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DYNATYZE
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polling · 300s tick · as of 5:29 PM ET · 16 to play
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 at Washington Commanders 23. Final.
Buccaneers -10 no coverO 45 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Wild Card
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31, Commanders 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 2:26, 3rd and 5, on Taylor Heinicke — 12.3 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:26 · 3rd and 5
Taylor Heinicke
Commanders
(2:26) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke scrambles left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Buccaneers closed -10, won by 8 — but didn't cover.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31–23. Biggest swing: Q3 2:26, Commanders +12.3% win probability on one snap.
12.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Sean Murphy-BuntingBuccaneersQ1 5:02(5:02) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 23-S.Murphy-Bunting (51-K.Minter) at TB 42. 23-S.Murphy-Bunting to TB 42 for no gain (17-T.McLaurin).
6.7pts
Ke'Shawn VaughnCommandersQ3 6:03(6:03) 30-K.Vaughn left guard to WAS 38 for 6 yards (31-K.Curl, 94-D.Payne). FUMBLES (94-D.Payne), RECOVERED by WAS-53-J.Bostic at WAS 39.
6.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Buccaneers at 1 touchdown on 7 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.45 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at +0.08 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.24 expected points per snap, against Commanders at +0.02 expected points per snap.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Buccaneers178 of 188 plays carry both curves
(2:26) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke scrambles left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +12.3 for CommandersExpected points +2.50 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 20 points higher than the market did.play 128
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 2:26WAS +12% win prob(2:26) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke scrambles left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:02TB +7% win prob(5:02) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 23-S.Murphy-Bunting (51-K.Minter) at TB 42. 23-S.Murphy-Bunting to TB 42 for no gain (17-T.McLaurin).
3rd · 6:03TB +6% win prob(6:03) 30-K.Vaughn left guard to WAS 38 for 6 yards (31-K.Curl, 94-D.Payne). FUMBLES (94-D.Payne), RECOVERED by WAS-53-J.Bostic at WAS 39.
3rd · 2:14TB +5% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-T.Heinicke pass to 82-L.Thomas is complete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
1st · 2:58WAS +5% win prob(2:58) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 81-A.Brown for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 10:09WAS +5% win prob(10:09) 73-J.Haeg reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 14-C.Godwin for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ryan Succop's 29-yard field goal with 11:52 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:52Ryan Succop·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.TrinerLead never changed again+33–0
1st2:58Antonio Brown·36-yd TD catch36-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady · kick blocked by J.Reaves+69–0
4th4:57Steven Sims·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Taylor Heinickefrom Taylor Heinicke+728–23
4th2:54Ryan Succop·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+331–23
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryCommanders
Buccaneers5–3Commanders
509Total yards375
7.3Yards per play5.4
51%Success rate39%
46%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
10Explosive plays8
26First downs23
3Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Buccaneers ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.24Buccaneers: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.02Commanders: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.45Buccaneers: +0.45 expected points added per play
+0.08Commanders: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Buccaneers: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.14Commanders: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 70 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Commanders’s 70 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 7, Commanders 4.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2020 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 29 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Commanders16.3%
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 22.6 points below their season mean of 22.6% and 1.6 times their own 14.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
78Tristan WirfsT · Every snap100%73 snaps
74Ali MarpetG · Every snap100%73 snaps
66Ryan JensenC · Every snap100%73 snaps
76Donovan SmithT · Every snap100%73 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
14Chris GodwinWR · Full-time89%65 snaps
28Leonard FournetteRB · Full-time85%62 snaps
13Mike EvansWR · Full-time84%61 snaps
87Rob GronkowskiTE · Heavy rotation74%54 snaps
62Ted LarsenG · Heavy rotation52%38 snaps
65Alex CappaG · Rotational48%35 snaps
84Cameron BrateTE · Rotational48%35 snaps
81Antonio BrownWR · Rotational45%33 snaps
73Joe HaegT · Situational19%14 snaps
18Tyler JohnsonWR · Situational16%12 snaps
30Ke'Shawn VaughnRB · Situational16%12 snaps
10Scott MillerWR · Situational11%8 snaps
88Tanner HudsonTE · Situational8%6 snaps
85Jaydon MickensWR · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Herb MillerDBJeremiah LedbetterDTAaron StinnieGRyan GriffinQBLeSean McCoyRBAntony AuclairTEJustin WatsonWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Blaine GabbertQBRonald JonesRB
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
76Morgan MosesT · Every snap100%72 snaps
78Cornelius LucasT · Every snap100%72 snaps
75Brandon ScherffG · Every snap100%72 snaps
82Logan ThomasTE · Every snap100%72 snaps
71Wes SchweitzerG · Every snap100%72 snaps
73Chase RoullierC · Every snap100%72 snaps
4Taylor HeinickeQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
89Cam SimsWR · Every snap100%72 snaps
17Terry McLaurinWR · Full-time96%69 snaps
24Antonio GibsonRB · Heavy rotation54%39 snaps
41J.D. McKissicRB · Heavy rotation53%38 snaps
15Steven SimsWR · Rotational47%34 snaps
87Jeremy SprinkleTE · Rotational29%21 snaps
83Isaiah WrightWR · Situational17%12 snaps
85Marcus BaughTE · Situational3%2 snaps
80Dontrelle InmanWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Jordan KunaszykILBThomas DavisOLBAlex SmithQBLamar MillerRBDavid SteinmetzTAntonio Gandy-GoldenWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Heinicke scrambles+14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:26) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke scrambles left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 2:26 · Commanders · 3rd & 5 at TB 8 · gained 8 · +2.50 EP · +13.5% win probability
176 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 188 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 82 yards from the TB 13 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
42%
Yards
882
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.0578%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.2472%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.0350%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0773%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.3718%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.1940%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Buccaneers3Commanders0
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 19 to the Commanders 11
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 26
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 31 to the Buccaneers 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Commanders 14 to the Buccaneers 46
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Buccaneers9Commanders0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 42 to the Commanders 36
The period ended7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Buccaneers 21
2nd quarter53 plays
Buccaneers9Commanders6
Buccaneers9Commanders7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Buccaneers 19 to the Buccaneers 2
Buccaneers15Commanders7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 39 to the Commanders 27
Punt11 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Buccaneers 41
Buccaneers18Commanders7
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 13 to the Commanders 5
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 31
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 26 to the Buccaneers 39
The period ended4 plays, from the Commanders 10 to the Commanders 27
3rd quarter41 plays
Buccaneers18Commanders10
Field goal9 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Buccaneers 18
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 28
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 42 to the Commanders 47
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Commanders 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Buccaneers18Commanders16
Touchdown8 plays, from the Commanders 39 to the Buccaneers 7
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
The period ended7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Commanders 40
4th quarter52 plays
Buccaneers21Commanders16
Field goal4 plays, from the Commanders 23 to the Commanders 15
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 26
Buccaneers27Commanders16
Buccaneers28Commanders16
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 31 to the Commanders 3
Buccaneers28Commanders22
Buccaneers28Commanders23
Touchdown13 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Buccaneers 11
Buccaneers31Commanders23
Field goal11 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Commanders 19
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Buccaneers 49
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -10
Closing total
45
Buccaneers moneyline
-456
Commanders moneyline
+373
Buccaneers closed -10, won by 8 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 45; the game landed 54 — over by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 37°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 10 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Buccaneers 6 days · Commanders 6 days
Coaches
Bruce Arians vs Ron Rivera
1st · 9:30
WAS +5% win prob
(9:30) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin to TB 41 for 12 yards (23-R.Darby; 53-J.Bostic).
4th · 4:57WAS +4% win prob(4:57) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 15-S.Sims for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
