2020 Wild Card · Sat, Jan 9, 2021 · FedExField

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

Washington Commanders

TB -10 no coverO 45 ✓Buccaneers closed -10, won by 8 — but didn't cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31–23. Biggest swing: Q3 2:26, WAS +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 2:26TB — WAS WAS ball · 3rd & 5TB 88%

(2:26) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke scrambles left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 2:26WAS +12% win prob(2:26) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke scrambles left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 5:02TB +7% win prob(5:02) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 23-S.Murphy-Bunting (51-K.Minter) at TB 42. 23-S.Murphy-Bunting to TB 42 for no gain (17-T.McLaurin).
Q3 · 6:03TB +6% win prob(6:03) 30-K.Vaughn left guard to WAS 38 for 6 yards (31-K.Curl, 94-D.Payne). FUMBLES (94-D.Payne), RECOVERED by WAS-53-J.Bostic at WAS 39.
Q3 · 2:14TB +5% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-T.Heinicke pass to 82-L.Thomas is complete. ATTEMPT FAILS.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Commanders
Offensive plays	70	70
Total yards	509 (edge)	375
Yards per play	7.3 (edge)	5.4
Expected points added / play	0.24 (edge)	0.02
Success rate	51% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	61%	76%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.45 (edge)	0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10 (edge)	-0.14
Third downs	6/13	7/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	8
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	23
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

22/40, 381 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

19.6 expected points added · -2.6% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

26/44, 306 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-0.6 expected points added · -0.9% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

19 att, 93 yds, 1 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

6 att, 46 yds, 1 TD

4.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

6/10 for 119 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 9.0 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Cam SimsWR

7/13 for 104 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 19	10	55	3:11	Turnover on downs
2	WAS	WAS 25	5	1	1:38	Punt
3	TB	TB 31	6	16	2:57	Punt
4	WAS	WAS 14	5	39	2:17	Interception
5	TB	TB 42	7	58	2:06	Touchdown
6	WAS	WAS 25	12	75	4:52	Touchdown
7	TB	TB 39	7	61	2:56	Touchdown
8	WAS	WAS 25	11	34	3:53	Punt
9	TB	TB 13	10	82	4:20	Turnover on downs
10	WAS	WAS 25	5	6	0:28	Punt
11	TB	TB 26	6	11	0:52	Punt
12	WAS	WAS 10	3	20	0:30	End of half
13	WAS	WAS 30	8	47	3:14	Turnover on downs
14	TB	TB 25	5	3	0:53	Punt
15	WAS	WAS 42	4	15	2:00	Punt
16	TB	TB 20	7	41	3:00	Fumble
17	WAS	WAS 39	8	47	3:39	Touchdown
18	TB	TB 25	10	55	3:42	Turnover on downs
19	WAS	WAS 25	5	1	0:59	Punt
20	TB	TB 31	8	69	3:22	Touchdown
21	WAS	WAS 25	13	75	4:20	Touchdown
22	TB	TB 23	8	58	2:02	Turnover on downs
23	WAS	WAS 25	7	15	0:58	Turnover on downs
24	TB	WAS 40	3	0	1:51	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 82 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	22/40	381	2	0	3	19.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Leonard Fournette	19	93	4.9	1	0.8
Antonio Brown	1	22	22.0	0	1.4
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	5	21	4.2	0	-5.6
Scott Miller	1	8	8.0	0	0.7
Tom Brady	3	-2	-0.7	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	6	10	119	0	26%	9.0
Cameron Brate	4	6	80	0	16%	6.7
Chris Godwin	5	12	79	1	32%	2.3
Antonio Brown	2	3	49	1	8%	4.1
Leonard Fournette	4	4	39	0	11%	3.1
Scott Miller	1	1	15	0	3%	2.3
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Rob Gronkowski	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Lavonte David	8	1	1.0	0	1
Carlton Davis	8	1	0.0	0	2
Jamel Dean	7	0	0.0	0	0
Kevin Minter	3	3	0.0	0	1
Antoine Winfield	6	0	0.0	0	0
Mike Edwards	3	1	0.0	0	1
Ndamukong Suh	1	2	0.0	0	0
Jason Pierre-Paul	1	1	0.0	0	1
Shaquil Barrett	1	1	0.0	0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	1	1	0.0	1	1

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	26/44	306	1	1	2	-0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	6	46	7.7	1	4.7
Antonio Gibson	14	31	2.2	0	-4.1
J.D. McKissic	2	5	2.5	1	1.8
Steven Sims	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cam Sims	7	13	104	0	32%	2.7
Terry McLaurin	6	7	75	0	17%	0.5
Logan Thomas	5	9	74	0	22%	-2.0
Steven Sims	3	4	33	1	10%	4.4
J.D. McKissic	2	3	8	0	7%	-0.9
Jeremy Sprinkle	1	1	8	0	2%	0.4
Antonio Gibson	2	3	4	0	7%	-1.4
Isaiah Wright	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jeremy Reaves	9	1	0.0	0
Cole Holcomb	5	2	0.0	0
Jon Bostic	4	3	0.0	1
Kamren Curl	3	3	0.0	0
Mychal Kendricks	1	5	0.0	0
Ronald Darby	2	3	0.0	1
Daron Payne	2	3	2.0	0
Montez Sweat	2	2	1.0	0
Jimmy Moreland	3	0	0.0	0
Kendall Fuller	3	0	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -10
Closing total: 45
TB moneyline: -456
WAS moneyline: +373

Buccaneers closed -10, won by 8 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45; the game landed 54 — over by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 40°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: TB 6 days · WAS 6 days
Coaches: Bruce Arians vs Ron Rivera