Ramsey	3	0	0.0	0	1
John Johnson	3	0	0.0	0	1
J.R. Reed	1	1	0.0	0	0
Troy Hill	2	0	0.0	0	0
Leonard Floyd	2	0	2.0	0	0

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	11/27	174	2	1	5	-15.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chris Carson	16	77	4.8	-1.3
Russell Wilson	4	50	12.5	2.9
Carlos Hyde	4	5	1.3	-1.6
David Moore	1	4	4.0	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DK Metcalf	5	11	96	2	42%	-5.0
Tyler Lockett	2	4	43	0	15%	1.5
Freddie Swain	1	1	28	0	4%	2.9
Chris Carson	1	2	5	0	8%	-2.2
David Moore	1	1	1	0	4%	-0.6
Will Dissly	1	2	1	0	8%	-1.2
Jacob Hollister	0	5	0	0	19%	-3.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bobby Wagner	10	5	1.0	0
Jordyn Brooks	5	3	0.0	0
Cedrick Lattimore	3	3	0.0	0
Jarran Reed	4	1	2.0	0
K.J. Wright	2	3	0.0	0
Jamal Adams	2	2	0.0	3
Quandre Diggs	3	1	0.0	0
Poona Ford	2	1	0.0	0
D.J. Reed	3	0	0.0	1
Carlos Dunlap	1	1	0.0	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -3
Closing total: 42
LA moneyline: +154
SEA moneyline: -172

Seahawks closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42; the game landed 50 — over by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lumen Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 39°F, wind 1 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: LA 6 days · SEA 6 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Pete Carroll

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.